Calling top at $16500 (New speculation: Guess the price 19 Feb 2021!)

[sgbett]

Ooh, lets take a look at forum sentiment right around mid may 2014....



"the bear market is over, UP UP UP"

[Hyena]

Oh this is you sgbett didn't know you still come to the speculation subforum here. I stopped posting here when segwit happened.

[WinslowIII]

Wtf do you guys support that stupid shitcoin bitcoin cash anyway? Nobody gaf about it, Roger Ver is a douche and it will be left in the dust only matter of time. A fork of this shitcoin (bsv) overtaking bitcoin arfkm? uh, yeah that's gonna happen.
If this guy isn't on meth or coke in this interview I'd be shocked.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V36uuGFo64E

[UnDerDoG81]

Ah i see, BSV. That's all you had to say. You're a BSVer. I couldn't understand why in the world you think a second crypto winter would start a month and a half after the last one ended and the bull market just started. This has literally never happened and there is nothing remotely pointing to it, everything points to the exact opposite. But you think BSV, which is dying, is gonna overtake Bitcoin. This explains your mad predictions.

read the entire thread you wing-ding its got nothing to do with me wanting BSV to overtake bitcoin, and everything to do with predicting market behaviour based on historical precedent. pay attention to where I called the top, the initial rebound, the second bottom, the latest rally and now the long slide. You can't see it, I get it.

"This has literally never happened", duh, how about like last time...



...but your join date suggests you simply aren't aware of the history, so I'll give you the benefit of the doubt on that.

However putting the whole thing down to "You're a BSVer" is dumb. It's not reasoning it's the exact opposite. I don't tell you what I want the charts to do, I tell you what I think they are going to do. You can check my post history, I always have.

Only difference in this chart is, from the ATH to the point "You are here" was in a timespan of 6 months. This time already 1,5 years passed. I don´t think we will go in a Crypto winter for the coming 3 years. Halving is next year.

[WinslowIII]

sgbett sent money to mt gox when it was clear it was collapsing in the hopes of getting some cheap btc. He was a moron then and he's still a moron, going offtrack from bitcoin to bsv is just beyond stupid.

[exstasie]

Wtf do you guys support that stupid shitcoin bitcoin cash anyway? Nobody gaf about it, Roger Ver is a douche and it will be left in the dust only matter of time.

Imagine being on the Craig Wright end of the spectrum!

Ooh, lets take a look at forum sentiment right around mid may 2014....

"the bear market is over, UP UP UP"

There’s more skepticism and disbelief this time. I certainly didn’t expect a bull market to begin this early and I’m cautiously waiting a couple months longer to see where support holds before declaring the bear over for good.

But you’ve got to admit, the monthly trend looks strong. After living through 2015 I know better than to get overconfident as a Bitcoin bear.

[thecodebear]

Ah i see, BSV. That's all you had to say. You're a BSVer. I couldn't understand why in the world you think a second crypto winter would start a month and a half after the last one ended and the bull market just started. This has literally never happened and there is nothing remotely pointing to it, everything points to the exact opposite. But you think BSV, which is dying, is gonna overtake Bitcoin. This explains your mad predictions.

read the entire thread you wing-ding its got nothing to do with me wanting BSV to overtake bitcoin, and everything to do with predicting market behaviour based on historical precedent. pay attention to where I called the top, the initial rebound, the second bottom, the latest rally and now the long slide. You can't see it, I get it.

"This has literally never happened", duh, how about like last time...



...but your join date suggests you simply aren't aware of the history, so I'll give you the benefit of the doubt on that.

However putting the whole thing down to "You're a BSVer" is dumb. It's not reasoning it's the exact opposite. I don't tell you what I want the charts to do, I tell you what I think they are going to do. You can check my post history, I always have.

So let's see, insults, ignoring historical precedent, showing a chart with analysis that in no way matches up with what is happening now showing just how badly off your predictions are, and assuming my join date is when i got into bitcoin...except thats off by 4 years. So good job, wrong on all accounts! Like I said, a BSV altcoiner desperately hoping for a bitcoin crash so his altcoin will magically become bitcoin. And that chart....I mean really, that's the worst analysis of a chart I've seen in my life dude. That wouldn't fool anyone for even a second. If you're gonna post a chart at least make it somewhat believable. A year ago your chart would have made sense, now it just looks like you're losing it and getting desperate. I mean your chart is correct, except the "you are here" sign you must have wrote a year ago. Update it to show "you are here" at the far right just off the graph and you're starting to get the hang of it dude. I suppose it'll be fun to see how long you insist we're still in a bear market as the bull market continues. You're clearly doubling down on that nonsense, will you continue on for weeks? months? years? Well yeah I guess you will be calling for the bottom for another two years since your title says 2021, that's gonna be a rough two years for you to watch probably about an entire bull market occur while saying the bull market never started and we're still in a bear market the entire time. good luck tho haah

[buwaytress]

Either I'm blind or surfing on mobile is clunkier than I already know but couldn't locate the 2021 new 2k++ priceline on Mt Gox.

