Bitcoin growth - The Long View

[enmaku]

We're all early adopters until you can walk on the street, ask ten people what they think of bitcoin, and get more than three to give you a cogent answer.

I've heard it said that people tend to fall into normally distributed curves, with the early adopters being in the lower 15.8% (1 standard deviation below median or more), the majority who wait for the tech to be proven within the +/- 1 standard deviation "majority" portion of the curve and the upper 15.8% being the die-hards who are just now getting on the internet (+2 standard deviations would be the 2% or so who still use rotary phones).

So in short, the real tipping point is when you can interview 100 people on the internet (people on the street aren't guaranteed to be part of the 2.1 billion internet users out of 6.8 billion overall people) and 16 of them (or more) will say they use bitcoin.

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[TraderTimm]

Hey Piper67,

I'm flattered at commanding your attention! Isn't it a bit embarrasing for you to see that the company you keep is too stupid to even realize that you were taking a (weak) poke at me?

I see you forgot I admitted my mistake, something that I don't suspect we'll ever see from you. But take care to gloat and laugh, because we know only good things come from that behavior.

Or you could be posting coherently about the topic at hand like a reasonable being.

[jjiimm_64]

...
Warning - while you were reading 7 new replies have been posted. You may wish to review your post.

fast post.

just my 2 bitcents. 

the mainstream joe might not ever use bitcoins, but the mainstream joe has never bought or sold anything using gold either.

My point is that bitcoin might end up as just a 'store of value' like gold is, but with the advantage over gold of

1.  you can never get any more bitcoins then the 21Million avail by 2021 ( you can always digup more gold)
2.  you can transfer the value across a network  (try doing that with gold unless selling futures.)

[Shinobi]

Hey Shinobi, there's a difference between being mildly amusing and commanding my attention... I doubt you could command a jet of pee into the toilet bowl. As for my poke being weak, I get that it would be to someone who doesn't know anything about paradigm shifts, basic economics, monetary policy or international politics.

You truly are the tail thinking it's wagging the dog, kid.

I am? I guess only time will tell. I do, however, want to know why you keep repeating "paradigm shifts, basic economics, monetary policy or international politics" as if you are cutting and pasting it?  I do something about all these topics in varying strength, and enough to have a good sense of where Bitcoin is headed.

[Piper67]

Hey Shinobi, there's a difference between being mildly amusing and commanding my attention... I doubt you could command a jet of pee into the toilet bowl. As for my poke being weak, I get that it would be to someone who doesn't know anything about paradigm shifts, basic economics, monetary policy or international politics.

You truly are the tail thinking it's wagging the dog, kid.

I am? I guess only time will tell. I do, however, want to know why you keep repeating "paradigm shifts, basic economics, monetary policy or international politics" as if you are cutting and pasting it?  I do something about all these topics in varying strength, and enough to have a good sense of where Bitcoin is headed.

For emphasis, Shinobi, something you'll learn about in high school.

[Shinobi]

Really? I didn't read Kuhn till college. Maybe I was a late bloomer. 

[DonnyCMU]

The chart on number of nodes are very indicative.. However, you should take into account of another trend: web-based wallet.

I rarely open my wallets now. Most of my coins are in Mt.Gox/Tradehill. If I need to send coins, I send it from there.

Why?
Because every time I open my wallet.....  I have to wait 0.5-1 hour for the blocks to catch up!!!  

Until we can get a thin client, this can be somewhat preventive to adoptions (I remember when I install the client on a new PC I have to wait 4 hours before I can send/receive any coins. Imagine how a new user would feel.), and it'll push the trends toward web-based wallets more.

[TraderTimm]

The chart on number of nodes are very indicative.. However, you should take into account of another trend: web-based wallet.

I rarely open my wallets now. Most of my coins are in Mt.Gox/Tradehill. If I need to send coins, I send it from there.

Why?
Because every time I open my wallet.....  I have to wait 0.5-1 hour for the blocks to catch up!!!  

Until we can get a thin client, this can be somewhat preventive to adoptions (I remember when I install the client on a new PC I have to wait 4 hours before I can send/receive any coins. Imagine how a new user would feel.), and it'll push the trends toward web-based wallets more.

Good point. You are right that there will be refinements to how people manage their wallets and coins. The numbers in my article don't take that into account. All we can do is make educated guesses, until other methods of measuring exist.

[imperi]

I only send coins from my Linux server, and the wallets are always open.

