Diff contest Aug 9 to Aug?.Prize a black sealed Trezor wallet. Picks are closed.

[QuintLeo]

+2.5 = alh

Thanks again for running this Phil. I thought more hash had been shifted to BCH, but looks like not.

 Mining BCH has been NEGATIVE profitability 'till very recently, as they took too long to get the diff down and the price was too low.
 Recent price jump is turning that around.

 I'm sitting this contest round out as I don't have any interest in the Trezor.

[philipma1957]

New contest picks  to end at block 516.

Experimental Image Contribution:



Let's see how this holds up over time.
If it works well enough, feel free to quote it Phil.

If you are overseas  I will spring for the shipping of the Trezor


-3.0 = isoneguy

-1.3 = VRobb

-1.2 = philipma1957  >>>>  I always pick this number

-1.0 = Last of the V8s

-0.2 = keystroke

0.1 = tomintx
0.2 = mocacinno

0.9 = buwaytress
1.8 = eDonkey

2.2 = vapourminer
2.5 = alh
3.2 = Psi

3.6 = Landy1264
3.7 = pusttiu
5.0 = leowonderful

And look at the diff the gray line has always been under so were  pretty much negative but at the moment it has shot way up!

While I have participated in these before, I have lost my sense of how the range works when we are into negative territory. If as an example, what would I choose for the following:

Estimated Next Difficulty:    922,529,973,147 (-0.08%)

Would that be -.1% -or- 0.0% ?

I'll wait a bit to make a guess, but thought I would ask now, since it seems possible to me will be in for decrease in diffiulty.

Thanks for doing this again!!!

-0.1    covers  from -0.1 to  -0.000000000000000001....
0.0     covers  from  0.0 to    0.099999999999999999...
0.1    covers   from  0.1 to    0.199999999999999999...


so -0.08   would be won by  -0.1  not 0.0

@ QuintLeo  pick    you still have some time.

time is up all picks are in and done.

[fr4nkthetank]

wow im stunned that the difficulty is still projected to be high, with all the hashrate moving to the other chain.  just wow.  I cant see my pick there in the list, did it fall through a crack ? 0.0

[Landy1264]

wow im stunned that the difficulty is still projected to be high, with all the hashrate moving to the other chain.  just wow.  .......

Hashrate(?):   7,192,871,302 GH/s! They switch when BCH-Diff is getting 50% down! Maybe today or tomorrow. That's a part of their plan ...

[philipma1957]

wow im stunned that the difficulty is still projected to be high, with all the hashrate moving to the other chain.  just wow.  I cant see my pick there in the list, did it fall through a crack ? 0.0

yep  I will fix it later

[adaseb]

I am guessing alot of Antminer S1 and KnCMiner Jupiters are coming online to mine BCASH. Since those ASICs might actually be profitable again for some...

Seems like the hashpower came out of nowhere. BTC difficulty is not dropping significally.

[leowonderful]

Interestingly enough a tweet says Bitmain has or will plan to move 170PH of hashing power to BCH. It won't be the longest chain as it still won't have the most cumulative POW, so don't worry about it too much.

[philipma1957]

New contest picks  to end at block 516.

Experimental Image Contribution:



Let's see how this holds up over time.
If it works well enough, feel free to quote it Phil.

If you are overseas  I will spring for the shipping of the Trezor


-3.0 = isoneguy

-1.3 = VRobb

-1.2 = philipma1957  >>>>  I always pick this number

-1.0 = Last of the V8s

-0.2 = keystroke
0.0 = Fr4nkthetank
0.1 = tomintx
0.2 = mocacinno

0.9 = buwaytress
1.8 = eDonkey

2.2 = vapourminer
2.5 = alh
3.2 = Psi

3.6 = Landy1264
3.7 = pusttiu
5.0 = leowonderful

And look at the diff the gray line has always been under so were  pretty much negative but at the moment it has shot way up!

While I have participated in these before, I have lost my sense of how the range works when we are into negative territory. If as an example, what would I choose for the following:

Estimated Next Difficulty:    922,529,973,147 (-0.08%)

Would that be -.1% -or- 0.0% ?

I'll wait a bit to make a guess, but thought I would ask now, since it seems possible to me will be in for decrease in diffiulty.

Thanks for doing this again!!!

-0.1    covers  from -0.1 to  -0.000000000000000001....
0.0     covers  from  0.0 to    0.099999999999999999...
0.1    covers   from  0.1 to    0.199999999999999999...


so -0.08   would be won by  -0.1  not 0.0

@ QuintLeo  pick    you still have some time.

time is up all picks are in and done.

