Track Record Forum Members

[RationalSpeculator]

But its SOOO much more fun to make the call, have everybody ignore you and then laugh as you take their coinz!  

Posted when BTC was 87...

Hope all you newbie doomsayers got back in!    If not, well welcome to bitcoin and thanks for your coins.  Trading here requires a steady hand; its not for the faint of heart.  You can choose low volatility and inflation (USD), or high volatility and deflation (BTC)  

Good call indeed, price continued to go up from $87 to $111 by July 31st.

Added you to the list.

Actually I don't think anymore this was a good call. You don't make a call. From what I see, now that the price is back up to $87, you are laughing with people that sold their coins on the recent correction that bottomed at $65. You make no statement about future price expectations and whether to buy or sell. So I removed this plus.

If you disagree, I value your feedback.

[1713573477]

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[RationalSpeculator]

People, congrats to all who are still holding... im letting my last block go today.  I think this is SO unhealthy for btc.  When this thing roles over its gonna drop dramatically.  It will burn so many newbies.  They will not want to come back.  

A gradual rise, with sensible ups and downs would build the base of users much better.  But THIS?!?!  This is just BS, bad news for adoption.  This will ultimately set us back.  

Any one who thinks its like a singularity or something are just caught up in the euphoria.  Nothing hits adoption like this.  Maybe i'll be proven wrong, but i doubt it.  These new buys understand very little about btc other than its going up fast and they can make quick money.  When it starts to drop they will understand no more about btc as a currency, only that it is dropping and looks like a bubble bursting.

Thoughts?  Did i do right selling out today?  Or will i get run over as this sucker goes straight to $1k.

--
Doob

Great call, doobadoo sold out at $236, and warned the others, price went up the day after to $266 and collapsed instantly to $105 only to close at $165, 6 days later it bottomed at $50.

[RationalSpeculator]

I have.  And its not pleasant.  In fact, they are extremely vicious.  Without appropriate risk management, they have the ability to wipe you out.

Imagine the Spring ramp repeating itself while you're holding short.  The mentality has settled in with virtually all the Bears that Bitcoin is done and is going to zero.  They are taking their victory laps and cheering their profits.  This type of mentality is just as bad as the speculative bubble, only in reverse.  

I have most unpleasant news for you.  The Squeeze of the Century is coming.  It may not be tomorrow, next month, or even next year, buts its coming and you will be crushed.  

I know the feeling.  You shorts are probably sleeping less well now while you're making profits than you did before.  Thats because deep down you know the protocol has not failed, you know that 99% of the people want Bitcoin but just don't know it yet, you know the developers are still out there and working on improvements, and you know that big money is waiting on the sidelines for the perfect time to buy and buy hard.

Typically the ramps come in the middle of the night.  You wake up and the price has doubled trapping you deeply in the losing trade.  You wait and wait for the price to come back down but it never does as the price moves upwards incessantly to force you to cover.  The pendulum has swung too far to the wrong side.

Just wait.  Its coming...

Great call from cypherdoc, price averaged $2.6 that day april the 18th 2011. He warned the others that it would go up. Exactly 1 month later on November 18th 2011 it found it's bottom at $2 and went up strongly from there for 2 years in a row ending in the spike of $266 on april 10th 2013. To my knowledge he remained bullish and advised to buy the whole way up.

[RationalSpeculator]

BTFD

This was a bad call by cypherdoc. His letters above stand for 'Buy The Fucking Dip'. His corresponding paying newsletter made the case to buy on the correction that famous day of April 10th 2013 when the price peaked out at $266 and collapsed instantly. He advised his clients to buy that dip. Taking the average price of that day $184 as a buy in point led to huge losses as the price ended that day at $165 and continued to go down bottoming at $50 only 6 days later. Today, 4 months later, the price never touched that $184 again and stands currently at $103 (bitstamp). To my knowledge he has remained bullish, advising to buy, on the whole way down up until today.  

