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Author Topic: [BitFunder] IceDrill.ASIC IPO (235 Thash Mining Operation powered by HashFast)  (Read 377603 times)
Deprived
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August 06, 2013, 10:54:04 PM
 #21

The spreadsheet doesn't seem to make sense.

Delivery is in Q4 - so 2-4 months from now.

Despite that, the worst-case scenario which has 25% growth per difficulty change only estimates a starting difficulty of 60 million which is less than double present difficulty.  4 difficulty changes of 25% is more than that - even if you forget to do compounding.  And that's if the "worst-case" is delivery right at the start of october.

Not only does the math not work on compounding and the worst-case assume best-case scenario but the worst-case scenario is that hashing power at the start of October WITH your 500 TH/s delivered is LESS than current hashing power + your 500.  i.e. your worst-case is that not only does noone else add any hashing between now and october but that 100+ TH/s currently mining switches off.  That doesn't seem like a worst-case to me.

The models need to be adjusted to add your 500 TH/S onto hashing power when delivered - not assume everyone else will scale back out of sympathy and turn off some of their hardware to help your investors.

That's the worst-case.  Your best-case is that someone not only does EVERYONE else stop hashing but that difficulty represents less than 500 TH/s with your 500 TH/S mining.  i.e. the same error Ken made of assuming you can mine more than 100% of all coins mined.
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August 06, 2013, 10:57:18 PM
 #22

The spreadsheet doesn't seem to make sense.

Delivery is in Q4 - so 2-4 months from now.

Despite that, the worst-case scenario which has 25% growth per difficulty change only estimates a starting difficulty of 60 million which is less than double present difficulty.  4 difficulty changes of 25% is more than that - even if you forget to do compounding.  And that's if the "worst-case" is delivery right at the start of october.

Not only does the math not work on compounding and the worst-case assume best-case scenario but the worst-case scenario is that hashing power at the start of October WITH your 500 TH/s delivered is LESS than current hashing power + your 500.  i.e. your worst-case is that not only does noone else add any hashing between now and october but that 100+ TH/s currently mining switches off.  That doesn't seem like a worst-case to me.

The models need to be adjusted to add your 500 TH/S onto hashing power when delivered - not assume everyone else will scale back out of sympathy and turn off some of their hardware to help your investors.

That's the worst-case.  Your best-case is that someone not only does EVERYONE else stop hashing but that difficulty represents less than 500 TH/s with your 500 TH/S mining.  i.e. the same error Ken made of assuming you can mine more than 100% of all coins mined.
Hm, your right.
As said the document was more made as a proof of concept.
its not meant to project anyone's specific returns but a model designed for investors to plug and play scenarios.
This will enable investors to project different scenarios to see what their potential ROI can be.
The model is in no way a tool to pre determine what profits an investor will make.  it is simply a calculator for investors to play with.
It is impossible to make a exact estimate hence we do not state that we can. We simply offer a platform where you can make your own estimates.
//DeaDTerra
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August 06, 2013, 11:01:20 PM
 #23

Quote
You're the guy who brings BTC 2 SC! Nice to meet you here. Wink

Smiley A side-project of mine, yes. Skilled gaming and bitcoin are my passions, so deciding to combine the two made perfect sense.
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August 06, 2013, 11:11:53 PM
 #24

The spreadsheet doesn't seem to make sense.

Delivery is in Q4 - so 2-4 months from now.

Despite that, the worst-case scenario which has 25% growth per difficulty change only estimates a starting difficulty of 60 million which is less than double present difficulty.  4 difficulty changes of 25% is more than that - even if you forget to do compounding.  And that's if the "worst-case" is delivery right at the start of october.

Not only does the math not work on compounding and the worst-case assume best-case scenario but the worst-case scenario is that hashing power at the start of October WITH your 500 TH/s delivered is LESS than current hashing power + your 500.  i.e. your worst-case is that not only does noone else add any hashing between now and october but that 100+ TH/s currently mining switches off.  That doesn't seem like a worst-case to me.

The models need to be adjusted to add your 500 TH/S onto hashing power when delivered - not assume everyone else will scale back out of sympathy and turn off some of their hardware to help your investors.

