Avalon batch [3] countdown!

[CoinHoarder]

FYI:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=261796

Avalon has turned into BFL.

"We're shipping next week honestly, for real, surely, we promise!" - Avalon

Two weeks later:

*only ships a few units just to "prove" they're shipping and to calm the masses*'

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[ryepdx]

As someone who's admittedly still waiting on a refund, I don't know if Avalon will continue to have these problems. Based on their recent statements, it sounds like they've figured out that they just can't handle direct consumer sales at this point in time. They've proved to be a decent vendor where bulk orders of raw chips are concerned. If they stop offering low-cost, complete miners in small quantities, then I'll say they've learned. If they hire on a bunch of people to handle customer relations, then I'll say they've learned. I'd like to think they'll learn, but time will tell.

Fact is that Yifu and his compatriots are engineers through and through. It's possible (though very rare) for engineers to handle customer relations and business operations as well as the technical side of things. If Yifu's crew is running tests against the live network against his wishes, and given that Yifu and co. have been pretty bad at communicating on a regular basis, then hopefully he learns from this and gets someone else to handle those functions. If you can't honestly assess yourself and hire people who are good at what you are bad at, you won't be in business very long.

I guess I feel a little sympathy, despite the fact that Bitsyncom has 101 BTC that they still owe me. My last job was in a cubicle at WebMD's Portland office. Before that I'd been in a small startup consisting of four people, myself included. I wasn't used to communicating regularly with wide arrays of people. Before, the friction around communicating was turning to the guy next to me, saying a couple words, and then continuing on with whatever I was working at. At WebMD, I was suddenly expected to write multiple emails to a variety of people throughout the day, keeping anyone who might be interested in anything I was working on abreast of my progress.

My natural bent was to just put my head down and code, and in my first couple months I sent almost no emails. I was an informational black hole. I got much better in the year and four months I was there, but it was a pretty excruciating learning process that really broke me down and never quite built me up again. So that's probably a big part of why I'm willing to give Avalon a bit of a "bye" on their poor communication this round. I understand poor communication. I was there just last year.

That said, I also understand why everyone's so pissed off. If people start breaking out torches and pitchforks at this point, though, I won't be among the mob. Maybe later down the line, if Avalon messes things up much more. And I certainly won't be among Avalon's direct-to-consumer customers in the future, though I would probably buy bulk components from them. They've proven themselves to be engineers, and I'll expect them to act like engineers until they take some steps to shore up their weak spots.

[ibminer]

got 3 today.  Here's two of them.

http://imgur.com/zKEOhjT
http://imgur.com/jB6UpMz

and one of them hashing:

http://eligius.st/~wizkid057/newstats/userstats.php/1Lmuvne9YdNhuEHoW74awyRYbi9GbR3vAo

Thought about selling them but highest offer was 130.  No thanks.

You'll have made a total of 130BTC sometime early 2016.. and by then that 82GH will only be bringing in something around 50 satoshis a day.

I would have taken 130BTC.

On paper, that's how it is. But on paper he should have gotten his avalons 2 months ago. On the other hand, on paper, if there's one thing you should pay attention to and consider (IMHO) is this:

Future Proof
The Avalon’s components can be upgraded and swapped out as future parts are released, like a normal PC. You are not forced to switch entire systems.

This reads on their web page. I think that's really on black and white there. Maybe you don't need to get the ROI, maybe you get some BTC for upgrade modules that will get you your ROI. Who knows, but that's what's on paper.

But things rarely go like it stands on paper. It works both ways.

My concern here would be that the 4 modules haven't shipped, which may indicate a problem with the 4 modules... so if that is true, the 3 module avalons that shipped may not even be upgradable to 4 without a new board?  Isn't it the same board used in the 3 module and 4 modules?   I may be talking a little over my head at this point, and without much information from the source (Avalon)... but speculation is what you get when you don't communicate  

[louhija]

My concern here would be that the 4 modules haven't shipped, which may indicate a problem with the 4 modules... so if that is true, the 3 module avalons that shipped may not even be upgradable to 4 without a new board?  Isn't it the same board used in the 3 module and 4 modules?   I may be talking a little over my head at this point, and without much information from the source (Avalon)... but speculation is what you get when you don't communicate  

I was not aware of that. It sounds odd, yes. It could be logistical thing though. Factories I used to work in were sometimes very anal about priorities. Maybe they assemble 3 modules to all and then start going through who wanted 4. It sounds stupid, but you wouldn't believe the stupid shit going on in these hierarchical places with strict protocols.

But your guess is as good as mine.

