Videoblog & Technical Analysis for Bitcoin

[Lucano]

Lucano,
There seems to be resistance to go below 780/790 on BTC-E.

the supports seems strong enough to make the buyers take control and push the price up again.
Remember, we have a higher low in construction in the 3 day chart and daily in the daily chart.
if this two time frames work in the same way that will help the price towards major resistance.
 

[1714177517]

1714177517

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

Yesterday, the price manage to keep the patterns over $900.00. The price deny lower highs in two time frames (240/60 Minutes chart) and it went to $970.00 area which is where the next pivot is located.
For me that's a powerful sign that is showing coordination between daily and 3 days chart and if the momentum still the same for the rest of the week we might see a new rally any time soon with a powerful 3 day chart building a higher low towards $1242.00

The daily chart is building a new higher low with $943.00 as a price that can activate some of the buyers and market makers to create the domino effect toward $1.022.00 as the first target this morning. This new uptrend keeps helping the price and the 3 day chart to build a strong and powerful consolidation so a potential new higher low can come along and push the price towards $1.242.00 and go over that major resistance.

The 240 minutes chart show a price pushing the movement towards $970.00 which will be a check point for the entire new uptrend to conquer. The next higher low in this time frame can send the price towards $995.00 or it can build a new consolidation to help the 240 minutes chart to push the up trend towards the minor resistance $1023.00 which in my opinion is the main target today.

60 minutes chart is showing how strong the up trend is going and ideally a new higher low will help the bullish momentum to push the price above $1.000.00.

We stick to ur plan and we keep the hypothesis of new higher lows for daily and 3 day chart active and right now we just have to wait for the major time fram to finish it's consolidation and formation to push a new rally and why not set new historical high above $1242.00.

Here, the pre market analysis.

http://youtu.be/OPc6MsSB1rI

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

The activation of the new higher low in the daily chart is keeping the price penetrating the bottom tales of the next minor resistance and also still keeping the price above $935.00 which helps the major time frames such as 3 day chart to keep the posible higher low intact and a new entry for that major time fram pattern is at $973.20.

The 3 day chart and the daily chart are keeping the coordination towards a new possible rally that can create a domino effect and bring the volume back to the trading floors and push the price toward the minor resistance and eventually a visit to the historical highs $1242.00.

The 240 minutes chart shows the denial of a lower higher a new consolidation is happening as we speak. The SMA 10 / 20 they are changing behavior and it seem that those SMA are working on a positive new trend with a new higher low in construction right now and this pattern can help more and more to the major time frames intentions towards new positive patterns.

The 60 minutes chart could be the instigator of a new rally in the next few hours. I'm saying this because in the event that the price reaches $973.20 in this time frame that will activate the 3 day higher low and it will turn the heads of the market makers towards that 3 day pattern and the volume could appear one more time and a new up trend will be in place.

The hypothesis of corrections could be possible but, only if the price manage to reach $930.00 and the $915.00 area in the 60 minutes chart.
However, this to ares are important becuase in the event that the price goes to $915.00 it might decided to build a new lower high and when the price goes up to build the pivot that's when the buyer will psuh the price toward $938.00 once again and the price will go back up again towards the SMA 200 and it will use the SMA to hold itself from it and the consolidation will back on the table one more time.

Here is the pre market analysis.

http://youtu.be/zOkbKUWCFGk

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

The correction we experienced yesterday will only delay the buyers and the market intention to activate the pattern in the 3 day chart. $973.20 still a potential level that can trigger the volume and it can push the new rally towards major resistance.

The daily chart manage to build a new support and it keeps the higher low intact. The SMA 10/20 are changing directions and they are showing positive signs to help the price and bring the bullish secenario back on.

240 minutes chart shows a correction that went to the main support and found reaction from the buyers. The previous consolidation is the new resistance and the price is trying to reach the $950.00 area to bring back up the previous positive momentum when the currency was close to trigger the 3 day chart pattern in $973.20.
The possibilities of a new correction are the same as yesterday but this time, the price will have to deal with the support $908.00 and buyer will try to push the price back up again and deny the lower high if the price manage to build such pattern.

