Calling top at $16500 (New speculation: Guess the price 19 Feb 2021!)

[sgbett]

Hat Gang in the house!

tl;dr - the bottom is in (dont expect any sudden moves though, could take months before it resolves).

Oh I don't doubt this could go all the way to 10k, but this not a new run-up, and I don't think that was really the bottom.

I know I called the bottom, and here we are its going up.

Like any sane person should I re-evaluate my beliefs based on new information. It will continue to go up, but I realise now that this isn't the next run up, it's a suckers rally. Hence why I corrected my former post.

Torque - you mad bro? You seem mad, when you say stuff like

... you can still p2p digital cash to anyone and the transaction fees are lowest they've ever been.

I gotta wonder which coin you are looking at!

[1715325127]

1715325127

[1715325127]

1715325127

[Torque]

I gotta wonder which coin you are looking at!

Do u even Lightning, bro? I suppose not. Too busy P2P "transactioning" with exactly no one on the BSV chain.  

And exchange whales colluding and HF wash trading to run up BTC transaction fees doesn't exactly represent true P2P merchant transactions in my book.   But you can go on believing whatever delusion you want.

U mad bro?

[JohnTask]

But you can go on believing whatever delusion you want.

You mean "BTC is the real bitcoin", that one?

U emotional, bro?

[sgbett]

Do u even Lightning, bro?

You said it was optional, and that p2p fees were the lowest ever. Which is it?

...exchange whales colluding and HF wash trading to run up BTC transaction fees...

lolwut

[fabiorem]

Do u even Lightning, bro?

You said it was optional, and that p2p fees were the lowest ever. Which is it?

...exchange whales colluding and HF wash trading to run up BTC transaction fees...

lolwut

LN is optional. However, the more people using it to buy coffee, the better for those using the main chain.

[Wexlike]

Don't go down with the sinking ship.

[gentlemand]

For better or worse, almost certainly worse, I don't think it's going anywhere. They're going to keep their sham twitching as a matter of pride.

Expect some new piece of shit exchanges to pop up where the volume is magically enormous because that's what they programmed into their ZX Spectrum. Or rather they paid to have programmed because Craigy can't do it.

It's been glorious to watch all the same.

In time they'll be forgotten cocksuckers like all the other dead bodies left behind, but it'll be yet another example of what happens when you try to buck consensus rather than work with it. How many times does it need to happen before it being a bad idea sinks in?

[figmentofmyass]

imagine banking on craig wright's fork and having all the exchanges delist your coin. ouch! that was always the biggest market risk for BSV supporters---the guy is/was a huge liability.

i'm not thrilled with bitcoin's slow and unwieldy consensus process but like gentlemand said..... this is what happens when you try to buck consensus.

[sgbett]

So much anger and desperation. Doesn’t really portray confidence. In fact it looks like fear and insecurity.

Keep watching, BSV is doing things you can’t even comprehend, because you still haven’t even figured out the p2p cash bit. All you can see is the exchange rate. The twitter drama. The hubris.

2gigameg blocks is really gonna tweak that vein in your heads.

Best of all you don’t even have the slightest idea *why* it’s necessary, because you haven’t paid attention to anything.

[exstasie]

So much anger and desperation. Doesn’t really portray confidence. In fact it looks like fear and insecurity.

Keep watching, BSV is doing things you can’t even comprehend, because you still haven’t even figured out the p2p cash bit. All you can see is the exchange rate. The twitter drama. The hubris.

2gigameg blocks is really gonna tweak that vein in your heads.

Best of all you don’t even have the slightest idea *why* it’s necessary, because you haven’t paid attention to anything.

I'm not too worried about BSV. To each his own. I'm all for different coins pursuing different scaling methods. Why not?

At heart, I have a hoarding goldbug type mentality so I really appreciate Bitcoin's approach to scaling. The idea of a hard cap on supply is already a risky proposition (in terms of miner incentive) so I'm glad we have the fee market to bolster miner revenue. It lessens the likelihood we'll ever have to dilute the supply.

