So where exactly are we in the bubble?

[maokoto]

Do you see many institutional investors in Bitcoin at this time? Are pension funds including Bitcoin in their portfolios? I have exposure to this information at my job and can assure you they are not.

Based on this I would say that we are still in the stealth phase, possibly moving into the awareness phase.

That's great info to know bro. I feel the same in people around me. Most do not want to know much about bitcoin, but they have heard about it already. If this graph is going to be true... the big raise is much yet to come.

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[Anarchist]

In my opinion, we are still in the beginning of Bitcoin. Less than 10 years old is nothing. So I would place Bitcoin in the awareness stage to compare with your graph. There are still a lot to do, a lot to see

[reflector]

Do you see many institutional investors in Bitcoin at this time? Are pension funds including Bitcoin in their portfolios? I have exposure to this information at my job and can assure you they are not.

Based on this I would say that we are still in the stealth phase, possibly moving into the awareness phase.

That's great info to know bro. I feel the same in people around me. Most do not want to know much about bitcoin, but they have heard about it already. If this graph is going to be true... the big raise is much yet to come.

It is not they want to know much. They does not about bitcoin first, if you say bitcoin is digital currency and then so and so information. Let them understand the bitcoin by themselves. You just earn the bitcoin with your strategy you have. Explain about signature earning and other online earnings.

[Denker]

I'm not sure if we are in a bubble to be honest. Bitcoin was surpressed for a long time and maybe right now we are just moving where the price should be, wherever this will be. Probably we will see some overshooting but imo we are not there yet.
Some say we could still see some 3-5x from the actual price and then we see some emotional and massive correction.
Just enjoy what you are witnessing right now and just take some profits if you feel scary.
Bitcoin is wild and will continue doing so for many more years.  

[CoinClarity]

6 days later, price has shot up $600...

Man I love that graphic. Still nobody knows exactly where we are, but we know its comin'. Its just human nature.

So _now_ where are we in the bubble?

   

[Rahar02]

I know y'all have seen this diagram before, and with BTC just crossing $3,800 as I type, where do you think we are in the bubble?



 But are we just beginning the true ascent, or have we reached the peak? Thoughts?

Basically, this cycle always repeated again and again in every year along bitcoin journey. I don't think this chart represent bitcoin development - movement over time as in the beginning and midway, bitcoin charts fluctuate a lot but seems increase rather than significant decrease because of fear, capitulation or back to the mean, and in the end bitcoin price should be steady when it reach the highest peak.

But, if we talking about bitcoin bubble, we're still on awareness phase as most people in the world don't know about bitcoin or just know that there is a digital currency named bitcoin, but don't really know what bitcoin is. Wait until all media write about bitcoin and cause more people aware of bitcoin existence and its usability.

[mackenzied]

In my opinion, we are still in the beginning of Bitcoin. Less than 10 years old is nothing. So I would place Bitcoin in the awareness stage to compare with your graph. There are still a lot to do, a lot to see

Indeed, although we are in the early days of bitcoin, however, the strong outburst of altcoin in the bitcoin platform has made all of us trapped in a bubble, and if it continues to grow, It can break at any time.

[HeRetiK]

In my opinion, we are still in the beginning of Bitcoin. Less than 10 years old is nothing. So I would place Bitcoin in the awareness stage to compare with your graph. There are still a lot to do, a lot to see

Indeed, although we are in the early days of bitcoin, however, the strong outburst of altcoin in the bitcoin platform has made all of us trapped in a bubble, and if it continues to grow, It can break at any time.

Yep... the alt coin and ICO token market was definitely bubbly, although it seems to have calmed down a bit. To me it actually looks like most alt coins are in the early blow off phase of the current cycle, with a couple of coins and tokens lagging behind. Of course it might just be an alt coin bear trap, but I think that alts already have grown way beyond what is healthy and will largely depend on Bitcoin's next movements.

[cybersofts]

I know y'all have seen this diagram before, and with BTC just crossing $3,800 as I type, where do you think we are in the bubble?



Aw man so cuz I'm a noob it won't post the image... Oh well. Its basically that "main stages of a bubble" chart. Which crypto most definitely is in. But are we just beginning the true ascent, or have we reached the peak? Thoughts?

That image is nice, unlucky you can’t post it. This might not be a bubble at all, especially with the recent drops in value. There was a drop to 2000 a while back before August the first, we then recovered and we rose to 3000, stabilised there and then pushed up to 3.5K. Then we dropped to 3.1K and now with more pumping from miners, we have reached 3.8K.

