Calling top at $16500 (New speculation: Guess the price 19 Feb 2021!)

[Torque]

it's not 2014 anymore. the altcoin markets are much more liquid than that. if you sold 1000 ETH on coinbase right now, you'd crash the price a whopping $2 down to $220.

Every heard of spoofing and fake bid walls? 

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[MarquiseMuseum]

My only regret is that I didn't shovel $50k into ETH in 2015 and cashed in $50 million two years later.

You would never have been able to do this. ETH has no liquidity, the market float is laughably thin. Just trying to liquidate 1000 ETH on a single exchange would crash it down to cents.

it's not 2014 anymore. the altcoin markets are much more liquid than that. if you sold 1000 ETH on coinbase right now, you'd crash the price a whopping $2 down to $220.

in hindsight, the easiest way to get ETH liquidity back then was to participate in the ICO. but if you wanted to put $50k into ETH in 2015, you had 5 months and ample volume to accumulate a position from august-december. easy as cake, if you just had the foresight to be bullish at the time.

Had the money and clarity of mind to see that it was an opportunity, but got blocked by French government during this exact time period august-december 2015. When I was released back to Sweden I immediately started buying at $100 weekly limit on coinbase, but it was too late it had already gone to $10 and I was out of position and have not recovered since, playing catch up. Re entry during period 2018-2020 succeeded in -99% and now -50% but the amounts are only a few thousand dollars at most $10 000. Feeling that government squeeze right now with insurance problems, it doesn't matter, the deal was already sealed back in early 2016, no road back to freedom most likely, don't care. Blew $30k in Prague in 2017 best investment I ever made, going back in october.

[sgbett]

All I read here is "blah blah blah BTC price will crash blah blah blah blah BSV will be king blah blah blah blah blah BTC price will crash blah blah BSV will be king blah blah blah blah BTC price will crash blah blah blah"

Like being wrong much, sgbett?

Lol. I wonder when you will figure out what is going on

So which way is it going to go... lower highs... looks like a big ol' triangle is forming... ugh might have to wait until October for our answer...



But what's this, lets look back to the 260 run-up aka the "precursor to gox"... (I know it will blow your mind torque that I can consider alternative and opposing scenarios)



If the triangle breaks out to the upside, then it could truly explode.

Which will it be - if its the second one then this inital run up was *way* bigger than I predicted here where I said the initial run up would be up to $10k.

Projecting out based on an initial "correction" at 20k, then the real run-up goes as high as $1m.

[in b4 "sgbett has dumped his BSV bags and bought BTC" - relax, I haven't ]

To be clear the latter scenario is not the outcome I expect due to BTC having deviated from its original design. Had it not, I would very much be considering it the more likely scenario right now and selling my worldly possessions to capitalise!

[Febo]

CSW keep doing threats not only against bitcoin, but against the entire cryptospace. So the general dislike for him is not that irrational as you believe.

I understand exactly why people dislike him, and I understand why they think that is a rational position.
He is attacking every coin that isn't Bitcoin, because they are not Bitcoin. That's a massive threat to their "money".

Yes he also know Monero ZCash and Litecoin will cease to work until end of this year.  There is not much time left unless he was somehow wrong this time. How could he be?  

Do you have any internal information when will this happen? He said until end of 2019 that is almost ending. So his prediction/threath is dangerously close to fail. Is that even possible? Was he ever wrong so far?

[sgbett]

Wow this is not expected at all... should've kept ranging for another month before the triangle resolved!

Suspect this move is not based on trading, but something else happening.

CSW and Ira about to reach a settlement... perhaps there is some liquidation afoot.

Also interesting that BCH and BSV went down with it!

Here is another wild idea - this sell off looks similar size to an upward move on 2nd April.

If you offset them it puts price much closer to what I was expecting...



One thing for sure this "bull market" that we are supposedly in looks weaker every day.

[Blockchain0106]

Any Update we are below 200 day SMA How its go and play for time.

[sgbett]

Nothing has changed, zooming out you can see it continues to play as predicted...



2020 is going to be hell for the average BTCer that doesn't know what a real "crypto winter" feels like. The confusion and anger, the sense of betrayal.