[pikeadz]

got 3 today.  Here's two of them.

http://imgur.com/zKEOhjT
http://imgur.com/jB6UpMz

and one of them hashing:

http://eligius.st/~wizkid057/newstats/userstats.php/1Lmuvne9YdNhuEHoW74awyRYbi9GbR3vAo

Thought about selling them but highest offer was 130.  No thanks.

You'll have made a total of 130BTC sometime early 2016.. and by then that 82GH will only be bringing in something around 50 satoshis a day.

I would have taken 130BTC.

You have greater faith in all the vaporware and scamware companies than I .  I will continue to hash and take my chances which has paid off for me thus far.

[akhentek]

Hi everyone,

I have been lurking and reading the forums for years, just never got an account until recently.  

I have a 3 module batch 3 that has not shipped.  I don't believe 3 or 4 modules are the problem.  

I have orders with Avalon, BFL and KnC.  So far Avalon and BFL are epic fails.  KnC has not yet missed a deadline but they already get top spot for customer support and response time to any and all inquiries.

Wish my first post here would have been about how much awesome this new Avalon was...  In the meantime I will continue mining LTC with my GPUs and hopefully and ASIC of some kind will land in the next 3 months.

Will be keeping a close eye on this thread and adding more content now that I finally have an account.

Hoping something changes quickly for all of us who are in this boat.

A.

[Minor Miner]

Hi everyone,
I have been lurking and reading the forums for years, just never got an account until recently.  
I have a 3 module batch 3 that has not shipped.  I don't believe 3 or 4 modules are the problem.  
I have orders with Avalon, BFL and KnC.  So far Avalon and BFL are epic fails.  KnC has not yet missed a deadline but they already get top spot for customer support and response time to any and all inquiries.
Wish my first post here would have been about how much awesome this new Avalon was...  In the meantime I will continue mining LTC with my GPUs and hopefully and ASIC of some kind will land in the next 3 months.
Will be keeping a close eye on this thread and adding more content now that I finally have an account.
Hoping something changes quickly for all of us who are in this boat.
A.

KnC?   Real responsive while collecting pre-order money?   Interesting.   I do not think that is actually a reason to give people your money.    Trendon and Tom were quite responsive for a long time too.   Not so much later.

[pikeadz]

Hi everyone,
I have been lurking and reading the forums for years, just never got an account until recently.  
I have a 3 module batch 3 that has not shipped.  I don't believe 3 or 4 modules are the problem.  
I have orders with Avalon, BFL and KnC.  So far Avalon and BFL are epic fails.  KnC has not yet missed a deadline but they already get top spot for customer support and response time to any and all inquiries.
Wish my first post here would have been about how much awesome this new Avalon was...  In the meantime I will continue mining LTC with my GPUs and hopefully and ASIC of some kind will land in the next 3 months.
Will be keeping a close eye on this thread and adding more content now that I finally have an account.
Hoping something changes quickly for all of us who are in this boat.
A.

KnC?   Real responsive while collecting pre-order money?   Interesting.   I do not think that is actually a reason to give people your money.    Trendon and Tom were quite responsive for a long time too.   Not so much later.

Exactly.  KNC has nothing to show for all the promises yet.  Even BFL has more to show, despite not being able to ship en masse. 

Lots of FUD being spread right now.  Oh noes the sky is falling!  Sell all your Avalons to me for 50 BTC!

[yeemartin]

Hi everyone,

I have been lurking and reading the forums for years, just never got an account until recently.  

I have a 3 module batch 3 that has not shipped.  I don't believe 3 or 4 modules are the problem.  

I have orders with Avalon, BFL and KnC.  So far Avalon and BFL are epic fails.  KnC has not yet missed a deadline but they already get top spot for customer support and response time to any and all inquiries.

Wish my first post here would have been about how much awesome this new Avalon was...  In the meantime I will continue mining LTC with my GPUs and hopefully and ASIC of some kind will land in the next 3 months.

Will be keeping a close eye on this thread and adding more content now that I finally have an account.

Hoping something changes quickly for all of us who are in this boat.

A.

I guess your 3 module doesn't include the PSU. It seems they only ships 3 modules with PSU.

[akhentek]

I guess your 3 module doesn't include the PSU. It seems they only ships 3 modules with PSU.
[/quote]

That's correct.  Wish I had ordered with PSU and not worried about "customs issues"



 

[Syke]

I cant believe it. They shipped the chips first. We will never reach ROI now.

For batch-3 devices that are delivered soon, you're looking at a 3-4 month ROI. Not bad, but not great. Any significant delay will kill that ROI as lots of hashing power is coming online late this year.

