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Author Topic: Bitcoin Shrinking - The Long View  (Read 17720 times)
Synaptic
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July 15, 2011, 08:19:53 PM
 #181

Neither of those things are about to happen. Not in a month, not in two, not in 6.  There's nothing on the horizon for bitcoin, and that's what this thread was started for. The mining boom is over. Silk Road is out of the bag. We had a huge scandal that met the ADHD attention span of the mainstream media. It's done for the long term.
We have a lot of patience though. I don't care if it takes 5, 10 years to adopt bitcoin on larger scale. There isn't any hurry. Look how Linux started, or any other open source project.

And well, I find that admirable.  I think if you're really behind something like this you should be in it as a life goal. I have no gripes against you for that at all.

Unfortunately there's a lot of kids here who are wasting their time and money gambling on something that's patently incompatible with modern society and culture. Not only that, but the very fundamental infrastructure and programming of bitcoin "1.0" is absurd and poorly thought out.

In fact I belive in an eventual viable crypto-currency, WITH global adoption.  I'm actually a supporter of a One World Government (I actually believe we already have one by defacto standards of operation) and obviously there will need to be an currency that transcends geography.

Bitcoin 1.0 isn't it though, and I feel it's useless to continue wasting kids time with it.

Though it sure is cool as hell to pay off a bit of your gaming rig with it, I'll agree. Smiley
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July 15, 2011, 08:38:37 PM
 #182

Here's the fact of the matter:

Before I go on, I'd just like to say that I generally agree with you in the short run. In the long run, nobody knows.

Quote
+ Bitcoin just enjoyed more media exposure over the past 3 months than can reasonably be expected to occur anywhere in the near future. There's just nothing newsworthy forthcoming unless there is something scandalous that happens again, and we're just about out of interesting scandals. We've made the rounds from illegal purchasing to hacking to market failures.
  There's just nothing left to get the attention of corporate media. The fact is that no-one cares about bitcoin as a medium of exchange, except a small core constituency of idealists here on these forums. It HAD newsworthy spectacle value as prices skyrocketed and people "got rich quick," but those times are over.  There is nothing left of newsworthy value.

I'm not sure these are "facts". I stumbled upon bitcoin while google/wiki surfing and didn't know anything about these scandals. There are probably others like me who will find out and get interested. So to say that "no-one" would care about bitcoin because it isn't newsworthy and/orwithout these scandals would not be factual, even if I'm the only one Smiley

Secondly, your claim of 3 months of media exposure doesn't seem quite right. Checking up on these scandals, indicate that the first (Silkroad) only started in late Jun so it's only one month of real media exposure. Unless you mean some other scandals apart from the 3 you specified?

Thirdly, claiming there's "nothing left" to get attention of the corporate media is indulging in crystal-ball gazing isn't it? Who knows if next week some celebrity stumble would upon this (maybe while trying to get a discreet drug fix) and decides to hype it up to his/her 100,000 twitter followers and  200,000 facebook fans? Wink

So fact of the matter is that your "facts" aren't that factual as well.

Quote
+ The price run-up happened SOLELY on hype alone. There's not much analysis that needs to be done here. It was clearly a bubble that started with the Silk Road coverage, inflated with the mining craze, and ended with the Gox scandal. That's it folks. Bitcoin jumped the shark 3 weeks ago.

This I would agree fully excerpt the jump the shark part since I'm not sure what you mean by that, sorry, I'm not American/British.
However, looking before Jun, I'd say there was already a slow crawl upwards in price, the current downtrend seems to be simply market correction and likely to settle somewhat higher than before in the next couple of months if I may dare to speculate, around the $9~$12 range perhaps.