[smoothie]

Here is a graph of the the price of WonderBread. I'm sure it has something to do with the price of bitcoin, I just don't know what.

that my friend is called INFLATION. LOL

[smoothie]

Here is another chart about something. I'm not sure what it's about, but it looks just like the rest, so I figured it might just fit in well:

  MEGA LAWL    MEGA LAWL    MEGA LAWL    MEGA LAWL    MEGA LAWL    MEGA LAWL    MEGA LAWL    MEGA LAWL    MEGA LAWL    MEGA LAWL    MEGA LAWL    MEGA LAWL    MEGA LAWL    MEGA LAWL    MEGA LAWL    MEGA LAWL    MEGA LAWL    MEGA LAWL    MEGA LAWL    MEGA LAWL    MEGA LAWL    MEGA LAWL    MEGA LAWL    MEGA LAWL    MEGA LAWL    MEGA LAWL    MEGA LAWL    MEGA LAWL    MEGA LAWL    MEGA LAWL    MEGA LAWL    MEGA LAWL    MEGA LAWL    MEGA LAWL    MEGA LAWL    MEGA LAWL    MEGA LAWL    MEGA LAWL    MEGA LAWL    MEGA LAWL    MEGA LAWL    MEGA LAWL 

[Elwar]

A true BitCoin chart will look like a complete circle.

 

[TraderTimm]

  MEGA LAWL   

(snip, ad infinitum)

You're right, the proportion of emoticons to useful content does indicate underlying intelligence. Good call!

[CurbsideProphet]

One of the barometers that I'm using is to try and sell goods here on the forum.  Afterall, everyone here understands Bitcoin so if I can't sell here, then the rest of the world surely isn't ready yet.  So far my result has been less than impressive.  No minimum bid, 80+ views, no offers.  I know my goods have value because I have a locked in price from Amazon as to what they would be willing to give me for my item.

Obviously one item isn't enough to make any sort of conclusion, but I think as I put more items up for bid, it will give me a better sense of if this Bitcoin truly is just for speculators or a viable medium of exchange.

The stories of so and so bought a car or house with Bitcoin is irrelevant to me.  A guy bartered a red paper clip into a house.  Doesn't mean I should go out and buy red paper clips.  Anyway, that's one of the current metrics I'm using for my personal bullish/bearish long-term outlook on BTC.

[AtlasONo]

Oh and this didn't get moved to speculation? 

[wareen]

One of the barometers that I'm using is to try and sell goods here on the forum.  Afterall, everyone here understands Bitcoin so if I can't sell here, then the rest of the world surely isn't ready yet.

IMHO the forum is an awful place for buying and selling goods - I spend Bitcoins nearly every day but I have not looked here in the respective forum-sections for a long time. It is just not the right interface for finding stuff. Also the audience at amazon.com is orders of magnitudes larger than in our forums here - add one additional order of magnitude for everybody who, like me, simply doesn't bother to wade through tons of forum posts in order to find something they want to buy. So you would really have to offer a _lot_ here to be able to compare it to Amazon. Anyway - you could probably deduce something useful from the total number of successful trades here on the forum. Anybody has statistics about that?

The Bitcoin economy is still young - good trading sites are rare and we don't have anything close to Amazon.com in terms of usability. Give it some time - it will develop. People are spending their coins, even though many just don't really know how to deal with this new things just yet. Eventually it will be just money to them and they will spend it accordingly.

Don't worry - everything's gonna be alright

Oh and I agree: this thread has probably turned into a worthy candidate for the Speculation section. Apologies to the OP for this obviously unintended development.

[smoothie]

One of the barometers that I'm using is to try and sell goods here on the forum.  Afterall, everyone here understands Bitcoin so if I can't sell here, then the rest of the world surely isn't ready yet.  So far my result has been less than impressive.  No minimum bid, 80+ views, no offers.  I know my goods have value because I have a locked in price from Amazon as to what they would be willing to give me for my item.

Obviously one item isn't enough to make any sort of conclusion, but I think as I put more items up for bid, it will give me a better sense of if this Bitcoin truly is just for speculators or a viable medium of exchange.

The stories of so and so bought a car or house with Bitcoin is irrelevant to me.  A guy bartered a red paper clip into a house.  Doesn't mean I should go out and buy red paper clips.  Anyway, that's one of the current metrics I'm using for my personal bullish/bearish long-term outlook on BTC.

Come back to make comments on this analysis of yours in a year. Then you can say you've really tried and took the time to see what this market will become.

[Synaptic]

LOL,

How the fuck was this thread left on the main page but my MIRROR thread with the reverse opinion is shoved into the speculation sub-forum?

LOL,

Man, this site's heavy handed bias becomes so so sweetly evident.

Suppress dissent. Drive the market.

RALLY! RALLY! RALLY!

[error]

LOL,

How the fuck was this thread left on the main page but my MIRROR thread with the reverse opinion is shoved into the speculation sub-forum?

LOL,

Man, this site's heavy handed bias becomes so so sweetly evident.

Suppress dissent. Drive the market.

RALLY! RALLY! RALLY!

Probably because nobody reported this thread as needing to be moved.

[Synaptic]

LOL,

How the fuck was this thread left on the main page but my MIRROR thread with the reverse opinion is shoved into the speculation sub-forum?

LOL,

Man, this site's heavy handed bias becomes so so sweetly evident.

Suppress dissent. Drive the market.

RALLY! RALLY! RALLY!

Probably because nobody reported this thread as needing to be moved.

Heh, good point. Reported.