This is operant conditioning with variable ratio reinforcement. It's incredibly effective at getting people to keep chasing a reward (number go up) despite repeated loss. It's very similar to the reason people become addicted to e.g. gambling. People do not like to think about unpleasant experiences, they prefer to remember pleasant ones. This makes their judgement irrational.

That is why people cannot see what is going on, they are focused on the recent successes and block out the negative emotions felt as the price goes down.

These human behaviours are what drive macro moves, and the larger the market the slower it plays out. I've said it before many a time, and I'm not the only one.

Why am I telling people? Because being right OTI is what it's all about right

[exstasie]

Nothing has changed, zooming out you can see it continues to play as predicted...



2020 is going to be hell for the average BTCer that doesn't know what a real "crypto winter" feels like. The confusion and anger, the sense of betrayal.

Predicting bear winter through the 2020 halving, a gutsy move! I usually like taking contrarian positions but it's too early for me to take that bet.

My thinking is the market is near a major decision point. Either we've entered a new bull market and are now finding support in a higher trading range, or this is the slow bleed at the start of another bear market.

The next couple months should be telling. In my opinion, the closest parallel to where we are now is June or July 2013. By the end of the year or early Q1 next year, I think it'll be obvious we're entering the next phase of the bull market, but that's just my gut feeling. We can let the charts do the talking.

[figmentofmyass]

2020 is going to be hell for the average BTCer that doesn't know what a real "crypto winter" feels like. The confusion and anger, the sense of betrayal.

This is operant conditioning with variable ratio reinforcement. It's incredibly effective at getting people to keep chasing a reward (number go up) despite repeated loss. It's very similar to the reason people become addicted to e.g. gambling. People do not like to think about unpleasant experiences, they prefer to remember pleasant ones. This makes their judgement irrational.

That is why people cannot see what is going on, they are focused on the recent successes and block out the negative emotions felt as the price goes down.

i'm sensing overconfidence.

the problem of course, is that your theory can't be proven or disproved until we break the december 2018 lows or the june 2019 highs. dow theory says this could easily be a pullback in a primary bull market. volume confirmation supports that idea---volume increased throughout the q1-q2 rally and has been decreasing throughout the subsequent correction.

Volume should increase if the price is moving in the direction of the primary trend and decrease if it is moving against it.

[STT]

Time is a corrective force as well as price, to predict we will continue downwards through 2020 is as unlikely an idea as those who thought in July we'd just keep rising repeatedly.  Though either is possible as a scenario we get resistance when trying to break through previous volume or resistance.  If we are descending for the rest of this year and we achieve lower prices it wont be any more negative then the cycle 12 months ago and we turned around then as we might now.    Its worth keeping a watch for positive action while we have a rising 200 day average, longer term we have positive action possible though its not present currently.

[Lauda]

i'm sensing overconfidence.

sgbett is in bed with BSV scammers, and listening to him will for sure lead to financial loss as he has malicious intent. This is course assumes that he won't get 'random-lucky', for which the possibility always exists.

[Febo]

2020 is going to be hell for the average BTCer that doesn't know what a real "crypto winter" feels like. The confusion and anger, the sense of betrayal.

Predicting bear winter through the 2020 halving, a gutsy move! I usually like taking contrarian positions but it's too early for me to take that bet.

My thinking is the market is near a major decision point. Either we've entered a new bull market and are now finding support in a higher trading range, or this is the slow bleed at the start of another bear market.

Crypto winter will soon finish, but that dont mean any serious bull run will start. We survived this winter at unreasonable high Bitcoin prices.  Bitcoin price at last halving was 1/2 of previous ATH. In halving before 1/3 of previous ATH. So transplanting those prices to upcoming halving that will happen in 7 months price should be from $7-10k. That is what is now. And lower then previous months. So please dont be to optimistic. Same as to pessimistic, but winter is over!

[MarquiseMuseum]

Nothing has changed, zooming out you can see it continues to play as predicted...



2020 is going to be hell for the average BTCer that doesn't know what a real "crypto winter" feels like. The confusion and anger, the sense of betrayal.

This is operant conditioning with variable ratio reinforcement. It's incredibly effective at getting people to keep chasing a reward (number go up) despite repeated loss. It's very similar to the reason people become addicted to e.g. gambling. People do not like to think about unpleasant experiences, they prefer to remember pleasant ones. This makes their judgement irrational.