That's the worst-case.  Your best-case is that someone not only does EVERYONE else stop hashing but that difficulty represents less than 500 TH/s with your 500 TH/S mining.  i.e. the same error Ken made of assuming you can mine more than 100% of all coins mined.
Hm, your right.
As said the document was more made as a proof of concept.
its not meant to project anyone's specific returns but a model designed for investors to plug and play scenarios.
You may take it and plug in the numbers you think seem reasonable.
To make a estimate which you think seem likely.
It is impossible to make a exact estimate hence we do not state that we can. We simply offer a platform where you can make your own estimates.
//DeaDTerra

Actually it looks like you're estimating profits as though you started hashing at next difficulty change.  Which makes it all meaningless - and it can't be fixed just by editing a few cells : that would just give a different, totally implausible, set of results.

You've produced a platform that allows people to produce meaningless output.  Which is worse than providing nothing - as it can make people believe (incorrectly) that they have some idea of what to expect and that YOU have some idea of what the liekly range of outcomes are.

Good job it's only a mining investment - where the operators make a profit whether or not investors do.  In most other areas of business you'd have needed to produce some sort of functional projections to satisfy yourself it was worth doing - but when you get a chunk of revenue even if investors make a loss I guess that isn't needed.
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August 06, 2013, 11:24:16 PM
 #25

The spreadsheet doesn't seem to make sense.

Delivery is in Q4 - so 2-4 months from now.

Despite that, the worst-case scenario which has 25% growth per difficulty change only estimates a starting difficulty of 60 million which is less than double present difficulty.  4 difficulty changes of 25% is more than that - even if you forget to do compounding.  And that's if the "worst-case" is delivery right at the start of october.

Not only does the math not work on compounding and the worst-case assume best-case scenario but the worst-case scenario is that hashing power at the start of October WITH your 500 TH/s delivered is LESS than current hashing power + your 500.  i.e. your worst-case is that not only does noone else add any hashing between now and october but that 100+ TH/s currently mining switches off.  That doesn't seem like a worst-case to me.

The models need to be adjusted to add your 500 TH/S onto hashing power when delivered - not assume everyone else will scale back out of sympathy and turn off some of their hardware to help your investors.

That's the worst-case.  Your best-case is that someone not only does EVERYONE else stop hashing but that difficulty represents less than 500 TH/s with your 500 TH/S mining.  i.e. the same error Ken made of assuming you can mine more than 100% of all coins mined.
Hm, your right.
As said the document was more made as a proof of concept.
its not meant to project anyone's specific returns but a model designed for investors to plug and play scenarios.
You may take it and plug in the numbers you think seem reasonable.
To make a estimate which you think seem likely.
It is impossible to make a exact estimate hence we do not state that we can. We simply offer a platform where you can make your own estimates.
//DeaDTerra

Actually it looks like you're estimating profits as though you started hashing at next difficulty change.  Which makes it all meaningless - and it can't be fixed just by editing a few cells : that would just give a different, totally implausible, set of results.

You've produced a platform that allows people to produce meaningless output.  Which is worse than providing nothing - as it can make people believe (incorrectly) that they have some idea of what to expect and that YOU have some idea of what the liekly range of outcomes are.

Good job it's only a mining investment - where the operators make a profit whether or not investors do.  In most other areas of business you'd have needed to produce some sort of functional projections to satisfy yourself it was worth doing - but when you get a chunk of revenue even if investors make a loss I guess that isn't needed.
While I agree that starting at the beginning of a difficulty cycle or mid difficulty cycle will have a effect of the profit outcome. We can not possible know when we start mining within the accuracy of what day within the difficulty cycle.

As stated we do not speculate on what the potential ROI or profit of the mining farm will be nor do we say that we can make any accurate estimates.
Please do use other sources and calculators that exists to make your own estimates. Based on your own diligence and research make a decision, we do not advocate people to make decisions based on our spreadsheet alone.

The IPO model is profit sharing, you purchase a % of the profit of the company hence when the company makes money so does the investors. We decided to go this way because we think it is the most fair way for the investors. We are not renting hardware or selling mining bonds, we are offering a chance to invest in the mining operations profit directly and hence take part of both the risks and profits.

Thank you for your feedback!
//DeaDTerra
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August 06, 2013, 11:45:07 PM
 #26

Please post IPO to BTCT. It just works... weexchange/bitfunder has been a consistent fail for me, i try every month or so, and i can't even get coins to my wallet. Cheers, keep up the good work. I've spoken with Hashfast and they are the real deal.