Nevertheless, strange that I am somewhat in agreement that what everyone has been calling the crypto winter isn't over yet. Because really, I've been waiting for old scenarios to play out and since we're all believers of cycles, I'm loathe to believe that this cycle ended so soon without even really making me that worried.

Need to see every Tom Lee purged before I believe it's over;)

[gentlemand]

I'm loathe to believe that this cycle ended so soon without even really making me that worried.

Was this your first complete cycle?

My second and though it's been boring there was nothing remotely worrying to me. If I had been ludicrous enough to arrive and buy $3 XRP then I'd feel very differently and I'm sure many people do. If you've seen it once the second time around seems more obvious and less alarming.

It would take sub $500 BTC to really get me hot under the collar. A monster poo is possible but the inability to believe it won't happen is also a thing.

Fact of the matter is that no matter what, this time around many, many, many more people will be watching closely for signs of life. In 2015 most had buggered off and moved on. Not so this time.

[sgbett]

Oh this is you sgbett didn't know you still come to the speculation subforum here. I stopped posting here when segwit happened.

I was away for a while, I like to poke the (code)bear from time to time he's ever so worried!

This is the best place to find out what's going on in the noggins of BTC die hards.

UnDerDoG81 you seem more open to discussion so you might be interested in where I explained my thinking on that.

To recap, the bigger the market (cap/participant count) the longer the cycle takes to play out. I scaled time based on how long it took for the first bounce (about 2.8x longer) and projected the recoveries based on that.

To get a rough idea why I took this approach look at how quick the cycle happened in the run up to $32 and the grind down, compared to the run up to >$1000 and subsequent grind down. They all follow the same basic pattern.

I'm not doing TA i'm doing crowd/market psychology. You can see the same thing play out in countless alt coin charts. The price is the 'average' of sentiment, a larger crowd has much larger inertia with bigger moves, over longer time. That's my take anyway.

gentlamand - BTC @ $500 breaks all patterns, I can't see that unless something *real bad* happens. If it doeas, then whatever it is will probably be obvious in hindsight.

[sgbett]

I revised my original prediction as the initial rebound impulse wasn't as strong as I thought it would be, so the second is likely to be tempered too.



This permabear thinks we've exhausted the impulse down...Next stop 9500. What? say it ain't so why u no bearish? Well, because I think speculators are idiots

Anyone else calling that? No? I didn't think so. Enjoy your swing trade. Don't forget to exit though, because the slide to 2483 will be even slower and all the more excruciating. (ahh, thats the "permabear" sgbett!!! lol)

Probably stick my head in about may time. See how things are going. GL All! (SV is Bitcoin!)

Remember - it goes back up to ~$9500 first

...drum roll...

[sgbett]

Not quite $9.5k but close enough...

Just a pullback right? BTFD right? Go on, I dare you. BTC is the real Bitcoin what are you afraid of? ;p



In b4 “You know nothin’ sgbett”

[exstasie]

Not quite $9.5k but close enough...

Just a pullback right? BTFD right? Go on, I dare you.

Time will tell. I remember feeling similar confidence as a bear in November 2015. I lost a lot of coins convincing myself it was just a bull trap. You may be right, but I prefer to sit on the fence this time around until resumption of the 2018 bear market is more obvious.

[Wind_FURY]

Dare us? I dare you not to hold Bitcoin. But of course, it's easy to lie and say "I don't HODL Bitcoin". Roger Ver holds Bitcoin. He can't take the risk of making the mistake of HODLING everything in Bitcoin Cash, but I dare say that he can risk HODLING everything in Bitcoin.

Buy the dip!

[gentlemand]

Not that I care about any of this prediction, it's probable junk like all others, but A seven thousand dollar shortfall is close enough? By that level of thinking Craigycoin is Bitcoiny enough too which explains plenty.

[sgbett]

Not that I care about any of this prediction, it's probable junk like all others, but A seven thousand dollar shortfall is close enough? By that level of thinking Craigycoin is Bitcoiny enough too which explains plenty.

Seems like there is so much emotion clouding your vision, that you can't even see what is being spelled out! Now, where have I seen that phenomenon before.

There are two schools of thought:

One is look at the broad strokes, and see the general pattern in order that you can understand the big picture.
The other is nit pick every tiny detail that does not support your preconceptions, and in doing so fail to see the truth in front of your nose.

There is 19 pages of comments here, during which I lay out exactly what is going to happen, with revisions as new information arises. A few OG's recognising the same patterns of behaviour on the forum, which inevitably correlates to the wider psychology of the crowd, which inevitably plays out in the market moves you keep seeing (there is a reason it looks like a fractal).

Plenty of people jeering at the 16500 top call, which looked good....

You hit it, sgbett.

The bears are out of the cave.

Everybody, get your rifles.

