Videoblog & Technical Analysis for Bitcoin

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

With a weak price and several external factor putting pressure on market it self so the seller can have full control the only option available at this point is with the counter trends. The counter trends are necessary for the formation of new bearish patterns and that’s when we can take advantage of the market before the price reaches $339,79 because that area can create high levels of volatility.

The weekly chart shows a retracement that still trying to reach a minor support at $416,11. That support is can be history today and the continuation of the correction can only push the price towards $339,79. There is a possibility that the price reacts from the $416,11 area which a minor support and if that happen that could be a bonus for counter trends because if there not reaction from the buyers at the level then the price will have space towards the major support in the bext 72 hours of market and the panic will help the movement to speed up a bit more.

The 3 days chart shows the last 3 days of correction denying what buyer manage to build and the price is going towards $397,16 which is a minor support and a minor level of reaction that could stop the sellers or it will just confirm the bearish trend towards major support and potentialy the SMA 200.

The daily chart it’s not a positive one either for the buyers that got positions above $500,00. The last 3 days of retracements just manage to give to the price possibilities and to the sellers opportunities to create a new sell off to reach below $397,16 but, before that the price needs to reach $413,72 and that area could be an area where a new consolidation can start.

The panic only brings opportunities to the market and the professional traders that have a plan and they use it. A plan can minimized the loses, the exposure and the emotions. Make sure you have a plan for the new opportunities.

Here is the Weekly Analysis.

http://youtu.be/at2enbFS0Rs

[1714970715]

1714970715

[Lucano]

Good Morning bitcoiners,

Yersterday the market was showing signs of reaction from the buyers side which will benefit the creation of new bearish patterns, possible consolidations or the last case scenario could be a powerful up trend that can deny the previous correction in more than 50%. The down trend is the strongest one and it can continue towards $397,16 which is a minor support but the main target is located at $339,79.

The other possibility is that the buyers can try to reach the dialy highs from yesterday which are located at $452,16 and if the buyers volume comes in there is a chance for the price to reach $470,96 and that can send a new message towards a potential up trend denying the previous retracement. Counter trends can be beneficial if we use small time frames such as 60 minutes or 15 minutes chart to reach 1 or 2 targets to keep the performance up.

The 12 hours chart shows a new bearish pattern (Lower High in construction) that could send the price straigh to $397,16 and keep the penetration towards the major support and create a new sell off that can bing new volatility to the market and more opportunities intraday. The volume from buyers or sellers is important if we want to see a new behaviour from the price it self or a continuation of the down trend towards major support.

240 minutes chart is some a lack of coordination with the two top major time frames (daily/12H Chart). We see deep up trends denying the previous retracements and  the price seems that it’s trying to reach the SMA 200  and if that happen that can change the conditions of the market and the counter trends can bring new opportunities during the day as long as the volume shows up

Finally, the 60 minutes chart shows coordiantion with the 240 minutes charts and its the chart with more activity from the major times frames for last two days. From $424,00 the price keeps it’s motion with powerful up trend denying the previous previous powerful retracements. The previous up trend manage to deny 3 lower highs and there is a new higher low in formation that can take the price towards $461,97 and after that the next target could be the SMA 200 which located at $471,00.

Opportunities will be available with the small time frames that can help traders to reach 1 or 2 targets so the positive performance can stay on our side.

Here is the Pre Market Analysis.

http://youtu.be/5TWZkizPyW4

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

The 3 day chart shows a price reaching the SMA200 and buyers could use this area to create a new support area and at the same time this area can create an up trend that it will try to deny the previous candle stick and the price will try to reach $495,53. We have to take into consideration that this hypothesis it’s subject to fail because if the sellers volume keeps coming. The messages are pretty much incosistent between major time frames and intraday time frames such as 240 minutes and 60 minutes chart.

It’s not an easy task for the sellers trying to push the price below the SMA 200 in the 3 day chart and the battle for control over the price is far from over at this point and the counter trends can be the answer today.

The daily chart is showing how week the price is at the moment and the new lower high in formation is just the confirmation of how far the price can go in the event that buyers can’t push the price back up one more time. The lower high is not 100% ready but, in case the bearish pattern goes on there is a chance that the down trend reaches $381,88 which is the next support available in this time frame.