Quote
+ The current "stability" is no such thing. There is no stability when there's no backing economy.  The only "stability" we're seeing is roughly the same sub 10-15,000 (could be exceedingly lower, and possibly a bit higher though doubtfully) "investors" propping up the price and using trading bots to maintain the appearance of a functioning market and "stability."
  The fact is that the market has been on a slow and steady DECLINE ever since Gox came back online. This is because there is no new blood entering the market, just the same old speculators throwing more of their paychecks into it; BUT, not enough to grow the market. That's why were seeing a steady loss of a few cents of USD value everyday. And this will continue for the long haul.

I'd disagree since there is no data to prove that there are less real humans investing into the system. While forum registrations is not a hard metric, it does serve as an indication that more newcomers are getting into this.

For the decline part, as I mentioned earlier, for the time being, it can only be described as a correction. In the long term, nobody knows. If you could predict markets with such certainty, then you would be making bilions elsewhere, not wasting time here Wink


Quote
+ Echoing the same dilemma of 3 months ago when bitcoin began catching on with speculators, "Where is the bitcoin economy."  Well folks, this is it. The list of bitcoin merchants hasn't grown at all, and in fact if you browse the Trade section of bitcoin.org itself, and explore some of the merchants there you'll find that some of them have removed their bitcoin advertisements and no longer APPEAR to accept it. I encourage you to peruse them and see for yourself, because during that excercise you'll also see that basically all businesses listed are extremely small time, mom and pop shop operations, and most of them quite amateur at that.  That is your bitcoin economy. That is what you have to work with now, and for any reasonable foreseeable future.

I've not checked out every single listing but I would agree that this economy is key to the long term viability of Bitcoin. However for any market to thrive, there must be enough users. So the more people who get Bitcoins and ironically maybe the lower the dollar value, the more likely an economy will bloom since people would want to be able to use their existing bitcoin in exchange for something. Once the volume of trade starts to grow internally, things should start to snowball at accelerating rate.

There are many smart people thinking of things that could be bought for bitcoins so I wouldn't be so sure that none of the come up with a killer idea that will help propel the bitcoin economy into long term sustainability.


Quote
This is not a thread about the speculation of bitcoin's future, these are the facts.

As shown, not all of what you claim are facts and ultimately facts are also subjected to interpretation Smiley

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July 15, 2011, 08:45:14 PM
 #183

The "kids" who "wasted" their time and money in '09, '10, and early 11 with this could now buy an entire data center with the proceeds.  The exact same arguments were made then, are made now and I guarantee you will be made until bitcoin either becomes mainstream or disappears.  Check back in a year to see which is more likely.  At some point those arguments could all be right, or they will all be proven wrong.  IMO there's no reason to believe the point is now.

Developing a $ to BTC exchange and mining pools also seemed like a dumb waste of effort at the time.  And look at the income they're generating today.

Those being negative then have nothing to show for their efforts.  The ones taking risks and initiative, however, are pretty well off.
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July 15, 2011, 08:49:28 PM
 #184

I see this thread has been moved to Speculation. It should have been moved to Facts  Cheesy
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July 15, 2011, 08:56:06 PM
 #185

The "kids" who "wasted" their time and money in '09, '10, and early 11 with this could now buy an entire data center with the proceeds.  The exact same arguments were made then, are made now and I guarantee you will be made until bitcoin either becomes mainstream or disappears.  Check back in a year to see which is more likely.  At some point those arguments could all be right, or they will all be proven wrong.  IMO there's no reason to believe the point is now.

Developing a $ to BTC exchange and mining pools also seemed like a dumb waste of effort at the time.  And look at the income they're generating today.

Those being negative then have nothing to show for their efforts.  The ones taking risks and initiative, however, are pretty well off.


Hypothetically well off, since in reality it's difficult to pull much value out of the system without totally crashing the entire market a la the Gox hacking which was only like what, 200k BTC that got sold, and crashed the whole fucking thing to $0.00? Not only that, but that's not 200k odd BTC that sold at the then $20 price-tag, no.  The lions share of that sell off was had at absurdly low values.  If I'm not mistaken I think more than half of it started being sold around $4-.01c.  So the argument that there is outrageous wealth in the bitcoin market is patently false.  At most they can hope the scheme keeps bringing in new blood so they can progressively cash out, just like all the miners do. But they certainly aren't going to be pawning off massive amounts of BTC and buying a new Porsche in a day, or even a week...or month, or year at these prices/market depth!

