ActiveMining Overview and Speculation Thread

[lewicki]

I've said this before but theres no way the wall gets destroyed in any reasonable time frame (Less than 1-2 weeks), and optimistic projections are looking at a rate of 2-3 months. There isn't any reason to actually buy shares at .0025 right now, even if you value activeminer above that (which I do). Buying shares at .0025 means your money is going to be parked doing nothing for a long time, while you could use that time to trade or even have the money sit at just-dice.

40k shares picked up on BTC-TC

[lolstate]

I've said this before but theres no way the wall gets destroyed in any reasonable time frame (Less than 1-2 weeks), and optimistic projections are looking at a rate of 2-3 months. There isn't any reason to actually buy shares at .0025 right now, even if you value activeminer above that (which I do). Buying shares at .0025 means your money is going to be parked doing nothing for a long time, while you could use that time to trade or even have the money sit at just-dice.

Not everyone will see it this way. Many people realise committing now at 0.0025 means ActM will be closer to  realising their plans - only *then* will the price rise above 0.0025. Personally, I wouldn't risk putting my money elsewhere and assuming I can time a re-entry at 0.0025 just before the wall is consumed. I'd be afraid to wake up one morning to a price of 0.004 and be forced to buy back in with a smaller stake than before.

[lolstate]

I've said this before but theres no way the wall gets destroyed in any reasonable time frame (Less than 1-2 weeks), and optimistic projections are looking at a rate of 2-3 months. There isn't any reason to actually buy shares at .0025 right now, even if you value activeminer above that (which I do). Buying shares at .0025 means your money is going to be parked doing nothing for a long time, while you could use that time to trade or even have the money sit at just-dice.

Doing nothing? Will you give me your dividends then?

I can buy at .0025 1 hour before dividends, then sell at .002499999 after dividends every week.

You can, until you can't. The can't buck the market, it will catch you out! 

[Exocyst]

I've said this before but theres no way the wall gets destroyed in any reasonable time frame (Less than 1-2 weeks), and optimistic projections are looking at a rate of 2-3 months. There isn't any reason to actually buy shares at .0025 right now, even if you value activeminer above that (which I do). Buying shares at .0025 means your money is going to be parked doing nothing for a long time, while you could use that time to trade or even have the money sit at just-dice.

Walls can disappear quickly once they start coming down, but 1—2 weeks would be a fantastic time frame. I think the dip in bitcoin prices over the past week hurt securities as people looked pull their investments out so that they could short bitcoin during the drop. With the price back hovering around 100USD/BTC, I think a lot of money is coming back into the securities market in general.

I think if a community member like TradeFortress who is heavily invested in ASICMINER through his BTCINVEST fund hedged some of the fund's ASICMINER holdings into ActiveMining, it would be a major vote of coup for ActiveMining, but such a long-sighted move is hardly justified until the wall shrinks to <10–25%.

I've said this before but theres no way the wall gets destroyed in any reasonable time frame (Less than 1-2 weeks), and optimistic projections are looking at a rate of 2-3 months. There isn't any reason to actually buy shares at .0025 right now, even if you value activeminer above that (which I do). Buying shares at .0025 means your money is going to be parked doing nothing for a long time, while you could use that time to trade or even have the money sit at just-dice.

Not everyone will see it this way. Many people realise committing now at 0.0025 means ActM will be closer to  realising their plans - only *then* will the price rise above 0.0025. Personally, I wouldn't risk putting my money elsewhere and assuming I can time a re-entry at 0.0025 just before the wall is consumed. I'd be afraid to wake up one morning to a price I 0.004 and be forced to buy back in with a smaller stake than before.

Yeah I got burned on CIPHERMINE last night thinking I could make a few LTC by trading against BTC during the LTC/BTC price ratio drop. Vircurex went down with my LTC in tow and CIPHERMINE's wall got bought out by a single investor. So be wary of thinking walls will be long-lasting

[ryantw]

My prediction: 3 months from now, ASICMiner depressed or flat, ActM at least 0.025.

You highly underestimate Asicminer to think that in 3 months it will lose value. Hopefully no one follows your prediction because they will lose money on activeminer and lose out on asicminer.

[lolstate]

My prediction: 3 months from now, ASICMiner depressed or flat, ActM at least 0.025.

You highly underestimate Asicminer to think that in 3 months it will lose value. Hopefully no one follows your prediction because they will lose money on activeminer and lose out on asicminer.

Someone who believed in my prediction and had faith in the future of Bitcoin would go long ASICMiner and long ActiveMiner, *possibly* short AM, long ActM. Personally, I'm long for both, either way you will make money. 