Bitcoin Difficulty:   923,233,068,449

Estimated Next Difficulty:   919,998,488,810 (-0.35%)  

Adjust time:   After 304 Blocks, About 2.1 days
Hashrate(?):   6,284,734,288 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.9 minutes
3 blocks: 29.8 minutes
6 blocks: 59.6 minutes
Updated:   12:0 (2.7 minutes ago)




304 blocks left  we are at -0.35%

contenders below:

-1.3 = VRobb

-1.2 = philipma1957  >>>>  I always pick this number

-1.0 = Last of the V8s

-0.2 = keystroke
0.0 = Fr4nkthetank
0.1 = tomintx
0.2 = mocacinno

0.9 = buwaytress
1.8 = eDonkey

2.2 = vapourminer
2.5 = alh


but  a bigger shift could alter this

[Last of the V8s]

oh i'd kinda given up hope, but...
yay still got that fortune-telling gift

[QuintLeo]

wow im stunned that the difficulty is still projected to be high, with all the hashrate moving to the other chain.  just wow.  I cant see my pick there in the list, did it fall through a crack ? 0.0

 Avalon shipments. Shipments of the various BitFury based miners. At least one major private mine with their own chip seems to have started miner deployments.

 It's NOT all about Bitmain and hasn't been for most of this year - just largely so.

[coinzoid]

Just like Trezor developers, I think add2psu developers are honest too. I have ordered 3 add2psu delay from them and received add2psu instead. After telling them the issue, they sent me replacement order with correct items very quickly. I also learnt this mistake after selling my bag thinking that they are delay ones, and buyer informed me. I have offered him either full or partial refund and he has accepted partial refund.

Organizing a promo to giveaway your free Trezor is a good idea.

[philipma1957]

Just like Trezor developers, I think add2psu developers are honest too. I have ordered 3 add2psu delay from them and received add2psu instead. After telling them the issue, they sent me replacement order with correct items very quickly. I also learnt this mistake after selling my bag thinking that they are delay ones, and buyer informed me. I have offered him either full or partial refund and he has accepted partial refund.

Organizing a promo to giveaway your free Trezor is a good idea.

Thanks  they (trezor) were good to me  so I am passing the goodness on.

[TheYankeesWin!]

Big drop over night

Bitcoin Difficulty:   923,233,068,449
Estimated Next Difficulty:   897,339,478,921 (-2.80%)
Adjust time:   After 218 Blocks, About 1.6 days
Hashrate(?):   5,946,751,039 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.3 minutes
3 blocks: 30.9 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   7:45 (1.8 minutes ago)

[leowonderful]

Big drop over night

Bitcoin Difficulty:   923,233,068,449
Estimated Next Difficulty:   897,339,478,921 (-2.80%)
Adjust time:   After 218 Blocks, About 1.6 days
Hashrate(?):   5,946,751,039 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.3 minutes
3 blocks: 30.9 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   7:45 (1.8 minutes ago)

Miners switching to BCH finally made their impact. Will be interesting to see what will happen after BCH gets its needed difficulty adjustment and profitability on the chain drops, likely people switching back to BTC.

[philipma1957]

Yeah  we have really went down due to a huge hash rate switch to BCC!

[TheYankeesWin!]

Wow 3895 ph  on BCC

and BTC  dropped down to 4728 P from around 7100 P

[fr4nkthetank]

Gentlemen, the difficulty show is just beginning.  Volatility ahead !  Bitcoin core better implement solutions for the mempool soon...if not everyone is in for a rough ride once the spam comes in like crazy and miners switch chains again to mine BCH.  transactions will be costly.

[alh]

Right now, it looks like it will be another roll-over.

Bitcoin Difficulty:    923,233,068,449
Estimated Next Difficulty:    882,157,991,586 (-4.45%)
Adjust time:    After 185 Blocks, About 1.4 days
Hashrate(?):    5,678,041,587 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):    
1 block: 10.6 minutes
3 blocks: 31.8 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
   
Updated:    16:40 (6.1 minutes ago)

Looks like going forward, difficulty changes may well be driven more by BCH activity and price, and less by new mining hardware being added, or old miners being removed. Wild times indeed.

[philipma1957]

Right now, it looks like it will be another roll-over.

Bitcoin Difficulty:    923,233,068,449
Estimated Next Difficulty:    882,157,991,586 (-4.45%)
Adjust time:    After 185 Blocks, About 1.4 days
Hashrate(?):    5,678,041,587 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):    
1 block: 10.6 minutes
3 blocks: 31.8 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
   
Updated:    16:40 (6.1 minutes ago)

Looks like going forward, difficulty changes may well be driven more by BCH activity and price, and less by new mining hardware being added, or old miners being removed. Wild times indeed.

the total of the 2 coins is around 8500 ph.

I may radically change  the game

not sure.

[edonkey]

Looks like hash rate will keep sloshing back and forth:

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/why-bcash-mining-shouldnt-affect-bitcoin-much-bitcoin-mining-could-ruin-bcash/

The reason why miners can do that is the BCH rule that allows for mid-period downward difficulty adjustments. Without that, it would be a lot more costly to keep the BCH chain alive when it's less profitable.

Effectively BCH was designed to enable coordinated miners to manipulate the block rate to their advantage. This will continue forever as long as long as BCH has enough value to make it worth while.

It could well be that this is the only tangible reason why BCH exists. It's not because big blockers wanted it. It's because the large mining pools can profit by it.