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Author Topic: Is PrimeDice really (provably)fair?  (Read 32043 times)
Stunna
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January 23, 2014, 02:37:11 AM
Last edit: January 23, 2014, 02:54:28 AM by Stunna
 #181

flip the coin 20000 times and come back.
12,14,22,25 is normal with 49.5%

Spin your doge 20000 times and come back..

According to your screenshots, you've made over 378 million bets.
With that many bets, losing 14 in a row at some point isn't surprising.


Nope, that's just the Bet ID.

He made 38,317 bets though before busting which makes this highly likely.

@Airflame: I'm sorry you lost your .22 coins but such is the risk of gambling and when you are making that many rolls the likelihood of that sort of bust is quite substantial. Feel free to direct any and all blame at me regardless of the math.

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zolace
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January 23, 2014, 11:50:18 AM
Last edit: January 23, 2014, 12:47:04 PM by zolace
 #182

flip the coin 20000 times and come back.
12,14,22,25 is normal with 49.5%

Spin your doge 20000 times and come back..

According to your screenshots, you've made over 378 million bets.
With that many bets, losing 14 in a row at some point isn't surprising.


Nope, that's just the Bet ID.

He made 38,317 bets though before busting which makes this highly likely.

@Airflame: I'm sorry you lost your .22 coins but such is the risk of gambling and when you are making that many rolls the likelihood of that sort of bust is quite substantial. Feel free to direct any and all blame at me regardless of the math.




sounds fair if thet guy bet that much on the site, possible chances to happen are around those odds.  I read it some where that we bet so fast that we dont realize how many bets we put in, that we will bust before we will ever know it. Thats how fast the betting system works.  So dude if you had bet that much is possible to get a loss streak of 12.


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January 23, 2014, 03:10:33 PM
 #183

Not sure what the issue is...I've had loss streaks of 14, 15, 16 even.  It's just math, you can check around the web and find that it's possible/probable given enough rolls.

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January 23, 2014, 05:23:59 PM
 #184

some time when you are playing too much you have to face streak like this I also have same problem on many sites and never think about fair policy of the site its luck  Wink

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April 06, 2014, 05:14:57 PM
 #185

  :|



gfys primedice

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April 06, 2014, 05:55:37 PM
 #186

 agin :|


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April 06, 2014, 06:21:17 PM
 #187

 :|



gfys primedice

there was a 0.0069% chance of that happening.  (0.604)^19 = 0.000069  damn..
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April 06, 2014, 08:06:31 PM
 #188

 :|



gfys primedice

there was a 0.0069% chance of that happening.  (0.604)^19 = 0.000069  damn..

It is not completely planned
I have 3 different Agant consecutive wins after increasing inventory and more and has it happened

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April 06, 2014, 08:22:47 PM
 #189

I deposited 0.02 BTC and immediately failed - lost 5 times 0.001-0.002-0.004-0.008-0.005 !!
Then I deposited 0.02 BTC again and lost 0.001-0.002-0.004-0.008 again!! But I doubled remaining 0.005 BTC and managed slowly to go to 0.044 BTC, after what withdrew)
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April 06, 2014, 09:05:26 PM
 #190



50 = 0.00050000
100
200
400
800
1600
3200
6400
12800
25600
51200
102400
204800
409600
819200
1638400
3276800
6553600
13107200
26214400

=20 x losse

52428750 + 000 = 524.28750000

600 btc need for bet 0.00050000 and no losse

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April 07, 2014, 03:04:46 AM
 #191

And if any of the "dices" random generators are bad, then you can just flip it and make it good for the player. Just bet the other way and you will have the "dices" on your side.

So instead of losing more than normal, you should be winning more than normal.

Did you read my conclusion ? 

Conclusion:
So you can play dices and you can win, if the dices running on your side. And then you
can win more than normal. (More than a good random generator will generate) But if the dices are not
on your side, then you can also loose more than normal.


I did around 4000 bet i think... for me enough

Sorry for the really late reply, but my point still stands. Just bet the other way. Then instead of losing more than normal, you would win more than normal.

The dices is never on anyones side, but you just have to pick the side the dices are on. How? I don't know, if I did, I would be winning all the time huh.

My answer would be the same towards your conclusion. As long as your conclusion says the site is not fair, or the dices are on the other side, one simply has to go to that other side.

If the dices are fair, or close to 50%, then it does not matter which side you are on, you will win half the time and lose half the time.

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a1choi
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April 07, 2014, 04:28:14 AM
 #192



50 = 0.00050000
100
200
400
800
1600
3200
6400
12800
25600
51200
102400
204800
409600
819200
1638400
3276800
6553600
13107200
26214400

=20 x losse

52428750 + 000 = 524.28750000

600 btc need for bet 0.00050000 and no losse

and that is the risk of martingale.
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April 30, 2014, 09:18:00 PM
 #193

PD can easily be rigged and this is a fact

If it's rigged only Stunna knows and no one can prove anything

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April 30, 2014, 09:37:22 PM
 #194

I can't decide if this is funny or sad, please help me...

PD Stunna accusing others for not being provably fair while running not provably fair site and advertising on his thread banner that PD is provably fair while it's not



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April 30, 2014, 10:10:20 PM
 #195

Do you even understand what Provably Fair means?

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enno
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April 30, 2014, 11:50:24 PM
 #196

Didn't read the whole thread but just played a bit...

When it comes to automated betting the user has no chance to change the client seed on every roll but PD has indeed the possibility to generate a server seed to his hown favour.

Example:

- PD knows the next roll will have the old client seed + incremented number. like if it was "abcdef-0001" it will be "abcdef-0002" for the next roll.
- PD knows the user is playing < 49.5 thus for the user to lose it needs a number > 49.5 and all PD needs to do is generating a server seed which will result in a number > 49.5 (actually I don't know if the server seed is generated transparently on the client side, which would prove my arguments invalid or - as the name suggests itself - on the server side)
- Generating a favourable number is trivial when you know the daily secret plus the client seed and can change the server seed at your discretion:

Code:
$seed  = 'daily secret';
$nextclient = 'abcdef-0002';

do {
   $server = rand(0,999999999);
   $hash = hash('sha512', $seed . $server . $nextclient);
   $value = substr($hash, 0, 8);
   $dice = round(hexdec($value)/42949672.95,2);
} while ($dice < 49.5);

echo 'Next server seed should be ' . $server . ' and will result in number ' . $dice;
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May 01, 2014, 12:20:43 AM
 #197

Users can change the client seed at will on PD.

Code:
$.getScript('//crypto-js.googlecode.com/svn/tags/3.1.2/build/rollups/sha512.js');

var betPayload = {
    bet: 0,
    game: 49.5,
    type: 0,
    client_seed: 0,
    token: 'xxx'
};

var count = 0;

var bot_bet = function(max_bets) {
  if(++count > max_bets) return;
  betPayload.client_seed = CryptoJS.SHA512(Math.random().toString()).toString();
  $.post(
    '/api/bet.php',
    betPayload,
    function(data) {
      data = JSON.parse(data);
      console.log(data);
      //do some bet logic
      setTimeout(bot_bet(max_bets), 500);
    }
  );
}
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May 01, 2014, 12:33:44 AM
 #198

I stated what I wanted to say here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=590594.msg6481848#msg6481848

LN and myself are discussing via PM how we can remedy our argument as well. In summary our current system is provably fair but not ideal and will be improved upon with user feedback in PD3, but it is very easy to make it 100% provably fair by changing your client seed. The main thing I think should be pushed for is an open source project where "provably fair" is created, right now any website can claim to be provably fair with any sort of implementation. Ideally what will happen is only websites that run a specific version of provable fairness will be considered provably fair. The difficulty is creating such a system on an off-chain site that does not inconvenience the user (force them to change a seed frequently).

-Stunna



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May 01, 2014, 03:05:09 AM
 #199

Stunna, your competitors (specifically JD and CR) don't get the same accusations. They are Provably Fair as far as players are concerned. I believe you can just simply use the same system and dooglus already gave open permission to copy his method.

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May 01, 2014, 03:18:19 AM
 #200

Being an unregulated gambling site they can fix the odds as much as they want.

Some modified martingale systems can push the odds in your favor for awhile but you will eventually lose.

They have some type of bot to detect a standard martingale. <:-| *tinfoilhat

All in all, don't go to primedice with more than you're willing to lose.

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