The reality is that yes, they are making a nice hefty RELATIVE profit on their original speculation, but so are the Amway founders and VitaLife and all the other founders/early adopters of other multi-level marketing schemes that very closely resemble what bitcoin exists as today.
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July 15, 2011, 08:56:45 PM
 #186

Even if new forum registrations could be used as some sort of correlation to Bitcoin's overall interest, you would need to also know the number of inactive accounts to draw any sort of conclusion.  We can only see the inflow but none of the outflow and it would be foolish to assume everyone who has joined this forum continues to be actively interested.

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July 15, 2011, 08:58:47 PM
 #187

Even if new forum registrations could be used as some sort of correlation to Bitcoin's overall interest, you would need to also know the number of inactive accounts to draw any sort of conclusion.  We can only see the inflow but none of the outflow and it would be foolish to assume everyone who has joined this forum continues to be actively interested.

What?  That's crazy talk son. Correlation == Causation. Always.

Bitcoin Forum accounts come in, Market Value soars to new heights.

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July 15, 2011, 09:46:53 PM
 #188

Even if new forum registrations could be used as some sort of correlation to Bitcoin's overall interest, you would need to also know the number of inactive accounts to draw any sort of conclusion.  We can only see the inflow but none of the outflow and it would be foolish to assume everyone who has joined this forum continues to be actively interested.

That is quite true, so either way there's appears still to be no conclusive data to indicate if the number of real human participants are increasing/stagnant/decreasing.

However, anecdotal evidence suggests increase. For a while I was quite puzzled by the surge of interest in used 5xxx series ATI cards in my local hardware forums. Then there were vendors telling me about odd buying patterns with people snatching up as many as 8~10 pieces of aging 5xxx inventory they never thought they could get rid of at decent pricing. This coincide with the Bitcoin media coverage since late Jun as well.

Now since the overall network hashrate is increasing, with no real significant breakthrough in hashing hardware for the past six months or so, it would seem to imply that the overall number of participants joining is greater than those leaving.

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July 15, 2011, 10:08:26 PM
 #189

Even if new forum registrations could be used as some sort of correlation to Bitcoin's overall interest, you would need to also know the number of inactive accounts to draw any sort of conclusion.  We can only see the inflow but none of the outflow and it would be foolish to assume everyone who has joined this forum continues to be actively interested.

That is quite true, so either way there's appears still to be no conclusive data to indicate if the number of real human participants are increasing/stagnant/decreasing.

However, anecdotal evidence suggests increase. For a while I was quite puzzled by the surge of interest in used 5xxx series ATI cards in my local hardware forums. Then there were vendors telling me about odd buying patterns with people snatching up as many as 8~10 pieces of aging 5xxx inventory they never thought they could get rid of at decent pricing. This coincide with the Bitcoin media coverage since late Jun as well.

Now since the overall network hashrate is increasing, with no real significant breakthrough in hashing hardware for the past six months or so, it would seem to imply that the overall number of participants joining is greater than those leaving.


Miners do not bring value to bitcoin.  In fact miners actually drive the price steadily downward without the influx of new money equaling current market price * 7200 per 24hrs. Since that is very unlikely to continue, we'll just see a steady bleeding of value as miners get desperate and keep selling off coins to cover costs and recoup investment, just as we're seeing. As I said, BTC has been on a slow burn decline ever since Gox opened back up.

Miners are into bitcoin to profit in USD, except the zealots/speculators who hoard, and they're neither hurting nor helping bitcoin.

Bottom line, miners mean jack shit to the value of bitcoin as a "currency" or even a speculative vehicle, since the amount of bitcoins introduced to the market daily remains the same.
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July 15, 2011, 10:17:18 PM
 #190

The long term trend for bitcoin value is contraction, not expansion.