At the same time it is possible that the price tries to create a lower high failure to push the price up and deny the previous correction with a new patterns that can deny in more than 70% the previous correction and price could reach $463,73. This hypothesis could change the behaviour of the price and the market itself to benefit the buyers and the counter trends towards minor resistance.

The 12 hours chart is showing a price denying the previous retracement 100%. Regardless of the bearish patterns in the 3 day chart and daily chart, there is a chance that the 12 hours chart brings a new consolidation against the sellers intentions and if this happen we can find  the lower high failure hypothesis for the daily chart more accurate in this case.

The 240 minutes chart shows a lower high failure and a consolidation that right now is trying to break up towards the SMA 200. This situation can continue towards the $460,00 area. The last case scenario could be that the seller will manage to penetrate the supports and push the price towards $423,00 in if that happen there is a chance that the price could reach it’s major target for the day $412,97.

With the 60 minutes chart the consolidation is more clear and the SMA 200 more close to the price. The buyers volume is increasing by the hour and there is a chance for a potential break up towards the SMA 200 but that could only happen is the price manage to penetrate above $443,89.

Here is the Pre Market Analysis.

http://youtu.be/IRd4lpZkIwc

[Lucano]

Good Day Bitcoiners,

This morning in London we experience the continuation of the up trend which is the one that it was trying to penetrate key resistance areas towards $460,00 and now the price manage to push it self up above the SMA200 in time framaes such as 60 minutes chart and it's giving the buyers opportunity to build new buying patterns to take the price above $470,96.

Today's analysis will show the post market situations and how the other side of the world with their buyers and sellers will take advantage of the opportunities that the market is presenting right now

The daily chart shows a price penetrating the cluster on the left hand side and still have room to move forward towards $470,96 in case the buyers brings sufficient volume to extend the up trend. the other case scenario is happening as we speak, the up trend is over extended and that will create a potential retracement during the night.

The 12 hours chart shows a lower high failure and the up trend manage to reach the top tales of the minor resistance on the left hand side, helping the price to take off towards the $480,00 area and if price reaches that area there is a possibility that the seller will try to push the price down to deny the entire up trend.

We support the bullish hypothesis based on what the 240 minutes chart shows at this point. The 240 minutes chart shows a price reaching the SMA200 and a new higher low trying to continue the penetration of the top tales of the previous resistance. Buyers volume still growing and there is a chance for the up trend to reach $470,00 first before the new challenge appears which is the $480,00 area.

The 60 minutes chart show similarities with the previous time frame and now that the price is above the SMA200 the buyers might build a new consolidation using the SMA200 as a main support to help the major time frames to build the new buying patterns that can take the price up towards $480,00 and eventually $491,75 .

The bearish hypothesis still alive and if the sellers create a down trend that reaches $444,79 then we have to change the strategy and wait for more messages from the major time frames becuase the retracement to that area can only be good for the sellers and the new lower high on the daily chart will be real.

Here is the Market Analysis for today.

http://youtu.be/hw6tNpwoCk0

[Lucano]

Good Day Bitcoiners,

Today the market shows that the sellers still trying to the deny the last 4 days of possitive momentum from the buyers. At the same time the up trend on the daily charts is not a strong one and it couldn't penetrate the previous retracement and the price only manage to create new highs $465,88 The price still weak and it can continue the correction if the buyers can't consolidate the price during today's session.

Good Day Bitcoiners,

Today the market shows that the sellers still trying to the deny the last 4 days of possitive momentum from the buyers. At the same time the up trend on the daily charts is not a strong one and it couldn't penetrate the previous retracement and the price only manage to create new highs $465,88 The price still weak and it can continue the correction if the buyers can't consolidate the price during today's session.

The daily chart shows that the up trend is taking a break from the previous 4 days after the price manage to reach $465,88 and at the same time today's market is creating new lower levels leaving the bearish pattern (Lower High) with more chance to be build. If the lower high gets active there is a chance that the price will go down towards $433,00 which is a minor target bacause the major target for the today's market for the sellers is located at $397,16 and it will erase what the buyers manage to build for the last 4 days.

The 12 hours chart is very similar to the daily chart and the only situation that can change the behaviour of the price right now is with the buyers. The buyers have to build a new consolidation intraday that can help the price to stay in between support and resistance to help the daily chart and the 3 day chart to continue with the absorption of the sellers  in order to build a new buying pattern. In the event that this hypothesis don't work then the sellers will push the price toward $424,00.