[RationalSpeculator]

Here is my calls 100% trend accuracy:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=238095.msg2530362#msg2530362
Called the 0.0055 Bottom on LTC/BTC-https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=157440.msg1667644#msg1667644
 Called the buy signal on 3.17.2013 at 48.15 -https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=154119.msg1633552#msg1633552
 Called the correction from 49 to 33 -https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=149817.msg1591419#msg1591419
 Called the rally from 5.2 on 5.31.2012 -https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=96878.msg1067596#msg1067596

Thanks for informing. Would you be willing to follow the format to quote the call here, 1 call per post, and say why it was a good call, mentioning what the price did afterwards? That way I can easily add you to the list without spending too much time.  

[RationalSpeculator]

I will enter buy side at $50-$100, sell 10% (total) to strength between $200-$500.

I am hoping a stabilization for a few weeks/months at $100-$150.

Recently updated my 3-month forecast and the weighted avg target price was EUR 533. Despite all, it is a sickly strong buy.

This was a bad call by rpietila also made on that famous day of April 10th 2013 when price peaked out at $266. He advises to buy and forecasts the price to average around €533 the next 3 months.

Price started tumbling that day to a low of $50 only 6 days later, taking the average price of $184 of that day, this buy signal led to huge losses.

The average price the next 3 months turned out to be around $100 or €75 instead of €533.

[RationalSpeculator]

20 days after the April 10 peak



The most significant resistance to increasing bitcoin prices is currently above $145. The recent peak at $160 has not yet been surpassed.

Now that 20 days have elapsed after the all-time-high of $266, the amount of buying enthusiasm that used to arrive each Monday morning is waning. Based upon the decline back to underlying trend predicted by speculative financial bubble theory, and comparison with the June, 2011 bubble, I expect the trading emphasis to shift to defending the support at $120, rather than pushing above $160 to new highs. I believe, that until $120 is breached to the downside, the way down will be primarily motivated by profit taking, and below $120 by loss-staunching and periodic capitulations.

What would negate the case for a the short term bear market? New high prices, in particular a new all time high.  What would confirm the case? A long battle at $120 with a breakthrough to lower prices, in particular a low below $60.

Sentiment continues to cool 20 days post bubble peak, e.g. Google Trends, Reddit.

I sold some more bitcoins at $135 and have outstanding sell orders below $150, attempting to raise more $ selling into what I think is a Sucker's Rally.

Great call from SlipperySlope. When price was at $140 on April 30th he predicts it to fall to $120, and if it goes below $120 he predicts it to fall even more, seeing 'loss staunching and periodic capitulation'.

The next day the prices started collapsing and bottomed at $79 already 3 days later on May 3th. Today, 3.5 months later, that price of $140 was not touched again.

[afbitcoins]

If you make trades based on what other people think thats fine but you can't then blame them for it. Very few people could predict when that parabolic price rise would crash. Nobody would predict every move unless they happen to be god. Price crash happened at $266 but I would have not been surprised at all if it had instead kept going and hit $500 a week later.

When price hit $70 less than 2 months ago I wrongly predicted it would continue down to the bottom of the long term channel. Thats the breaks, technical analysis predicted it would, but that doesn't account for Ben Bernanke deciding to start blabbering about tapering the QE.

Long term predictions are much easier. In the long term, whether you bought at $266 or $50 both will be considered very cheap one day. Bitcoins can and most likely will rise a lot more. This is a consequence of keynsian economics, and an unbacked fiat monetary system.

[RationalSpeculator]

the Forum has been inundated with trolls probably from the Street who are desperately trying to get their hands on bitcoin.  you can tell this by the pronouncements of doom and gloom from these people.  as the stock market plummets, these punks are looking for the next bull market to rotate into and its bitcoin.  but they need to get you to sell to them so don't let it happen.  we are going back up and soon.

Bad call by cypherdoc. On June 11th 2011 when price had just peaked out at $31.5, 2 days before, and was averaging at $17.6 that day, he advises not to sell but to buy hold (edit: I stand corrected) and predicts it will go back up.

The price continued to fall for 5 months in a row to a low of $2 by November 18th 2011.

