P_Shep
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1795
Merit: 1208
This is not OK.
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October 09, 2013, 11:30:02 AM |
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Those KnCs dont seem to be making a dent yet.
Taking that back. Of course its hard to say how much of the current hashrate spike is statistical noise, how much KnC, