Global Crypto Bear Market

[Paashaas]

Alt-coins are entering a global bear market but not Bitcoin, it will go up when we get Segwit.

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[Torque]

Not discounting OP's analysis, I believe it's insightful and good to be wary.

But to me it just doesn't "feel" like we're near a top yet.  No FOMO, and bearish/skeptical sentiment the whole time this has been climbing. No really hard crash yet. Average Joe still sitting things out.

And then I just keep looking at this:

https://gemini.com/auction-data/

Someone is still pulling mega amounts of bitcoin off daily auction with no slow down. So the question is, does someone know something?

It feels to me like someone wants to park major $$$ in bitcoin for a while. Possibly as a hedge?  Fear trade?

[Hhampuz]

Why I see a global crypto bear market coming:

1. Charting: Daily. The daily 20 SMA that has supported this entire uptrend was broken with yesterday's close. The move towards 3k was riddled with weakness that displayed itself in multiple bearish divergences on the daily RSI.
Weekly. On the weekly timeframe, whlie not yet confirmed, it is likely we will both have the first red candle and the first time closing below the upper Bollinger Band.

2. Altcoin and ICO bubble. When there are $150 million ICOs, there is nothing more to say. Looking at Ethereum, it has pierced its 300 low, an entirely new behaviour in its chart highly suggestive that its bubble has popped. We all know Bitcoin was bought to buy into altcoins. When the altcoin hype fades, so does demand for Bitcoin.

3. Psychologically, 3k is a round number and probably such a strong resistance that people will view it as unlikely to reach it again.

Update: Here is my comparison of 2013 vs 2017.

2013 bubble daily: https://i.imgur.com/ML9r1UH.png
2013 bubble weekly: https://i.imgur.com/ngS4fIk.png

2017 bubble daily: https://i.imgur.com/43qNlTn.png
2017 bubble weekly: https://i.imgur.com/QcieybK.png

I guess your crypto global bear market has been postponed  

I would not call it postponed. It is still looming in the background, any day now we are there (even though I already believe we have been for a while now). Not sure if you truly understand what it means to be in a bear market but what I'm seeing it's a given already. Not that I like it but it is what it is.

Alts are in a bubble, Bitcoin is not (yet). I have no doubt that alts will go bear sometime in the near future but Bitcoin will still be bull when that happens. The only thing, barring some catastrophic event, that could send Bitcoin bear in the near future would be a chain split.

So, keep hating on Bitcoin and I'll keep watching the price rise.

Now, when all this negative sentiment towards Bitcoin reverses and becomes enthusiasm, then I'll worry.

I'll agree that alts are, to some extent, in a bubble right now. But I'll have to also say that I believe BTC is in a small bubble as well.

Am I hating on Bitcoin? I can't see where I've done that, lol. But if you want to just throw stuff out there since you can't properly debate, I'll consider myself the winner already.

[rickadone]

Alt-coins are entering a global bear market but not Bitcoin, it will go up when we get Segwit.

I am praying for this to happen. Hopefully when scalability issue of bitcoin will be getting solved we can expect more number of new investors will be entering into bitcoin to take bitcoin prices in to new peak levels. Other than those scalability issues, I'm not finding any other things which are blocking bitcoin's progress for this time being.

There are many high-volume investors are just watching bitcoin on how it will be performing with its internal issues, if bitcoin will come out of those issues smoothly then definitely we can expect them to get into investing in large volumes.

[Hhampuz]

Alt-coins are entering a global bear market but not Bitcoin, it will go up when we get Segwit.

I am praying for this to happen. Hopefully when scalability issue of bitcoin will be getting solved we can expect more number of new investors will be entering into bitcoin to take bitcoin prices in to new peak levels. Other than those scalability issues, I'm not finding any other things which are blocking bitcoin's progress for this time being.

There are many high-volume investors are just watching bitcoin on how it will be performing with its internal issues, if bitcoin will come out of those issues smoothly then definitely we can expect them to get into investing in large volumes.

