Track Record Forum Members

[NewLiberty]

I hope you succeed in the future to also get the big picture right (that the bull market was over and a bear market would start) and that you choose the right course of action so that you help yourself and others to reduce losses instead of increasing them.

You do realize that for someone to profit in trading, someone else has to lose, right?

Yes. Why you ask?

It sounded like you were saying it was a holy mission to correctly predict the market, and everybody would profit from this.

EDIT: maybe, to the extent that trading could be useful (in providing information to the economy), correctly predicting price based on value fundamentals is the best thing that a trader can do.

Some-but-Not-all-traders are readers of this forum.  It appears that RS is looking to give some advantage to those-that-are-readers over those-that-are-not.
Whatever you may think of the methods and motives for this, the result is a condensation of information which may benefit those-who-are-readers.

[RationalSpeculator]

I'm considering selling all of mine at the market price of $175, and waiting to see what happens next. Its so hard to decide lol. What if it hits $200? etc.

You are in BTC because of fiat profits? SELL SELL SELL

You are in BTC because of freedom? HOLD HOLD HOLD

Every BTC sold goes from weak hands to stronger hands. Just do it!

This was a bad call. After the market has gone up for many months in a row, parabolically, Rampion advises someone who considered selling at $175 to hold.

2 days later, on April 10th, the price peaked out at $266 and crashed to $105, only to end the day at $165.

It continued to go down the days after and bottomed around $50 only a week later.

What price would you have sold ?  at $120, $140, $160...?    Now it's easy to talk about but then...

What I or others did has no relevance to his call being good or bad.

I agree it was not easy then, and Rampion his call shows little regard for that and on top turned out completely wrong.  

For your info, I advised others to sell some, and keep some (and did the same myself) but was mostly screamed over by messages such as Rampion's one above.  

[superduh]

blitz: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg2822165;topicseen#msg2822165

EM - his nonsense is all over this forum (dude likely gets paid by someone to sit on here all day)

the gang - not sure they are on my ignore list and some used to make new topics everyday with their doom and gloom statments

maybe blitz got rid of some of them or they could all be EM's alter egos

[superduh]

how do blitz, EM and the gang stack up?

For those of us that consider the real price to be Bitstamp / BTC-E and not Gox, Blitz hasn't really been far off the mark.

bitstamp and btc-e are not the real price either - it's somewhere between mtgox and both. btc-e has such low volume (i think coinbase prob even does more) that they shouldn't even be referenced any longer

[ElectricMucus]

blitz: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg2822165;topicseen#msg2822165

EM - his nonsense is all over this forum (dude likely gets paid by someone to sit on here all day)

the gang - not sure they are on my ignore list and some used to make new topics everyday with their doom and gloom statments

maybe blitz got rid of some of them or they could all be EM's alter egos

No actually it's just you and me.
I am an ELIZA bot and operate 99.9% of Bitcointalks forums accounts.

Also I stalked you home last night.

[RationalSpeculator]

blitz: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg2822165;topicseen#msg2822165

This is a wrong call indeed, price was at $110 on July 14th/18th, Blitz predicts it goes down, and today it's at $120.

But not worth people's time to list and study, I prefer to quote calls that led to huge losses or profits if followed.  You know, the juicy ones

[MAbtc]

how do blitz, EM and the gang stack up?

For those of us that consider the real price to be Bitstamp / BTC-E and not Gox, Blitz hasn't really been far off the mark.

bitstamp and btc-e are not the real price either - it's somewhere between mtgox and both. btc-e has such low volume (i think coinbase prob even does more) that they shouldn't even be referenced any longer

BTC-E still has 6% of the market. I mention it mainly because I trade there and it echoes Bitstamp's prices, not Gox's. Considering that every exchange has a considerable spread with Gox, it is clear that Gox is not the real price and that it is much closer to the other exchanges.

Gox 121
Stamp 104
BTC-E 100
CampBX 103

No question that Gox is quite artificial at the moment.

[RationalSpeculator]

People, please there are other threads to discuss price difference gox and others. I'd like to keep this thread focused on track record and evaluation of calls only.

"Stay on target ... stay on target ..."

[superduh]

how do blitz, EM and the gang stack up?