The 60 minutes chart was the most important chart yesterday and the one that can trigger the 3 day chart patron. Instead, the seller manage to hold and control the buyers intentions and they send a powerful message with a red long range cnadle stick that manange to penetrate the SMA 200. But, it seems like it wasn't enough to create a domino effect and instead we see the price and the buyers pushing the movement toward the SMA again and put the price back on track.

The market still building memory and we see that the bullish signals remain the same and the patterns still intact. We keep the bullish hypothesis the same as long as the price respects certain parameters regardless of what we experienced yesterday.

Here, the pre market analysis.

http://youtu.be/unooab2J-Hg

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

The market shows new positive situations that can bring once again a new set of opportunities. The price manage to recover from the previous correction and it keeps it self above the previous resistance in the daily chart. There is a chance that the market keeps pushing the price towards $1093.00 which in this case it could be the first main target for the 3 day chart to conquer and after that the major resistance will have a visitor that it will come with more volume and a power rally potentially will set a new higher level.

The weekly chart generate new highs compare to the previous week and the penetration continues towards the bodies on the left and potentially a new up trend can create the conditions for the price to reach $1093.68 which at this point it should be the first miner target today.

The 3 day chart shows the activation of the higher low with an entry at $956.06 and it's possible that buyers will continue with the absortion of the sellers in between small and major time frames until there is no more obstacles to bring more volume and reach $1093.68.

Daily chart is showing the recovery of the price with several messages for us. The first message was coming from a powerful up trend that deny the previous correction and send the price above the resistance and now is trying to finish the absortion of the sellers to send the price towards $1.022.99.
The other message is inside the 4 hour chart and as far as I know there is a new higher low in construction in the 240 minutes chart and it can help the price to bring volume and a new rally will show up during the day thanks to what the daily chart did during the weekend.

I dont speak about news normally but, there is fundamental situation that it can help the price to set a new path towards new highs and bring more liquidity into the market.

Last week UK policymakers have ruled out treating Bitcoin as an official currency and this can only bring a positive growth into the value of the currency and will set a new horizon for the new startups and the existing bitcoin businesses.

Having said that, the market should react slowly and positive and the possibility that more liquidity will come along will increase the possibilities for the bullish hypothesis to be valid and the price should have a new positive momentum during the week.

Here is the weekly analysis

http://youtu.be/nGu4pYITEjg

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

Yesterday the market was not decisive toward the new higher low in the daily and 3 day chart. the buyers seem to keep absorbing some of the sellers that still fighting to take control but the more times goes on the more chance tha buyers have to take full control of the price and push the movement towards $1022.00 as a minor target and just to bring the volume back on the buyers side.

The 3 day chart still keeping the bullish message active and if the volume appears during the course of the day the price would have an opportunity and new up trend can send the price straight to the minor resistance first which located at $1093.7

The daily chart left a dodgy candle that it has not affect the major time frame of the entire bullish message. The volume will have a significant impact during today's market session and the next few days and if the buyer keeps full control on the price that could lead the price to a new level in oder to activate the 3 day chart pattern completely.

240 minutes chart build a new support and still keeping the previous higher low active and with a new consolidation working as we speak there is a change that this entire pattern gets move by the buyers any tome soon.

The 60 minutes chart is too erratic and it's difficult to read at this point in time.
However, the time frame still good for us and as long as the price stay above the SMA 200 there is a chance that new opportunities to go in the market will come along and eventually a domino effect will appear to take the price above $980.59.

Here, the  pre market analysis.

http://youtu.be/ornhQVqoCmo

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

The 3 day chart and the daily chart are both showing higher lows and potentially a new message advising that buyer are almost done with the sellers and a potential up trend towards $1,099.99 will be on it's way.
Before that, the price will need to break the daily highs from yesterday and that will trigger the trend and eventually a new rally.

