Avalon batch [3] countdown!

[TomUnderSea]

Hey guys how do we overclock the Avalon? Do we need extra cooling?

Turn the calendar to September of 2013.

[grue]

So I'm guessing they're starting batch 3 shipping by end of next week?

Not to burst your bubble but 2nd batch part one and part two have barely shipped. 

batch 2 has already shipped. there were many reports of delivery last week.

[overc]

Just received update newsletter. Check your mailbox guys.

What is the update?

Just checked my mailbox - nothing... :-(

[grue]

Just received update newsletter. Check your mailbox guys.

What is the update?

Just checked my mailbox - nothing... :-(

he's referring to the one from earlier today.

"Dued Update [Initial]‏"

[Wayne_Chang]

So I'm guessing they're starting batch 3 shipping by end of next week?

Not to burst your bubble but 2nd batch part one and part two have barely shipped. 

batch 2 has already shipped. there were many reports of delivery last week.

Who told you？I am batch# 2 customer but received nothing till now， include tracking #.

[SolarSilver]

batch 2 has already shipped. there were many reports of delivery last week.

Are you even a Batch #2 customer?

Only about 30 of the 600 systems have been received.

Where are all the others? None of the missing systems has been shipped out, at least without a working SMT line they had no capacity yet. None of the Batch #2.1 Walletbit customers has received even an order confirmation, let alone a tracking number.

Batch #2 has barely started to ship.

[btcsql]

batch 2 has already shipped. there were many reports of delivery last week.

Are you even a Batch #2 customer?

Only about 30 of the 600 systems have been received.

Where are all the others? None of the missing systems has been shipped out, at least without a working SMT line they had no capacity yet. None of the Batch #2.1 Walletbit customers has received even an order confirmation, let alone a tracking number.

Batch #2 has barely started to ship.

QFT!!

[ProfMac]

Correct, I will reformulate that: if batch #3 arrives with difficulty higher than lets say 35m, they won't even break-even IMO.

Even at 35 million they'd break even in 46 days (4-unit with extremely conservative power costs as well).

You are calculating break even in USD... but the Avalon B3 was purchased in BTC.  Looks like it would take about 90 days at 35M to break even with no power costs... those BTC, assuming the average difficultly over those 90 days is 35M (I bet it averages higher difficulty).  If there was no risk... it wouldn't be any fun eh?

Yea, if someone paid 101BTC for a rig + PSU + shipping, then it wouldn't break even until they got 101BTC back. How long does it take to make 101BTC at current projections? (85Gh/s)

The expected generation output, at 85000.0 Mhps, given difficulty of 15605632.6813, is 2.73920671912 BTC per day and 0.114133613296 BTC per hour.

[dogie]

Avalons were always sold with the price formula of a 30 day ROI on arrival, so 45-60 isn't THAT bad.

[jspielberg]

The difficulty will be higher after B2 completes and all of us get our B3s (~100THs).  Then there are the avalon chip sales following 4 to 8 weeks from now (200THs).

Current network hash power is around 120TH/s.  So.. we are looking at 2x difficulty with shipment of B2 and B3 ~ 240TH/s (Difficulty ~32M)... and then doubling again with Avalon chip sales not too long after ~480TH/s (difficulty 64M).

This is ignoring all of the competitors who won't be sitting still (like Asic Miner and bitfury).

I am hopeful that if difficulty can stay under 100M+ for 4 months, then our Batch3s can break even in 6 or 7 months. At 100M difficulty, an overclocked 4module B3  (~97GH/s) should return around .5 BTC a day.

I am not complaining... just stating facts as they have been communicated.
Using todays difficulty projections for our batch is misleading at best.

[TomUnderSea]

The difficulty will be higher after B2 completes and all of us get our B3s (~100THs).  Then there are the avalon chip sales following 4 to 8 weeks from now (200THs).

Current network hash power is around 120TH/s.  So.. we are looking at 2x difficulty with shipment of B2 and B3 ~ 240TH/s (Difficulty ~32M)... and then doubling again with Avalon chip sales not too long after ~480TH/s (difficulty 64M).

This is ignoring all of the competitors who won't be sitting still (like Asic Miner and bitfury).

I am hopeful that if difficulty can stay under 100M+ for 4 months, then our Batch3s can break even in 6 or 7 months. At 100M difficulty, an overclocked 4module B3  (~97GH/s) should return around .5 BTC a day.

I am not complaining... just stating facts as they have been communicated.
Using todays difficulty projections for our batch is misleading at best.

Thanks for the analysis.

From that I gather that the price for a not-yet delivered Avalon batch 3 machine is dropping pretty quickly.  This is doubly true for those other guys who are struggling to deliver product.

The question I ponder is what is the "floor" price for a mining rig?  Is it breaking even in 6 months or 2 years?  The build cost of a mining rig be low enough to support a reasonable break even point?