So say i grab a bunch at .0014 today... What date will there be any changes to valuation?
DeaDTerra
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August 06, 2013, 11:47:17 PM
 #27

We are now public on Bitfunder Smiley
//DeaDTerra
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August 07, 2013, 12:12:08 AM
 #28

You announce an IPO 1 hour before going live, and provide a spreadsheet as a starting point to estimate potential yields that is flawed.  Huh

The way this IPO has been executed, it seems to encourage less due diligence. In a rush of panic trying not to miss the next big thing, investors will either have to choose research or buy now depending on how fast shares sell.  Undecided

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August 07, 2013, 12:15:50 AM
 #29

I'm asking when is the next date at which valuation will deviate from .0014 / be out of IPO..

In other words how much time does everyone in the world have to get in on the IPO
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August 07, 2013, 12:21:27 AM
 #30

No one knows how much time it will take to sell out 14M shares. It could be an hour from now (doubtful) or it could be 30 days or never. Once that happens, the price will float.

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August 07, 2013, 12:35:53 AM
 #31

buyback clause of 1.2x is risky for investors... they can make a lot of coin (off the INITIAL investment of OTHERS) then just buy all the shares back at a small premium before announcing huge investments that they will only keep to themselves. this should be taken out- the forced buyback clause.

ok
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August 07, 2013, 12:37:17 AM
 #32

also, how much if ANY coins are the "shareholders/owners" putting up of their own money. or are they saying that their work/expertise is worth 40% management fee?

ok
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August 07, 2013, 12:44:04 AM
 #33

...
Hm, your right.
As said the document was more made as a proof of concept.
its not meant to project anyone's specific returns but a model designed for investors to plug and play scenarios.
This will enable investors to project different scenarios to see what their potential ROI can be.
The model is in no way a tool to pre determine what profits an investor will make.  it is simply a calculator for investors to play with.
It is impossible to make a exact estimate hence we do not state that we can. We simply offer a platform where you can make your own estimates.
//DeaDTerra

I peed my pants Cheesy
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August 07, 2013, 12:48:09 AM
 #34

also, how much if ANY coins are the "shareholders/owners" putting up of their own money. or are they saying that their work/expertise is worth 40% management fee?

Yea need an answer on this one Smiley

Psst.. Got Ether?
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August 07, 2013, 12:53:41 AM
 #35

also, how much if ANY coins are the "shareholders/owners" putting up of their own money. or are they saying that their work/expertise is worth 40% management fee?

Yea need an answer on this one Smiley

see.. i think companies developing/running asics are worth more "management fees" as more difficult work is required (making the asics).
40% ownership if nothing is put up on their part (besides ordering and setting the facility up) is quite a big cut

ok
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August 07, 2013, 12:57:48 AM
 #36


Purpose of the asset
Money raised through this offering will be combined with privately-raised capital (already secured) for the purpose of purchasing specialized ASIC mining equipment and establishing a secure, climate-controlled mine facility in Europe (the exact location is already selected but is confidential for security reasons).


So how much capital did the company raise previously?
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August 07, 2013, 12:59:46 AM
 #37

I would like to invest, but still not convinced.

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August 07, 2013, 01:02:57 AM
 #38

People better get in fast because these shares are a bargain compared to the other mining companies. We are going to see another IPO mania (like Labcoin and BTCGARDEN) as people sell off their other mining shares to get in on the action.
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August 07, 2013, 01:05:48 AM
 #39

People better get in fast because these shares are a bargain compared to the other mining companies. We are going to see another IPO mania (like Labcoin and BTCGARDEN) as people sell off their other mining shares to get in on the action.

at 7 million USD compared to 1.5 million for Labcoin- this is a bargain how?

ok
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August 07, 2013, 01:06:40 AM
 #40

Please post IPO to BTCT. It just works... weexchange/bitfunder has been a consistent fail for me, i try every month or so, and i can't even get coins to my wallet. Cheers, keep up the good work. I've spoken with Hashfast and they are the real deal.

So say i grab a bunch at .0014 today... What date will there be any changes to valuation?

No.

BTCT is full of fail. Just look at the Labcoin IPO fiasco where people couldn't deposit coins in time to buy. Bitfunder all the way.
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