August 1st will probably become a bloodbath and I would not necessarily think that BTC will spike all of a sudden. The issue has not only been about scalabillity, there's also the issue of differing minds trying to pull bitcoin their own way without compromise. What happens on August 1st will probably show us more about ourselves and what the future holds. I'm not looking forward to it.

There is a reason why SegWit is not yet activated, there is also a reason why talks of a HF has been on the drapes. As always time will tell, but I'm not positive to what is about to go down.

[deisik]

Alt-coins are entering a global bear market but not Bitcoin, it will go up when we get Segwit.

I am praying for this to happen. Hopefully when scalability issue of bitcoin will be getting solved we can expect more number of new investors will be entering into bitcoin to take bitcoin prices in to new peak levels. Other than those scalability issues, I'm not finding any other things which are blocking bitcoin's progress for this time being.

Ultimately, this is irrelevant

That is, whether Bitcoin finally gets SegWit or not. If the scalability issues are successfully resolved without entering potentially fatal deadlocks and hitting severe bugs somewhere down the line, then Bitcoin will likely remain the top cryptocurrency with its price surging to new highs. If it doesn't make it and kicks the bucket in the process or just turns extremely poisonous, people will just switch to some other coin (those who won't leave for good). Indeed, there will be a period of total chaos and complete anarchy in the markets, but crypto is not going to die anyway

[N12]

2780 likely confirmed as the bull trap "return to normal" top following the 3k bubble top.

Price should pierce 2000 now.

[aso118]

2780 likely confirmed as the bull trap "return to normal" top following the 3k bubble top.

Price should pierce 2000 now.

If we see Bitcoin retracing to $2000, I wonder what will happen to altcoins. 
At the start of the year, Bitcoin accounted for 88% of the crypto market value; now it accounts for less than 40%.

[d5000]

I probably would agree with the analysis if it was done in (late) May. Both Bitcoin - and many altcoins even more - would be definitively in bubble territory if there was no fundamental advancement. A 10x price increase in a year looks ultra-bubblish if there is nothing that can explain it (and no, "exponential" and "bubble" does not mean 10x in a week - 2011/2013 will never happen again imo).

But at this moment I think the Segwit2x optimism - slowly building up - will retain the bear market a while, and even it's probable for me that we will enter another bullish leg and a new all time high. It is however possible that we every now and then will "crash" again in the 1800-2200 territory - e.g. when there are too aggressive Bitmain statements.

A massive altcoin selloff is likely at some point, but I think it will hit the Bitcoin price only for a short period, if everything on the "scaling agenda" plays out well.

[deisik]

2780 likely confirmed as the bull trap "return to normal" top following the 3k bubble top.

Price should pierce 2000 now.

If we see Bitcoin retracing to $2000, I wonder what will happen to altcoins. 
At the start of the year, Bitcoin accounted for 88% of the crypto market value; now it accounts for less than 40%

You are being fooled by the numbers which don't have any connection to reality

And let me guess, these percentages were calculated based on the market cap of the coins, right? If you want to evaluate how things actually stand, you should look at how much money has been poured into a certain coin in absolute values,not percentages. If Bitcoin received, say, 1 billion dollars while some shit coin only 1 million and Bitcoin market share dropped 2 times because of that (this is quite possible), then 1 billion dollars is still 1,000 times more than 1 million and no meddling and fiddling with numbers can change that

[N12]

Ethereum blew through its low from June 21st (excluding the GDAX $13 flash crash).

The Global Crypto Bear continues.

[Torque]

Ethereum blew through its low from June 21st (excluding the GDAX $13 flash crash).

The Global Crypto Bear continues.

Ethereum is going to get so rekt. Bitcoin not as much.

[d5000]

I'm pretty sure that most altcoins definitively have passed their highs (that won't be reached in 2017) and I expect some hard selloffs in the next weeks. There will be some that still resist a bit and are used for hedging (Litecoin and Nxt still are doing well, for example) but eventually they also will go down.

It seemed a bit strange that Ethereum failed to reach BTC's market cap being so close, I had expected at least a further attack from the ETH bulls. Now the "flippening" dream seems definitively over (Eth is straight going down to 50% of BTC's market cap again). Probably the flippening was only an excuse for a pump'n'dump game like we have seen it so many times.