[sgbett]

So much anger and desperation. Doesn’t really portray confidence. In fact it looks like fear and insecurity.

Keep watching, BSV is doing things you can’t even comprehend, because you still haven’t even figured out the p2p cash bit. All you can see is the exchange rate. The twitter drama. The hubris.

2gigameg blocks is really gonna tweak that vein in your heads.

Best of all you don’t even have the slightest idea *why* it’s necessary, because you haven’t paid attention to anything.

I'm not too worried about BSV. To each his own. I'm all for different coins pursuing different scaling methods. Why not?

At heart, I have a hoarding goldbug type mentality so I really appreciate Bitcoin's approach to scaling. The idea of a hard cap on supply is already a risky proposition (in terms of miner incentive) so I'm glad we have the fee market to bolster miner revenue. It lessens the likelihood we'll ever have to dilute the supply.

Why thank you. A sane reply!

Yes indeed, and to everyone sticking with BTC - GLHF!

I'm curious how you see the fee market playing out (I assume here) with a limited block size? What kind of dynamic do you see unfolding with on-chain vs off-chain and how that might play into the incentives for miners to continue mining. (The context for that being that I think we are probably agreed that fees need to replace reward, so how doeas that happen in a limited block/higher fee scenario - have you run any numbers on possible values?)

Do you see a problem with the BSV model of high-volume/low-margin? or are you more concerned about consequences of massive blocks? (if so which?)

[sgbett]

The $3,000-$4,000 low will come in the blink of an eye. But first we retest $10,000 and maybe have a double top.

Yes it wont happen overnight, the $3700 bottom could be months/years if it follows the same pattern as before. I'm kinda sceptical it will as I am just as caught up in the euphoria as the next person. (despite being all in BCH, I have some Bitcoin ETF exposure in my pension)

could just keep going up!

See bold - Butthurt OP with no bitcoin’s, trying to influence weak hands & noobs. Nothing to see here. $3700 lol, how can you base any kind of prediction on the Gox debacle which caused that crash.

Try harder next time

Convert some of that Ver shitcoin into bitcoin.

cause and effect.. then it was gox ... this time, finex...

2483 call still in place... people still think it’s not possible

[sgbett]

I revised my original prediction as the initial rebound impulse wasn't as strong as I thought it would be, so the second is likely to be tempered too.



This permabear thinks we've exhausted the impulse down...Next stop 9500. What? say it ain't so why u no bearish? Well, because I think speculators are idiots

Anyone else calling that? No? I didn't think so. Enjoy your swing trade. Don't forget to exit though, because the slide to 2483 will be even slower and all the more excruciating. (ahh, thats the "permabear" sgbett!!! lol)

Probably stick my head in about may time. See how things are going. GL All! (SV is Bitcoin!)

Remember - it goes back up to ~$9500 first

[thecodebear]

goodlord sgbett are you still trying to say we're in a bear market. That ship has long since sailed dude. You did a good job calling the top, but apparently you can't see a bottom when it is staring you in the face for months on end and then leaves you for good. Bitcoin doesn't just randomly break into a bull market after a full bear market and a several month bottoming out phase, only to then sink back into a bear market. Has literally never happened.

It is unbelievable that anyone is still harping on about a bear market 6 weeks into the bull market and 5 months after bitcoin hit its bottom, with it now over double the bottom price.

[gentlemand]

It is unbelievable that anyone is still harping on about a bear market 6 weeks into the bull market and 5 months after bitcoin hit its bottom, with it now over double the bottom price.

I think I'm more appalled that someone other than Calvin has used the word 'gigameg'. That's a fine demonstration of utterly mindless parroting if ever there was one.

Whatever credibility there once was has now officially departed the building.

As for the price action, who knows? It all seems a little silly at present.

[thecodebear]

It is unbelievable that anyone is still harping on about a bear market 6 weeks into the bull market and 5 months after bitcoin hit its bottom, with it now over double the bottom price.

I think I'm more appalled that someone other than Calvin has used the word 'gigameg'. That's a fine demonstration of utterly mindless parroting if ever there was one.

