Top 5 reasons why I predict a bitcoin bear market in Q4/2017

[GreatOrchid]

I dont know.. but i dont think that bitcoin will have a bearish trend, we are leaving the red zone and bitcoin is upto $4,2k again, so i am happy with those numbers right now, maybe you are right.. But i hope that this is not going to happen, since i have a lot of plans with my bitcoins and i would not like seeing bitcoin go down again.
so lets see how the market goes in the next days, nobody can predict right now.

[1713534235]

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[Yuuto]

I dont know.. but i dont think that bitcoin will have a bearish trend, we are leaving the red zone and bitcoin is upto $4,2k again, so i am happy with those numbers right now, maybe you are right.. But i hope that this is not going to happen, since i have a lot of plans with my bitcoins and i would not like seeing bitcoin go down again.
so lets see how the market goes in the next days, nobody can predict right now.

Yeah definitely. I think that this year at least we will see plenty more growth.

However, next year we could definitely see some bearish market activities. The fact of the matter is that every 4 years when the halving comes the price absolutely skyrockets and the years in betwen the price will go down drastically.

But still, i'd expect price to at least to reach another all time high by the end of the year.

[timerland]

We have all witnessed the fall in price on September 14, part due to Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan and part due to rumors around China, the market was bleeding that day. Everybody knows that bitcoin is volatile, but I am sure that you didn't expect waking up that morning and seeing bitcoin down almost 1k$.


Read full article: https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@skydweller/top-reasons-why-i-predict-a-bitcoin-bear-market-in-q4-2017

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I would agree with you if you changed Q4 in 2017 to Q2 in 2018.

Personally i don't see any sort of bear market or major correction coming until around April or May next year. There are still a lot of people taking on long positions on bitcoin and certainly a lot more institutional investors than before.

But we are in a bubble, and it will pop eventually in the form of a bear market. As i said, it'll probably happen Q1 or Q2 next year.

[jorneyflair]

We have all witnessed the fall in price on September 14, part due to Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan and part due to rumors around China, the market was bleeding that day. Everybody knows that bitcoin is volatile, but I am sure that you didn't expect waking up that morning and seeing bitcoin down almost 1k$.


Read full article: https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@skydweller/top-reasons-why-i-predict-a-bitcoin-bear-market-in-q4-2017

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This could definitely happen if further news come out of China or they ban bitcoin mining along with bitcoin exchanges. However, this is pure speculation and if this does not happen then i don't really think we'll be seeing a bear market this year.

Potentially next year as others have said, though.

One of your reasons is that the volume is low - which imo, it really is not. A lot of Chinese volume has actually gone unaccounted for, since they have moved onto p2p trading.

[MissionPhailed]

Well, I doubt we'll see a new ATH this year, but not primarily due to the reasons you've mentioned in your article on Steemit; value of BTC still seems quite inflated and probably 'needs' to bottom out (traders selling off profits and/or weak hands) to initiate a new bullrun. So from our current perspective a bear market is likely to occur in the coming months.

[exstasie]

Well, I doubt we'll see a new ATH this year, but not primarily due to the reasons you've mentioned in your article on Steemit; value of BTC still seems quite inflated and probably 'needs' to bottom out (traders selling off profits and/or weak hands) to initiate a new bullrun. So from our current perspective a bear market is likely to occur in the coming months.

By your logic, this could be true anytime that price makes new highs. How do you account for parabolic bull runs, then? During such rallies, speculators call tops all the way up, with similar logic. It's too early to say that Bitcoin is in a bear market or long term trading range. For that reason, I'd be wary of applying "overbought" arguments to it. While I won't rule out a bear market, this could easily be a consolidation before the next leg up.

[mozillaspez]

I dont know.. but i dont think that bitcoin will have a bearish trend, we are leaving the red zone and bitcoin is upto $4,2k again, so i am happy with those numbers right now, maybe you are right.. But i hope that this is not going to happen, since i have a lot of plans with my bitcoins and i would not like seeing bitcoin go down again.
so lets see how the market goes in the next days, nobody can predict right now.

For sure bitcoin will reach up 4500USD soon because as it is seen then it will go through that soon because look at the market the speed of bitcoin is increasing is already enhanced once again.

[Andre#]

Well, I doubt we'll see a new ATH this year, but not primarily due to the reasons you've mentioned in your article on Steemit; value of BTC still seems quite inflated and probably 'needs' to bottom out (traders selling off profits and/or weak hands) to initiate a new bullrun. So from our current perspective a bear market is likely to occur in the coming months.

By your logic, this could be true anytime that price makes new highs. How do you account for parabolic bull runs, then? During such rallies, speculators call tops all the way up, with similar logic. It's too early to say that Bitcoin is in a bear market or long term trading range. For that reason, I'd be wary of applying "overbought" arguments to it. While I won't rule out a bear market, this could easily be a consolidation before the next leg up.

Yeah, you should to imagine the worst situation can happen while you not be alert about it.
The price of Bitcoin is unstable, everything can happens when you do not ready.

[cyberChevan]

We have all witnessed the fall in price on September 14, part due to Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan and part due to rumors around China, the market was bleeding that day. Everybody knows that bitcoin is volatile, but I am sure that you didn't expect waking up that morning and seeing bitcoin down almost 1k$.


Read full article: https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@skydweller/top-reasons-why-i-predict-a-bitcoin-bear-market-in-q4-2017

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Well I agree to your points, especially on the part about the Segwit 2x possible hardfork, the undying FUDs, and Bitcoin uncertainty. I also think that Bitcoin will crash as we approach the month of november since there might be a hardfork due to Segwit2x. And we cannot avoid many FUDs on that time. So nice gathering these points to make your conclusion.

[chesthing]

We have all witnessed the fall in price on September 14, part due to Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan and part due to rumors around China, the market was bleeding that day. Everybody knows that bitcoin is volatile, but I am sure that you didn't expect waking up that morning and seeing bitcoin down almost 1k$.


Read full article: https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@skydweller/top-reasons-why-i-predict-a-bitcoin-bear-market-in-q4-2017

Agree or Disagree?
Tell me in the comments

Well I agree to your points, especially on the part about the Segwit 2x possible hardfork, the undying FUDs, and Bitcoin uncertainty. I also think that Bitcoin will crash as we approach the month of november since there might be a hardfork due to Segwit2x. And we cannot avoid many FUDs on that time. So nice gathering these points to make your conclusion.

The same incorrect prediction happened last fork - instead of dumping, the price went up. DUHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH so many dumb fuckers

[Hyperme.sh]

We have all witnessed the fall in price on September 14, part due to Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan and part due to rumors around China, the market was bleeding that day. Everybody knows that bitcoin is volatile, but I am sure that you didn't expect waking up that morning and seeing bitcoin down almost 1k$.

Bitcoin has doubled nearly 11 times since Nov 2012, on average every 6 months. That equates to a whopping 160,000% rise.

Do you really consider a 25% drop a "bear market"?

Wake me up when it falls 75%. Even then, Bitcoin would still have doubled 8 or 9 times since 2012. And probably still recover.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2203360.0

That $51xx ($5180 afair) was also my exact projection (when BTC was $2300ish) for the first possible price for the top of this current bull. I had observed a similar ratio pattern. Did we really already reach that top when we nearly hit $5000?

So since Australia’s securities regulator has now come out and said ICOs are securities, and South Korea now confirming my predictions of ICO bans in major nations, then my question is does the death of ICOs drag proof-of-work issued coins down also, or does everyone sell their ICOs and buy Bitcoin, Litecoin, Bitcoin Cash?

If this is true  then  we have another opportunity to buy Bitcoin. I really cannot understand do why others are afraid when prices are falling remember what warren buffet said be greedy ehen everybody is scared.

Any one who isn’t selling all ICOs (which are illegal securities) on their deadcat bounces and buying proof-of-work issued tokens (which aren’t even securities), is not paying attention.

Read this.

I would appreciate very much your thoughts?

Some have speculated that after China’s election in October, then BTC trading will be reinstated in China. I’m more pessimistic about ICO issued tokens.


LTCBTC appears to me to be in a bullish triangle (wedge) preparing for a massive breakout to the upside over next months. 0.01 is the resistance of the triangle, which has been rock solid. We’d need to have seen lower lows on LTCBTC in order to be in a bearish mode, but we haven’t. Our minimum upside was 0.03 BTC which has not been achieved yet.

Also thus far this correction is less severe than the 2013/4 crash. That Mt.Gox driven flash crash caused BTCUSD to decline more than 60% and LTCUSD more than 80%. So far on this correction, BTCUSD only declined 40% and LTCUSD only 60%. So possibly we might have another leg up still or at least rising back to a double-top.

If we still have to see the original predictions of $1500 and $150 for LTC and BCH, then that would put BTC topping out at 0.03 - 0.05 w.r.t. to LTC so BTC reaching no higher than ~$5000. Perhaps BTC will double-top in the $5100s which was my original top price.

BCHUSD and BCHBTC have a similar bullish wedge pattern as LTCBTC (whereas LTCUSD has a similar blowoff topping pattern as BTC). This indicates a possibility that BTC and LTC are moving towards their tops, and then BCH will lag and rise magnificiently. Which coincides with the fanatical theory about BTCSegWit dying a fiery death. If BCH went to $1500 while BTC declined to $3000, that would a 5X gain in BCHBTC.

[CoinsCoinsEverywhere]

The one legit reason the article had was segwit2x. I do expect another bear market in november, but once the hard fork is over with I expect the rise to continue in December. Then again, maybe after the last fork people realize that it is smarter to hold onto bitcoin heading into a fork because you get free money, rather than selling and losing out on the free forked coins.

Yeah, I was thinking about the fork earlier today and wondering what effect that's going to have on all the crypto markets, and how I want to play it.  I, too, would like to hold on to as much bitcoin as I can before the November fork.  And then there's also the bitcoin gold fork in October...more free coins!   But somewhere, somehow, this is going to have to take some kind of toll.  We can't just keep forking bitcoin every month so everyone gets free money.

[winterland]

I don't think so, the bear market will last for a while in Q4 of 2017, it will end if FUD is stopped, mainly about China regulations, and Jamie Dimon words mean nothing without ban news from China. OKCoin and Huobi  will halt all trading services for local customers by the end of October and uncertain hard fork planned on November which mean; bitcoin price will fall down in the mid-end of October, or maybe not at all.
We have entered the end of September, bitcoin price at $3939, slowly increases, headed to $4000. Maybe could reach $4500 in October before another dip happen, uncertain price in November, but will recover by the end of this year.

All of those things are going to have a temporary effect on bitcoin at worst and will do nothing at best, the really worrying thing is the hard fork of segwit2x if it happens that is going to seriously affect bitcoin for a long time because most miners will leave the network.

[crackhawk]

im not sure wih your prediction, but i hope its a true, im still holding somt bitcoin to selling at higher price

[winterland]

im not sure wih your prediction, but i hope its a true, im still holding somt bitcoin to selling at higher price

Do you even know what a is a bear market? A bear market is a market full of sellers and people that are thinking the price is going to go down, if you are  holding your bitcoin to sell at an higher price and if his prediction becomes true then you are going to lose money by waiting.

[949miner]

Maybe you have a little reason in your article but no one can predict how the market will continue in the next few months, but a bearish market is understandable, since bitcoin rised a lot during last times. Maybe it can go down to 5000 dollars at max, but less than it is not possible, because there are too many people trusting and investing in bitcoin everytime more and more, and this makes the price stable.

[winterland]

Maybe you have a little reason in your article but no one can predict how the market will continue in the next few months, but a bearish market is understandable, since bitcoin rised a lot during last times. Maybe it can go down to 5000 dollars at max, but less than it is not possible, because there are too many people trusting and investing in bitcoin everytime more and more, and this makes the price stable.

I doubt that price is even possible anymore, people are waiting for the hard fork to happen and that is going to drive the price upward and if that happens prepare yourself since the price of bitcoin will probably reach a price close to 7000 dollars and we still have another fork after bitcoin gold.