To my knowledge be remained bullish the whole way down.

[Zephir]

Loozik made some really incredible predictions in the last month in the Wall Observer Thread.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=101803;sa=showPosts

I found these 3 guys on a btc chart gambling site too, with more than 70% win rate.
http://btcoracle.com/leaderboard.php

[RationalSpeculator]

If you make trades based on what other people think thats fine but you can't then blame them for it.

Good point. I agree. It's your own decision that you followed their opinion, so if you want to blame someone, start with yourself.

Equally if you follow one's opinion and it works out, and you want to praise someone, start with praising yourself since you made that decision to follow them.

Blaming others or yourself is not healthy though. It's called self attack and leads to more of the same since you don't come to an understanding of why you did something, but instead try to ban it. It won't work and you will repeat since the cause of your mistake was not addressed. Praising someone or yourself is the other end of the spectrum and also not healthy since you don't come to an understanding why you or the other person did it right.

I do think it is ok to thank for opinion that proved valuable, and to point out opinion that proved wrong.

And ofcourse, if you do follow people's opinion, as I also do, it is wise to study their track record and see their success rate.

Studying track records is a lot of work though, this thread shares my work on this, and I hope people share their knowledge on people's track record here also.

[Loozik]

I am world's probably worst trader, and there is no way I could ever dream of aspiring to your list. But if there is some sort of reward / prize in this competition, then I would like you to consider me.

I made a call telling the price will go from 66 to 123

trading call: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?PHPSESSID=ajb3vm56v6ao5s38q6jgc7cm22&topic=178336.msg2673061#msg2673061
trading call confirmation: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg2965168#msg2965168

Then for those who missed the 66 bottom I made two calls to catch up the move.

trading call: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?PHPSESSID=mcr4tdi9nppt5a7p5fditsn9k4&topic=178336.msg2676745#msg2676745
trading call confirmation: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?PHPSESSID=mcr4tdi9nppt5a7p5fditsn9k4&topic=178336.msg2677325#msg2677325

trading call: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?PHPSESSID=mcr4tdi9nppt5a7p5fditsn9k4&topic=178336.msg2729995#msg2729995
trading call confirmation: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?PHPSESSID=mcr4tdi9nppt5a7p5fditsn9k4&topic=178336.msg2734572#msg2734572

After being criticized, I promised not to make any more BTCUSD calls, but if you encourage me I might consider giving non-BTCUSD calls

Would the above count for 1 or for 3 calls?

[0xz[.]]

I'm considering selling all of mine at the market price of $175, and waiting to see what happens next. Its so hard to decide lol. What if it hits $200? etc.

You are in BTC because of fiat profits? SELL SELL SELL

You are in BTC because of freedom? HOLD HOLD HOLD

Every BTC sold goes from weak hands to stronger hands. Just do it!

This was a bad call. After the market has gone up for many months in a row, parabolically, Rampion advises someone who considered selling at $175 to hold.

2 days later, on April 10th, the price peaked out at $266 and crashed to $105, only to end the day at $165.

It continued to go down the days after and bottomed around $50 only a week later.

What price would you have sold ?  at $120, $140, $160...?    Now it's easy to talk about but then...

[thezerg]

I'm beginning to think that your requirements are for a freakin' oracle.  Markets are fractal.  Nobody could predict that Apr 10 was going to be THE dump; in a mirror universe we could have topped at 150 or 500.  But it doesn't matter that that could not be predicted because anyone playing the "dip" made a lot on the dump -- or lost a lot less then they would have if they weren't playing the dip.  Sure they might have made MORE if the prediction had been "this is the dump".  But it remains good advice.  In other words, some people were noticing that we were in the stratosphere and advocating shaking loose some fiat for btc repurchase at a lower price and others -- rpietelia for the most extreme example --- were still pumping for a much higher price.  Which group do you think is the one making honest predictions and which is the one attempting to influence the market?