BTC is going down a bit but without too much pressure - I expect a retest of the 2200 region next week.

[Torque]

It seemed a bit strange that Ethereum failed to reach BTC's market cap being so close, I had expected at least a further attack from the ETH bulls. Now the "flippening" dream seems definitively over (Eth is straight going down to 50% of BTC's market cap again). Probably the flippening was only an excuse for a pump'n'dump game like we have seen it so many times.

Of course it was. And it was a successful FUD campaign, I have to give the PnD'ers a slow clap for that.

When I started seeing newb crypto enthusiasts on youtube talking about "Buy Ethereum, and maybe a little Bitcoin [in that order]" I knew the absolute mind job of the "floppening" was complete. The pumpers managed to push newbs away from Bitcoin and toward a new tech that is still so nascent, prepubescent, and basically unproven at this point, with a market float about 500 times thinner than Bitcoin.

The fact that a small whale was able to crash ETH on a single exchange all the way down to $0.30 is not a surprise to me at all. Just wait until the mega whales go full on ape shit shorting against ETH across all the major exchanges, it'll probably see the single digits once again when the carnage is finally over.

[deisik]

I'm pretty sure that most altcoins definitively have passed their highs (that won't be reached in 2017) and I expect some hard selloffs in the next weeks. There will be some that still resist a bit and are used for hedging (Litecoin and Nxt still are doing well, for example) but eventually they also will go down

Things may be different this time

Basically, we have never been in this situation before (I refer to the threat of Bitcoin split), so we can't say for certain how things are going to evolve in the near future (and I guess no one can with any degree of certainty). If a massive exodus from Bitcoin starts for real, it is almost certain that most people will move to fiat (dollars or whatever), but some of them will likely decide to switch to altcoins. Personally, I stake at Litecoin. But since the real market for altcoins is very shallow (this has nothing to do with the so-called "market cap", just in case), even this money may suffice to boost prices of the altcoin that gets primarily chosen by the majority of these folks

[N12]

dETH is now over 50% deflated. Much more to go still.

Similarly with BTC. As can be easily observed, bear markets are healthy for Bitcoin dominance.

[freedomno1]

I'll lean towards the correction argument based on the current trending and that we will find a new stable point now as we trend down for the intermin transitional period to it. It may take some time for the market to find the bottom though.

[cafucafucafu]

dETH is now over 50% deflated. Much more to go still.

Similarly with BTC. As can be easily observed, bear markets are healthy for Bitcoin dominance.

Although I do not agree with your analysis on BTC, i do agree that ETH will adjust a ton in coming days/weeks.

I still struggle to understand why ETH was so close to breaknig the market cap of bitcoin in the first place when it's got so many problems with its blockchain. And it's not like the smart contracts that ETH has which is apparently its selling point has any real value than for ICOs...

I think that bitcoin will stabilize at somewhere in between $2200-2300. That is probably the most likely thing that will happen. So I expect a 10% adjustment in the coming weeks, until UASF in August. ETH will go back to $100, and bitcoin dominance will go >60% at LEAST.

[Wind_FURY]

Alt-coins are entering a global bear market but not Bitcoin, it will go up when we get Segwit.

Can you give us a more thorough explanation why you think so? Saying that Bitcoin will go up "because Segwit" is not enough. Do not forget, the UASF could get messy and could split the blockchain in 2. A dumping war might ensue bringing the price of Bitcoin down under $2000.

[deisik]

I still struggle to understand why ETH was so close to breaknig the market cap of bitcoin in the first place when it's got so many problems with its blockchain. And it's not like the smart contracts that ETH has which is apparently its selling point has any real value than for ICOs

Because market cap is used to fool people into thinking that a coin has any value (well, a high value). When a coin has around 80% of its total supply premined and which never entered circulation while the rest of circulation gets locked into various projects, it won't take a lot of effort and money to make the market cap as high as you please. I guess if Ethereum received even one tenth of liquidity that Bitcoin habitually handles, its market cap would be in the hundreds of billions already

This is to show how meaningless and irrelevant the market cap figures are