The daily chart shows a new dodgy candle stick and regardless of the uncertainty the price still showing sings of a bullish trend is on the way and the buyer still pushing the seller away of the area. Buyers need to get rid of all the sellers in that area to be able to send the price up.

The price will have to penetrate the daily highs from yesterday $974,64 so the buyers can bring more volume and only then the price will a try to reach $980,59 and $1,093,00. those are the key levels to bring the volume up and push the 3 day chart towards $1,242,00.

240 Minutes chart keep showing a massive consolidation that it's just absorbing the sellers and until there no more sellers around the area the price will stay fluctuating between support and resistance. Price should penetrate $974,64 and test test the market will a potential visit to $1,022,99 area. that should bring some volatility due the fact that $1,093,00 is the area where some of the sellers will be pushing the price down.

60 minutes chart still too erratic and it keeps complicating the readings but the SMA 200 is quite close to the price and the other SMA 10/20 still trying to show direction but there is not solid lead that can tell us that the price will use the SMA 10 as a main support to build higher lows or a new over extended move.

In the event that a correction comes along there is $932,00 area for the price to reach first and if that happens then the price will look for $920,00 and that's when we have to reevaluate our bullish hypothesis.
The only problem with the bearish hypothesis is that $932,00 area is where the SMA 200 is set and that's the 60 minutes chart so it is possible that some buyer will try to push the price back up to $950,00 and the consolidation will continue one more time.

Here, the pre market analysis.

http://youtu.be/qeKecrFiP_k

[Lucano]

Good morning Bitcoiners

Pre Market analysis today was not possible due to technical updates from my end.

Will be back with the post market analysis in the afternoon.

Have a good trading day !!

Cheers.

Lucano.

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

The price push the buyers away last night and create a down trend that still keeping the sellers on the game and with possibilities to push down towards $827,00 and below. The most relevant part of all this could be the fact that the correction hasn't  affect the highr low in the 3 day chart and the daily chart keeps the consolidation in between support and resistance.

The 3 day chart is keeping the higher low formation intact regardless of what happen last night and the consolidation and fluctuation of the price is keeping the bullish hypothesis with possibilities of an up trend momentum. This sideways trend can give some traders som opportunities to trade in small time frames where the profits could 1:1 / 2:1 trading in between supports and resistance.

The daily chart shows a potential triple bottom tale situation that might help the sellers to visit $867,43 and if price goes to that area then the buyer will react with buying power and volatility to push the price towards $950,00 one more time and neutralized the sell off that that correction can bring at that moment.

240 minutes shows that the price visited an important support and it might push the price back up again and this is because the importance of the area where the price is located. The area I'm mentioning now was an area where the price deny a lower high and push the price up to $980,00.

60 Minutes chart is keeping the down trend active and the price is below the SMA 200. Buyers will try to deny such correction with a visit to the SMA 200 and up. The price will ride the SMA if possible and after that a new higher low can potentially send the price one again to the previous consolidation area and above $950,00.

Here,the pre market.

http://youtu.be/r9N25v3XbOY

[kwest]

I just wanted to chime in and say that I enjoy your reports, especially the youtube videos. Keep it up.

[Lucano]

I just wanted to chime in and say that I enjoy your reports, especially the youtube videos. Keep it up.

Thanks mate !! 

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

It was a very interesting weekend for everyone, specially the buyers that have full control over the price and once again the volume seem to show up just at the right time. New movements in the major time frames are showing that the two higher low's (weekly/3Days) can bring more volume and more momentum to the potential rally during the course of the week.

The monthly chart shows how the actual price is trying to deny the entire candle and is possible that the price reaches again it's  own top tale $1093,68 which I believe is one of the main targets for the buyers.

The weekly chart has a new higher low and buyers are trying to bring more volume and market makers to push the trend towards the major resistance. The first obstacle is $1038,16 and after that, there is free space for the price to reach $1093,68.

3 days chart shows the same pattern htis time is another higher low and the price is penetrating the top tales that right now makes things more esy for the buyers and why not for the entire up trend. $1093.68 is the area that can bring high volatility and eventually new opportunities.