Here's the fact of the matter:

+ Bitcoin just enjoyed more media exposure over the past 3 months than can reasonably be expected to occur anywhere in the near future. There's just nothing newsworthy forthcoming unless there is something scandalous that happens again, and we're just about out of interesting scandals. We've made the rounds from illegal purchasing to hacking to market failures.
  There's just nothing left to get the attention of corporate media. The fact is that no-one cares about bitcoin as a medium of exchange, except a small core constituency of idealists here on these forums. It HAD newsworthy spectacle value as prices skyrocketed and people "got rich quick," but those times are over.  There is nothing left of newsworthy value.

It's true that Bitcoin was suddenly thrust into the media spotlight as a result of several co-ordinated blog posts. It is also true that a lot of speculators charged in and bought up bitcoins through exchanges as a way of making a quick buck. Prices went through the roof as a consequence and the story of that bubble sparked more media coverage in either a virtuous or vicious circle depending on your point of view. Virtuous if you wanted a quick buck, vicious if you were hoping to get more of the economic infrastructure (like EPOS, instant transactions etc) in place before it went mainstream.

The media will grab anything and everything that will help it draw attention to itself. There are a multitude of ways that bitcoin will be able make news in the future as others earlier in this topic have shown. This news could be good "Synaptic becomes first Bitcoin Billionaire - buys island in 10 minutes". Or it could be bad, see previous headline  Wink


+ The price run-up happened SOLELY on hype alone. There's not much analysis that needs to be done here. It was clearly a bubble that started with the Silk Road coverage, inflated with the mining crazy, and ended with the Gox scandal. That's it folks. Bitcoin jumped the shark 3 weeks ago.

I disagree with this viewpoint. I think that Bitcoin has gone through a taste of mainstream attention and the services built on it were caught entirely by surprise. The fundamental operation of the currency was utterly unfazed. Lessons have been learned, and further developments are incorporating those insights. However, it takes time to develop new and improved code and so this is a quiet time for Bitcoin while more solid infrastructure is built.

+ The current "stability" is no such thing. There is no stability when there's no backing economy.  The only "stability" we're seeing is roughly the same sub 10-15,000 (could be exceedingly lower, and possibly a bit higher though doubtfully) "investors" propping up the price and using trading bots to maintain the appearance of a functioning market and "stability."
  The fact is that the market has been on a slow and steady DECLINE ever since Gox came back online. This is because there is no new blood entering the market, just the same old speculators throwing more of their paychecks into it; BUT, not enough to grow the market. That's why were seeing a steady loss of a few cents of USD value everyday. And this will continue for the long haul.

Here you have made a very interesting observation. In my experience Bitcoin is currently seen as a currency speculation or medium term investment vehicle (3-5 years). What is desperately needed by the economy is for more people to spend their bitcoins on goods and services just like they do with other currencies. But this flies in the face of why many people bought them in the first place: to sit on them for the long term and reap the reward. Unfortunately, the Bitcoin economy will not grow with this attitude unless first time buyers continuously arrive and purchase bitcoins. In order to reap that reward a fraction of the money investors have set aside to buy BTCs must be spent on stuff that those investors need on a regular basis. So instead of buying a new set of headphones with local currency, Bitcoin investors should attempt to seek out a vendor willing to sell them in bitcoins. The price should be about the same and the overall economy will grow just a little bit leading to an increased in the relative value of your earliest position.

+ Echoing the same dilemma of 3 months ago when bitcoin began catching on with speculators, "Where is the bitcoin economy."  Well folks, this is it. The list of bitcoin merchants hasn't grown at all, and in fact if you browse the Trade section of bitcoin.org itself, and explore some of the merchants there you'll find that some of them have removed their bitcoin advertisements and no longer APPEAR to accept it. I encourage you to peruse them and see for yourself, because during that excercise you'll also see that basically all businesses listed are extremely small time, mom and pop shop operations, and most of them quite amateur at that.  That is your bitcoin economy. That is what you have to work with now, and for any reasonable foreseeable future.

