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Author Topic: Is Bitcoin a Bubble?  (Read 2197 times)
jaysabi
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October 16, 2017, 01:54:36 AM
 #1

Wall street grows ever more certain Bitcoin is a bubble. I can't even say they're wrong. Flirting with $6000 per coin and low economic utility? For as dumb as Jamie Dimon sounds every time he says anything about Bitcoin, the tulip bubble analogy looks less and less inappropriate all the time.

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In a note to clients published on Thursday, analysts at UBS took a long look at Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, and the blockchain technology that underwrites this whole enterprise.

Looking only at pricing, UBS said that, “a twenty-fold increase in bitcoin prices in just two years, and an absence of any fundamental economic backing, cryptocurrency prices are almost certainly a bubble.”

Blockchain utility doesn't make crypto not a bubble. That'll be important to remember for people buying now expecting to make big gains at this cost basis, and there's real risk there.
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October 16, 2017, 02:02:42 AM
 #2

Wall street grows ever more certain Bitcoin is a bubble. I can't even say they're wrong. Flirting with $6000 per coin and low economic utility? For as dumb as Jamie Dimon sounds every time he says anything about Bitcoin, the tulip bubble analogy looks less and less inappropriate all the time.

Quote
In a note to clients published on Thursday, analysts at UBS took a long look at Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, and the blockchain technology that underwrites this whole enterprise.

Looking only at pricing, UBS said that, “a twenty-fold increase in bitcoin prices in just two years, and an absence of any fundamental economic backing, cryptocurrency prices are almost certainly a bubble.”

Blockchain utility doesn't make crypto not a bubble. That'll be important to remember for people buying now expecting to make big gains at this cost basis, and there's real risk there.
Looks more and more like it to be honest, it's likely managed to get to this point due to the volume of people who aren't engaging in the market, I have a feeling that once the price gets to a point there will be a bubble pop that will massively correct the market. Or it might even be a bull trap, following some of the market graphs that exist. I would not be surprised in the slightest if there is a massive bubble forming and the market might collapse. Hopefully that's not the case but it doesn't appear sustainable.
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October 16, 2017, 02:32:36 AM
 #3

The thing that could justify its quickly growing value would be its potential for mass adoption.

What if it can't become The One Coin to rule them all and in darkness bind them?

Even if we were to discount the current shortcomings preventing it from scaling, the problem is that it lacks uniqueness. What this means is that there could be btc-2, btc-3, and others, that are none too different from the original. No real scarcity.

The original cryptocurrency is in the hands of very few, there's little reason for the vast majority, who are still not in it, to adopt it, when it means gifting the world to these few. For these ones the alternatives should be more appealing.
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October 16, 2017, 02:37:55 AM
 #4

It's important to distinguish between a bubble and a deflationary currency. Bitcoin is a deflationary currency.


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October 16, 2017, 02:42:40 AM
 #5

yeah  a bubble.

at 5500 it was a bubble

at 4500 it was a bubble

at 3500 it was a bubble

at 2500 it was a bubble

at 1500 it was a bubble


To be fair in the fall of 2013 it went from 92 usd to 1200 usd

and by Jan 2015 dropped down to a slow as 180 usd.

So if it did it once it could do it again.

I mine alt coins with https://simplemining.net...
I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
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October 16, 2017, 02:48:19 AM
 #6

It's important to distinguish between a bubble and a deflationary currency. Bitcoin is a deflationary currency.

Are they mutually exclusive now? I'd posit that currency, that's not inherently valuable, is always a bubble of sorts.

I suppose the problem with its lack of uniqueness I mentioned above could be "solved" by building a quasi religious following around this one. Lacking that, a monopoly forcing its usage would do, too.
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October 16, 2017, 03:24:52 AM
 #7

Wall street grows ever more certain Bitcoin is a bubble. I can't even say they're wrong. Flirting with $6000 per coin and low economic utility? For as dumb as Jamie Dimon sounds every time he says anything about Bitcoin, the tulip bubble analogy looks less and less inappropriate all the time.

Quote
In a note to clients published on Thursday, analysts at UBS took a long look at Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, and the blockchain technology that underwrites this whole enterprise.

Looking only at pricing, UBS said that, “a twenty-fold increase in bitcoin prices in just two years, and an absence of any fundamental economic backing, cryptocurrency prices are almost certainly a bubble.”

