Avalon batch [3] countdown!

[GodfatherBond]

Hey crabm -- sorry batman, batch 2 has now (at least begun) shipping. So we can rejoice a bit.... yeeha!

I'm going to guess there won't be a huge delay between the shipping of batches 1 and 2, but on the down side, it's going to be overall a somewhat slow process to get all of batch 1 , then batch 2, shipped.

But all good. Super stoked. And I think lateness should be well within my personal acceptable range of 1/10th of late as BFL, so I'm happy.

Sweet!   Thanks for the update but how do you know?  Their site still says 'production' for Batch 2.

I assume you mean batches 2 & 3 above?

[5/16/2013 9:44:37 AM] Yifu Guo [USA]: they are starting to ship out now, i expect batch three to finish some time around june

Great if all are delivered by end of june!
btw from where this Yifu quote is ...irc?

[1715094766]

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[Matthew N. Wright]

Great if all are delivered by end of june!
btw from where this Yifu quote is ...irc?

Edit: I'll be migrating from Skype soon having learned recently that the government is *admittedly* logging everything without warrants. Buggy Pidgin, here we come.

[grue]

so batch 3 will be finished shipping sometime in june?

[kefky]

My orders status are still "processing".
Does anyone has anything else?

[Wayne_Chang]

My orders status are still "processing".
Does anyone has anything else?

Keep waiting. My batch #2 parts are still "processing".

[watertech666]

batch 2# is not reach yet.  How about batch 3#?  waiting waiting waiting till ngzhang make enough BTC
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=167726.msg2279573#msg2279573

[yocko06]

after speaking to yifu at the bitcoin conference I'm positive my batch 3 order will be shipping by the 19th of June.
I think my bfl orders may never come now.

[tiananmenqian]

after speaking to yifu at the bitcoin conference I'm positive my batch 3 order will be shipping by the 19th of June.
I think my bfl orders may never come now.

really?

[SolarSilver]

after speaking to yifu at the bitcoin conference I'm positive my batch 3 order will be shipping by the 19th of June.

Why the 19th of June?

I think my bfl orders may never come now.

Then get a refund and put your money to good use buy investing into something more useful

It amazes me that some people still keep clinging to those... you know that the equipment, if ever delivered late this summer will be not according to specs like power consumption.

You might as well put your money into one of the open hardware projects around the Avalon chips. Probably get your working equipment earlier than with BFL :-)

[watertech666]

don't be urgent to order chips!  Avalon batch 2# still not be dispatched. we shall see if  they are reliable.

[Rampion]

Batch #3 pricing:

The price of each unit is the current mining difficulty which at the time of writing, just got readjusted to about 6,695,826. We take that number and multiply it by two ( predicting the network speed will double. ) and calculate the return in a thirty day window, which is about 75 bitcoins.

Batch #3 expected delivery (May) and estimated difficulty at that time:

Two questions:

- can you guarantee batch #3 delivery not later than May?
- wouldn't the difficulty reach at least 15,000,000 once all your 1,500 units are deployed? Wouldn't be much higher if ASICminer/BFL customers also start deploying more units?

- Yes, but I think this question can be answered based on how fast we ship batch #2.
- not really, the current diff already includes majority of batch #1's hashing power. but I also don't believe diff will only be 10,000,000 but like I said, it should take at least 1 month of ROI, realistically best case 1 month, regular projection of 3 month, which is about diff 30,000,000 which is more reasonable if BFL ships.

Oh also, expect a newsletter soon.

I would personally be OK if Batch #3 arrives when difficulty is 30m (ROI in +3 months, but still the units would ROI), and very happy if it arrives around 20m (+2 months ROI and a little profit in the long term).

If it arrives with difficulty higher than lets say 35m, ROI won't happen IMO.

[WinTame2012]

Batch #3 pricing:

The price of each unit is the current mining difficulty which at the time of writing, just got readjusted to about 6,695,826. We take that number and multiply it by two ( predicting the network speed will double. ) and calculate the return in a thirty day window, which is about 75 bitcoins.

Batch #3 expected delivery (May) and estimated difficulty at that time:

Two questions:

- can you guarantee batch #3 delivery not later than May?
- wouldn't the difficulty reach at least 15,000,000 once all your 1,500 units are deployed? Wouldn't be much higher if ASICminer/BFL customers also start deploying more units?

- Yes, but I think this question can be answered based on how fast we ship batch #2.
- not really, the current diff already includes majority of batch #1's hashing power. but I also don't believe diff will only be 10,000,000 but like I said, it should take at least 1 month of ROI, realistically best case 1 month, regular projection of 3 month, which is about diff 30,000,000 which is more reasonable if BFL ships.

Oh also, expect a newsletter soon.

I would personally be OK if Batch #3 arrives when difficulty is 30m (ROI in +3 months, but still the units would ROI), and very happy if it arrives around 20m (+2 months ROI and a little profit in the long term).

If it arrives with difficulty higher than lets say 35m, ROI won't happen IMO.

