[OFFICIAL]Bitfinex.com first Bitcoin P2P lending platform for leverage trading

[fig9]

What time is the TH1 dividend payment?  And how much was the first one?

I got a dividend of 0.02BTC from each of my 4 shares (0.08BTC total) at around 11pm PST.

Adjusting for difficulty trends the shares are probably worth 1.5-1.7BTC over their lifespan.

I did some calculations, and they should be worth over 2BTC in dividends if you compound your shares by lending them as swaps at their current interest rate.
This all relies on trading picking up steam however.

I wrote my code to calculate total value based on simply lending your TH as a swap once for the duration. In reality, the dividend return would probably be even higher because you'd compound you swap interest into other swap loans over the course of the TH shares lifetime.

Here is the ruby code for my calculation if curious:
TH = 1
BTC = 0
SwapInterest = 0.0098
SwapReturn = TH * SwapInterest
Dividend = 0.02
Days = 90

for d in 1..Days
   if d % 30 == 0
       # The assumption here is that 1 month of time decreases mining profitability per TH by 1/5. Modify if you believe otherwise.
       Dividend = Dividend * 0.8
   end

   BTC = BTC + TH * Dividend
   TH = TH + SwapReturn
end

BTC

[DoubleSwapper]

I've encountered yet another bug in the BFX swap system regarding wrong durations. A swap in my "provided list" has just popped up showing 27 days when this was never issued by me and wasn't in the book just 5 hours ago while showing it has been taken nearly 2 days ago. I've written to the BFX support. No idea what is happening at the moment but they should better get their lending system cleaned up. There are quite a few bugs popping up at the moment.

I think there is a glitch as I've found the same. There is a 'swap provided' in my account for BTC at the FRR rate/30-days issued just a couple hours ago ... I never set at FRR and all my BTC was lent yesterday for only 4-5 days. I would never lend for 30 days. This is a serious glitch ... now my BTC is tied up for 30 days ?!?

Thanks for the confirmation. Write to BFX support to get that fixed as soon as possible. I've already notified them and they have also answered but haven't closed the swap yet. Something similar has happened before and they have cleared that up but it has taken a few hours.

[nrd525]

What time is the TH1 dividend payment?  And how much was the first one?

I got a dividend of 0.02BTC from each of my 4 shares (0.08BTC total) at around 11pm PST.

Adjusting for difficulty trends the shares are probably worth 1.5-1.7BTC over their lifespan.

I did some calculations, and they should be worth over 2BTC in dividends if you compound your shares by lending them as swaps at their current interest rate.
This all relies on trading picking up steam however.

I wrote my code to calculate total value based on simply lending your TH as a swap once for the duration. In reality, the dividend return would probably be even higher because you'd compound you swap interest into other swap loans over the course of the TH shares lifetime.

Here is the ruby code for my calculation if curious:
TH = 1
BTC = 0
SwapInterest = 0.0098
SwapReturn = TH * SwapInterest
Dividend = 0.02
Days = 90

for d in 1..Days
   if d % 30 == 0
       # The assumption here is that 1 month of time decreases mining profitability per TH by 1/5. Modify if you believe otherwise.
       Dividend = Dividend * 0.8
   end

   BTC = BTC + TH * Dividend
   TH = TH + SwapReturn
end

BTC

Thanks for the info.  Kind of strange that the dividend payment would work out to a round number!

I think the contract is worth 1.2 BTC (10% difficulty increase) - plus the swap value.   The swap value is very puzzling.  I tend to think it should fall to near zero (or 10% APR) under a free market.  Not sure what is propping it up.

Wow the price just plummeted from 1.8 to 1.3.

[fig9]

What time is the TH1 dividend payment?  And how much was the first one?

I got a dividend of 0.02BTC from each of my 4 shares (0.08BTC total) at around 11pm PST.

Adjusting for difficulty trends the shares are probably worth 1.5-1.7BTC over their lifespan.

I did some calculations, and they should be worth over 2BTC in dividends if you compound your shares by lending them as swaps at their current interest rate.
This all relies on trading picking up steam however.

I wrote my code to calculate total value based on simply lending your TH as a swap once for the duration. In reality, the dividend return would probably be even higher because you'd compound you swap interest into other swap loans over the course of the TH shares lifetime.

Here is the ruby code for my calculation if curious:
TH = 1
BTC = 0
SwapInterest = 0.0098
SwapReturn = TH * SwapInterest
Dividend = 0.02
Days = 90

for d in 1..Days
   if d % 30 == 0
       # The assumption here is that 1 month of time decreases mining profitability per TH by 1/5. Modify if you believe otherwise.
       Dividend = Dividend * 0.8
   end

   BTC = BTC + TH * Dividend
   TH = TH + SwapReturn
end

BTC

Thanks for the info.  Kind of strange that the dividend payment would work out to a round number!