I agree that Amazon has not embraced Bitcoin just yet. Microsoft are a little slow to the table here, and perhaps Apple could have made more of an effort. However other large organisations are taking an interest, particularly those dealing with large sums of paper cash. (It costs a lot to securely move cash to and from the bank every day). The benefits that Bitcoin can bring to large organisations are manyfold, and anything that reduces operating costs is generally seen as a good thing. But, no-one is going to start adopting Bitcoin without seeing solid proof that it works in the mainstream. And getting there is really, really hard.

This is not a thread about the speculation of bitcoin's future, these are the facts.

All discussion about the future is by definition speculation, unless it is based entirely in mathematics when it becomes a fact. Bitcoin is based entirely in mathematics.


Bitcoin enthusiast and Java programmer contributing to https://multibit.org and http://bitcoin.stackexchange.com
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July 15, 2011, 10:24:14 PM
 #191

And in other news, flat trading on the BTC Exchanges has led to rife trolling and infighting on the interwebs. One trader is said to have assaulted another upon hearing something about his mother's head going in unison with past volatility. The resulting brawl on to the street led to excessive intercourse between the parties with onlookers recoiling in horror. The local police would have intervened but no-one it seems was willing to fund the contract to so due to the local economy focus on mining.....
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July 15, 2011, 11:26:20 PM
 #192

Exactly.

Even if new forum registrations could be used as some sort of correlation to Bitcoin's overall interest, you would need to also know the number of inactive accounts to draw any sort of conclusion.  We can only see the inflow but none of the outflow and it would be foolish to assume everyone who has joined this forum continues to be actively interested.

That is quite true, so either way there's appears still to be no conclusive data to indicate if the number of real human participants are increasing/stagnant/decreasing.

However, anecdotal evidence suggests increase. For a while I was quite puzzled by the surge of interest in used 5xxx series ATI cards in my local hardware forums. Then there were vendors telling me about odd buying patterns with people snatching up as many as 8~10 pieces of aging 5xxx inventory they never thought they could get rid of at decent pricing. This coincide with the Bitcoin media coverage since late Jun as well.

Now since the overall network hashrate is increasing, with no real significant breakthrough in hashing hardware for the past six months or so, it would seem to imply that the overall number of participants joining is greater than those leaving.


Miners do not bring value to bitcoin.  In fact miners actually drive the price steadily downward without the influx of new money equaling current market price * 7200 per 24hrs. Since that is very unlikely to continue, we'll just see a steady bleeding of value as miners get desperate and keep selling off coins to cover costs and recoup investment, just as we're seeing. As I said, BTC has been on a slow burn decline ever since Gox opened back up.

Miners are into bitcoin to profit in USD, except the zealots/speculators who hoard, and they're neither hurting nor helping bitcoin.

Bottom line, miners mean jack shit to the value of bitcoin as a "currency" or even a speculative vehicle, since the amount of bitcoins introduced to the market daily remains the same.

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July 15, 2011, 11:44:43 PM
 #193

Miners do not bring value to bitcoin.  In fact miners actually drive the price steadily downward without the influx of new money equaling current market price * 7200 per 24hrs. Since that is very unlikely to continue, we'll just see a steady bleeding of value as miners get desperate and keep selling off coins to cover costs and recoup investment, just as we're seeing. As I said, BTC has been on a slow burn decline ever since Gox opened back up.

Miners are into bitcoin to profit in USD, except the zealots/speculators who hoard, and they're neither hurting nor helping bitcoin.

Bottom line, miners mean jack shit to the value of bitcoin as a "currency" or even a speculative vehicle, since the amount of bitcoins introduced to the market daily remains the same.

