Old BFL buyers vs new asicminer prices

[bcp19]

While the numbers are exaggerated, a widget that costs a small amount compared to what it would bring in has already been created.  It's called an ASIC.  At the time pre-orders were taken, the smallest unit cost less than 30BTC, and if ONLY 1 was made and there was NO competition, it would have brought in more than 400BTC in 12 months.  Therein lies the rub... there will be competition and no one will make just one.

Thus everyone projected how much competition BFL would have between October of 2012 and January of 2013. The proejction was zero, they were the only vendor planning to ship. Then it was a simple matter of when you ordered your BFL product as to when you would get it.  Instead, BFL was 3rd (out of 3) to deliver. Both ASICMiner and Avalon batch 1 deployed first, thus reaping large rewards.

If we step into fantasy world though, we now have every unit capable of making such incredible returns... the ~4600 BTC for every mini-rig becomes 61,333.  The network increase since those preorders is now at over 600TH.  That's 400 minirigs.  That would mean 24,533,200 BTC would have been produced in a single year and if we went to Inaba's farcical numbers that would be well over 72million.  In less than 4 months at todays rate the entire BTC supply would have been exhausted.

No, most people here realize that mining is a zero sum game and that they are competing with all other miners. There are lots of noobs drawn in by the April bubble who probably can't find their ass with both hands. I am sure they have no idea about how mining works, but thankfully most of them are not on these forums.

THIS is the problem with your "I'd take the 400 BTC!" and the reason why the difficulty is so high today... since EVERYONE wanted the 400 BTC... no one can have it.

Only early adopters have a shot at it, thus all of BFL land went from the catbird seat to negative return. Once the hash rate reaches equilibrium, you cannot generate much more than the worth of the device. There are still some efficiencies to be found with over/under clocking etc.

Very true, they did assess the competition, but they failed to assess the quantity ordered.  Most of the people seem to think it'd be just like the B1 Avalons and they'd have had BTC raining down on them. 

[1714933310]

1714933310

[dentldir]

Purchase a widget that costs 10 BTC and will generate 400 BTC, valued at $2 each or
Purchase a widget that costs 10 BTC and will generate 5 BTC, valued at $200 each

Soooo....

Purchase a widget that costs $20 and will generate $800 or
Purchase a widget that costs $2000 and will generate $1000.

Really?

Signed,
An owner of both BFL and AM hardware

[bcp19]

Purchase a widget that costs 10 BTC and will generate 400 BTC, valued at $2 each or
Purchase a widget that costs 10 BTC and will generate 5 BTC, valued at $200 each

Soooo....

Purchase a widget that costs $20 and will generate $800 or
Purchase a widget that costs $2000 and will generate $1000.

Really?

Signed,
An owner of both BFL and AM hardware

No one said what the starting value of the BTC was... that 10BTC was the same for both comments, not 20 vs 2000.

[Askit2]

Purchase a widget that costs 10 BTC and will generate 400 BTC, valued at $2 each or
Purchase a widget that costs 10 BTC and will generate 5 BTC, valued at $200 each

Soooo....

Purchase a widget that costs $20 and will generate $800 or
Purchase a widget that costs $2000 and will generate $1000.

Really?

Signed,
An owner of both BFL and AM hardware

No one said what the starting value of the BTC was... that 10BTC was the same for both comments, not 20 vs 2000.

Maybe the assumption was that they instead held the bitcoins and would have had whatever 10BTC was at the final value?

[Bicknellski]

Has history just repeated itself?

Bitmain and Spondoolies Tech shipping off the shelf and BFL no Monarch to be seen anywhere. Look back and read the Inaba and BCP defense... sound familiar?

GUT PUNCH.

[Bicknellski]

I suppose it needs it's own thread as I suggested since it is quite valuable information about the current market vs. the past market purchases. That should play into your decision when making any NEW PURCHASES like the BFL Monarch... ergo this is maybe a good place to point out the failures of BFL delivery. Would it not? To protect people possibly making the wrong choice when purchasing? Or should we all ignore this analysis?

Haven't we analyzed this to death?  There are dozens of threads about this very topic.  Is it really necessary to ruin another thread with the same stuff we've been reading for months?  I personally want to hear what others have to say about the Monarch.  Nothing else.

Such as...?

Make an example

It is not even a prototype correct? No gerbers? No BOM even? Just a drawing... what more can you say about it? Other than taking specifications they claim it will have and doing an analysis and then determining whether or not it is a good buy correct?

Given what Death is saying in a comparison of the Asicminer Blades vs. 2012 BFL Products that have yet to ship... you might want to really rethink whether or not the Monarch has any value other than a thought experiment into a PCIe miner, seems to be hard to say anymore than that right? Forgive me but doesn't BFL have a forum for all this information. Why would anyone come here to get updated info on this product should you not go to the source?

Almost what now 9 months later and the Monarch is still a thought experiment.

