Global Crypto Bear Market

[d5000]

Is it really so?
I didn't check other coins since I'm not very interested in them (so bear with me). Nevertheless, even if it is, you shouldn't forget that Litecoin went down a lot slower than Bitcoin and I guess a lot slower than the rest of the pack.

Yes, a basic look at Coinmarketcap shows that Bitcoin and most other cryptocoins recovered more than 10 (and some more than 15%, like ETH) in the last 24 hours, while LTC got only ~5%.

It is surely related to the slower downtrend of LTC you mention. But the point is that I think LTC is used like a hedging vehicle for the case that Segwit2x fails so Litecoin could continue with the privilege to be the "biggest coin with SegWit". If this money goes out of LTC I think it will fall drastically - unless they really manage to get real-world adoption of Lightning, or at least atomic swaps, faster than BTC.

[Paycoinzzz]

Is it really so?
I didn't check other coins since I'm not very interested in them (so bear with me). Nevertheless, even if it is, you shouldn't forget that Litecoin went down a lot slower than Bitcoin and I guess a lot slower than the rest of the pack.

Yes, a basic look at Coinmarketcap shows that Bitcoin and most other cryptocoins recovered more than 10 (and some more than 15%, like ETH) in the last 24 hours, while LTC got only ~5%.

It is surely related to the slower downtrend of LTC you mention. But the point is that I think LTC is used like a hedging vehicle for the case that Segwit2x fails so Litecoin could continue with the privilege to be the "biggest coin with SegWit". If this money goes out of LTC I think it will fall drastically - unless they really manage to get real-world adoption of Lightning, or at least atomic swaps, faster than BTC.

Are your opinion LTC need have technology sending fast as DGB in present if want compete with BTC?
In few months ago after SegWit, the price of LTC just falldown to lowest price although we are know this happens very normal with altcoin have more speculator invest! But until July, LTC had prove it not an altcoin failure when SegWit and increasing to 0.02x BTC. In my opinion the real value of LTC need high than 0.015 BTC is good

[deisik]

Is it really so?
I didn't check other coins since I'm not very interested in them (so bear with me). Nevertheless, even if it is, you shouldn't forget that Litecoin went down a lot slower than Bitcoin and I guess a lot slower than the rest of the pack.

Yes, a basic look at Coinmarketcap shows that Bitcoin and most other cryptocoins recovered more than 10 (and some more than 15%, like ETH) in the last 24 hours, while LTC got only ~5%.

It is surely related to the slower downtrend of LTC you mention. But the point is that I think LTC is used like a hedging vehicle for the case that Segwit2x fails so Litecoin could continue with the privilege to be the "biggest coin with SegWit". If this money goes out of LTC I think it will fall drastically - unless they really manage to get real-world adoption of Lightning, or at least atomic swaps, faster than BTC

I certainly see your point

As well as where you likely fail in your reasoning. In short, you implicitly assume that Litecoin growth was specifically due to SegWit (and Lightning Network) activation, but, as to me, this is a false assumption (at least, for the most part). If it were so, we would see the Litecoin price spike even before SegWit activation or soon thereafter. But it didn't happen, and, in fact, it couldn't since SegWit (and still more Lightning Network) are pretty irrelevant and inconsequential for this coin as of yet. In my view, Litecoin rose to prominence, so to speak, not because of SegWit as such but rather because of its robust improvement model, i.e. the way the required changes get accepted without much ado, without needless and useless showdown. And it seems that Litecoin has been quickly rising these last hours

[FiendCoin]

Global Crypto Bear what? 

Pessimists wanna revise your predictions of doom and gloom (at least for Bitcoin)?

[exstasie]

Nekrobios, have you revised your outlook yet? I've been studying Wyckoff, and it seems like this could be what is known as "up thrust after distribution." This is characterized by weak shorts being squeezed and late buyers. Given the huge price/volume spike we saw the other week, I'm still open to the idea that the major buying climax has occurred, and that we are in a weak last wave up.

I'm not super confident in that analysis, but looking at traditional Wyckoff charts, it seems to fit very well.

[FiendCoin]

Nekrobios, have you revised your outlook yet? I've been studying Wyckoff, and it seems like this could be what is known as "up thrust after distribution." This is characterized by weak shorts being squeezed and late buyers. Given the huge price/volume spike we saw the other week, I'm still open to the idea that the major buying climax has occurred, and that we are in a weak last wave up.

I'm not super confident in that analysis, but looking at traditional Wyckoff charts, it seems to fit very well.

This shit again?

THERE IS NO BEAR MARKET!