The 240 minutes chart show a more positive time frame and it is possible that the price will try to bonce back up to build a new lower high or a new up trend can erase the previous retracement and the SMA200 will be the next target. The SMA200 could be use as consolidation area to build a new pattern that can lead the price one more time towards $465,88 and the reason for that is because the price reach the $465,88 once and it can reach it and continue towards $490,00.

The 60 minutes char shows a previous over extended retracement that it manage to visit a minor support. the price and the seller have a lot of congestion on the left hand side and there is not an easy task for the sellers to push the price towards $433,08 which is the main support in this particular time frame. If the price reaches the SMA200 again there is a possibility that it uses the SMA200 to hold it self from it and ride the SMA200 until a new higher low appears to penetrate areas above $465,88 which is the previous highs on the daily chert.

Here is the Pre Market Analysis.

http://youtu.be/pPmyvyZHanU

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

Once again the bearish momentum that the price is experiencing right now keeps the seller in full control of the market and the down trend still have a chance to continue towards major support $339,79 and in the event that this down trend keep the sellrs volume in a high level then the worse case scenario could be that the price reach the SMA 200 on the weekly chart.
The weekly chart shows a price reaching a minor support $416,11 and there is a chance that the down trend keeps going  because there is not obstacles on the left hand side for this particular time frame that can stop the trend towards $336,79 unless the next counter trends manage to push the price back up towards minor resistance intraday.

The 3 days chart keep the bearish hypothesis from last week active. We explained last week that it was not strong up trends from the buyers side that can interrupt the bearish momentum intraday, instead we have a powerful “b” formation that right now it seems that it’s getting traction from the sellers and it will try to penetrate the actual lower levels from the daily chart to conquer the minor support and keep the down trend towards $339,79.

The daily chart show 4 days of down trends and a new lower high that it’s resisting to developed towards $397,16 and the reason why the price is not keeping the down trend going is probably because the previous the pattern is over extended and it maange to reach a support area that it’s acting as point of reaction and that can help the buyers and the potential counter trends for the next 24/72 hours of market.

If we look at the 12 hours chart we can see the over extended down trend in more detail and right now the manage to build a new double bottom tale that can act as a new support and if that happen there is a chance that the price goes back up and the counter trend will bring opportunities into the market for the traders and the market makers. The market can bring enough buyers and sufficient volume to push the price above $445,00 and that will be the first of many small details that can help us to create the potential bullish hypothesis of new bullish pattern towards $470,96.

Here is the Weekly Analysis.

http://youtu.be/PxOHd8wu164

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoines,

The consolidation we have in major time frames are bringing positive opportunities for the buyers and after the price manage to build a new double tale area there is trying to push the price up towards areas such as $445.00 but the major target for the buyers is probably $465,88 and that means powerful counter trends and a new potential change on the behaviour of the price and a new challenge for the seller.

The 12 hours chart shows the buyers trying to push the price up towards $445,00 and could be the up trend that can trigger a more powerful counter trend towards $465,88 if the buyer and their volume keeps growing during today’s session.

The 240 minutes chart is showing a lower high failure that can benefit the counter trends and if the price manage to penetrate $445,00 buyers will have a change to generate profits reaching a minor target $455,78 keeping the momentum towards $465,88.

60 minutes chart is very similar to the previous time frame and both frames have the similar patterns that can invite the buyers with their volume to push the price towards the SMA 200 and after that target the buyers will have $445,00 and $455,78 before reaching $465,88.

In the event that the last hypothesis becomes a reality there is a chance that the behaviour of the price will change and the buyers will have more opportunities to go in the market and create buying pattern to benefit the new trend.

Here is the Pre Market Analysis

http://youtu.be/SUKHnFQFKOk

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

The price is giving us the ideal conditions for a new up trend and the 3 day chart is sending the right messages. If price manage to reach $465,88 the market will change it's behaviour and the new pattern on the weekly chart will be the one to watch.

The daily chart shows how powerful the previous up trend was and it manage to reach $452,00 with only one day of market, denying 4 days of retracements and sending an important message to the market and bringing more opportunities intraday.