If we are in a bubble though, I would say we are in the media attention phase now, people are getting more and more interested with bitcoin daily and the media is also following suit.

Well for me, I think we are still in the awareness stage.
There are very few people know about bitcoin still, this world is a big place. 
We are now still creating awareness to the masses about bitcoin and it advantages.
Some people like the idea of bitcoin but they don't really want to get involved because they are old school.
It seems like the people of next generation will adopts bitcoin more because they will be born in computer generation (Digital Age).
 

[alyssa85]

I know y'all have seen this diagram before, and with BTC just crossing $3,800 as I type, where do you think we are in the bubble?



Aw man so cuz I'm a noob it won't post the image... Oh well. Its basically that "main stages of a bubble" chart. Which crypto most definitely is in. But are we just beginning the true ascent, or have we reached the peak? Thoughts?

Do you see many institutional investors in Bitcoin at this time? Are pension funds including Bitcoin in their portfolios? I have exposure to this information at my job and can assure you they are not.

Based on this I would say that we are still in the stealth phase, possibly moving into the awareness phase.

Pension funds can't invest in unregulated investments (because this is old people's retirements we're talking about). However, Hedge Funds can invest in whatever they like and I think this current move up in the last few months is hedge fund money.

That is why I think we're at the first stage of Mania, which is "Media Attention". Once cryptos get ETFs approved etc, then we get to the part of mania labelled "public" where Joe Bloggs is actively choosing to put money into cryptos. We are several years off that. BTW, I think this chart is for cryotos as a whole, not just bitcoin - no way to know which coin will be top top when we blow the top.

[fabiorem]

I only sold BCH that I have bought earlier, and got some profit.

The ones I received from the fork, are still intact.

I think BTC price will be tanked around 4000-4200 range for the next week, and it will only move upwards again after Ver and co. dump all or most of their coins for the BCH pump. By then, BCH will probably be on the same price range. Then both coins will start moving up past the 4000-4200 range.

[liuqi]

In my opinion, we are still in the beginning of Bitcoin. Less than 10 years old is nothing. So I would place Bitcoin in the awareness stage to compare with your graph. There are still a lot to do, a lot to see

Indeed, although we are in the early days of bitcoin, however, the strong outburst of altcoin in the bitcoin platform has made all of us trapped in a bubble, and if it continues to grow, It can break at any time.

Yep... the alt coin and ICO token market was definitely bubbly, although it seems to have calmed down a bit. To me it actually looks like most alt coins are in the early blow off phase of the current cycle, with a couple of coins and tokens lagging behind. Of course it might just be an alt coin bear trap, but I think that alts already have grown way beyond what is healthy and will largely depend on Bitcoin's next movements.

Wherever any altcoins value bumps up that even bitcoin value bump along with that. In marketplace stocks every digital currency have been increase with together. I noticed some ICO has started few months before that's value seems increased to 100 and more value.

[Coffee135]

Anyone who has studied classic Economics will tell you that bitcoin is a bubble, but he can develop and become a full-fledged currency. Such an experiment has already been carried out on the scale of one country. It was a company of MMM in Russia. Now her head is on the loose and maybe Satoshi is a pseudonym Mavrodi.

[fabiorem]

Anyone who has studied classic Economics will tell you that bitcoin is a bubble, but he can develop and become a full-fledged currency. Such an experiment has already been carried out on the scale of one country. It was a company of MMM in Russia. Now her head is on the loose and maybe Satoshi is a pseudonym Mavrodi.

Yes but bitcoin is not a classic asset.

Bitcoin is a religion, that is what analysts are failing to perceive.

[Barbut]

Anyone who has studied classic Economics will tell you that bitcoin is a bubble, but he can develop and become a full-fledged currency. Such an experiment has already been carried out on the scale of one country. It was a company of MMM in Russia. Now her head is on the loose and maybe Satoshi is a pseudonym Mavrodi.

Yes but bitcoin is not a classic asset.

Bitcoin is a religion, that is what analysts are failing to perceive.

Maybe you gone a little far with saying that bitcoin is a religion, I understand money today is everything, but its not good to believe in money too much, I hope that you are just joking about this.
Coffee135 made nice point here, and what i like most is his opinion that bitcoin can become full-fledged currency one day. That is similar with what I think. and reason why your comment draw my attention is my discussion in one other thread. Bitcoin already can be used in real economy, to not rush with overtaking, but for sure bitcoin can and will be used in real life more and more in the future. About bubble I can`t agree with you, more money pumped in, more usage and demand will push price up, you may call it bubble, cause bubbles rise like price now, but this bubble will not be easy to break.