I think the contract is worth 1.2 BTC (10% difficulty increase) - plus the swap value.   The swap value is very puzzling.  I tend to think it should fall to near zero (or 10% APR) under a free market.  Not sure what is propping it up.

Total value, being based heavily on the swap interest value, decreases exponentially over time. So since total value decreases exponentially, people who sell short towards the beginning of the lifecycle of the TH share will be able to capture profit from selling after 1 or 2 months with an exponential decrease in the trading price. They pay 1 or 2 months of dividends in swap fees, which are linear. This means that if they enter and exit correctly they should come out on top, while also allowing the swap provider to gain compounding dividends. The possible losers in this ecosystem come from people who enter/exit based on speculation, in which case their gains/losses are largely luck based.

[nrd525]

Are the swap fees linear?  Or will they decline as the price of the TH1 asset declines?

[fig9]

Are the swap fees linear?  Or will they decline as the price of the TH1 asset declines?

Good point, they probably won't be quite linear, but they won't be on the same exponential scale. And if you offer a long swap duration you could get closer to a linear return.

[komar]

A new ugly chart for TH1 swap:



(couldn't find this one on bxfdata.com)

[komar]

And some estimations for today:

Code:

Estimated "true" TH1 income for 90 days:
if difficulty will get +30% every adjust: 0.765032 BTC;
if difficulty will get +20% every adjust: 0.919727 BTC;
if difficulty will get +15% every adjust: 1.023131 BTC;
if difficulty will get +10% every adjust: 1.151170 BTC;
if difficulty will get + 5% every adjust: 1.312023 BTC;
if difficulty will get + 0% every adjust: 1.517354 BTC;
if difficulty will get - 5% every adjust: 1.784133 BTC;
if difficulty will get -10% every adjust: 2.137610 BTC;

Source code: https://github.com/apsheronets/divananalit/blob/master/sim.ml
You can also see past difficulty adjustments here.
TH1 is definitely overpiced.

Added: whoops, it just fell down to 1.11 BTC. Not overpriced anymore. :)
Added 2: screw it, the orderbook is empty.

[unclescrooge]

I've encountered yet another bug in the BFX swap system regarding wrong durations. A swap in my "provided list" has just popped up showing 27 days when this was never issued by me and wasn't in the book just 5 hours ago while showing it has been taken nearly 2 days ago. I've written to the BFX support. No idea what is happening at the moment but they should better get their lending system cleaned up. There are quite a few bugs popping up at the moment.

I think there is a glitch as I've found the same. There is a 'swap provided' in my account for BTC at the FRR rate/30-days issued just a couple hours ago ... I never set at FRR and all my BTC was lent yesterday for only 4-5 days. I would never lend for 30 days. This is a serious glitch ... now my BTC is tied up for 30 days ?!?

Thanks for the confirmation. Write to BFX support to get that fixed as soon as possible. I've already notified them and they have also answered but haven't closed the swap yet. Something similar has happened before and they have cleared that up but it has taken a few hours.

Hello guys,

I replied to such a request by email although I am not sure which one it is.

We are working on it

Have a good day
Raphael

[Timetwister]

And some estimations for today:

Code:

Estimated "true" TH1 income for 90 days:
if difficulty will get +30% every adjust: 0.765032 BTC;
if difficulty will get +20% every adjust: 0.919727 BTC;
if difficulty will get +15% every adjust: 1.023131 BTC;
if difficulty will get +10% every adjust: 1.151170 BTC;
if difficulty will get + 5% every adjust: 1.312023 BTC;
if difficulty will get + 0% every adjust: 1.517354 BTC;
if difficulty will get - 5% every adjust: 1.784133 BTC;
if difficulty will get -10% every adjust: 2.137610 BTC;

Source code: https://github.com/apsheronets/divananalit/blob/master/sim.ml
You can also see past difficulty adjustments here.
TH1 is definitely overpiced.

Added: whoops, it just fell down to 1.11 BTC. Not overpriced anymore.
Added 2: screw it, the orderbook is empty.

It's underpriced then, unless you expect a very big jump in difficulty, when you take into account the interest from lending it.

[Timetwister]

Do you get both dividends and interest if you buy TH1 and then lend it?

[komar]

It's underpriced then, unless you expect a very big jump in difficulty, when you take into account the interest from lending it.

I expect 5%-20% jumps in difficulty every 2 weeks.