Last but not least, the daily chart shows another higher low and the synchronization fot he whole three major time frames can give a bullish result that can set a new uptrend and a new rally towards the historical highs during the course of the week.

Here is the Weekly Analysis.

http://youtu.be/nLnhmKHbjfw

[Lucano]

Good Day Bitcoiners,

The correction we've experience yesterday only delay the buyers intentions and the bullish message still the same. It is possible that the sell off yesterday was influence by different factors but the fundamentals still intact and the market continues with a high spirit towards a potential up trend.

The daily chart shows a retracement that still hasn't deny the previous higher low and keep the bullish signal intact. There is  new support where the price will bring more traders and volume should come along to try to push the price back up to the resistance area $1006,99 and up $1038,16.

The 12 hour chart is showing a higher low in formation which a very positive signal for the buyers and the market makers. This higher low can the one pushing the price towards $1038.16 so the price can recover from yesterday.

240 minutes chart did manage to have a down trend and an over extended trend that reach the major support and the SMa 200. Those two factors manage to stop the sell off and it is bringing more buyers. That only benefit the price towards a new up trend towards minor resistance if the volume keeps coming during the course of the day.

60 minutes chart is showing a price pushing the up trend and trying to reach the SMA 200. Price can ride the SMA 200 for the rest of the day or in the last case scenario the price can push toward $1006.99 and the entire movement can help the price to recover from yesterday.

The down trend hypothesis can happen if the price build a lower high in 240 minutes chart and if that occur then the price can try to visit $867,00.

Here, the pre market analysis.

http://youtu.be/PtCJJQhsBSY

[dnaleor]

We do not see so much bullish signs on other exchanges. The reason? MtGox spread is getting bigger and bigger by the day...

Maybe consider including btc-e and/or bitstamp in your analysis?

[Lucano]

We do not see so much bullish signs on other exchanges. The reason? MtGox spread is getting bigger and bigger by the day...

Maybe consider including btc-e and/or bitstamp in your analysis?

The technical aspect can be use in the other trading platforms.
If you read multiple time frames and do a cross check with all the trading platform graphics you will see that all of them are almost identical.

I will keep an eye on the other platforms and share the insights. 

[Miz4r]

I am surprised so many people still base their analysis on MtGox data. I'm sure there used to be a good amount of correlation between the exchanges, but with all the issues around Gox this correlation is surely shrinking fast and it will skew your analysis. There is no reason not to use Stamp or BTC-e for price analysis in my opinion, the price is much closer to the actual market value and you don't have to deal with Gox noise.

[Lucano]

There is no reason not to use Stamp or BTC-e for price analysis in my opinion

What would be your way of trading bitcoin?
P.S: There is traders here and they are using the technical analysis on a daily basis because is their profession...you know that?

[Miz4r]

There is no reason not to use Stamp or BTC-e for price analysis in my opinion

What would be your way of trading bitcoin?
P.S: There is traders here and they are using the technical analysis on a daily basis because is their profession...you know that?

What's your point exactly? I just meant that I think that using Gox charts for analysis is silly at this time. Yes, it may correlate pretty well but Gox doesn't set the market value and there's lots of noise there because of withdrawal issues and speculation on a possible default/shutdown. Look at the volume on Gox lately, it's declining and traders want out and go to other more healthier exchanges with bigger volume like Stamp or BTC-e.

[F-bernanke]

I enjoy your videos Lucano, thanks alot for sharing them.

I agree on the sentiment that gox is more or less irrelevent these days, I would focus on the Stamp chart.

[outofservice]

It's interesting to see so many "not for" Gox. I have never used Gox but when I got into BTC some many months ago Everyone was using Gox. With the wild $180-$200 price difference to Bitstamp and BTC-E... that's just too volatile for me. I'll stick with BTC-e and Stamp to gauge where the market really is and what it's actually doing. It's much easier to day-trade with those two, IMO.

It would be interesting to poll how many have moved to other platforms and away from Gox. Seems like many are jumping the Gox ship.