[monkee]

My concern here would be that the 4 modules haven't shipped, which may indicate a problem with the 4 modules... so if that is true, the 3 module avalons that shipped may not even be upgradable to 4 without a new board?  Isn't it the same board used in the 3 module and 4 modules?   I may be talking a little over my head at this point, and without much information from the source (Avalon)... but speculation is what you get when you don't communicate  

i thought this as well but some people with multiple avalons have frankensteined them together because of failures.  i believe i've read about at least one person running 4 modules so i think the problem is something else

still no word on my 4 module order 46xx, obviously

godspeed yifu, we appreciate your hard work and wait with anticipation

[josh_nc]

I cant believe it. They shipped the chips first. We will never reach ROI now.

For batch-3 devices that are delivered soon, you're looking at a 3-4 month ROI. Not bad, but not great. Any significant delay will kill that ROI as lots of hashing power is coming online late this year.

My calculations are not as optimistic. If I start mining with my 4-mod Avalon by Aug 5th the most I'll EVER get is approx 80-85 BTCs. I paid 103 BTCs so that means I got screwed by a lot of BTCs. Initially, long, long ago, I expected to make at least 2x what I paid for in BTCs so I could continue re-investing and still make something of a profit. That's all gone, particularly since the BTC-to-Fiat is not going anywhere up! Not sure whether to call this a Ponzi or a pyramid scheme. I got screwed with either.

[pikeadz]

Lots of FUD being spread right now.  Oh noes the sky is falling!  Sell all your Avalons to me for 50 BTC!

You are the one claiming 130 BTC for a an Avalon is a low ball offer.  If you do a calculation based on the difficulty and the recent increases and take into account the ancillary expenses and hardware failure rate you can quickly see an Avalon is worth much closer to 50 BTC than 130 BTC.  People are buying based on emotion and what they heard someone paid a few weeks ago.  Every time I do a calculation and show how much an Avalon is worth all the people with these inflated price claims never answer.  People also do not realize how fast these things depreciate.  A 3-module Avalon is worth about 60 BTC at the moment.  Another 10 days or so it will be down to about the 50 BTC because it is currently losing over 1 BTC in value every day.

Show me where I said 130 was "lowball."  I simply did not accept the offer because I believe I will be able to mine more than that during its useful life.  Do you understand the difference?  It is a gamble, but the stars must align perfectly for the amount of hashing power to form which would prevent that from happening.  

Also, you believe miners are valued based on how many bitcoins they've already mined, rather than how many they will mine in the future.  Let me know how your search for an Avalon goes in 10 days when you are offering people 50 BTC.  

[Anenome5]

I cant believe it. They shipped the chips first. We will never reach ROI now.

For batch-3 devices that are delivered soon, you're looking at a 3-4 month ROI. Not bad, but not great. Any significant delay will kill that ROI as lots of hashing power is coming online late this year.

My calculations are not as optimistic. If I start mining with my 4-mod Avalon by Aug 5th the most I'll EVER get is approx 80-85 BTCs. I paid 103 BTCs so that means I got screwed by a lot of BTCs. Initially, long, long ago, I expected to make at least 2x what I paid for in BTCs so I could continue re-investing and still make something of a profit. That's all gone, particularly since the BTC-to-Fiat is not going anywhere up! Not sure whether to call this a Ponzi or a pyramid scheme. I got screwed with either.

How come you didn't ask for a refund then?

[CoinHoarder]

How come you didn't ask for a refund then?

Because they said they were shipping two weeks ago and it would have easily made ROI and a little profit if they delivered it when they said they would?

[akhentek]

Show me where I said 130 was "lowball."  I simply did not accept the offer because I believe I will be able to mine more than that during its useful life.  Do you understand the difference?  It is a gamble, but the stars must align perfectly for the amount of hashing power to form which would prevent that from happening.  

Also, you believe miners are valued based on how many bitcoins they've already mined, rather than how many they will mine in the future.  Let me know how your search for an Avalon goes in 10 days when you are offering people 50 BTC.  
[/quote]


Sincerely hope you are right.  I'm pretty bummed.

[CoinHoarder]

what are ppl planning on doing with them after the difficulty makes them worthless next year?

Mine SHA256 ALT coins and pray they gain traction. 

[Anenome5]

what are ppl planning on doing with them after the difficulty makes them worthless next this year?

There, that's more like it

I hadn't really thought about it, but I figured the best thing would be if the exchange rate improves, that way you can run it profitably much longer. Alternate plan is to find some friendly business office with static electricity costs and a spare room and pay a nominal fee to them in bitcoin

[Anenome5]

what are ppl planning on doing with them after the difficulty makes them worthless next year?

Mine SHA256 ALT coins and pray they gain traction. 

I should think most of the SHA256 ALT coins can be successfully 51% attacked and thus destroyed with these Avalons. I expect the alt-coins to gravitate to Scrypt simply out of sheer survival.