That is why people cannot see what is going on, they are focused on the recent successes and block out the negative emotions felt as the price goes down.

These human behaviours are what drive macro moves, and the larger the market the slower it plays out. I've said it before many a time, and I'm not the only one.

Why am I telling people? Because being right OTI is what it's all about right

This is my conclusion now that x100 leverage was mysteriously introduced to the masses.

Retail gonna get rekt in BTC.

News that transpired after 2017 peak is irrecoverable.

Alts may flourish, with the right picks we have x10 000 in there.

Lots of migrated value from BTC dominance and merchant onramping.

Fair value of BTC is a few hundred million dollars, but personally for me: zero because it's the same control powers as before, in a new package. Dangerous for the future if BTC continues to grow. Very dystopian.

It had a good 1 billion % decade, trailblazed the future of things to come, new prospects and new horizons, new tech, real decentralization, real meritocracy, real democracy the list goes on and on.

The most responsible thing for top exchanges and indexes to do at this point is slowly delist BTC and admit that it did not and will not ever achieve the delusion of hegemonic currency. Mainstream rejected BTC in 2017 and that was the end of it. BTC is not the only deluded crypto, entire top 5 needs to drop -90%.

Alts can flourish when they are not under the tyranny of centralized BTC.

Even USD gateways is preferable.

Best of all is a service based crypto that can not be interfered by either btc or fake fiat.

[exstasie]

This is my conclusion now that x100 leverage was mysteriously introduced to the masses.

Retail gonna get rekt in BTC.

What do you mean? Bitmex has been offering 100x leverage since 2014.

Fair value of BTC is a few hundred million dollars, but personally for me: zero because it's the same control powers as before, in a new package. Dangerous for the future if BTC continues to grow. Very dystopian.

I always tell people, BTC isn't revolutionary. At most, it's a transfer of wealth from one group to another, to the benefit of early adopters.

Why so dystopian though?

Mainstream rejected BTC in 2017 and that was the end of it.

How did you come to that conclusion?

[Lauda]

How did you come to that conclusion?

Are you seriously thinking his position isn't intentionally malicious or are you just responding because of your sig. campaign? Let's not waste brain-power on paid/unpaid monkeys.

[exstasie]

How did you come to that conclusion?

Are you seriously thinking his position isn't intentionally malicious

He's just some kind of altcoin shill. I don't mind that.....in this world everyone is talking their book anyway, including us BTC holders. I honestly miss having more perma bears and trolls around here. They make things interesting and challenge our biases.

[fabiorem]

How did you come to that conclusion?

Are you seriously thinking his position isn't intentionally malicious

He's just some kind of altcoin shill. I don't mind that.....in this world everyone is talking their book anyway, including us BTC holders. I honestly miss having more perma bears and trolls around here. They make things interesting and challenge our biases.

Its not that hard to find one. However, they are disguising themselves as bulls at this moment.

In this post, I catalog the different bear species in this forum.

One thing they have in common: the price will always go down. They make that very elaborate chart analysis, to convince you and others that its a natural "correction", and when the price bottoms, then they make another, as elaborate as the first one, to convince you and others that this is not the bottom, and that it will go even lower.

They keep pushing this narrative, so that at some point, entrapped by their words, you will sell all your stash to them. However, this wont turn them into bulls, and they will sell these coins with 1% profit, half of which will be spent on fees, so that bitcoin never rise to greatness and remains as a tool for speculators.

They also like to drawn waves, and the last wave is always pointing down. If the price goes up, they try to show impartiality, and increase the value in their analysis, like 5% if the price have risen 10%. However, if the price falls 10%, they make a new analysis, now with the last wave showing a 50% fall, not 5%, because they are bears.

The troll bears are more funny, and easy to identify. Sophiscated bears, however, disguise themselves as impartial operators. Know how to spot one.

A victory of the bears means a victory of fiat currency over bitcoin. I dont expect bitcoin to be adopted by the masses, but I dont like the idea of bitcoin becoming a copycat of the stock market.

[Lauda]

They make things interesting and challenge our biases.

So wasting time against paid-propaganda and trolls of all kinds is what you want to do for a living? They are toxic to the environment and only serve to expose our resources. Defending against FUD is x-fold more expensive than spreading it. They don't challenge anything. People like you will hopefully realize this and start ignoring them; use your time wisely, you don't have a lot left.

