After reading a lot of perma-bullish postings in this speculation forum, I only want to issue a little warning. Not as a professional trader, but a guy that has been here since 2013.
Be careful! I think we are near the top of a bubble. Don't invest what you cannot afford to lose.
I thought I was not going to post again in Speculation so soon, but you may be the professional trader:
We have four actual groups:
- smart strategic big money (long-term portfolios)
- professional short-term traders
- the day trader who thinks he is limiting his risks
- program traders who try to arbitrage ticks
- the average retail investor
- the fool who rushes in at the last minute
In most real good vertical markets, it is the professional short-term traders who keep trying to sell the new highs. This has been the group that has been bearish ever since 2009. They never saw new highs coming, and they still will try to sell every new high today. They falsely believe that they are “professional” and so they will be right and the average investor is the fool. But the average investor sees the trend for what it is, goes with the trend, while the short-term “professional” keeps trying to beat the market.
It’s very difficult to trade a vertical market. Be careful with getting knocked off the horse too soon.
None of us know what is going to happen.
There is a compelling viewpoint that
the momentum and rush into Bitcoin will carry forward a bit longer. Perhaps even with a dip sometime during the 2x and the (sell the) end of the year (and go away) period.
Indeed you will probably end up being correct, but at $6000, $8000, $10000, $15000, or $25000? That is the question.
I do agree, nobody should be rushing in at these prices. Buy dips and/or dollar cost averaging. Don’t be the guy who bought everything in one lump sum at the top:
He explained he had bought the Japanese share market on the very day of the high and now it was crashing. His investment was $50 million. But the intrigue came when he said it was the first time in his life he had purchased any stock. He then had my attention since I was talking to the guy who bought the high.
Those who purchased long-ago should be wary of trying to trade in and out of a vertical market, unless you have some conviction about arbitrage such as you think an altcoin is undervalued.