[lewicki]

My prediction: 3 months from now, ASICMiner depressed or flat, ActM at least 0.025.

You highly underestimate Asicminer to think that in 3 months it will lose value. Hopefully no one follows your prediction because they will lose money on activeminer and lose out on asicminer.

How so?

[deltanine]

My prediction: 3 months from now, ASICMiner depressed or flat, ActM at least 0.025.

You highly underestimate Asicminer to think that in 3 months it will lose value. Hopefully no one follows your prediction because they will lose money on activeminer and lose out on asicminer.

Someone who believed in my prediction and had faith in the future of Bitcoin would go long ASICMiner and long ActiveMiner, *possibly* short AM, long ActM. Personally, I'm long for both, either way you will make money. 

Sure is a lot of AsicMiner speculation on the ActiveMiner Speculation Thread.  Not hard to figure out who the current industry leader is.

[FloatesMcgoates]

I've said this before but theres no way the wall gets destroyed in any reasonable time frame (Less than 1-2 weeks), and optimistic projections are looking at a rate of 2-3 months. There isn't any reason to actually buy shares at .0025 right now, even if you value activeminer above that (which I do). Buying shares at .0025 means your money is going to be parked doing nothing for a long time, while you could use that time to trade or even have the money sit at just-dice.

Doing nothing? Will you give me your dividends then?

I can buy at .0025 1 hour before dividends, then sell at .002499999 after dividends every week.

You can, until you can't. The can't buck the market, it will catch you out! 

Total trading fees for my transaction would be less than 0.00001. Last week's dividend was .000018. If you and I both think AM is valued more than .0025, then I will have no problem selling at .00249999. In the time between weekly dividends I can use that money for trading and just-dice (which is currently paying out well over 1% a week), and then come back next week and do the same thing because I know that the price isnt going anywhere.

[lolstate]

My prediction: 3 months from now, ASICMiner depressed or flat, ActM at least 0.025.

You highly underestimate Asicminer to think that in 3 months it will lose value. Hopefully no one follows your prediction because they will lose money on activeminer and lose out on asicminer.

Someone who believed in my prediction and had faith in the future of Bitcoin would go long ASICMiner and long ActiveMiner, *possibly* short AM, long ActM. Personally, I'm long for both, either way you will make money. 

Sure is a lot of AsicMiner speculation on the ActiveMiner Speculation Thread.  Not hard to figure out who the current industry leader is.

Your head and a whoosh. 

[iCEBREAKER]

Yeah I got burned on CIPHERMINE last night thinking I could make a few LTC by trading against BTC during the LTC/BTC price ratio drop. Vircurex went down with my LTC in tow and CIPHERMINE's wall got bought out by a single investor. So be wary of thinking walls will be long-lasting

Doesn't it suck that valuable lessons are always expensive? 

Figure out if you want to invest (buy and hold), trade (speculate), or some combination of both (via two separate accounts).  Then commit to and be disciplined in maintaining that approach.

Flopping around on a whim or the latest rumor will only take your money and give it to stronger hands.  Remember that bulls and bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered.

/Oink!  Squeal! 

[Exocyst]

Sure is a lot of AsicMiner speculation on the ActiveMiner Speculation Thread.  Not hard to figure out who the current industry leader is.

I don't think there is any doubts about the industry leader, but people holding ActM probably believe that there is room for competition. If ActM can build towards 8% mining stake by the 3rd quarter of 2014, then that would equate to ActM mining-only dividends of over 0.001/week and a share price of 0.20BTC/share (Assuming share prices equilibrate to 26% APR which is more or less a good model when looking at ASICMINER and other mining securities). Now, for ActM to actually achieve an 8% mining stake, then VMC would have to be very successful at manufacturing miners, which means hardware sales will bump up those figures substantially.

Yeah I got burned on CIPHERMINE last night thinking I could make a few LTC by trading against BTC during the LTC/BTC price ratio drop. Vircurex went down with my LTC in tow and CIPHERMINE's wall got bought out by a single investor. So be wary of thinking walls will be long-lasting

Doesn't it suck that valuable lessons are always expensive?  

Figure out if you want to invest (buy and hold), trade (speculate), or some combination of both (via two separate accounts).  Then commit to and be disciplined in maintaining that approach.

Flopping around on a whim or the latest rumor will only take your money and give it to stronger hands.  Remember that bulls and bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered.

/Oink!  Squeal!  

Technically, I didn't lose anything, I failed to gain, but I agree with your point more or less excepting that I am a vegetarian  

[deltanine]

My prediction: 3 months from now, ASICMiner depressed or flat, ActM at least 0.025.

You highly underestimate Asicminer to think that in 3 months it will lose value. Hopefully no one follows your prediction because they will lose money on activeminer and lose out on asicminer.

Someone who believed in my prediction and had faith in the future of Bitcoin would go long ASICMiner and long ActiveMiner, *possibly* short AM, long ActM. Personally, I'm long for both, either way you will make money. 

Sure is a lot of AsicMiner speculation on the ActiveMiner Speculation Thread.  Not hard to figure out who the current industry leader is.

Your head and a whoosh. 

You may be projecting here as I don't think you understood my point.  I wasn't necessarily addressing you.

I am a prospective investor in ActM.  Admittedly, the original contract kerfuffle scared me away but it seems things are going in the right direction now.  But because of the early missteps I am waiting for Ken to prove himself a worthy manager before I risk any of my coins on ActM.

So it's good to see an Active Miner Speculation Thread.  I just thought it ironic that i come here to gauge ActM sentiment but almost half of the speculation here is about ActiveMiner currently.

[bigdude]

subbing interesting thread

[lewicki]

Sure is a lot of AsicMiner speculation on the ActiveMiner Speculation Thread.  Not hard to figure out who the current industry leader is.

I don't think anyone is being delusional about it. AsicMiner is an elephant in the room and needs to be incorporated into any mining discussion.

[Streets 2.0]

Sure is a lot of AsicMiner speculation on the ActiveMiner Speculation Thread.  Not hard to figure out who the current industry leader is.

I don't think anyone is being delusional about it. AsicMiner is an elephant in the room and needs to be incorporated into any mining discussion.

ASICMINER also requires and has expressed a desire in competition.  Competition, in this particular market, actually helps them rather than hurting them.  With a legitimate competitor, they can sell more hardware to the masses and bring more online.  I don't see why anyone who is an ASICMINER supporter or investor (TAT) would back handedly hope for a competitor to fail. 

[lolstate]

My prediction: 3 months from now, ASICMiner depressed or flat, ActM at least 0.025.

You highly underestimate Asicminer to think that in 3 months it will lose value. Hopefully no one follows your prediction because they will lose money on activeminer and lose out on asicminer.

Someone who believed in my prediction and had faith in the future of Bitcoin would go long ASICMiner and long ActiveMiner, *possibly* short AM, long ActM. Personally, I'm long for both, either way you will make money. 

Sure is a lot of AsicMiner speculation on the ActiveMiner Speculation Thread.  Not hard to figure out who the current industry leader is.

Your head and a whoosh. 

You may be projecting here as I don't think you understood my point.  I wasn't necessarily addressing you.

I am a prospective investor in ActM.  Admittedly, the original contract kerfuffle scared me away but it seems things are going in the right direction now.  But because of the early missteps I am waiting for Ken to prove himself a worthy manager before I risk any of my coins on ActM.

So it's good to see an Active Miner Speculation Thread.  I just thought it ironic that i come here to gauge ActM sentiment but almost half of the speculation here is about ActiveMiner currently.

Ok, I thought you were having a dig. The whole point of the quoted part of the thread is that investors expect ActM to be successful, and a reasonable assumption is ActM price will outperform AM. So, a good hedge is long ActM and short or long AM depending on how well you think AM will handle the emerging competition.

[deltanine]

Sure is a lot of AsicMiner speculation on the ActiveMiner Speculation Thread.  Not hard to figure out who the current industry leader is.

I don't think anyone is being delusional about it. AsicMiner is an elephant in the room and needs to be incorporated into any mining discussion.

ASICMINER also requires and has expressed a desire in competition.  Competition, in this particular market, actually helps them rather than hurting them.  With a legitimate competitor, they can sell more hardware to the masses and bring more online.  I don't see why anyone who is an ASICMINER supporter or investor (TAT) would back handedly hope for a competitor to fail. 

I agree with that.  I've been waiting for the opportunity to invest in a direct competitor of AsicMiner.  If ActM is successful, this would be the only option available.

[bigdude]

I see Ken is bidding on Ads here on bitcointalk:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=253076.msg2695198#msg2695198

May be some increased exposure for the new miners AM is building

[deltanine]

Ok, I thought you were having a dig. The whole point of the quoted part of the thread is that investors expect ActM to be successful, and a reasonable assumption is ActM price will outperform AM. So, a good hedge is long ActM and short or long AM depending on how well you think AM will handle the emerging competition.

Sorry.  That was my attempt at trying to be funny.  I should have thrown down a smiley or two.