Found an interesting one, the original is somewhere in a private forum, I only managed to get in with a google translate link (or I'm not educated enough to use google properly
This is the big question isn’t it?
Is the investment opportunity in crypto over? Did you miss your chance to turn a few $1,000 into a few million? No yacht? No lambo?
While no one has a crystal ball, (myself included), I certainly do have a vested interest in the answer.
What we can do, is ask ourselves a few questions that will hopefully lead us to an educated outlook...
So let’s start with Question 1: Is the market small and growing, or large and slowing?
Right now the entire global market for the entire crypto space is around $350 Billion. Is that big? Small?
Well let’s put it into context…
Apple’s market cap alone is $998 billion. Amazon’s is $765 billion, and Walmart’s is $248 billion.
So the entire global crypto market is a little larger than Walmart… A single US Stock.
In other words, the crypto market is still incredibly small, but growing.
Question 2: Is the technology already mainstream?
Obviously the answer is no. We are still in the early adopter’s phase. Buying or using crypto now requires a learning-curve that only true fans of the technology are willing to accept.
When you can spend your crypto using your Visa card, we'll enter the "Whole Product Solution" phase.
Question 3: What is the “smart money” doing?
As we discussed yesterday, the “smart money” in Silicon Valley and Wall Street is just now coming to the table here in 2018.
They’re not sitting on the sidelines any more, and they’re not running away. They’re running towards this industry as fast as they can.
Question 4: Where is government policy and regulation headed?
For the past two years, this was my biggest concern… Would the authorities really allow the creation of an uncontrollable currency that competes with the Dollar?
Well here’s my conclusion…
The speed of innovation in this space is vastly out-pacing regulation. There are 3rd-generation applications being developed right now, and Congress still doesn’t really understand or respect Bitcoin or cryptocurrencies in general.
By the time they do, it will be too late.
The agencies who do understand this tech, namely the SEC and the CFTC, are cautious but supportive, which is an incredibly good sign.
The CFTC allowing futures exchanges to open in December 2017, was a massive step towards mainstream approval and integration.
Once the SEC approves ETF’s in the next 1-2 years, it will become a fully-integrated part of our financial fabric, and too late to stop.
Both agencies support the technology, and are focused on developing much needed regulatory policies in this space to protect consumers.
2017 was the peak of Crypto’s “wild west” days where anything and everything goes.
Regulation will provide the laws needed to allow mainstream adoption and investment.
Question 5: Is there a good chance that we’ll see another speculative bubble?
Yes. Without a doubt there will be another bubble that was even bigger than the record-breaker in 2017.
And that’s exactly what I’m hoping for.
Let’s take a look at Bitcoin’s brief history so far…
Bitcoin has gone through three major parabolic bull-runs and crashes already... Runs that had people declaring it was a mania on the way up, and that it was "dead" on the way down... Just like they last year when it topped $20,000.
The first run saw the price rise from $5.00, to over $200.
When it crashed back down to $70, the media declared that Bitcoin was dead.
A few months later in December of 2013, it hit another record-breaking high of $1,100...
Once again, the media declared that Bitcoin had no value and that it was dead as it crashed back down to $230 in 2015.
But if you listened to them, you lost out on the third run from $230, all the way to $20,000 in December of 2017. In fact, the first two runs are so small at this point, they barely show up on the charts.
So will there be another bubble that will make 2017 look like a bump in the road?
I think so.
Want a chance to make an insane amount of money when it happens?
The strategy is simple…
Have the balls to buy low, and the emotional maturity to sell high.
Executing this plan is easier said, than done when you’re in the moment, but if you have a plan and stick to it, you will provide yourself some guidelines that will allow you to make the right decisions, while saving you from your emotions.
Buying into the hype as Bitcoin hit’s a new high or $20,000? Wrong move.
Selling that Bitcoin three months later for $7,000? You don’t know what you’re doing, and didn’t have a plan. That’s called the “stupid tax”.
So what’s my conclusion?
In the long-term, we’re still early.
I believe the opportunity in the crypto market is just getting started, and I think we’re in the 2nd inning of a 9 inning ball game.
I believe that the flood of money that’s about to enter this market from Wall Street will take it to new highs in the coming year, and that we’ll see the market cap for crypto exceed $1 - $2 Trillion in the next 1-2 years.
And I believe that we’ll see the price of a single Bitcoin exceed $250,000 within the next five years.
Each of these buying manias will turn into a massive speculative bubble, followed by a bust with a 70-80% sell-off, just as we’ve seen it do in the previous cycles above.
Right now we're somewhere on the far right-side of this cycle after last year's bust. That's a good place to be.
These bubbles are the opportunity.
Buy low. Sell high. You win.
Now in the short-term, I have no idea what will happen…
For every trader who has a chart showing that we’ve bottomed and that the next bubble is about to begin…
These bubbles are the opportunity.
So what do you do?
Well we’re clearly no longer in record territory. The price of Bitcoin today is 60% down from it’s peak of $20,000, and has been as low as $6,200... A 70% drop.
That’s a pretty rocking discount.
Personally, I’m keeping my fingers crossed that it DOES continue to drop because I’m planning to play this market for the next 3-5 years. If I can buy a Bitcoin for $2,000 instead of $8,000, I’ll be over the moon.
Will I get that chance? No idea.
But I do think sitting on the side-lines right now is riskier than buying in.
I don’t try to trade the market, and I don’t really care about the short-term price. I simply buy what my budget allows, when it allows it.
And speaking of “budget”, I think it’s critically important to mention this…
Investing in the crypto markets is PURE speculation.
Speculation is risky, which means you should never invest more money than you can afford to lose.
My friends and I only invest what we call, “Vegas Money”... The money we’d be willing to take to Vegas and blow in a casino.
Do not put your life’s savings into crypto. Do not buy crypto with your credit card. Do not take a mortgage out on your house to buy crypto. Do not use leverage or margin, and do not gamble your future on crypto.
Have some “Vegas money” you can afford to lose by placing a bet on this industry?
Great… Bet that, and no more.
Which leads us to the next big question we need to answer…
Should you simply invest in Bitcoin, or should you invest in some of the 1,000+ Alt-coins”?
Which strategy would provide you with the biggest potential gains?
We’ll answer that question in my next post...