Whatever credibility there once was has now officially departed the building.

As for the price action, who knows? It all seems a little silly at present.

Haha yes when i saw gigameg i was like wtf

[sgbett]

It is unbelievable that anyone is still harping on about a bear market 6 weeks into the bull market and 5 months after bitcoin hit its bottom, with it now over double the bottom price.

I think I'm more appalled that someone other than Calvin has used the word 'gigameg'. That's a fine demonstration of utterly mindless parroting if ever there was one.

Whatever credibility there once was has now officially departed the building.

As for the price action, who knows? It all seems a little silly at present.

There was never any credibility. I am incredible

Hope you all have a plan!

[sgbett]

So I was musing the chart this morning - as you can see upthread I was expecting recovery to $9500 before the final leg down that would be necessary to find the new "base-utility price" with all the speculative value shaken out. An idea that I explained back in 2014.

The sell off at 8.5k is the second time the BTC recovery has failed to meet my expected price target - the first time was when I suggested the initial bounce would be ~16k but instead it failed to breach ~12k late feb and then again early march.

So it got me pondering, and I'll be honest BTC HODLers aint gonna like it, and I think the main reason for that is because its looking increasingly more likely.

So after the final grind down, whats happened in the past is that the ever increasing base-utility price has ultimately arrested the "winter" decline, and is the catalyst for the next speculative run-up.

However, I think in the last few years the utility value of BTC has not increased, and has in fact declined. The focus has quite clearly been on LN and/or Liquid. Using BTC on chain is an after thought, and in fact is actively discouraged by design choices around block size limit and the need to further the idea that tx should happen off chain using LN.

The last run up came off around $3-4k mark, so let's assume that the "utility" value of BTC was around that mark. Possibly a bit more as speculation also causes assets to be undervalued in the bear markets.

It seems conceivable to me that the recent shortfall in recovery of BTC price could be accounted for by declining base utility value. So when it only reached 12 instead of 16k thats a 4k shortfall. Then again yesterday, stalling at 8k instead of running up to 9.5k.

Now i'm not suggesting that utility value accounts for all of that shortfall, just that it is a factor in the price, and the price is a feedback into speculative price action.

Now if we take that idea further, this is where it gets really nasty. If this reversal does lead to a proper crypto winter with an expected slide back down to, say, $2500 and BTC's utility value continues to erode, then that means that there is no base-price increase to trigger the next speculative run up.

I'll leave you all to digest the potential implications.

I'm still "long" BTC via some holdings in an ETF (XBT Provider), because I understand risk. I'm way less long than I was when BTC was $20k though.

I'm also still massively bullish on Bitcoin, just that for me, that is BSV. $560k incoming

[thecodebear]

Ah i see, BSV. That's all you had to say. You're a BSVer. I couldn't understand why in the world you think a second crypto winter would start a month and a half after the last one ended and the bull market just started. This has literally never happened and there is nothing remotely pointing to it, everything points to the exact opposite. But you think BSV, which is dying, is gonna overtake Bitcoin. This explains your mad predictions.

[sgbett]

Ah i see, BSV. That's all you had to say. You're a BSVer. I couldn't understand why in the world you think a second crypto winter would start a month and a half after the last one ended and the bull market just started. This has literally never happened and there is nothing remotely pointing to it, everything points to the exact opposite. But you think BSV, which is dying, is gonna overtake Bitcoin. This explains your mad predictions.

read the entire thread you wing-ding its got nothing to do with me wanting BSV to overtake bitcoin, and everything to do with predicting market behaviour based on historical precedent. pay attention to where I called the top, the initial rebound, the second bottom, the latest rally and now the long slide. You can't see it, I get it.

"This has literally never happened", duh, how about like last time...



...but your join date suggests you simply aren't aware of the history, so I'll give you the benefit of the doubt on that.

However putting the whole thing down to "You're a BSVer" is dumb. It's not reasoning it's the exact opposite. I don't tell you what I want the charts to do, I tell you what I think they are going to do. You can check my post history, I always have.