Stock prediction is complex and I think you are falling into the trap of simplifying it down to uselessness.  I know someone who back in '99 (during the internet investing bubble) entered a stock prediction challenge (it was promoting a stock opinion website) and actually won 10k.  Just to give you an idea of how he did it ... first step, pick a stock with incredibly low volatility.

But in the real world, its better to be partly right most of the time rather then being exactly right once.


Also, FYI price hit near $50 around 48 hours after the drop... the price was flying all over the place due to DDOS.  It then hit it again 6 days later on the 16th, which is the bottom that I think you keep referring to. http://www.bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg180zig15-minzczsg2013-04-09zeg2013-04-16ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv.

These 2, plus the recent $65 price form the "triple bottom" that has provided the confidence needed for the current run up.

[superduh]

how do blitz, EM and the gang stack up?

[RationalSpeculator]

I am world's probably worst trader, and there is no way I could ever dream of aspiring to your list. But if there is some sort of reward / prize in this competition, then I would like you to consider me.

Hi Loozik

There is no reward or price. I hope though that this thread helps people to evaluate better who's opinions to follow and who's opinions to be careful about.

Having a proven good track record has high reputation value and can be leveraged in different ways: newsletter, fund, etc.

[RationalSpeculator]

how do blitz, EM and the gang stack up?

Post their calls here and we will get a better picture.

I'm especially interested in 'the gang' since I suspect their opinions/reputation are overvalued since it's mostly based on quantity and funz instead of quality. But finding their calls and refering to subsequent price is some work. Your help would be valued by me. I would say target those that you find overvalued or undervalued.

[RationalSpeculator]

I am world's probably worst trader, and there is no way I could ever dream of aspiring to your list. But if there is some sort of reward / prize in this competition, then I would like you to consider me.

I made a call telling the price will go from 66 to 123

trading call: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?PHPSESSID=ajb3vm56v6ao5s38q6jgc7cm22&topic=178336.msg2673061#msg2673061
trading call confirmation: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg2965168#msg2965168

Then for those who missed the 66 bottom I made two calls to catch up the move.

trading call: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?PHPSESSID=mcr4tdi9nppt5a7p5fditsn9k4&topic=178336.msg2676745#msg2676745
trading call confirmation: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?PHPSESSID=mcr4tdi9nppt5a7p5fditsn9k4&topic=178336.msg2677325#msg2677325

trading call: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?PHPSESSID=mcr4tdi9nppt5a7p5fditsn9k4&topic=178336.msg2729995#msg2729995
trading call confirmation: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?PHPSESSID=mcr4tdi9nppt5a7p5fditsn9k4&topic=178336.msg2734572#msg2734572

After being criticized, I promised not to make any more BTCUSD calls, but if you encourage me I might consider giving non-BTCUSD calls

Would the above count for 1 or for 3 calls?

Great call indeed. I think it's one call since you called from $66 to $120, and that's what happened. You did confirm the call twice, at $72 and $96, but it wasn't a new call since it repeated the same message, that price would continue to go up and your $120 was not yet reached.

Fair? What do you think?

I'm sorry to hear you stopped making calls. Was the criticism valid?

[MAbtc]

how do blitz, EM and the gang stack up?

For those of us that consider the real price to be Bitstamp / BTC-E and not Gox, Blitz hasn't really been far off the mark.

[RationalSpeculator]

Great call from Loozik. When price was $66 on July 7th he predicted it would go up. He did not mention $120 but did draw the line to $120 on his chart (first chart below). On the same day when the price had gone up from $66 to $72 he confirmed it was still a good trade to make and predicted it would continue to go up (second chart). A week later on July 14th when the price had moved up already strongly to $96 he confirmed his call that the price would continue to go up (third chart).

Indeed price bottomed right at $66 that day when he called it. When he confirmed at $72 the same day, it indeed continued to go up. When it hit $96 on July 14th he confirmed again that it would continue to go up, and indeed it hit $120 a month later on August 18th.

Last chance guys to buy cheap coins.

Prepare for the price to:
a) go slightly above 72
then
b) drop quickly to 70.40 - 70.60

Next the train will leave the station heading north.

Be quick