Watching amateur finance types flail

[Clipse]

Mr. Nagle must be extremely busy as I see he had no articles to add to his site for the last 9months until the recent bitcoin drop.

Seems the industry you prefer is doing much worst haha

[andes]

Mr. Nagle must be extremely busy as I see he had no articles to add to his site for the last 18000 years and 9 months until the recent bitcoin drop.

Corrected.

[Prze_koles]

Mr. Nagle must be extremely busy as I see he had no articles to add to his site for the last 18000 years and 9 months until the recent bitcoin drop.

Corrected.

wow, it's like over 9000 X2 

[Clipse]

Mr. Nagle must be extremely busy as I see he had no articles to add to his site for the last 18000 years and 9 months until the recent bitcoin drop.

Corrected.

Sorry, my brain self-corrected his inept website designing skills

[HideousBeastManGuy]

Value doesn't need to go up to make money, it just has to move.  As others have said, the money isn't in the speculation, it can be found in solving problems bitcoins presents so long as there is a demand for them.

[Agorista]

No wonder he could predict all those bubbles... he's a time traveler! But good sir according to your logic BTC won't be a fad. For if the ponzi schemes of today last for another 18,000 years, then truly BTC will be one of the most enduring currencies of history.

I think some more important questions than the dead-horse ones you pose are as follows...

• Why travel back to the year 2000 AD?
• You use this "we" in your self-promoting introduction... who are these cohorts of yours? Are they also time travelers?
• Were your options limited because your kind saw it fit to destroy/detain you, and your Flux Capacitor was damaged when you left in your time machine?
  
• Do you need help fixing your time machine and have you consulted Christopher Lloyd? Though he denies he could fix a real DeLorean there is clear proof in the American documentary "Back to the Future" that he in fact can!
• When the Doc is killed by Libyan terrorists in the documentary in the year 10985 was it due to the current unauthorized military action against Libya?
• Was there a major historical event that erased the web history of the 2000-2010 period that you had to resort to an 1990s design for your website?
  
• Is it because post-2011 design is so different that it would give away your ability to time travel and thus compromise your mission to warn us?
• What is that reason for which you warn us?
• In 18,000 years how many BTC do you own and spend each day?
• I doubt you actually make money via Amazon links to justify your hosting costs. Does money not exist in the future or does the USD miraculously recover starting with a reform period began by Ron Paul?
• Is the website a cover to make you appear to be an earthling from 2011 engaged in normal non-martian activities?
• Why would you warn us of the bubble if it will still allow the currency to last another 18,000 years?
• How does BTC manage to fight quantum computers from cracking the encryption over the next 18 millenia?
• Now, the question I promised I'd ask perchance I met a time traveler... will they still have Dr. Pepper in the future?

Lastly what do you have to say about this graph from your website that was recently cracked by the bitcoin network's furtively pooled cryptoanalysis power?



When the bubble pops will you all drink kool-aide and return to the time traveling mothership?

I can't continue to pretend these trivial things you post are of serious importance, so answer my questions instead.

[Quantumplation]

an MMORPG

why does everyone make this mistake when it's clearly a

The rules for "A" and "An" are not based on the actual letters, but on whether your mouth starts open or closed on the following word (which USUALLY corresponds to vowel/consonant), and in this case, since you say "Em Em Oh Are Pee Gee" not "morpig" (or something), it is "an MMORPG".  There are some other examples, but they don't come to mind.

EDIT: Also, wow, I'm late to the party, I totally didn't realize this was 7 pages long and that I was responding to something from ages ago.

[bitcoinBull]

1.  OP's website isn't that bad, it just lacks recent content.

2.  The comparison to Digicash and Beenz is not fair.  Neither was open-source nor decentralized.  And those aren't mere buzzwords.

3.  The comparison to a bubble and/or pyramid scheme is fair and accurate.  However, in these days everything is a bubble or pyramid scheme: Gold, the US dollar, real estate, NASDAQ, S&P 500, Enron and WorldCom, LinkedIn and Groupon, Bernie Madoff and  the SEC and their hedge funds, etc. etc..  So this point is moot.  Every investment is speculative.

What differentiates Bitcoin from the other pyramid schemes is its total public transparency.  Bitcoin is the most transparent pyramid scheme in modern history, and for that reason could turn out to be the most successful.

[imperi]

an MMORPG

why does everyone make this mistake when it's clearly a

The rules for "A" and "An" are not based on the actual letters, but on whether your mouth starts open or closed on the following word (which USUALLY corresponds to vowel/consonant), and in this case, since you say "Em Em Oh Are Pee Gee" not "morpig" (or something), it is "an MMORPG".  There are some other examples, but they don't come to mind.

This. +1

[TheGer]

Number one, my cashouts thus far prove different.  Number 2, coins are a trade vehicle, much the same as Paper Dollars, or Gold and Silver.  More akin to Gold and Silver though as you just can't create those items out of thin air as dollars can be.  They must be mined just as Bitcoins, and are of finite amounts.

Think of it in regards to a World Reserve Currency.  Oil is bought and sold(mostly, and soon not to be at all) in USD.  Countries must buy USD to purchase Oil from suppliers.  Think of Bitcoins as an Internet Reserve Currency.  You buy and/or mine Bitcoins to conduct business transactions online.  While the market at this time may be small and in some cases shady, it does exist and will continue to grow.

The fact that it has value, is finite in quantity, can be produced at expense, and is currently used in a Free Market community for Commerce proves that it does generate revenue.

__

"Bear in mind that the Bitcoin system generates no revenue."




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[bzzard]

Watching professional finance types flail

[Teej]

EDIT: Also, wow, I'm late to the party, I totally didn't realize this was 7 pages long and that I was responding to something from ages ago.

It's 7 pages...but since when is 1 day "ages"? 

(I made the same point on page 6) 

[Serge]

EDIT: Also, wow, I'm late to the party, I totally didn't realize this was 7 pages long and that I was responding to something from ages ago.

It's 7 pages...but since when is 1 day "ages"?  

(I made the same point on page 6)  

apparently time collided and we can interact with some folks from the future in this thread =)

[joepie91]

an MMORPG

why does everyone make this mistake when it's clearly a

No, it's not.
"an em em oh arr pee gee"

It's about how you pronounce it, not about how you spell it.

[anybodyelseNOW]

as a daytrader for 12 years i know exactly what this guy is saying. I actually predicted my own demise when I bought at 30 bux but I took the gamble since this is not like stock trading...(i only invested around 10k which is fuck all in trading terms) this market acts as a share market with all the classic signs and follows, and also is different.. all i can say is if your not a professional trader i would suggest you sit on the sidelines for now or you WILL be fucked over.. I am waiting for gox to open and cash in on the panic selling. what i have lost so far is nothing compared to what I expect to make cashing in on inexperienced computer geeks or first time traders in this market. I will have your scalps.

The reason I am in the hole atm is because I didn't think a decentralised, deflationary currency would exhibit the same traits as a commodity, but it does. Human behavior is the single point of failure in this situation.

as stated in the OP my biggest worry is the exchanges, they are the next single biggest point of failure you people need recognise, more exchanges are needed that are backed by someone big.. or this will remain in the realm of a fantasy nerd currency..

i like your attitude

[Gabi]

sorry but bitcoins have a use.  Because of bitcoins I have a capability I did not have before. I can easily send money to someone in a random location on earth with NO logistics troubles other than getting their address.  If you don't think that this marks a major turning point you are simply small minded.

Bitcoin is still an infant, there are big things to come.

I quote that, i've never seen a faster, simpler and more secure (if you know what you are doing) system to transfer money

[Timo Y]

I'm John Nagle, the person behind Downside. Over the last decade, we predicted, well in advance, the dot-com crash (company by company), the oil spike, and the mortgage crisis.

Make a list of all your major predictions that didn't materialze in over the last decade, and a list of the ones that did materialize.  Weigh them by how much money you personally put behind each prediction.   Then tell us the ratio.

If the ratio of correct/incorrect predictions isn't higher than 0.5 you have no credibility IMO.

That just screams "bubble" to anyone who's seen one.

Logical fallacy:

Ponzi schemes exhibit exponential growth
Bitcoin exhibits exponential growth
Therefore Bitcoin is a Ponzi scheme.

This is a zero-sum game.

No it's not. My bitcoins don't just have speculative value. They have value to me because they give me a low friction, low cost way to send money to any other bitcoin user in the world, without filling out paperwork or asking anyone for permission. That's a powerful tool.

"Digicash" and "Beenz", the two previous rounds of this idea, also tanked.

This statement shows that you are clueless about bitcoin and haven't properly researched the technology you are advising your investors not to invest in.  

Third, the organizations in Bitcoin's ecology are very flaky. Mt. Gox is two guys in Tokyo who are in way over their heads. We don't know much about Tradehill, which is somewhere in Chile. Neither of these "exchanges" has a published business address, a Dun and Bradstreet rating, published audits, or regulation as a bank or money transfer firm. Yet they're acting as depository institutions for sizable funds belonging to others.

So they haven't encumbered themselves with endless red tape and unnecessary overhead.  Boohoo.

When I use a service, all I care about is whether the business delivers. The rest is unimportant.

Mtgox has always delivered for me so far, and that's why I will keep using them.  As an adult, I can judge for myself whether a business is trustworthy. I don't need a royal stamp of approval.

Obviously this is a very young economy and I can't expect bank-level security from a startup like mtgox.  But I wouldn't keep more than $1000 USD on mtgox either.

[Gabi]

It's "A Massively Multiplayer Role Playing Game"

[ezl]

OP's "points" are garbage. they boil down to:

1. look at the chart, if you don't know who the sucker is, its you. Not an argument.

2. BTC is "supposed to be a currency, but _actually_ its a speculative vehicle". What does that even mean? What distinguishes a "currency" from any other asset (hint: the relevant subset of the population USE it as a common value of store. And many currencies are widely treated as speculative vehicles.  Not an argument.

3. Organizations are flaky, my evidence: "2 guys in tokyo run one website" (False, insufficent research), "We don't know much about Tradehill (Again, "I haven't done much research"), "they don't have published addresses" (How would a published address make a greater case for legitimacy?)

The "classic signs" he mentions (pump and dump, bucket shops, pyramid schemes) exist WIDELY in otherwise trusted ecosystems ("trusted" might be a loaded description, but the majority of America still has money in the Wall Street money machine).

The one comment by the OP that is worth discussing is: "The system generates no revenue". Bitcoin is not a BUSINESS. It doesn't have to generate revenue to _create value_.  This is an important distinction. If a subset of the world population decides to adopt BTC as a store of value for barter, and have decided that anonymity and instananeous transfer are desirable characteristics in an asset to the point they are willing to pay for it, then it has value.  As the set of users who value BTC's characteristics grows and creates an ecosystem around that particular asset, it increases the utility of BTC and continues to encourage valuation growth.  Its not about "generating revenue", its about creating value for its users.

[Tasty Champa]

It's "A Massively Multiplayer Role Playing Game"

xD +1