Blockchain utility doesn't make crypto not a bubble. That'll be important to remember for people buying now expecting to make big gains at this cost basis, and there's real risk there.
Bitcoin right now really looks like a bubble if seen on the perspective of them who does not use bitcoin regularly. They dont know what is sustaining bitcoin to it's current prices but I think no bubble can be so resilient like bitcoin is. Still, Bitcoin might be a bubble because even if it is increased twenty fold because of mass adoption, price growth happens too fast. For this reason, I believe that when the expected massive drop comes, it would go way back probably to the price where it should be now.

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October 16, 2017, 03:27:35 AM
 #8

Everything must come to an end the question is how long, but it doesn't apply to Bitcoin. If we continue pumping and pumping, then it blow and burst like bubble, to prevent from this to happen. we need to change the momentum all the time, just like market correction and market oscillation like waves, it is just like making a breathing pattern to sustain for a longer period of time. Since the beginning bitcoin was a bubble according to the experts. If you are an early players of bitcoin you will really know if it is bubble or not, once it will burst you will not regret bitcoin because you were there during its ups and down like riding a roller coaster, an enjoying the moment until its last breath.

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October 16, 2017, 03:33:18 AM
 #9

It's important to distinguish between a bubble and a deflationary currency. Bitcoin is a deflationary currency.
This is a ridiculous post that makes no sense.  It's irrelevant that bitcoin is
deflationary.  Bitcoin is all about supply and demand, and right now the demand is
extremely high.  But what happens if all the jokers who piled into the market suddenly
want to sell at the same time?  BUBBLE POPS.  The deflationary nature of btc
does not rule out such an event.
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October 16, 2017, 03:36:53 AM
 #10

It will always be a bubble. Bitcoin is a bubble. Every time that it will pump up and the price is dumping it is considered a bubble but bitcoin is always regaining it's status and multiple times it did break its own record. Technically, the action seems a bubble.

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October 16, 2017, 03:46:11 AM
 #11

Wall street grows ever more certain Bitcoin is a bubble. I can't even say they're wrong. Flirting with $6000 per coin and low economic utility? For as dumb as Jamie Dimon sounds every time he says anything about Bitcoin, the tulip bubble analogy looks less and less inappropriate all the time.


But the tulip bubble analogy IS inappropriate. How can you compare tulip bulbs to one of the biggest inventions of this century? Did you actually try to understand how BTC works? Do you realize how really big this breakthrough is?
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October 16, 2017, 04:32:22 AM
 #12

Bitcoin is not a bubble because all of its prices are because of the progress of bitcoin and the bubble is only applicable for the altcoins because they are the easy ones to become a bubble because of their cheap price that makes the whale easy to buy them and manipulate them because of the cheaper rate than bitcoin.

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October 16, 2017, 06:11:51 PM
 #13

It has been asked a lot of times, nobody knows if we are really on a bubble, but the price is going up so quickly, and that is why a lot of people and governments are starting to say that we are on a real bubble. And maybe it is true, only because a lot of people are joining this investment to make much more profit.
But nobody knows, maybe it can still go to $10k, maybe $20k, who knows? nobody can predict what is going to happen with it.

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October 16, 2017, 06:16:48 PM
 #14

Wall street grows ever more certain Bitcoin is a bubble. I can't even say they're wrong. Flirting with $6000 per coin and low economic utility? For as dumb as Jamie Dimon sounds every time he says anything about Bitcoin, the tulip bubble analogy looks less and less inappropriate all the time.

Quote
In a note to clients published on Thursday, analysts at UBS took a long look at Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, and the blockchain technology that underwrites this whole enterprise.

Looking only at pricing, UBS said that, “a twenty-fold increase in bitcoin prices in just two years, and an absence of any fundamental economic backing, cryptocurrency prices are almost certainly a bubble.”

Blockchain utility doesn't make crypto not a bubble. That'll be important to remember for people buying now expecting to make big gains at this cost basis, and there's real risk there.

