Hi all. I thought you might be interested in a Google docs sheet I put together. It has some
very conservative projections which may help you decide whether to invest.
I've tried to do some due diligence before making my decision, I've read the whitepaper a few times, read all of the FAQs on the website, watched 4 livestreams on Facebook, researched the principals on the team, and participated in the Telegram group. By the way, side note: all of the support personnel I've dealt with on Telegram have been very helpful. It's not my favorite medium for information, but they've all been pretty good. I've also corresponded briefly with one of the principals regarding getting accredited in the US.
I suggest everyone else does their own investigation and possible projections of outcomes. Read the whitepaper and realize that the initial projections were when BTC was at $14,000USD and difficulty was lower than it is now. Realize that all numbers on the website and whitepaper are good faith estimates and that things change over time.
I am making my decision not on whether I'll get 471% return, or 13% in a month, I believe these are less likely to happen, and we know certainly not guaranteed. If they do happen, that's just a happy bonus. My decision is based on whether it will diversify my investments into a productive venture, is the project likely to succeed in the stated plan. Secondarily, i look to see whether it's better or worse than some other investments I could make, while realizing this is difficult to project.
The spreadsheet I'm linking looks at the cost of BTC today and potential prices in 3 years. It also makes various assumptions, because assumptions are all I can go on. I know how many MIO have been bought, but I don't know the amount of fiat this equates to (or will equate to when they need to purchase hardware), I'm guessing on a number I think the ICO might raise by the end (May 14). You're welcome to change any of the assumptions I made in the spreadsheet in your own downloaded copy.
Assumptions:
- $6M USD raised in ICO
- 35% of whatever money is available for build-out goes to infrastructure (source: Whitepaper, livestream question)
- Electricity cost is not part of the 4 - 5% maintenance cost (source: common sense, this bitcointalk thread)
- The 23% reinvestment is able to only keep pace with difficulty. Note: This is a conservative estimate compared to the whitepaper, which sees an increasing BTC production over time. I'm hopeful that this happens, but I didn't want to require it to base my decision on. I think the 23% reinvestment rate is a great idea and should be the key to long term success, but again, very conservative approach assuming Miner One can't gain against difficulty.
- Not accounting for any change in ETH because it makes projections too difficult. Even though payments are in ETH, I'm imagining the payout in BTC.
- Not accounting for: Changes in electricity cost or block reward halving (est. 31May2020)
As you can see, if BTC stays at $6750, it's better for me to buy BTC at this point than invest in MinerOne given my conservative assumptions. However, if you think BTC will be at $6750 in three years, I guess you wouldn't invest in it anyway. If BTC rises modestly to $11,000 - where we were 24 days ago - I will have more BTC at the end of three years than I could purchase today. If BTC rises to $50,000 in three years, I'd have 30% more BTC then than I could buy now.
Because of these very conservative estimates (pessimistic in fact),
I have made the decision to invest myself. My expectation is that the team will be able to beat my numbers, at least modestly and perhaps substantially.
Context: I've bought and currently run mining at home (not BTC), more equipment will be going to co-location in a few months, I've purchased a BTC mining contract at Genesis Mining which is still active. I like the idea of diversifying into a more transparent project where the founders and the supporters interests are aligned. I believe the team is able to execute creating and running a data center, which is largely what a mining farm is. I think the distribution of tokens is fairly equitable (82% to the public purchasers). As stated above, I also think the 23% reinvestment fund is key to success, and keeping a company reserve makes sense also, though hopefully we never have to use it.
I do wish they had immediately converted their ETH to fiat, as other projects I've been involved with did. If you have near-term expenses in fiat denominated prices, it doesn't make sense to hold crypto for a long time. They said they didn't want to time the market, so they didn't sell, but now they're considering delaying purchase of the equipment. How is that not also timing the market? The best thing would have been to get out of the market once you got the payment. Of course I agree that getting out now would also be a terrible idea - yes I realize I'm advocating market timing haha.
Spreadsheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VD-G1n5PZj1_d3SQfsyvqyw4BbDTHLn2_gmGzVgYQJY/edit?usp=sharingIf anyone sees any glaring mistakes in my calculations, please let me know. We can debate the assumptions, but everyone is likely to have their own assumptions. If you have a strong argument for why any of my assumptions are poorly made, feel free to discuss.
Lastly, if you've found my efforts helpful to you, and you decide to invest for yourself, feel free to use my referral link to get an extra 4%.
https://wallet.minerone.io/Referal/0af29b2f-567d-453f-9925-859affea46dcThank you for your in-depth analysis and for your confidence in us, Rocknet! Welcome aboard.
