Do you think BTC will hit $200?

[nobbynobbynoob]

As I wrote in a Facebook post earlier today:

I was thinking just recently (shhh!) about how early we still are in the adoption cycle really. Let's simplify matters slightly and say that, very roughly, the exchange market carries 10 million USD on the bid side and 100.000 BTC on the ask side: hey presto, 10 million USD / 100.000 BTC = 100 USD/BTC.

History suggests that the trend of 'ask' volume is downward, but let's buck that and, for sake of argument, ADD 20% to the ask side, i.e. 120k BTC. What would it take on the bid side thus to raise BTC price to $1000? 110 million USD.

Mass/corporate adoption, one might say? Hardly. Just think of one million people worldwide investing an average of $110 into bitcoin. There's your 110 million USD. And people wonder why it's a mistake in Bitcoinia (most of the time) not to be bullish enough!

[jrolmstd]

11:05:40 GMT December 25, 2013. Merry Christmas!

[marcovaldo]

As I wrote in a Facebook post earlier today:

I was thinking just recently (shhh!) about how early we still are in the adoption cycle really. Let's simplify matters slightly and say that, very roughly, the exchange market carries 10 million USD on the bid side and 100.000 BTC on the ask side: hey presto, 10 million USD / 100.000 BTC = 100 USD/BTC.

History suggests that the trend of 'ask' volume is downward, but let's buck that and, for sake of argument, ADD 20% to the ask side, i.e. 120k BTC. What would it take on the bid side thus to raise BTC price to $1000? 110 million USD.

Mass/corporate adoption, one might say? Hardly. Just think of one million people worldwide investing an average of $110 into bitcoin. There's your 110 million USD. And people wonder why it's a mistake in Bitcoinia (most of the time) not to be bullish enough!

And when will 1 million people invest into btc? You are optimistic. I hope ur right

[umaOuma]

And when will 1 million people invest into btc? You are optimistic. I hope ur right

Wont happen, 1 million people must use Bitcoin as a form of payments

[nobbynobbynoob]

And when will 1 million people invest into btc? You are optimistic. I hope ur right

Given that Bitcoin can be used worldwide, one million isn't a lot. Nota bene: I'm not saying we're going to see mBTC/USD parity any time soon, as in this year or the first half of next year, necessarily. Just that the growth on the bid side needed to achieve that exchange rate does not appear outrageously onerous; rather, it appears eminently achievable.

[Alicia90]

one day 

[indianplayers]

It did before.... Why not again?

[redmetal]

Looks like its heading that way now

[nobbynobbynoob]

Looks like its heading that way now

Slow, organic growth? Are we "back in 2012" but with 100 being the new 10?

[naphto]

It did before.... Why not again?

Because surprise is finished. People discovered it and wanted to invest in it, now they don't care ...
No media attention any longer

[Lauda]

It will, but will probably take a lot of time. Wait for next halving.

[btcton]

Let me change my estimate, I say November.

[tuandung1437]

why btc hit 200$ ? while asic make it esay to mine , esay to mine maybe the price of btc is cheap , i think so

[arlekyn13]

It's really hard to predict if and when the BTC will hit $200. But, if it ever reaches $500, pushing the market cap to more than $5 billions, we can expect a lot more attention from heavy investors, pushing the price a lot faster to $1000+/BTC. The major problem with BTC at this point is the concentration of it in just few maneuvering hands. It's probably one of the main reasons keeping the big guys away, I wouldn't invest half a billion into something knowing that another party has the possibility to throw high enough amounts of BTC on the market to make my investment go down by 10-80%. And with the reticence banks are showing now towards BTC (especially US ones, but they are the ones giving the world's direction anyways), it's a pretty rough way ahead for the BTC.

[tyler539]

I think that price will rise after the difficulty increases substantially soon. As bitcoins get harder to mine, it will be harder to gain them, hence the price is pushed up (Supply and Demand.) Specifically, I think it will jump right after the difficulty causes each block to be worth 25 bitcoins vs 50. Then we will see some bigger numbers.

[Lauda]

Give it time.

[gerXhonza]

I think that price will rise after the difficulty increases substantially soon. As bitcoins get harder to mine, it will be harder to gain them, hence the price is pushed up (Supply and Demand.) Specifically, I think it will jump right after the difficulty causes each block to be worth 25 bitcoins vs 50. Then we will see some bigger numbers.

I have to agree, to ASICs was invested so much money the owners will not want to sell cheap which supports the possibility of 200

[b!z]

next month!

[marcovaldo]

I think that price will rise after the difficulty increases substantially soon. As bitcoins get harder to mine, it will be harder to gain them, hence the price is pushed up (Supply and Demand.) Specifically, I think it will jump right after the difficulty causes each block to be worth 25 bitcoins vs 50. Then we will see some bigger numbers.

Bitcoins are created every 10 minutes (average), and the block reward is constant (at least for 2013 and 2014).
So, the supply is the same, it does not matter if there are more miners, so if the bitcoins are splitted into more people or not.
At the end, the same amount of bitcoins is created every day

[Paladino]

It will first hit 130-140 before winter then reach 200 in 2014