[exstasie]

Nekrobios, have you revised your outlook yet? I've been studying Wyckoff, and it seems like this could be what is known as "up thrust after distribution." This is characterized by weak shorts being squeezed and late buyers. Given the huge price/volume spike we saw the other week, I'm still open to the idea that the major buying climax has occurred, and that we are in a weak last wave up.

I'm not super confident in that analysis, but looking at traditional Wyckoff charts, it seems to fit very well.

This shit again?

THERE IS NO BEAR MARKET!

This doesn't necessarily suggest a bear market. A Wyckoff cycle is characterized by mark-up (price rise), distribution, and then mark-down (correction). Even if the possibility above plays out, that doesn't suggest a bear market like we had in 2014. It could just as easily play out like the correction following the April 2013 cycle. Even though the lost gains from the April top felt like bearish price action, the reality is that it was a fairly sideways correction. That's still possible here, if there is a major top in the $3000s.

[Torque]

It's hard to say where this market is going to end up this year, or when the true top will be found. It appears going up is the only direction in the short term. Which certainly doesn't make me sad. 

Although, I'm not sure the market has much choice right now. All users and most traders pulled their coins off of exchanges before the fork. That created a very thin market. And with few coins on exchanges to short with, and very few sellers, that means the only direction the market can go is up. With the float being so thin, that means any push up is going to rip higher faster.

[fabiorem]

It's hard to say where this market is going to end up this year, or when the true top will be found. It appears going up is the only direction in the short term.

Although, I'm not sure the market has much choice right now. All users and most traders pulled their coins off of exchanges before the fork. That created a very thin market. And with few coins on exchanges to short with, and very few sellers, that means the only direction the market can go is up. With the float being so thin, that means any push up is going to rip higher faster.

Actually, there's no top, because: http://money.visualcapitalist.com/all-of-the-worlds-money-and-markets-in-one-visualization/

[deisik]

It's hard to say where this market is going to end up this year, or when the true top will be found. It appears going up is the only direction in the short term. Which certainly doesn't make me sad. 

Although, I'm not sure the market has much choice right now. All users and most traders pulled their coins off of exchanges before the fork. That created a very thin market. And with few coins on exchanges to short with, and very few sellers, that means the only direction the market can go is up. With the float being so thin, that means any push up is going to rip higher faster

I guess this is debatable

While some folks might have actually moved their coins from exchanges to local wallets whereas some others might have even sold their coins for fiat or converted them to altcoins, there should have been quite a few people who might have moved their bitcoins to exchanges specifically to receive BCC after a number of exchanges announced that they were going to credit Bitcoin Cash coins to their clients. Other than that, we should in fact expect market thinning and volatility escalating when the price surges. There is simply no other way around given Bitcoin speculative nature

[figmentofmyass]

Although, I'm not sure the market has much choice right now. All users and most traders pulled their coins off of exchanges before the fork. That created a very thin market. And with few coins on exchanges to short with, and very few sellers, that means the only direction the market can go is up. With the float being so thin, that means any push up is going to rip higher faster.

this makes a lot of sense. but now that the UASF split didn't happen, and the Bcash fork is done with and exchanges seem to have a good handle on it, do you think users/traders will move their coins back to the exchanges?

it seems like that huge spike in shorts on bitfinex was forced to close, whether by the market going up, or the exchange forcing them to close a hedge related to the Bcash payouts.

[FiendCoin]

Nekrobios, admit you were wrong, there is no bear market.

[ShroomsKit_Disgrace]

Just bumping this thread so noobs here can use Nekrobios' calls as a contraindicator.

You are very welcome. 

[d5000]

Nekrobios, admit you were wrong, there is no bear market.

While you're right that Bitcoin's price evolution looks still insanely bullish, most cryptocurrencies have lost value compared to BTC (with some exceptions, the biggest being Antshares/Neo), with respect to the time the OP was posted. Nobody is talking about a "Flippening" anymore.

As Bitcoin still leads the cryptocurrency world, it's true we cannot speak of a "crypto bear market", but we're still in an "altcoin bear market". The "bull market" is only lead by BTC, and its extremely good performance is most likely driven by the Segwit activation. So what I predicted in this post is still valid.

[FiendCoin]

Nekrobios, admit you were wrong, there is no bear market.

While you're right that Bitcoin's price evolution looks still insanely bullish, most cryptocurrencies have lost value compared to BTC (with some exceptions, the biggest being Antshares/Neo), with respect to the time the OP was posted. Nobody is talking about a "Flippening" anymore.

As Bitcoin still leads the cryptocurrency world, it's true we cannot speak of a "crypto bear market", but we're still in an "altcoin bear market". The "bull market" is only lead by BTC, and its extremely good performance is most likely driven by the Segwit activation. So what I predicted in this post is still valid.