Everyday that goes by, opinions will be expressed with several people coming to make themselves relevant. As much as they have their own facts to have made such conclusion, they should stick to it and allow those who can take the risk do so to the best of their own ability. Wall street and finance experts have known to made rich of their own pocket at the expense of those who put money in their care but when that is being taken away by the advent of crypto-currency one can predict the kind of expression that will bring about.
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October 16, 2017, 06:32:28 PM
 #15

this question asked for 1000 times. and answered 500000 times. And the answer is simple bitcoin is revolution and these words are coming from capital whales.

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October 16, 2017, 06:44:16 PM
 #16

Wall street grows ever more certain Bitcoin is a bubble. I can't even say they're wrong. Flirting with $6000 per coin and low economic utility? For as dumb as Jamie Dimon sounds every time he says anything about Bitcoin, the tulip bubble analogy looks less and less inappropriate all the time.

Quote
In a note to clients published on Thursday, analysts at UBS took a long look at Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, and the blockchain technology that underwrites this whole enterprise.

Looking only at pricing, UBS said that, “a twenty-fold increase in bitcoin prices in just two years, and an absence of any fundamental economic backing, cryptocurrency prices are almost certainly a bubble.”

Blockchain utility doesn't make crypto not a bubble. That'll be important to remember for people buying now expecting to make big gains at this cost basis, and there's real risk there.

FOr me blockchain is the future and certainly not a bubble. as for BTC itself one thing is clear, the price is not driven by demand or growing usecases. the Price is driven by speculation on the future of the technology and on the huge profits it´s been providing. That said when newer and better tech arrives BTC will loose value or will be kept as a store of value asset as it´s proven its strengh . If its a bubble, will now after or if it bursts:)

As for Jamie Dimon we should ask hm, how a huge expert on driving profit out of speculative assets could have missed the biggest one ever. Because even if the bubble bursts, BTC won´t be erased from history:)

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October 16, 2017, 07:05:11 PM
 #17

yeah  a bubble.

at 5500 it was a bubble

at 4500 it was a bubble

at 3500 it was a bubble

at 2500 it was a bubble

at 1500 it was a bubble


To be fair in the fall of 2013 it went from 92 usd to 1200 usd

and by Jan 2015 dropped down to a slow as 180 usd.

So if it did it once it could do it again.
It's not goos but yes, bitcoin is really like a bubble. Why? Because everything can affect it's price like anything can burst bubbles, it just needs some words and ops, bitcoin price can fall or rise by 10% in one day. This means it's easiest to manipulate coin and current price is nothing but a fake combination of numbers by big players in crypto world. It really makes me anxious that china can manipulate bitcoin by saying only one proposal.

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October 16, 2017, 07:18:26 PM
 #18

not yet
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October 16, 2017, 07:52:39 PM
 #19

They gave been saying that for a very long time Warren Buffet said it when bitcoin was at its infancy and no matter what they said , it has continued to grow and grow and this bubble doesn't seem to burst at all.



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October 16, 2017, 08:08:13 PM
 #20

Looking at charts, a case could be made for bitcoin's price peaking at the end of every year since its inception. Every year except 2014, when silk road was shut down. If I'm remembering right, china also banned exchanges or passed some regulation which caused bitcoin's price to decline by a massive margin in 2014. We're nearing year's end and so for those who know bitcoin price movements, it is normal for a peak to occur during this time. Its not necessarily a bubble, this always happens, and has happened every year except 2014, as far as I know.

To add to that, we've had reports of bitcoin's userbase doubling every 12 months. This is the type of exponential growth which rivals a zombie outbreak. It may be fair to say cryptos userbase is growing at a viral pace. This increase in demand hints against a bubble. A doubling bitcoin userbase is analogous to general motors customer base doubling every 12 months. That would represent spectacular growth. It would be marked by a significant increase in year end profits/stock value and so the argument of bitcoin being a bubble may not be the best.

There is an interesting context in this quote here.

Quote
Looking only at pricing, UBS said that, “a twenty-fold increase in bitcoin prices in just two years, and an absence of any fundamental economic backing, cryptocurrency prices are almost certainly a bubble.”

"Absence of fundamental economic backing".

If bitcoin's userbase doubles in a 12 month period can we label that a significant form of fundamental economic backing? If bitcoin trading volume increases significantly, does that qualify as economic backing? The answer to both of these questions may be: yes.

The stance of bitcoin being a bubble may be based more on misinformation and misdefinition of terms than it is economic fundamentals.

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