It really depends on your POV, classic cup half empty or half full kind of thing. Your assumption is that nothing is going to change so yes, in that situation what you describe could happen.

While I agree it is a likely scenario, it also means ignoring the fact there are people, even as you mentioned some working on a Bitcoin ATM and such, trying to change the landscape and therefore the market. Once somebody puts something out there that is sufficiently attractive paid for by Bitcoins, the economy could get kickstarted properly. For example in your proposed scenario when the value has gone down that miners start selling off to recoup, they may end up spending it within the economy for things that are worth more than the cash they would get, especially after taking into account the charges in getting cash transferred back. In many cases, it just takes that one single change to tip the scales and make what looks like a dog become a star.

Furthermore miners who have no intention of spending originally, may be educated and convinced that by spending some of their hoard in the bitcoin market, they are only helping to drive up the value of their hoard.

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July 15, 2011, 11:57:49 PM
 #194

Miners do not bring value to bitcoin.  In fact miners actually drive the price steadily downward without the influx of new money equaling current market price * 7200 per 24hrs. Since that is very unlikely to continue, we'll just see a steady bleeding of value as miners get desperate and keep selling off coins to cover costs and recoup investment, just as we're seeing. As I said, BTC has been on a slow burn decline ever since Gox opened back up.

Miners are into bitcoin to profit in USD, except the zealots/speculators who hoard, and they're neither hurting nor helping bitcoin.

Bottom line, miners mean jack shit to the value of bitcoin as a "currency" or even a speculative vehicle, since the amount of bitcoins introduced to the market daily remains the same.

It really depends on your POV, classic cup half empty or half full kind of thing. Your assumption is that nothing is going to change so yes, in that situation what you describe could happen.

While I agree it is a likely scenario, it also means ignoring the fact there are people, even as you mentioned some working on a Bitcoin ATM and such, trying to change the landscape and therefore the market. Once somebody puts something out there that is sufficiently attractive paid for by Bitcoins, the economy could get kickstarted properly. For example in your proposed scenario when the value has gone down that miners start selling off to recoup, they may end up spending it within the economy for things that are worth more than the cash they would get, especially after taking into account the charges in getting cash transferred back. In many cases, it just takes that one single change to tip the scales and make what looks like a dog become a star.

Furthermore miners who have no intention of spending originally, may be educated and convinced that by spending some of their hoard in the bitcoin market, they are only helping to drive up the value of their hoard.


Again, no bitcoin economy is coming because bitcoin serves no purpose that other services haven't already filled.

Bitcoin makes a cheap payment processor?  So does Dwolla, and there's 75% less bullshit involved.

Bitcoin is a hedge against inflation? No-one gives a shit. There's better stores of value in real tangible assets, like gold.

Bitcoin is secure/anonymous whatever other super-fantastic crypto-bullcrap? Again, no-one in the public gives a shit. There's zero value proposition relative to anything bitcoin is built on.

There's just simply no place in the real people's economy for this little hobby experiment.
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July 16, 2011, 03:27:26 AM
 #195


In the first paragraph, you use the word newsworthy three times... that's bad English.

In the second paragraph, you use the words SOLELY and alone within the same sentence, a redundancy... also bad English.

In the third paragraph, you use doubtfully when it should've been "doubtful"

In the fourth paragraph, the words reasonable foreseeable future make very little sense.

Your last sentence is flat-out wrong, as you are clearly speculating on the future of bitcoin... whether the paragraphs above contain facts is entirely beside the point.

If you don't mind, I will take my education from someone whose language skills are slightly more polished.

Cheers,

Shhhh its a coded message. jk

if a person is not good at english (even if it is their first language) Doesn't mean they don't have useful information.  I'm not saying this post is accurate.

No one can know where the bitcoin market will go, I expect it will keep with the pattern pointed out somewhere, and spike again in a month or so.