ROI is http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Return_on_Investment. You want to use "break even" term instead to avoid confusion

[Rampion]

Batch #3 pricing:

The price of each unit is the current mining difficulty which at the time of writing, just got readjusted to about 6,695,826. We take that number and multiply it by two ( predicting the network speed will double. ) and calculate the return in a thirty day window, which is about 75 bitcoins.

Batch #3 expected delivery (May) and estimated difficulty at that time:

Two questions:

- can you guarantee batch #3 delivery not later than May?
- wouldn't the difficulty reach at least 15,000,000 once all your 1,500 units are deployed? Wouldn't be much higher if ASICminer/BFL customers also start deploying more units?

- Yes, but I think this question can be answered based on how fast we ship batch #2.
- not really, the current diff already includes majority of batch #1's hashing power. but I also don't believe diff will only be 10,000,000 but like I said, it should take at least 1 month of ROI, realistically best case 1 month, regular projection of 3 month, which is about diff 30,000,000 which is more reasonable if BFL ships.

Oh also, expect a newsletter soon.

I would personally be OK if Batch #3 arrives when difficulty is 30m (ROI in +3 months, but still the units would ROI), and very happy if it arrives around 20m (+2 months ROI and a little profit in the long term).

If it arrives with difficulty higher than lets say 35m, ROI won't happen IMO.

ROI is http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Return_on_Investment. You want to use "break even" term instead to avoid confusion

Correct, I will reformulate that: if batch #3 arrives with difficulty higher than lets say 35m, they won't even break-even IMO.

[Anenome5]

Correct, I will reformulate that: if batch #3 arrives with difficulty higher than lets say 35m, they won't even break-even IMO.

Even at 35 million they'd break even in 46 days (4-unit with extremely conservative power costs as well).

[jspielberg]

Correct, I will reformulate that: if batch #3 arrives with difficulty higher than lets say 35m, they won't even break-even IMO.

Even at 35 million they'd break even in 46 days (4-unit with extremely conservative power costs as well).

You are calculating break even in USD... but the Avalon B3 was purchased in BTC.  Looks like it would take about 90 days at 35M to break even with no power costs... those BTC, assuming the average difficultly over those 90 days is 35M (I bet it averages higher difficulty).  If there was no risk... it wouldn't be any fun eh?

[Matthew N. Wright]

Correct, I will reformulate that: if batch #3 arrives with difficulty higher than lets say 35m, they won't even break-even IMO.

Even at 35 million they'd break even in 46 days (4-unit with extremely conservative power costs as well).

You are calculating break even in USD... but the Avalon B3 was purchased in BTC.  Looks like it would take about 90 days at 35M to break even with no power costs... those BTC, assuming the average difficultly over those 90 days is 35M (I bet it averages higher difficulty).  If there was no risk... it wouldn't be any fun eh?

Yea, if someone paid 101BTC for a rig + PSU + shipping, then it wouldn't break even until they got 101BTC back. How long does it take to make 101BTC at current projections? (85Gh/s)

[BitAddict]

I take place here, waiting for my Avalon batch #3.

I start to be desesperate 

[jspielberg]

Correct, I will reformulate that: if batch #3 arrives with difficulty higher than lets say 35m, they won't even break-even IMO.

Even at 35 million they'd break even in 46 days (4-unit with extremely conservative power costs as well).

You are calculating break even in USD... but the Avalon B3 was purchased in BTC.  Looks like it would take about 90 days at 35M to break even with no power costs... those BTC, assuming the average difficultly over those 90 days is 35M (I bet it averages higher difficulty).  If there was no risk... it wouldn't be any fun eh?

Yea, if someone paid 101BTC for a rig + PSU + shipping, then it wouldn't break even until they got 101BTC back. How long does it take to make 101BTC at current projections? (85Gh/s)

I am being optimistic and thinking 90 days.... but that is partially wishful thinking and partially the fact that there are too many unknowns to model anything close to accurate (by me) more than 45 days out.

[pikeadz]

Correct, I will reformulate that: if batch #3 arrives with difficulty higher than lets say 35m, they won't even break-even IMO.

Even at 35 million they'd break even in 46 days (4-unit with extremely conservative power costs as well).

You are calculating break even in USD... but the Avalon B3 was purchased in BTC.  Looks like it would take about 90 days at 35M to break even with no power costs... those BTC, assuming the average difficultly over those 90 days is 35M (I bet it averages higher difficulty).  If there was no risk... it wouldn't be any fun eh?

Yea, if someone paid 101BTC for a rig + PSU + shipping, then it wouldn't break even until they got 101BTC back. How long does it take to make 101BTC at current projections? (85Gh/s)

About a month according to this: 

http://www.alloscomp.com/bitcoin/calculator 

But the difficulty will be higher once you get yours, so maybe a little longer.  Even if difficulty quadruples, so you pay it off after 4 months.  Everything else after that is profit.  4 months is not unreasonable to see a profit in any investment.  I personally think it will be closer to 2 months ROI assuming they start shipping batch 3s in June, right after batch 2.  That's just taking yifu at his word which I have no reason to doubt.

[BitAddict]

I'm going to donate the first 10BTC I mine, to bitcointalk forum, if I get my Avalon ASIC batch #3 before 30/6/2013. I will be really happy if I need to donate.

I hope Yifu read this!