For those of us that consider the real price to be Bitstamp / BTC-E and not Gox, Blitz hasn't really been far off the mark.

bitstamp and btc-e are not the real price either - it's somewhere between mtgox and both. btc-e has such low volume (i think coinbase prob even does more) that they shouldn't even be referenced any longer

BTC-E still has 6% of the market. I mention it mainly because I trade there and it echoes Bitstamp's prices, not Gox's. Considering that every exchange has a considerable spread with Gox, it is clear that Gox is not the real price and that it is much closer to the other exchanges.

Gox 121
Stamp 104
BTC-E 100
CampBX 103

No question that Gox is quite artificial at the moment.

well if gox is artificially keeping prices high - other exchanges are artificially keeping the price low.
if gox is 50% of all exchanges - then like i said the ACTUAL price is somewhere in between gox and bitstamp.
using the numbers you've provided i'd say my nonscientific estimate is about $110.88 being the real value

[MAbtc]

how do blitz, EM and the gang stack up?

For those of us that consider the real price to be Bitstamp / BTC-E and not Gox, Blitz hasn't really been far off the mark.

bitstamp and btc-e are not the real price either - it's somewhere between mtgox and both. btc-e has such low volume (i think coinbase prob even does more) that they shouldn't even be referenced any longer

BTC-E still has 6% of the market. I mention it mainly because I trade there and it echoes Bitstamp's prices, not Gox's. Considering that every exchange has a considerable spread with Gox, it is clear that Gox is not the real price and that it is much closer to the other exchanges.

Gox 121
Stamp 104
BTC-E 100
CampBX 103

No question that Gox is quite artificial at the moment.

well if gox is artificially keeping prices high - other exchanges are artificially keeping the price low.
if gox is 50% of all exchanges - then like i said the ACTUAL price is somewhere in between gox and bitstamp.
using the numbers you've provided i'd say my nonscientific estimate is about $110.88 being the real value

That argument holds no water. There is an external situation keeping prices high at Gox. It doesn't logically follow that prices at other exchanges are artificially low.

It's the value of USD in question. At Bitstamp, $1 = $1, so price should accurately reflect the market. At Gox, this isn't true, and we know that the market values Gox $ significantly less than $ at other exchanges. So the real price should be determined by an aggregate of exchanges, excluding Gox.

Sorry OP, delete posts if needed.

[superduh]

blitz: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg2822165;topicseen#msg2822165

This is a wrong call indeed, price was at $110 on July 14th/18th, Blitz predicts it goes down, and today it's at $120.

But not worth people's time to list and study, I prefer to quote calls that led to huge losses or profits if followed.  You know, the juicy ones

dude, blitz made MANY wrong calls (few right calls too) but, his latest calls have been way off base and since he said we will not see triple digits this year COULD have caused people losses of sorts. you don't want to put him on cause he's a mod here?

[RationalSpeculator]

blitz: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg2822165;topicseen#msg2822165

This is a wrong call indeed, price was at $110 on July 14th/18th, Blitz predicts it goes down, and today it's at $120.

But not worth people's time to list and study, I prefer to quote calls that led to huge losses or profits if followed.  You know, the juicy ones

dude, blitz made MANY wrong calls (few right calls too) but, his latest calls have been way off base and since he said we will not see triple digits this year COULD have caused people losses of sorts. you don't want to put him on cause he's a mod here?

I realize he is the mod. I don't think he will remove it. Could you quote some more grave bad calls from him? I'll put them all on the list. It's just that $10 difference seems low, and it's so recent, so he could end up still being right on that one. Wasn't he also screaming sell around $70 1 month ago?

[Loozik]

There is no reward or price.

That's a pity. I hoped to get one Satoshi or even two Satoshis as a reward

Fair? What do you think?

Fair. Extremely happy to have gotten a plus.

Having a proven good track record has high reputation value and can be leveraged in different ways: newsletter, fund, etc.

Newsletter? - not with my English. Fund? - already did this. Will stick to etc in the future

[monkeybars]

Hi! I'm no day trader. But here's some self-aggrandizement anyways. I've made a number of longer term predictions on this site that still lie in the future. But I do nominate myself for this prediction:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=250577.msg2823035#msg2823035

wherein I predicted on 7/12/13 the price would be $103 on 7/31. $103 was about the average price between Mt Gox and Bitstamp that day, though it was quite volatile around it.

So that's one of out one predictions that lie in the past

monkeybars +1

[notme]

the Forum has been inundated with trolls probably from the Street who are desperately trying to get their hands on bitcoin.  you can tell this by the pronouncements of doom and gloom from these people.  as the stock market plummets, these punks are looking for the next bull market to rotate into and its bitcoin.  but they need to get you to sell to them so don't let it happen.  we are going back up and soon.

Bad call by cypherdoc. On June 11th 2011 when price had just peaked out at $31.5, 2 days before, and was averaging at $17.6 that day, he advises not to sell but to buy and predicts it will go back up.

The price continued to fall for 5 months in a row to a low of $2 by November 18th 2011.

To my knowledge be remained bullish the whole way down.

And because he is well capitalized, he was able to buy all the way down.  Perhaps his "soon" is different from what you assumed "soon" to mean.  He's way up at these prices.

[0xz[.]]

Are you really going to do this because of that petty spat in lucif's thread? This a dick move, and frankly, it's pathetic. This forum is awash with bad predictions..... and you're going to make a thread about Rampion? Really uncalled for.

[...]  I'd like to share my experience with others, and hope they will share theirs with me, so I can avoid people that are more wrong than right, and find the few diamonds in here.     [...]

Nice initiative.  And very interesting this thread. Obviously there will be people who will feel very hurt but we have a right to know these analyzes and the degree of successes.

[RationalSpeculator]

the Forum has been inundated with trolls probably from the Street who are desperately trying to get their hands on bitcoin.  you can tell this by the pronouncements of doom and gloom from these people.  as the stock market plummets, these punks are looking for the next bull market to rotate into and its bitcoin.  but they need to get you to sell to them so don't let it happen.  we are going back up and soon.

Bad call by cypherdoc. On June 11th 2011 when price had just peaked out at $31.5, 2 days before, and was averaging at $17.6 that day, he advises not to sell but to buy and predicts it will go back up.

The price continued to fall for 5 months in a row to a low of $2 by November 18th 2011.

To my knowledge be remained bullish the whole way down.

And because he is well capitalized, he was able to buy all the way down.  Perhaps his "soon" is different from what you assumed "soon" to mean.  He's way up at these prices.

I don't think I am misrepresenting his 'soon'. I have followed cypherdoc his newsletter and soon means the coming weeks, not in 5 months after first correcting -80%.

I hope you are able to judge a call objectively, independent of your feelings for this person?


Let's say like cypherdoc I predict, but that the market will go down soon and say: "sell your coins to all those suckers. we are going down soon." The inverse happens, it goes up by 800% for 5 months in a row. I continue to predict it will go down though, also right on the high. Then it starts to go down but it takes 2 years to go below that price where I made the call, but indeed it goes much lower and my call becomes true.

Proudly I bump the thread continuously where I called it will go down right at the top. Someone points out that was a great call indeed but the call earlier was wrong and I say: "hey I sold even more coins as it went up, and now 2 year later the price is indeed much lower as original". Even if this is right, it was still a poor call as it first went up by 800%.


I agree he is way up at current prices, just like anyone who bought in 2011.

Stick with it was the art though, and he definitely succeeded in that, and helped many others to stick with it, me included.

However, he does not teach any risk management, is silent about his wrong calls while very public about his right calls, gets defensive if you confront him about his wrong calls, and repeats his mistakes to continue to advise to buy even after parabolic epic rises. He did it in 2011, and again in 2013 as I prove in this thread.

Basically he is acting as a goldbug. Always bullish, always advising to buy, even when proven seriously wrong, not recognizing it, not taking responsibility and when confronted denying, minimising and ridiculing.  

This is a serious red flag. Very likely, if bitcoin fails, he fails and everyone who follows him. Be aware.

  

[notme]

the Forum has been inundated with trolls probably from the Street who are desperately trying to get their hands on bitcoin.  you can tell this by the pronouncements of doom and gloom from these people.  as the stock market plummets, these punks are looking for the next bull market to rotate into and its bitcoin.  but they need to get you to sell to them so don't let it happen.  we are going back up and soon.

Bad call by cypherdoc. On June 11th 2011 when price had just peaked out at $31.5, 2 days before, and was averaging at $17.6 that day, he advises not to sell but to buy and predicts it will go back up.

