► ► ►HashFast Endorsement

[Loredo]

I do think the growth phase will be very sharp, though.

  As surprising as that might be, I think we're in agreement on something.  

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[Ytterbium]

It is important to consider that not all units (either delivered or proposed) have similar electrical efficiency.  In a curve like indicated above one is in a better position if the efficiency (chip efficiency, PSU efficiency, and individual electrical rates) is superior to the "average Joe".  As difficulty climbs the margins on the marginal miner (higher electrical cost in USD per hash) will be crushed first.  Those miners will go negative and once they are sure that price/difficulty isn't going to improve eventually idle their rigs.  That means it is possible for hashrate to decline independent of price, of course any decline will be short lived as miners calculate higher ROI% on new units and place orders.  Unless shipping time is 1 day though there will be a lag (we have seen it in the GPU era even with supplies essentially unconstrained) and those higher efficiency units will be able to power through.

Still there are always risks involved.  The odds are nobody is going to make a fortune mining anymore.  I would be happy to just generate some coins at a small margin and reduce the needs to deal with awful exchanges.

Another important point: by the time an Avalon unit is no longer electrically efficient the difficulty will be around 2-5 billion, depending on power costs.

At that point this HashFast unit will be making only about $8-4 a day, even if it's just 100 Watts.

So, while that's going to be an issue in the long run, there's still a lot of profit to be had on the way up from 300 million to 2 billion difficulty.

That's why KnC is a better bet right now even though it's more expensive.  I think it's pretty likely that a KnC unit delivered in September or October will at least cover the cost difference between this and their units.

That said, I do think HashFast will get a lot of sales anyway.  

If HashFast wants sales, they should tie the hashrate of their miners to the difficulty rate on delivery.  I.e. so you buy the equivalent of 500TH/s today, if the difficulty goes up more then expected, they'd send you more hash power.

[cypherdoc]

Still there are always risks involved.  The odds are nobody is going to make a fortune mining anymore.  I would be happy to just generate some coins at a small margin and reduce the needs to deal with awful exchanges.

I think you just about summed it up. Honestly I don't think that you can realistically expect to make much of a return assuming that the price of Bitcoin stays at the same $100 level. The only people that will get a great ROI are the ones selling the miners.

i for one do not think the price is going to stay at 100.

[Xialla]

I almost fell out of my chair when I saw that.  Well played.  

....however we're better off just buying BTC at this point and doing some creative trading on Gox.  Better chance of seeing our cash returned at the end of the day.

thanks.))

..and yes, exactly.

[cypherdoc]

If HashFast wants sales, they should tie the hashrate of their miners to the difficulty rate on delivery.  I.e. so you buy the equivalent of 500TH/s today, if the difficulty goes up more then expected, they'd send you more hash power.

someone is very prescient.

[Ytterbium]

i for one do not think the price is going to stay at 100.

Then you can just buy bitcoin, or not spend it.

I'm sure the people who spent 3000 BTC or equivalent for a BFL mini-rig wished they had...

[superduh]

given the fact that if people kept their btcs instead of giving to bfl they would be RICH and have more coins . getting people to give up non-"refundable" coins is a very dangerous thing to ask for if there are no prototypes or anything real for people to judge by. just saying take our word for it makes you no different than yifu or bfl josh. the gen 1 asic companies have really fucked up people's trust. and with so many delays etc some people feel it's safer to invest USD as opposed to BTC since ROI on BTC is in BTC for most

[Xialla]

i for one do not think the price is going to stay at 100.

yes, but in this case is MUCH better to buy bitcoins at 100 instead of 3 months free loan. just because money makes money and you should operate with them and react for any upcoming situation. it is so simple for understanding..

[cypherdoc]

given the fact that if people kept their btcs instead of giving to bfl they would be RICH and have more coins . getting people to give up non-"refundable" coins is a very dangerous thing to ask for if there are no prototypes or anything real for people to judge by. just saying take our word for it makes you no different than yifu or bfl josh. the gen 1 asic companies have really fucked up people's trust. and with so many delays etc some people feel it's safer to invest USD as opposed to BTC since ROI on BTC is in BTC for most

you should be ok.  they have told me they will offer full refunds by the end of year if they're late.  also look for plans for a miner protection plan.

[cypherdoc]

i for one do not think the price is going to stay at 100.

yes, but in this case is MUCH better to buy bitcoins at 100 instead of 3 months free loan. just because money makes money and you should operate with them and react for any upcoming situation. it is so simple for understanding..

maybe.  i enjoy mining however, and i'd like to think i'm doing my part in decentralizing the network.  but yes, i do expect to make a healthy return also on the rigs.

