The Bear Market is officially...OFF?!?

[RationalSpeculator]

I do believe we are headed to a downward trend, but people will have plenty of time to sell... I am constantly buying/selling with each swing, making 2-5% each time... This won't be a fast crash down so take your time if you decide to sell

smart man.

I fully agree, am doing the same. Buy and hold would have earned me around 500% with bitcoin this year, I am around 1000% by simply selling as it goes up and buying as it goes down.

What signals do you use to decide when a trend is about to change?

I am not using signals. I have a fixed allocation to bitcoins, say 20% of my portfolio, if bitcoins go up this 20% becomes say 25% of my portfolio and I sell 5% so it's back to 20%, and when it goes down it drops to say 18% of my portfolio, I buy btc as to bring it back up to 20% of my portfolio.

I explain more about my strategy in this thread:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=186617.msg1933492#msg1933492

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[axefrog]

Ah, that makes a lot of sense. I'm still getting a feel for a lot of this. I feel like I've gotten through the panic buy/sell phase, having lost a bit in the process of selling low and buying high a few times, and now the trends and changes are starting to feel a bit more normal/obvious. Your strategy sounds a lot less risky, and still quite lucrative.

[RationalSpeculator]

Ah, that makes a lot of sense. I'm still getting a feel for a lot of this. I feel like I've gotten through the panic buy/sell phase, having lost a bit in the process of selling low and buying high a few times, and now the trends and changes are starting to feel a bit more normal/obvious. Your strategy sounds a lot less risky, and still quite lucrative.

Great to hear it's useful for you. I also lost lots of money buying the high and selling the low. It took me 10 years to get some decent results, and I'm still learning.

[evolve]

Be careful catching those falling knives, guys.  It's really easy to get caught on the wrong side of the trade in this market.

[tvbcof]

Be careful catching those falling knives, guys.  It's really easy to get caught on the wrong side of the trade in this market.

I did.  Many times from mid 2011 to the bottom.  I was slashed up pretty good.  It theorized that all that grabbing would eventually have me buying at the bottom so I kept some power dry throughout and even had one last batch queued up but never deployed.  I always gave some odds that it would be one of the better financial moves of my lifetime and so far that looks on track to be the case.  At this point I'm just waiting for the next 'bubble' to start to genuinely capitalize though I did make myself whole fiat-wise at about 10x.  I've engineered things pretty well to never need to 'panic', but being netted to zero give extra psychological comfort to wait however many years it takes to find a good selling point, or even stand by in a complete failure of Bitcoin if that should occur.

[wopwop]

I'm buying, as a professional day trader I can see a HnS pattern that is bottoming and I see higher prices from here

Also, remember that we have a long-term potential with this disruptive technology that is about to change the world as we know it

[vokain]

I'm buying, as a professional day trader I can see a HnS pattern that is bottoming and I see higher prices from here

Also, remember that we have a long-term potential with this disruptive technology that is about to change the world as we know it

I don't see a reverse head and shoulders really, but maybe you're right

[samson]

I'm buying, as a professional day trader I can see a HnS pattern that is bottoming and I see higher prices from here

Also, remember that we have a long-term potential with this disruptive technology that is about to change the world as we know it

Good luck with that. Up, Up, Up ! 

[evolve]

I did.  Many times from mid 2011 to the bottom.

Me too.  I got shredded this year...I did alright on the way down in 2011, but got too cocky this year. I am still ahead, but just barely.

[N12]

I did.  Many times from mid 2011 to the bottom.

Me too.  I got shredded this year...I did alright on the way down in 2011, but got too cocky this year. I am still ahead, but just barely.

Sad to hear, particularly tragic when you wrongly stray from your initial view (I remember your "red candles still haunt my dreams" and have felt exactly the same for a long time).

[pikeadz]

as someone who bought in < $10/coin initially but currently mine my coins, I welcome this.  I also have no plans on cashing out anytime soon so the exchange rate is meaningless to me for a very long time.

[RationalSpeculator]

I did.  Many times from mid 2011 to the bottom.

Me too.  I got shredded this year...I did alright on the way down in 2011, but got too cocky this year. I am still ahead, but just barely.

I'm sorry

I am also taking a hit now. Losing 30% of a large investment in just 5 days, pfew. Been loading up on the way down, no rebound whatsoever :/

Double checking whether my strategy is the right one ...

[evolve]

It happens... I only have a token amount "invested" anyways, and risk is what makes trading fun (and its still cheapeer than vegas, lol    ).

[crazy_rabbit]

I did.  Many times from mid 2011 to the bottom.

Me too.  I got shredded this year...I did alright on the way down in 2011, but got too cocky this year. I am still ahead, but just barely.

I'm sorry

I am also taking a hit now. Losing 30% of a large investment in just 5 days, pfew. Been loading up on the way down, no rebound whatsoever :/

Double checking whether my strategy is the right one ...

yeah, I know the feeling.

[tvbcof]

I did.  Many times from mid 2011 to the bottom.

Me too.  I got shredded this year...I did alright on the way down in 2011, but got too cocky this year. I am still ahead, but just barely.

I only consider myself a 'trader' because I've shifted to the frequency domain.  In the time domain I would have to claim to have lost a huge amount of money (by my standards) by virtue of not cashing out a bunch during the big run-up.  I mean, the difference between buying and not selling is minimal.

In the frequency domain (buying low, selling high) I'm sitting pretty, but when one converts back to the time domain, one finds that years have passed.  Boring.  But I'd rather be bored than broke, and I always planned on spending many years with Bitcoin...if it lasts that long that is.

[PerfectAgent]

I'm just hoping that CampBX won't be on the fritz when the price bottoms out, cause I want to nab some cheap coins...

[mrbitbank]

Well I bought 500 btc in at $15 around November last year  saw them shoot up to $220 within a few months where I sold. All I have to say it was the best investment I ever made, once in a lifetime but what a roller coaster it was but I got to say I am as happy as a pig in shit now thinking how lucky I have been

[evolve]

I would have to claim to have lost a huge amount of money (by my standards) by virtue of not cashing out a bunch during the big run-up.

Missed potential profit doesn't really count as a loss, so I wouldn't worry about it too much.

[tokeweed]

My fiat is ready...

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=158739.msg1996777#msg1996777

how stupid do you feel right now?

[RationalSpeculator]

I would have to claim to have lost a huge amount of money (by my standards) by virtue of not cashing out a bunch during the big run-up.

Missed potential profit doesn't really count as a loss, so I wouldn't worry about it too much.

This is incorrect. There was no 'potential' profit, there was actual profit that was lost afterwards. Yes, that is a loss. Just like it was a gain before.