In this post, I catalog the different bear species in this forum.

Good thread.

A victory of the bears means a victory of fiat currency over bitcoin. I dont expect bitcoin to be adopted by the masses, but I dont like the idea of bitcoin becoming a copycat of the stock market.

Bitcoin has already beaten fiat in every conceivable way. I have to correct your statement to: Bitcoin can't be adopted by the masses at this time. It's not a matter of will/won't, it's a matter of can/can't for now. The technology is not there yet.

[MarquiseMuseum]

They make things interesting and challenge our biases.

So wasting time against paid-propaganda and trolls of all kinds is what you want to do for a living? They are toxic to the environment and only serve to expose our resources. Defending against FUD is x-fold more expensive than spreading it. They don't challenge anything. People like you will hopefully realize this and start ignoring them; use your time wisely, you don't have a lot left.

In this post, I catalog the different bear species in this forum.

Good thread.

A victory of the bears means a victory of fiat currency over bitcoin. I dont expect bitcoin to be adopted by the masses, but I dont like the idea of bitcoin becoming a copycat of the stock market.

Bitcoin has already beaten fiat in every conceivable way. I have to correct your statement to: Bitcoin can't be adopted by the masses at this time. It's not a matter of will/won't, it's a matter of can/can't for now. The technology is not there yet.

This is fundamentals so you can remove that negative trust because everything I stated is substantiated by sources.

Do you want me to post links to these sources to corroborate?

You and you ilk are deceiving noobs because you have tons of BTC since years, how on earth can someone like you remain objective?

I have tracked this space for many years and have made an informed conclusion that I am sharing with the community. Obviously Bitcointalk is the wrong place to critizice bitcoin.

I certainly hope you will never reach a position of influence by this downvoting of truth, it is corrupted behaviour.

Extasie: Lauda is one of the reasons of a dystopian future, imagine having a guy with this mental state ruling the world with his stash of monolithic BTC in company with all the other parasites in banking and government. Despicable and antithetical to a decentralized spirit of solidarity of humans.

BTC dominance is gravely damaging to the world economy if it ever attains influence. It is a source of concentrated wealth and power unimaginable to civil society. Best to decentralize between many individual cryptos, not only 1 dominator coin. Not to mention how bizarre it is to push upon us, old tech. WTF do I want with tech equivalent to 56k modem in 2020? It's just bizarre. If Amiga was worth 1 billion Luada would try to push it as the greatest thing ever and everyone absolutely must have amiga because it got 8 bits.

Kingmakers and slaves are roles of the past, a distant history filled with horror, now it is time to lift everyone into prosperity by equal opportunity of sharing in this new economy. BTC had its run, let the rest of us move towards liberation now.

If you bothered to read my history you would see that I was/am a huge btc bull, it doesn't alter the fact that it is a dangerous trajectory due to facts that have recently been discovered.

I have access to this leverage system and it was on purely philosophical foundations that I choose not to sellout to a new parabolic run like Lauda and many legendaries in here. I choose other coins, it is my right. And it is a right I wish to preserve for everyone, this diversity of a global economy. It is much better for social mobility than a dominator coin that is usurped by the military industrial and royal elite. Sorry to the early gainers here that those vampires ruined our fun, but its not only BTC, my main platform has problems with Russia.

I did not know that Bitmex offerd x100 leverage since 2014, well then the foundation of $300k is spoiled because it was not newly accessible to retail. For me, it was only recently that I heard of this type of leverage because it is widely advertised.

So, it is even stronger indication of sub $2000 for BTC.

[Lauda]

If Amiga was worth 1 billion Luada would try to push it as the greatest thing ever and everyone absolutely must have amiga because it got 8 bits.

Do your consistent push with your red-flags, I now strongly believe that anyone is at high risk of losing money when dealing/interacting with you or just by reading your post. Therefore, I have handled accordingly. Welcome to the ignore list as well. I will also submit your shitcoin Museum as a fraudulent website and backlink it to the proper references. Enjoy your stay.
Time to get back to the thread and for others to ignore these malicious trolls. If they only had anything worth living for in their life, then they might not be such pests. The price is doing fine.