[thecodebear]

not this image again. this image has been posted more times than i have satoshi

and if you want my answer, i say we are currently in the blow off phase when the despair had already happened at the bottom price of $1830 and it is slowly coming back up to the "mean"

What are you on about?

The bubble moved out of the stealth phase at around $1000, differing from the mean.  If you look at a chart, you can see the bull market beginning at around August to October 2015.  In late 2016 it starts pushing unusually fast, moving into the "awareness phase".  In about March 2017 there is a notable sell off, which is the "bear trap".  Then the price begins jumping sharply at the start of May, which is when the "mania phase" begins.

During the mania phase there has been some swings, but only relatively minor ones.  Even the drop to $1800 was not very significant.  Now we are going so rapidly upwards that it is blatantly the "greed" or "delusion" phase (which is why the public, including you, are having delusions about where we are in the bubble).

The bubble may have further to go up, but I'm already mostly out as I've been buying stuff with my coins over the last couple of days.
The "mean" is somewhere between $800 and $1200 if you ask me.  I expect a bear market to bottom out around $600, which could happen in the next two to three years.

It depends on if you are talking short term or long term. You are talking about the changes over the last couple years, so I assume you are talking about a long term view of bitcoin, and indeed that chart if meant to be a long term view from stealth to full public "mania", which only happens once in an assets lifetime (sure bitcoin had a bubble like this in 2013 but the mania was among the stealth phase people, it was a very tiny bubble in the stealth phase of that bubble chart). And according to that graphic the real price rise doesn't even start until after institutional investors have all gotten onboard. This hasn't even begun to happen yet! We are just now moving into awareness stage. On the global "public" scale of that chart this year we finally started moving out of the stealth phase.

I expect over the next year or two investment firms will start buying up bitcoin and letting their clients buy bitcoin through them, when this starts happening you can know for sure that we are in the awareness phase. The public phase is when you can walk down the street asking people about bitcoin and a decent percentage of people say yes I have bitcoin, right now if you did that you'd be very lucky to find one person who has bitcoin. I just laugh every time I see an article or commenter on the internet talk about bitcoin being in a bubble, that's how you know they don't know anything about bitcoin. The only exception is if they are talking about a short term bubble that will pop and then find support and then hit new ATHs like we just had from May through July.

[andrei56]

I know y'all have seen this diagram before, and with BTC just crossing $3,800 as I type, where do you think we are in the bubble?



Aw man so cuz I'm a noob it won't post the image... Oh well. Its basically that "main stages of a bubble" chart. Which crypto most definitely is in. But are we just beginning the true ascent, or have we reached the peak? Thoughts?

I do not think we are in a full bubble, part of the growth is justified, however I will say that according to the graph we are in the mania phase, but I think we still have a lot more room to grow, we are in the media attention or in the attention part of the curve, so there are a lot of profits still to be had.

[aso118]

Anyone who has studied classic Economics will tell you that bitcoin is a bubble, but he can develop and become a full-fledged currency. Such an experiment has already been carried out on the scale of one country. It was a company of MMM in Russia. Now her head is on the loose and maybe Satoshi is a pseudonym Mavrodi.

The classic laws of Economics will tell you that Bitcoin was a bubble when it achieved parity with the dolllar, when it increased from $2 to $32. The laws of Economics wouldn't have told you that Bitoin will reach $4000. So it is up to you to see whether you go by the book or take additional risk.

[Usainbot]

In my opinion, we are still in the beginning of Bitcoin. Less than 10 years old is nothing. So I would place Bitcoin in the awareness stage to compare with your graph. There are still a lot to do, a lot to see

I agree with that. The bitcoin is still in the left bottom of the S curve. It will rise when more people use it.

[CoinClarity]

Bitcoin price currently above $4,300... bubble intact!

I think if there's one thing that will prevent the price of BTC from crossing... say... $8000, its transaction fees. It costs at least $4 regardless of the amount of BTC being moved to make sure it will be confirmed in the next 30-60 minutes. Double this to $8 and its getting a bit out of hand. Other platforms like Waves (though still very clunky), and my personally favorite crypto of all time DOGE, have considerably lower tx fees, and don't seem to have a shortage of miners or those willing to keep the system afloat.

Speculation is the #1 reason why BTC would get absurdly high, which in my opinion, is $10,000 or more, even though some Wall Street analysts predict it going to $50,000 or even $1,000,000. They must either be on crack or not understand how transaction fees are calculated.