[DoogieHouser]

I suppose it needs it's own thread as I suggested since it is quite valuable information about the current market vs. the past market purchases. That should play into your decision when making any NEW PURCHASES like the BFL Monarch... ergo this is maybe a good place to point out the failures of BFL delivery. Would it not? To protect people possibly making the wrong choice when purchasing? Or should we all ignore this analysis?

Haven't we analyzed this to death?  There are dozens of threads about this very topic.  Is it really necessary to ruin another thread with the same stuff we've been reading for months?  I personally want to hear what others have to say about the Monarch.  Nothing else.

Such as...?

Make an example

It is not even a prototype correct? No gerbers? No BOM even? Just a drawing... what more can you say about it? Other than taking specifications they claim it will have and doing an analysis and then determining whether or not it is a good buy correct?

Given what Death is saying in a comparison of the Asicminer Blades vs. 2012 BFL Products that have yet to ship... you might want to really rethink whether or not the Monarch has any value other than a thought experiment into a PCIe miner, seems to be hard to say anymore than that right? Forgive me but doesn't BFL have a forum for all this information. Why would anyone come here to get updated info on this product should you not go to the source?

Almost what now 9 months later and the Monarch is still a thought experiment.

Mmm... As I recall, they were supposed to ship in December. They were taking pre-orders in August or September--right around the same time I ordered by BabyJet from HashFast.

After waiting 11 months for my BFL ASICs, I will never buy from BFL, again.

[opieum2]

I suppose it needs it's own thread as I suggested since it is quite valuable information about the current market vs. the past market purchases. That should play into your decision when making any NEW PURCHASES like the BFL Monarch... ergo this is maybe a good place to point out the failures of BFL delivery. Would it not? To protect people possibly making the wrong choice when purchasing? Or should we all ignore this analysis?

Haven't we analyzed this to death?  There are dozens of threads about this very topic.  Is it really necessary to ruin another thread with the same stuff we've been reading for months?  I personally want to hear what others have to say about the Monarch.  Nothing else.

Such as...?

Make an example

It is not even a prototype correct? No gerbers? No BOM even? Just a drawing... what more can you say about it? Other than taking specifications they claim it will have and doing an analysis and then determining whether or not it is a good buy correct?

Given what Death is saying in a comparison of the Asicminer Blades vs. 2012 BFL Products that have yet to ship... you might want to really rethink whether or not the Monarch has any value other than a thought experiment into a PCIe miner, seems to be hard to say anymore than that right? Forgive me but doesn't BFL have a forum for all this information. Why would anyone come here to get updated info on this product should you not go to the source?

Almost what now 9 months later and the Monarch is still a thought experiment.

Mmm... As I recall, they were supposed to ship in December. They were taking pre-orders in August or September--right around the same time I ordered by BabyJet from HashFast.

After waiting 11 months for my BFL ASICs, I will never buy from BFL, again.

They were supposed to ship every month since December but basically and more likely mined with the hardware and is sitting on it. Owning a pool of their own allows them to pull that off to some degree.

[DoogieHouser]

I suppose it needs it's own thread as I suggested since it is quite valuable information about the current market vs. the past market purchases. That should play into your decision when making any NEW PURCHASES like the BFL Monarch... ergo this is maybe a good place to point out the failures of BFL delivery. Would it not? To protect people possibly making the wrong choice when purchasing? Or should we all ignore this analysis?

Haven't we analyzed this to death?  There are dozens of threads about this very topic.  Is it really necessary to ruin another thread with the same stuff we've been reading for months?  I personally want to hear what others have to say about the Monarch.  Nothing else.

Such as...?

Make an example

It is not even a prototype correct? No gerbers? No BOM even? Just a drawing... what more can you say about it? Other than taking specifications they claim it will have and doing an analysis and then determining whether or not it is a good buy correct?

Given what Death is saying in a comparison of the Asicminer Blades vs. 2012 BFL Products that have yet to ship... you might want to really rethink whether or not the Monarch has any value other than a thought experiment into a PCIe miner, seems to be hard to say anymore than that right? Forgive me but doesn't BFL have a forum for all this information. Why would anyone come here to get updated info on this product should you not go to the source?

Almost what now 9 months later and the Monarch is still a thought experiment.

Mmm... As I recall, they were supposed to ship in December. They were taking pre-orders in August or September--right around the same time I ordered by BabyJet from HashFast.

After waiting 11 months for my BFL ASICs, I will never buy from BFL, again.

They were supposed to ship every month since December but basically and more likely mined with the hardware and is sitting on it. Owning a pool of their own allows them to pull that off to some degree.

Umm, which pool? The last time I checked (September) their mining software worked with Eclipse and Eligius pools. Has that changed?

[dropt]

Umm, which pool? The last time I checked (September) their mining software worked with Eclipse and Eligius pools. Has that changed?

BFL purchased Eclipse from Josh quite some time ago.

[DoogieHouser]

Umm, which pool? The last time I checked (September) their mining software worked with Eclipse and Eligius pools. Has that changed?

BFL purchased Eclipse from Josh quite some time ago.

Oh, okay. I tried that pool with EasyMiner when I got my first 60 GH/s ASIC. Eclipse throttled it at 7 GH/s.

Too funny.