[dogie]

The difficulty will be higher after B2 completes and all of us get our B3s (~100THs).  Then there are the avalon chip sales following 4 to 8 weeks from now (200THs).

Current network hash power is around 120TH/s.  So.. we are looking at 2x difficulty with shipment of B2 and B3 ~ 240TH/s (Difficulty ~32M)... and then doubling again with Avalon chip sales not too long after ~480TH/s (difficulty 64M).

This is ignoring all of the competitors who won't be sitting still (like Asic Miner and bitfury).

I am hopeful that if difficulty can stay under 100M+ for 4 months, then our Batch3s can break even in 6 or 7 months. At 100M difficulty, an overclocked 4module B3  (~97GH/s) should return around .5 BTC a day.

I am not complaining... just stating facts as they have been communicated.
Using todays difficulty projections for our batch is misleading at best.

Sigh.... as Yifu himself said, chips don't just magically come online. They'll be staggered July-Dec

[600watt]

i sell my shares of avalon III group buys.

10 shares here: candoo project (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=169095.0)

20 shares (= 25 % of a 85GH/s avalon, 2weiX project): https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=158992.0

[grue]

batch 2 has already shipped. there were many reports of delivery last week.

Are you even a Batch #2 customer?

Only about 30 of the 600 systems have been received.

Where are all the others? None of the missing systems has been shipped out, at least without a working SMT line they had no capacity yet. None of the Batch #2.1 Walletbit customers has received even an order confirmation, let alone a tracking number.

Batch #2 has barely started to ship.

Ad hominem + strawman

Check the threads for avalon batch 2, there were reports of delivery. That's all I claimed. It's a stretch to say that no delivery implies no shipping.

[SolarSilver]

Ad hominem + strawman

What are you implying? I've stated multiple times I have received Batch #1 orders and that I have Batch #2 and Batch #3 orders. I'm a strawman for whom now?

Check the threads for avalon batch 2, there were reports of delivery. That's all I claimed. It's a stretch to say that no delivery implies no shipping.

No, you imply that Batch #2 has shipped which is plain wrong. About 30 machines of the 600 have been shipped. It's widely publicized that was a test of the new shipping channel.

In the last newsletter, Avalon (Yifu) states that their new SMT line came online only last weekend. They can produce at best parts for about 50 avalon units per day.

Monday to Wednesday is a public holiday in China right now, so don't expect an shipping this week.

So from next week on, you might see 50 units ship per day, that means it will take them at least 2 weeks to produce parts and assemble units for Batch #2. That means at least 3 more weeks until most of the Batch #2 units start to arrive.

Then we have to move to all the special cases in Batch #2, which have not been sorted out yet, probably all those who have an unconfirmed order from Walletbit in Batch #2 wave 1.

That will be another week of work, at least.

Then we have all the RMA issues that will pop up.

It's clear to say Batch #2 has NOT SHIPPED

[Surpbitcoin]

Batch 3,

3 orders

all 66XX

none shipped, no word from Avalon.

[Anenome5]

Batch 3,

3 orders

all 66XX

none shipped, no word from Avalon.

We had word on monday, actually. New SMT line is up and running, production is full steam ahead, expect shipment soon.

[rudrigorc2]

Batch 3,

3 orders

all 66XX

none shipped, no word from Avalon.

We had word on monday, actually. New SMT line is up and running, production is full steam ahead, expect shipment soon.

They say if anyone visit the factory to confirm this is true?

[lord]

Batch 3,

3 orders

all 66XX

none shipped, no word from Avalon.

We had word on monday, actually. New SMT line is up and running, production is full steam ahead, expect shipment soon.

may you give us any source for that please?

[grue]

No, you imply that Batch #2 has shipped which is plain wrong. About 30 machines of the 600 have been shipped. It's widely publicized that was a test of the new shipping channel.

>implying "arrived" == "shipped"
>implying people from feb18 aren't already getting their ASIC

In the last newsletter, Avalon (Yifu) states that their new SMT line came online only last weekend. They can produce at best parts for about 50 avalon units per day.

Monday to Wednesday is a public holiday in China right now, so don't expect an shipping this week.

I like how they just shipped on june the 10th, which is supposed to be a holiday.

So from next week on, you might see 50 units ship per day, that means it will take them at least 2 weeks to produce parts and assemble units for Batch #2. That means at least 3 more weeks until most of the Batch #2 units start to arrive.

where are you pulling the 50 units per day from?

Then we have to move to all the special cases in Batch #2, which have not been sorted out yet, probably all those who have an unconfirmed order from Walletbit in Batch #2 wave 1.

That will be another week of work, at least.

Why would that take a week?

Then we have all the RMA issues that will pop up.

It's clear to say Batch #2 has NOT SHIPPED

how does RMA issues imply "not shipped"? I'm not following your logic.