There is opportunities with all the time frames right now. The 12 hours chart shows an up trend that manage to deny the previous down trend in more than 90% and it's building a new consolidation that can bring more positive opportunities during today's market session. With the right volume from the buyers side there is a chance that the price will penetrate $452,00 and if that happen there is a new target for the price and the up trend which is $465,88 and potentially $470,96.

The price shows a new double bottom tale in the 240 minutes chart that is trying to reach the SMA 200 which is near $465,88. the price .  If the price reaches the SMA 200 there is a possibility that it uses the SMA as support to continue it's bullish momentum towards $465,88 and the next target could be $490,00.

The $445,00 was the first of 3 major targets for the price in order to see a new behaviour on the price and the market. The $452,00 was the second target and right now $465,88 is the last target that if the price manage to reach then the up trend will have a new opportunity that can take the momentum to the next big target which is the $490,00 area.

http://youtu.be/-LupsIk_yFQ

[damnek]

Thanks for posting your analyses Lucano! They are balanced and therefore useful.

[chessnut]

yup It's always great to hear your take Lucano.

[Lucano]

Thanks for posting your analyses Lucano! They are balanced and therefore useful.

Thank you!! 

[Lucano]

yup It's always great to hear your take Lucano.

Thanks a lot !! 

[Lucano]

Thanks for posting your analyses Lucano! They are balanced and therefore useful.

Thank you. If they are useful then I'm happy!! 

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

The price still not ready for a change and seller are keeping the control of the situation. Yesterday, the seller manage to deny 4 days of up trends sending and important message to the market and warning the buyers that the price still a bit far from the potential bullish trend that we mentioned in previous sessions. The next 72 hours will bring counter trends that can take the price to different levels and new opportunities will appear intraday.

The weekly chart shows the price visiting an important support area and shows how weak the price is at this point and the possibilities of a continuation of the correction still possible. If the down trend continues there is a chance for the price to reach $397,16 which is the last obstacle before the price reaches $339,79.

In order to see the latest bearish hypothesis happening, we need to see the 3 days chart and the price leading it's ways towards $420,27. That area that I mentioned just now can increase the sellers volume and at the same time it can speed up the retracement towards $397,16. which is the last obstacle towards the major support.


The daily chart shows a pull back that it manage to cancel 4 days of a positive up trend with only one day of market but at the same time still didin't mamange to reach $420,27 which is an area that can trigger selling orders and it can create a new sell off.

The bullish hypothesis still around with counter trends and potential opportunities with small time frames such as 15 minutes chart and 60 minutes chart. during the next 72 hours.

If the price manage to push it self up and reach $460,00 then it's possible that new buying patterns will appear denying previous retracements and a new side ways trend can appear one more time with a fluctuation between supports ($460,00) and resistance ($470,96). This could benefit buyers and sellers but specially the buyers intraday with operations in small time frames reaching 1, 2, 3 targets.

Here is the Weekly Analysis.

http://youtu.be/Mqa90bZMNf0

[dnaleor]

I don't believe the bearish hypotesis.
We broke the downtrend on the charts. I think we have seen the bottom. From now on, it will go up. Mark my words

[Lucano]

I don't believe the bearish hypotesis.
We broke the downtrend on the charts. I think we have seen the bottom. From now on, it will go up. Mark my words

I would like to feel the same way but, the 12 hours chart has to show a bigger up trend than the one we have right now because so far the pattern is turning into a new Lower high and that could send the price below  $429,60 and $420,27 could be the level of reaction. 

[dnaleor]

I don't believe the bearish hypotesis.
We broke the downtrend on the charts. I think we have seen the bottom. From now on, it will go up. Mark my words

I would like to feel the same way but, the 12 hours chart has to show a bigger up trend than the one we have right now because so far the pattern is turning into a new Lower high and that could send the price below  $429,60 and $420,27 could be the level of reaction. 

pff, I just bought at 443
I don't care of it "retests" 420.27 or not. In a month we will see >500 I guess

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

Buyers can't take over the sellers and the up trend from previous session couldn't deny previous correction. It's possible that the new selling patterns in 12 hours chart and 240 minutes chart will take the price towards $429,60 and if the price manage to penetrate below that area then the seller will have an opportunity to push the price towards $397,16 unless a new up trend denies the bearish hypothesis and buyers push the price towards $448,00

The daily chart is showing that the price hasn't been able to reach the last daily highs $447,77 and buyers can't deny the previous retracements. The continuation of the down trend is possible if the price manage to reach $431,56.