Set up the same thing..
http://bit.ly/btcrefs
Get more bitcoins.
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July 16, 2011, 03:36:03 AM
 #196


Shhhh its a coded message. jk

if a person is not good at english (even if it is their first language) Doesn't mean they don't have useful information.  I'm not saying this post is accurate.

No one can know where the bitcoin market will go, I expect it will keep with the pattern pointed out somewhere, and spike again in a month or so.

Oh, of course someone can have something of value to say even if they aren't all that articulate, or even knowledgable. In this case, though, his/her information is useless (really, it's an opinion, not information in the strict sense), and my answer was to his/her suggestion that he/she was in any way capable of educating me or anyone else on this forum.

And, for the record, English is my second language - or at least my other language.

Cheers
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July 16, 2011, 03:43:16 AM
 #197


Shhhh its a coded message. jk

if a person is not good at english (even if it is their first language) Doesn't mean they don't have useful information.  I'm not saying this post is accurate.

No one can know where the bitcoin market will go, I expect it will keep with the pattern pointed out somewhere, and spike again in a month or so.

Oh, of course someone can have something of value to say even if they aren't all that articulate, or even knowledgable. In this case, though, his/her information is useless (really, it's an opinion, not information in the strict sense), and my answer was to his/her suggestion that he/she was in any way capable of educating me or anyone else on this forum.

And, for the record, English is my second language - or at least my other language.

Cheers

Is that why you take every opportunity to be the resident spell/grammar checker?

There are more useful pursuits, hombre.
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July 16, 2011, 03:50:48 AM
 #198

These are two statement from the same post...  

The long term trend for bitcoin value is contraction, not expansion.



This is not a thread about the speculation of bitcoin's future, these are the facts.





my question:  Aren't these two statements mutually exclusive?

edit:  after rereading my post..  I should have said:  Aren't these two statements contradictory?

Yes he seems to make a point but then contradict it later on in his own statement.

Not at all.

I offered ample evidence that can easily be verified by hard sources and simple logical reasoning to back up my thesis.

Therefore, no contradiction.  Facts follow formula, and I provided the requisite references.

Dude you nor anyone else can predict the future with 100%accuracy. Thus your claim although you cited sources is still S Smiley P Wink E Cheesy C Grin U Angry L Sad A Shocked T Cool I Tongue O Kiss N.

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Synaptic
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July 16, 2011, 04:03:13 AM
 #199

These are two statement from the same post...  

The long term trend for bitcoin value is contraction, not expansion.



This is not a thread about the speculation of bitcoin's future, these are the facts.





my question:  Aren't these two statements mutually exclusive?

edit:  after rereading my post..  I should have said:  Aren't these two statements contradictory?

Yes he seems to make a point but then contradict it later on in his own statement.

Not at all.

I offered ample evidence that can easily be verified by hard sources and simple logical reasoning to back up my thesis.

Therefore, no contradiction.  Facts follow formula, and I provided the requisite references.

Dude you nor anyone else can predict the future with 100%accuracy. Thus your claim although you cited sources is still S Smiley P Wink E Cheesy C Grin U Angry L Sad A Shocked T Cool I Tongue O Kiss N.

It's actually a well educated hypothesis; One that in all likely-hood will continue to bare out as I've laid forth. Look, even since I started posting BTC has lost 9.5% of it's 24hr value. There will of course be a bump, but then another gradual slow burn fall as has been happening ever since the Gox recovery.

The signs are there for anyone to see.  This market isn't really as volatile as the speculators would love it to be, at all.  At it's been predictable since the bubble began. It's really not a mystery to anyone that understands these basic truths.
Edward50
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July 16, 2011, 04:49:32 AM
 #200

Synaptic, great post, and you laid the facts out very nicely. There seems to be few on this forum who actually see the truth about what is going on with bitcoin.

The price just went into a huge bubble and is just deflating (or what you call bitcoin shrinking). There is really no reason why it should be vauled so much higher than it was just a few months back.

Anyway, my question to you is where do you see the price of bitcoin stabilizing at?


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