[bearproof]

Seems FRR on swap offers is 0.03996 right now but on the web interface it is reported as 0.04000, also from the API, can you fix this?

[Timetwister]

It's underpriced then, unless you expect a very big jump in difficulty, when you take into account the interest from lending it.

I expect 5%-20% jumps in difficulty every 2 weeks.

It will depend mainly on the bitcoin price in USD. As long as it doesn't increase significantly, I'd expect small difficulty jumps, like the last months.

I have bought some TH1 to lend them, so I can find out how it works in practice.

[mjr]

Hi All,

I hope that things have been well. I have been travelling for the Voorhees wedding, so sorry if I have not been around a lot. So far, it does not seem like a lot has been going on. To remind everyone, if you have a support question, the best way to have it resolved is to send an email to our support team (support@bitfinex.com). This forum is hard to search, hard to filter, and hard to post replies with any decent formatting.

Here is what I have gleaned from the last few weeks:

• There was a bug in the swaps duration, which has been fixed.
• We released a new mining contract, which is still in Beta but seems to be somewhat popular, and is stabilizing.
• There has been some demand for left-alignment of a column on the credit page (https://www.bitfinex.com/credit - number of swap contracts).

We still have quite a few things that we are working on, and we are busy working on some killer new features. I am still putting together a new FAQ, but we are aggregating a lot of changes, and trying to simplify and clarify a few things.

We should have some more announcements coming soon, so please stay tuned (you will receive any announcements in your email, or by checking https://www.bitfinex.com/pages/announcements).

I will be around all day, if you want to chat.

-Josh

[mjr]

Seems FRR on swap offers is 0.03996 right now but on the web interface it is reported as 0.04000, also from the API, can you fix this?

How are you arriving at the numbers? I am looking into this, and wanted to verify and reproduce this.

-Josh

[DoubleSwapper]

Hi All,

I hope that things have been well. I have been travelling for the Voorhees wedding, so sorry if I have not been around a lot. So far, it does not seem like a lot has been going on. To remind everyone, if you have a support question, the best way to have it resolved is to send an email to our support team (support@bitfinex.com). This forum is hard to search, hard to filter, and hard to post replies with any decent formatting.

Here is what I have gleaned from the last few weeks:

• There was a bug in the swaps duration, which has been fixed.
• We released a new mining contract, which is still in Beta but seems to be somewhat popular, and is stabilizing.
• There has been some demand for left-alignment of a column on the credit page (https://www.bitfinex.com/credit - number of swap contracts).

We still have quite a few things that we are working on, and we are busy working on some killer new features. I am still putting together a new FAQ, but we are aggregating a lot of changes, and trying to simplify and clarify a few things.

We should have some more announcements coming soon, so please stay tuned (you will receive any announcements in your email, or by checking https://www.bitfinex.com/pages/announcements).

I will be around all day, if you want to chat.

-Josh

There definitely was a bug in the swaps duration. Whether it has been fixed I don't know. I think you are referring to the reduction of the swap duration when offers are partially closed or something along that line.
My Problem has not been fixed so far. I'm in contact with the support and Giancarlo says they are investigating it but the longterm swap is still there.
No idea what's the situation for the other guy Indamuck who has his bitcoins locked away in a 30 day swap.

I've also noticed yet another bug again that is commonly mentioned here. There is yet another 1 day swap in my offer list again which was supposedly taken out like 6 hours ago along with other swaps. These other swaps of this timeframe are at 2 days while this one is at 19 hours, no idea how that happens all the time but I sure wish I could reproduce it.  

[mjr]

Hi,

We are definitely looking into this. Apparently, there are still some bugs, but they are being worked on. Thanks for the information. I will keep you updated as to our progress.

-Josh

[windjc]

I have a deposit of BTC I sent from Bistamp to Bitfinex that is not showing up. This is the first time I have sent a deposit since you changed your deposit format on the site. I copied and pasted the deposit wallet address from my "trading" account. Afterwards the address changed. Which I thought was weird.

At any rate, the deposit is confirmed on the blockchain, but is not showing up in my account. I have sent an email to support, but I am not crazy about having to wait 24 hours to get my 171 BTC back.

Please advise.

[komar]

It will depend mainly on the bitcoin price in USD. As long as it doesn't increase significantly, I'd expect small difficulty jumps, like the last months.

I have bought some TH1 to lend them, so I can find out how it works in practice.

I believe there is no reason for ASIC owners to turn their miners off. At least when BTC price is higher than spended electricity. And "higher" doesn't mean "more than $500", it's more like "more than $50".

So I will not going long with price higher than 0.9 BTC.

And don't forget to monitor this: https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty