Calling top at $16500 (New speculation: Guess the price 19 Feb 2021!)

[starblocks]

Hello,

Its been a while.

Imagine for a second that we are nearing the blow off top, I'm looking out for where we might ultimately form a new baseline (background)

I'm going to say ~$3700 looks good



As you all know, this run up started around $200

$200 to $3700 is $3500 increase. If we do a fib retrace of 78.6%, working the math we end up with that $3500 representing 12.4% of the overall expected gain before it corrects. That gives 3500/0.124 => $16300 gain.

$16,300 + starting point of $200 = $16,500

If it touches anywhere below $5,000 no matter how momentarily that would be a great value buy

A lot more investors would leap at the chance to get it as cheap as $3,700!

[1715312991]

1715312991

[1715312991]

1715312991

[1715312991]

1715312991

[1715312991]

1715312991

[1715312991]

1715312991

[sgbett]

<snip>
And guess what, this is EXACTLY what you would expect from a new technology heading towards mass adoption. This is exactly what an S-curve looks like. Normally an S-curve doesn't have boom-bust cycles because normally things that are mass adopted are just products you buy and aren't an asset that you buy a "share" of and so there is no market and therefore no speculation which is what causes booms and busts.
<snip>

Thankyou for schooling me so hard on Bitcoin price being an s-curve overlaid with hype cycle. I don't think I ever saw that, except for that time 3 years ago when i posted a very long thread explaining it.

Or that other time when I explained that the fractal hype cycle just repeats but each time is bigger because the weight of the market means there is more inertia.

What you might also notice in that thread, is that I'm counting the run-up to 266 as a pre-cursor to the subsequent "real" run-up to $1260.

That's because I was also around when the run up to  ~$9 was followed by a mini-crash to ~$5

So where others are comparing this run up to the $1260 one, I'm saying its actually the $260 one. If it goes back to 6-7k or even 3-4k I'm still calling it a "mini-crash". Can you see the implications of that? Can you see how even though someone think bitcoin is going to at least 6/7 figures they can still think clearly enough to understand how it is possible that it might retrace 80% following a run-up like we just saw.

So where you mistake me for a bear, I am in fact probably one of the most bullish on Bitcoin that there is. Nothing's changed except the name of the client that follows the bitcoin white paper imho. This thread isn't about that though, but you did bring it up

I reject entirely your characterisation of the minor-corrections during the run up as "crashes". It make me think you have never been through an actual bitcoin *crash* let alone watched thousands of dollars evaporate, all the whilst HODLing.

[sgbett]

Also for the various "but on exchange X it was a gajillion dollars"

I tend to look at stamp because I'm in europe and and for me it represents the most stable price, offering as it does only to exchange money for BTC/LTC and now BCH.

I find it to be the most honest reflection of the market price, one of the oldest exchanges been around since gox.

I know other exchanges traded at a premium, but thats exactly what it was a *premium* to what you  might call the actual price. I watched the GDAX run up live and observed how no other exchanges went with it, and then 15 mins later poof it was gone.

So yeah, by those exchanges I was miles out. If thats what you want to think

[Batmain]

Well a correction is obviously incoming after the past few days. But obviously it's not going to go down that low haha. I expect just as all the other crashes this year it will go back to the base price of the current boom - $11k-$12k. It will recover back up to the ATH in a matter of days or weeks and we'll be over $20k not too long from now.

Bitocin has not experienced a major correction (crash) this year. Everything to date has been pretty tame. Look at the $60-$1200 sunup, lots of up and down along the way. Then you get the *real* correction.

This is because of the global demand. But I think we can apply mathematics to have the accurate price of BTC, the buying and selling are happening in real time and there's no way to predict that, unless some of the whales are talking to each other "Hey let's pump the market". We maybe have some historical data on that and we can count the average increase but we can never who will buy and how much the demand will rise.

In my prediction it will be 20-21k at the end of the year.

[d5000]

Theres no way to have a "multi-year bear market" anymore, because at that time, there were very few use cases for bitcoin

And now, there are even less use cases. Did you see the Valve news? The use case "as a currency" has taken a big hit this year.

Now you may think that I'm a BCH shill or big blocker, but no, on-chain scaling for me is not the solution. In my opinion, the long-term goal is a combination of LN and decentralized sidechains or extension blocks, and altcoins like XCN or Ardor with mini-blockchain schemes for the "play money" use cases. The problem is that pegged (and decentralized!) sidechains, an important component of this ecosystem, are still far away, and LN alone won't solve all problems.

Another problem is the belief in a "digital gold". Bitcoin will never be digital gold. Nobody buys Bitcoin to get <10% p.a. as return or to "simply maintain the value". Bitcoin has only two options:
- being a highly speculative asset forever (having "to da moon!!!!" and "Bitcoin is dead!!!!" phases every 2-3 years)
- it matures, and becomes a real currency/payment system. Only then it can also be a "store of value", because then it has a direct connection to the real economy, so a real value theory can be built.

Overall, I agree with the OP and I think he could be very probably right with his "top call". What I don't know is how tomorrow and Monday will play out, with the new futures coming out. That could lead to extreme price fluctuations (like before the "ETF decision" in March) and so a new top near 20K isn't impossible.

[virtualkeybuyer]

Also for the various "but on exchange X it was a gajillion dollars"

I tend to look at stamp because I'm in europe and and for me it represents the most stable price, offering as it does only to exchange money for BTC/LTC and now BCH.

I find it to be the most honest reflection of the market price, one of the oldest exchanges been around since gox.

I know other exchanges traded at a premium, but thats exactly what it was a *premium* to what you  might call the actual price. I watched the GDAX run up live and observed how no other exchanges went with it, and then 15 mins later poof it was gone.

So yeah, by those exchanges I was miles out. If thats what you want to think

Yeah it was at top but people sold their coin for the price they were waiting for and now prices are again back at the 13k and maybe this is the chance to buy but only smart people will avail this chance the dumb people will say it will come down more they will be wrong because at this time this fall is very big and people will cash out this chance and we will see in coming days prices will be above 20k and it will happen,

[sgbett]

Nah, the smart people know that they don’t know for sure what is going to happen. They assign a probability to each scenario and hedge accordingly.

[Remember remember the 5th of November]

Nah, the smart people know that they don’t know for sure what is going to happen. They assign a probability to each scenario and hedge accordingly.

In order to assign a probability you need to have some data points/variables to plug in an equation.

[sgbett]

Nah, the smart people know that they don’t know for sure what is going to happen. They assign a probability to each scenario and hedge accordingly.

In order to assign a probability you need to have some data points/variables to plug in an equation.

That doesn't sound like speculation to me

Here comes the test....

[Torque]

It's back at your top there, sgbett. 

[ask]

Fantastic analysis and i am thinking the exactly same.
I am waiting a hard correction move to below 10000 and this will happen anytime and very soon.
keep up the good work.

[Lieldoryn]

Don't understand those people who wait for falling prices of bitcoin. Perhaps you want to buy cheap coins? But this requires certain conditions. I don't see such conditions. The price of bitcoin even when the most severe adjustments will not be below $ 13,000. you can leave your dreams and buy coins now because then you'll have to buy them at $ 20,000.

[olazet1993]

It's back at your top there, sgbett.  

Uping the topic is allowed?

[fabiorem]

Correction is over. Now to 20k and beyond.

[VuLDK]

Hello,

Its been a while.

Imagine for a second that we are nearing the blow off top, I'm looking out for where we might ultimately form a new baseline (background)

I'm going to say ~$3700 looks good



As you all know, this run up started around $200

$200 to $3700 is $3500 increase. If we do a fib retrace of 78.6%, working the math we end up with that $3500 representing 12.4% of the overall expected gain before it corrects. That gives 3500/0.124 => $16300 gain.

$16,300 + starting point of $200 = $16,500

bitcoin prices are very volatile. I think at the moment should keep bitcoin, should not buy at this time

[Ayiranorea]

Correction is over. Now to 20k and beyond.

I too have the thinking that price correction has got over. Now it's heading towards the next targeted price of $20k,and now the price has crossed the $16500 mark. By the start or at least by the first quarter I believe bitcoin will go above $20000 to make the price reach as speculated by most people.

[Makka]

Correction is over. Now to 20k and beyond.

I too have the thinking that price correction has got over. Now it's heading towards the next targeted price of $20k,and now the price has crossed the $16500 mark. By the start or at least by the first quarter I believe bitcoin will go above $20000 to make the price reach as speculated by most people.

Still not over I guess. We have CME also coming up so who knows. I just don't like these Wall Street manipulators. I am confident though that Bitcoin reaches $20,000 this month.

[alyssa85]

Correction is over. Now to 20k and beyond.

I too have the thinking that price correction has got over. Now it's heading towards the next targeted price of $20k,and now the price has crossed the $16500 mark. By the start or at least by the first quarter I believe bitcoin will go above $20000 to make the price reach as speculated by most people.

Still not over I guess. We have CME also coming up so who knows. I just don't like these Wall Street manipulators. I am confident though that Bitcoin reaches $20,000 this month.

Will the futures on CME be any different from the futures on CBOE?

The thing about the mainstream traders is they have no experience at all with an asset as volatile as bitcoin. And they have no experience in trading something where the exchanges are open 24/7. They also don't have experience of trading something that is on multiple exchanges around the world - most of the stuff they trade is on just one exchange. They're going to get a shock.

[sgbett]

Correction is over. Now to 20k and beyond.

I too have the thinking that price correction has got over. Now it's heading towards the next targeted price of $20k,and now the price has crossed the $16500 mark. By the start or at least by the first quarter I believe bitcoin will go above $20000 to make the price reach as speculated by most people.

Still not over I guess. We have CME also coming up so who knows. I just don't like these Wall Street manipulators. I am confident though that Bitcoin reaches $20,000 this month.

Will the futures on CME be any different from the futures on CBOE?

The thing about the mainstream traders is they have no experience at all with an asset as volatile as bitcoin. And they have no experience in trading something where the exchanges are open 24/7. They also don't have experience of trading something that is on multiple exchanges around the world - most of the stuff they trade is on just one exchange. They're going to get a shock.

I'm not so sure. A single exchange isn't open 24/7 but exchanges worldwide are. To me the fact everyone thinks that all the bitcoin traders and HODLers are a match for wall street is just further evidence that people have lost their minds! We are bang on "return to normal", don't make me post "that chart" ...

no...

don't do it...

argh too late:




These guys have trillions in derivatives. Once wall street has their future positions 10-100x the size of the actual market, then it becomes cheap (and in fact very profitable) for them to move the price wherever they want it to be.

Or I'm wrong, and these wall street guys are all country bumpkins about to be taken to the cleaners by some crypto wannabe day traders

Another steep leg down here is all we need to create a little fear - that double top that's forming looks a bit ominous... of course, I know "its designed to shake out weak hands" so I continue to HODL what I have (never go full fiat) but just be both honest about & ready for what may be coming. It's better for your health.

[fabiorem]

These guys have trillions in derivatives. Once wall street has their future positions 10-100x the size of the actual market, then it becomes cheap (and in fact very profitable) for them to move the price wherever they want it to be.

Only if they hold most of bitcoins in their custody, like it happens with gold and silver.