[crumbs]

i for one do not think the price is going to stay at 100.

yes, but in this case is MUCH better to buy bitcoins at 100 instead of 3 months free loan. just because money makes money and you should operate with them and react for any upcoming situation. it is so simple for understanding..

maybe.  i enjoy mining however, and i'd like to think i'm doing my part in decentralizing the network.  but yes, i do expect to make a healthy return also on the rigs.

So HashFast is seriously planning for the contingency of better gear being available when its gear is ready?  Is that the rationale for not allowing CC?  

[reactor]

Still there are always risks involved.  The odds are nobody is going to make a fortune mining anymore.  I would be happy to just generate some coins at a small margin and reduce the needs to deal with awful exchanges.

I think you just about summed it up. Honestly I don't think that you can realistically expect to make much of a return assuming that the price of Bitcoin stays at the same $100 level. The only people that will get a great ROI are the ones selling the miners.

i for one do not think the price is going to stay at 100.

While a fascinating endorsement and belief in the rising price of Bitcoin, your gut feeling does not encourage opening ones wallet.  Unless you are implying you are aware <conspiracy time> of some intent to manipulate the market to ensure that this upcoming generation of miners will seem more attractive than they really are because everyone is on the feel-good of rising prices?  Before the inevitable realization that once people start heavily investing in mining hardware with large sums of money that the natural behavior will be to sell increasing amounts of the Bitcoin being mined, driving the price down after all the ASIC vendors have cashed out? So you are right, the price is likely not going to stay at $100. </conspiracy time>

[Loredo]

you should be ok.  they have told me they will offer full refunds by the end of year if they're late.  also look for plans for a miner protection plan.

Uhh...aren't sales already going on, over on a different thread?  

Oh, well.  Somethings just slip thought the cracks, sometimes.  

[Loredo]

i'd like to think i'm doing my part in decentralizing the network.

With all due respect, Sir: spare us.  

Didn't HashFast just do the deal with IceDrill, to bring more hash power on line in November than exists at this moment in time?  And yeah, everybody can has the opportunity to buy a little participation in that, so maybe that's decentralized.

[cypherdoc]

i'd like to think i'm doing my part in decentralizing the network.

With all due respect, Sir: spare us.  

Didn't HashFast just do the deal with IceDrill, to bring more hash power on line in November than exists at this moment in time?  And yeah, everybody can has the opportunity to buy a little participation in that, so maybe that's decentralized.

i don't have to spare you anything, dude.  i am actively solo mining with my avalons right now.

[dogie]

This thread is a joke.

tldr: I've been paid to say these people are legitimate, so they're legitimate.

[Loredo]

i'd like to think i'm doing my part in decentralizing the network.

With all due respect, Sir: spare us.  

Didn't HashFast just do the deal with IceDrill, to bring more hash power on line in November than exists at this moment in time?  And yeah, everybody can has the opportunity to buy a little participation in that, so maybe that's decentralized.

i don't have to spare you anything, dude.  i am actively solo mining with my avalons right now.

That's fine.  But you're also acting in the capacity of a paid advocate for a company which, if successful, will change the topology of the network in a way that is further and further away from the notion of one-CPU, one vote.

I have no problem with your participation in that, BTW.  I just don't think you're a simple solo miner any longer...

[cypherdoc]

This thread is a joke.

tldr: I've been paid to say these people are legitimate, so they're legitimate.

actually, it's the other way around.

[smoothie]

If they are so sure of themselves then send me unit and I will pay in BTC when it is hashing.  

This made me laugh.

Translation: "Give me your money making machine. Once I get it setup and hashing to make me money ...then I will give you money."

It isn't that they need to be sure of themselves. You need to be sure of your tolerance for risk. Any investment has risk. You just have to determine your risk tolerance. Obviously you dont fit this risk model.

[cypherdoc]

i'd like to think i'm doing my part in decentralizing the network.

With all due respect, Sir: spare us.  

Didn't HashFast just do the deal with IceDrill, to bring more hash power on line in November than exists at this moment in time?  And yeah, everybody can has the opportunity to buy a little participation in that, so maybe that's decentralized.

i don't have to spare you anything, dude.  i am actively solo mining with my avalons right now.

That's fine.  But you're also acting in the capacity of a paid advocate for a company which, if successful, will change the topology of the network in a way that is further and further away from the notion of one-CPU, one vote.

I have no problem with your participation in that, BTW.  I just don't think you're a simple solo miner any longer...

i've been saying for months now that ASIC mining companies will NOT result in centralization of the network.  look around you.  the competition is so intense to sell these chips and rigs that a company CANNOT AFFORD to ignore the small mining segment.  just look at the price of the BabyJet.  $5600?  are you kidding me?  that is very cheap compared to what we've seen.  and most likely the prices will be driven down more over time.  the real question is when to get in.