The 12 hours chart is not giving much hope to the traders that are trapped. The $459,80 was a very good area the close positions and so far the new consolidation will only work for the sellers at this point  because the 12 hours chart is building a new lower high that can take the price towards $425,67 and potentially the down trend can take the price to the major support area $420,27 which is the main target for this particula time frame.

The 240 minutes chart show a different story that it can benefit the buyers if the price manage to deny the lower high and the up trend reaches $454,15. With that in mind, the price will deny the previous correction in all the major time frames and it will bring new set of buying patterns that will push the price towards the SMA 200 and $459,24 will be an easy target for the buyers.

The hypothesis for the 240 minutes chart it's possible because of the long consolidation we are experiencing right now in the 60 minutes chart. The 60 minutes chart show a price using the SMA n200 as support and resistance at the same time and if the price keep building a strong support that's when we will see an unbalance market bringing benefits to the buyers.

The bearish and bullish hypothesis shows that market is in balance right now and we need a break up or break down in the 60 minutes chart to resolve the situation, take advantage of the patterns and follow the trading plan and the trend.

Here is the Pre Market Analysis.

http://youtu.be/c-DU7RkOoNA

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

The possibilities of a new up trend or the continuation of the down trend still active. The balance between the two sides buyers and sellers still equal and sellers want to take the price down towards $428,01 so they can keep their momentum until they reach $397,16 and in the other hand, the buyers are trying to create a new higher low in the daily chart to take the price towards $458,20.The buyers seems to have a small advantage at this point and $458,20 seems possible if the buyers volume keeps coming.

The 12 hours chart shows a Lower High failure that it manage to deny the previous retracement, pushing the price up and at the same time buyers are trying to find no obstacles to set a new pattern or to keep the momentum and take the price towards $458,20.

Now, the 240 minutes chart is showing another Lower High failure, a new triple bottom tale and  a new pull back that it manage to deny the previous retracement. the price and the buyers can keep the momentum towards $449,80 which is the new resistance area so a new challenge will emerge. The challenge for the buyers is to absorb all the congestion if the price reaches $449,80 so the up trend can penetrate the SMA 200.

In the 60 minutes chart we can see how the price is using the SMA 200 as support and resistance at the same time. A new higher low is trying to keep the momentum so the price can reach $448,00 and if the price reaches that area, the buyers volume will increase and a second Higher Low will be the one who can confirm the buyers intentions to push the price towards $459,24.

The buyers have a small advantage at this point and if the price keeps it’s momentum and reaches $459,24 that will help the major time frames to create a new set of buying patterns that can lead the price towards $470,96 and set a new Lower High failure on the daily chart which in my opinion will be the pattern that can change everything.

Here is the Pre Market Analysis.

http://youtu.be/S4D-R0JcDgY

[Lucano]

Good Morning Bitcoiners,

The price manage to register new highs taking the price to $449,79 and at the same time the price is showing that buyer can keep the penetration of previous retracement in order to send a new message to the market establishing that the market and the buyers will try to keep the momentum with a new set of buying patterns intraday or a potential consolidation to help the major time frames to build the buying patters and push the price above $458,20.

The 12 hours chart shows a Lower High failure plus and over extended up trend that can continue towards $458,20 denying the previous correction 100% and setting new possibilities for the price to chance the bearish trend and for the market to benefit the buyers.

At the same time the 240 minutes chart shows the Lower High failure and the up trend that it manage to continue towards the minor resistance. The bottom tale of this new resistance is $449,80 and the top tale is the resistance is $459,24 which is above the SMA 200. In my opinion, the SMA 200 and $449,80 are the new challenge for the buyers right now.

The over extended trend needs a new consolidation and a new bullish pattern to confirm the buyers intentions in the 12 hours chart and the daily chart so in that way a new set of messages can keep the momentum and benefit the buyers.

The 60 minutes chart shows in more detail the evolution of the up trend and the messages we collect in today's analysis. The price still using the SMA 200 as support and resistance  almost at the same time in order to change the down trend in the major time frames. The SMA 200, 20 and 10  they are working in a positive way in this time frame and it can help to develop of a new set of bullish patterns to keep the buyers and the opportunities on the buyers side.

Here is the Pre Market Analysis.

http://youtu.be/2qtQ9eE05LY