The price continued to fall for 5 months in a row to a low of $2 by November 18th 2011.

To my knowledge be remained bullish the whole way down.

And because he is well capitalized, he was able to buy all the way down.  Perhaps his "soon" is different from what you assumed "soon" to mean.  He's way up at these prices.

I don't think I am misrepresenting his 'soon'. I have followed cypherdoc his newsletter and soon means the coming weeks, not in 5 months after first correcting -80%.

I hope you are able to judge a call objectively, independent of your feelings for this person?


Let's say like cypherdoc I predict, but that the market will go down soon and say: "sell your coins to all those suckers. we are going down soon." The inverse happens, it goes up by 800% for 5 months in a row. I continue to predict it will go down though, also right on the high. Then it starts to go down but it takes 2 years to go below that price where I made the call, but indeed it goes much lower and my call becomes true.

There is a big difference between "don't sell" and "buy now".  Or, to use your example, you are suggesting "sell now" when he would have said "don't buy".

Proudly I bump the thread continuously where I called it will go down right at the top. Someone points out that was a great call indeed but the call earlier was wrong and I say: "hey I sold even more coins as it went up, and now 2 year later the price is indeed much lower as original". Even if this is right, it was still a poor call as it first went up by 800%.


I agree he is way up at current prices, just like anyone who bought in 2011.

Stick with it was the art though, and he definitely succeeded in that, and helped many others to stick with it, me included.

However, he does not teach any risk management, is silent about his wrong calls while very public about his right calls, gets defensive if you confront him about his wrong calls, and repeats his mistakes to continue to advise to buy even after parabolic epic rises. He did it in 2011, and again in 2013 as I prove in this thread.

Basically he is acting as a goldbug. Always bullish, always advising to buy, even when proven seriously wrong, not recognizing it, not taking responsibility and when confronted denying, minimising and ridiculing.  

This is a serious red flag. Very likely, if bitcoin fails, he fails and everyone who follows him. Be aware.

I agree he has a potential blind spot, but with most of the potential failure modes of BTC, we will all be caught by surprise.

[RationalSpeculator]

Are you really going to do this because of that petty spat in lucif's thread? This a dick move, and frankly, it's pathetic. This forum is awash with bad predictions..... and you're going to make a thread about Rampion? Really uncalled for.

[...]  I'd like to share my experience with others, and hope they will share theirs with me, so I can avoid people that are more wrong than right, and find the few diamonds in here.     [...]

Nice initiative.  And very interesting this thread. Obviously there will be people who will feel very hurt but we have a right to know these analyzes and the degree of successes.

Thanks a lot for your appreciation.

[RationalSpeculator]

the Forum has been inundated with trolls probably from the Street who are desperately trying to get their hands on bitcoin.  you can tell this by the pronouncements of doom and gloom from these people.  as the stock market plummets, these punks are looking for the next bull market to rotate into and its bitcoin.  but they need to get you to sell to them so don't let it happen.  we are going back up and soon.

Bad call by cypherdoc. On June 11th 2011 when price had just peaked out at $31.5, 2 days before, and was averaging at $17.6 that day, he advises not to sell but to buy and predicts it will go back up.

The price continued to fall for 5 months in a row to a low of $2 by November 18th 2011.

To my knowledge be remained bullish the whole way down.

And because he is well capitalized, he was able to buy all the way down.  Perhaps his "soon" is different from what you assumed "soon" to mean.  He's way up at these prices.

I don't think I am misrepresenting his 'soon'. I have followed cypherdoc his newsletter and soon means the coming weeks, not in 5 months after first correcting -80%.

I hope you are able to judge a call objectively, independent of your feelings for this person?


Let's say like cypherdoc I predict, but that the market will go down soon and say: "sell your coins to all those suckers. we are going down soon." The inverse happens, it goes up by 800% for 5 months in a row. I continue to predict it will go down though, also right on the high. Then it starts to go down but it takes 2 years to go below that price where I made the call, but indeed it goes much lower and my call becomes true.

There is a big difference between "don't sell" and "buy now".  Or, to use your example, you are suggesting "sell now" when he would have said "don't buy".

I'm sorry, you are right. He said 'don't sell' on the highs. He did not say 'buy now'.  

I stand corrected. Still a bad call though to advise to 'hold' and the market ends up crashing.

Thanks for your confirmation.