I could still be proven wrong, but if not I was out by 1% the top on bitstamp was $16666.66

Just to remind you exactly of the timescale involved - please do feel free to trawl my post history to see whether I had made any other calls that the top was in... (I hadn't, because it wasn't)



Then there was the $1000 bet that it wouldn't go below $10k. Still waiting to be paid for that one, I also predicted that he wouldn't pay. It's like I have a crystal ball

Plenty of people jeering because I dared to suggest that the correction would run as deep as $4k.

Then there was this....

oh btw, im *that* good.

In Nov 2018 I re-evaluated the major market trend that I'd forecast back in feb of that year. I said there would be an upswing to ~9500 which would be sometime around Q1-2 2019 and that this would precede the actual bear market.

Still so much anger and denial, people so focused on hatred for BCH and later BSV that they can't see straight. People still trapped by their emotions.

Dare us? I dare you not to hold Bitcoin. But of course, it's easy to lie and say "I don't HODL Bitcoin". Roger Ver holds Bitcoin. He can't take the risk of making the mistake of HODLING everything in Bitcoin Cash, but I dare say that he can risk HODLING everything in Bitcoin.
Buy the dip!

No BCH, No BTC, no altcoins. Just BSV.

Maybe I am irrational? Maybe I've been paying attention? Maybe this is just another thing I have predicted wrong

[fabiorem]

BSV have built-in code that allows governments to freeze and confiscate coins from anyone. I read this while researching about their project.

In this way, tyrannical governments can simply confiscate coins from its citizens to pay debts to international banks. Debts which they contract without asking their taxpayers about it. They can simply turn crypto illegal and confiscate the assets from the "criminals" which are holding it.

You dont live in the third world, you dont know what socialism looks like. Do you really think a coin that can be confiscated will serve as a good store of value? I do not. And I doubt such coin will free people from modern slavery. Most likely it will go in the opposite direction, as CW dont cease to show up, with his discourse about doing evil just for the sake of it.

[sgbett]

BSV have built-in code that allows governments to freeze and confiscate coins from anyone. I read this while researching about their project.

Where did you read it, Greg maxwell blog post? Roger Ver’s twitter feed? Check your sources.

In fact, why not check the actual source... https://github.com/bitcoin-sv/bitcoin-sv

(I could save you the time and tell you there is no such code, but that would mean nothing I guess)

I understand how uncomfortable it is to accept BTC is not *the* Bitcoin anymore, don’t forget I was here way before many of you and had spent years believing the same thing you all hold on to. I know how hard it was to let go. I can assure you that once you find bitcoin again and the uncomfortable feeling will go away.

Your irrational dislike of CSW will undo you. Maybe not everything is about him. Crazy thought, I know.

[Wind_FURY]

Hi sgbett, I'm asking this out of real curiosity, not to start any social drama mud-slinging debate, but does the whole Bitcoin Cash SV community truly believe that Craig Wright is Satoshi? Or are there some people who have their reservations about it?

[sgbett]

Hi sgbett, I'm asking this out of real curiosity, not to start any social drama mud-slinging debate, but does the whole Bitcoin Cash SV community truly believe that Craig Wright is Satoshi? Or are there some people who have their reservations about it?

I couldn't tell you there's no BSV community as such - people hold different beliefs. I think most people in BSV are receptive to the idea that he is, but then most would probably also tell you that it's not a big deal to them anyway. In particular the people building out services on top of BSV. They seem more concerned with stability of the protocol.

For those with reservations, that more often centres around what craig says and does, and how that reflects on BSV. Some were uncomfortable with his approach. I often wondered why he did things the way he does, but as time has gone on I think I've come to understand that better too. One of the most useful things I found throughout the history of bitcoin is being deeply embedded in "community". Information is useful. (in particular information asymmetry can be very useful!)

I think proof (or not) of Craig being satoshi, is likely to have much more of an effect on people who have less of an understanding of Bitcoin, blockchain, math, crypto in general, the history, the people etc that kind of information is much harder to gather and takes years of learning.

I'm not saying that "if you grok bitcoin then you think CSW is SN, and if you don't think CSW is SN you don't understand bitcoin". Far from it, i'm saying that people with lesser of an involvement with the space, and thus less information, will probably put more stock in whether or not he is/isn't as a proxy for figuring stuff out themselves. Thats not an inherently good/bad thing, just an observation on how I think human psychology works. Technically its the "appeal to authority" fallacy - if used to try and justify why BSV is Bitcoin - but I wouldn't go there!

I do grok the inner workings, ask me about script, opcodes, client optimisation for scaling, economic incentives, probability functions, attack vectors etc etc those are the things that I'm interested in and the thing that the SV team seam to be doing in a way that makes sense to me. The way core handled those things over the years would often make me feel uncomfortable. But I had much less of an understanding of the internals, so whilst it felt like they were going about things wrong I couldn't put my finger specifically on it. With the benefit hindsight, and the knowledge I have now, it's much clearer.

I'm sorry if that reads like the drama/debate you were trying to avoid. It's not intended to be, it's intended to be a comprehensive and honest answer to the question.

tl;dr everyone in BSV knows he is satoshi.

Once you know something, you don't really worry about what other people believe.