You're wrong too. The crypto market is a ever growing and expanding market where more and more people around the world want a piece.

While some alts may be bubbly, Bitcoin is not, yet.

People are pumping alts because they want to see the success early BTC investors have had.

Is a crash possible? Sure. Is one Imminent? Not likely.

The crypto market is still bullish as hell.  ETH is almost $400, Monero is almost $150, LTC is $65 and others are up as well.

The question is, what happens when BTC does go into a bubble? Do alts follow as in 2013 or do they crash?

Bottomline, THERE IS NO BEAR MARKET!

[1Referee]

The question is, what happens when BTC does go into a bubble? Do alts follow as in 2013 or do they crash?

For sure. Don't forget that the higher Bitcoin's price is climbing up throughout the years, the more people will be pushed into the altcoin market due to the far lower unit prices. Instead of them investing $500 to get themselves 0.1BTC, they could buy thousands of alts for that same $500. In most cases, people with a lower overall starting capital will more likely prefer to get more coin quanitity for their bucks than just a tiny bit of a whole Bitcoin. On top of that, it gives them the believe that they might have bought themselves in the next best Bitcoin, where its price might explode in value as well. I personally don't add much value to any sort of altcoin, but I do like that crypto in general is experiencing a massive amount of growth lately.

[deisik]

The question is, what happens when BTC does go into a bubble? Do alts follow as in 2013 or do they crash?

For sure. Don't forget that the higher Bitcoin's price is climbing up throughout the years, the more people will be pushed into the altcoin market due to the far lower unit prices. Instead of them investing $500 to get themselves 0.1BTC, they could buy thousands of alts for that same $500. In most cases, people with a lower overall starting capital will more likely prefer to get more coin quanitity for their bucks than just a tiny bit of a whole Bitcoin. On top of that, it gives them the believe that they might have bought themselves in the next best Bitcoin, where its price might explode in value as well. I personally don't add much value to any sort of altcoin, but I do like that crypto in general is experiencing a massive amount of growth lately

You should follow the price of Litecoin

It is nearing 70 dollars per piece right now, not a far cry from 100 dollars where we could get overnight. I told you that I will let you know, and I certainly will. But once we reach a hundred dollar price tag things may change dramatically. This is kinda a magic number, and a lot of folks will see the light all of a sudden. Would you then reconsider your overall negative attitude toward altcoins in general and Litecoin in particular? If not, which price tag will make you do so?

[d5000]

You're wrong too. The crypto market is a ever growing and expanding market where more and more people around the world want a piece.

That is what people already thought in 2013

Some of your remarks are true, like that altcoins are more likely to lose more value in a coming all-cryptocurrency crash. But Bitcoin has also overheated, and "overheating" is all what bubbles are about. I think we are not far from a top that could last for more than half a year. And the most likely event that may trigger a bear market is the Segwit2x conflict in November.

Some of the indications why I think that Bitcoin is overheating can be read in this thread. (Caution, math inside!)

[FiendCoin]

You're wrong too. The crypto market is a ever growing and expanding market where more and more people around the world want a piece.

That is what people already thought in 2013

Some of your remarks are true, like that altcoins are more likely to lose more value in a coming all-cryptocurrency crash. But Bitcoin has also overheated, and "overheating" is all what bubbles are about. I think we are not far from a top that could last for more than half a year. And the most likely event that may trigger a bear market is the Segwit2x conflict in November.

Some of the indications why I think that Bitcoin is overheating can be read in this thread. (Caution, math inside!)

We've come along way since 2013. Lots of new money is pouring in from new sources. We're just starting. No doubt there will be more dips along way but after we'll keep reaching higher until we go exponential and parabolic. Then we'll have a crash 50-70% maybe. Homie, we got ALONG way to go to get there. Too many people still afraid, like yourself. Overheating? Gimme a break.

I do think we'll get a nice dip around November. It'll probably take a few weeks to recover, maybe a few months depends how bad it is. People like you will be saying the sky is falling but it'll just be a corrective dip that we'll recover from as we head 10k+.

But hey, keep with the fear and negativity, it just means we're heading higher. Don't get caught in a bear trap 

[pooya87]

You're wrong too. The crypto market is a ever growing and expanding market where more and more people around the world want a piece.

That is what people already thought in 2013

... and what you say is what people were thinking back in January 2017 when they were calling the rally to $1000+ as repetition of 2013 specially since it coincided with PBoC inspection of Chinese exchanges and the rise to the previous ATH. and look where we are now!

a couple of example topics from pages 30-40 of this board (8-9 months ago):
Welcome back 2014, and calling $600 bottom
Dead cat bounce by kwukduck and calling $500
article saying hold but at the same time comparing the rise to 2013
2017 the new 2013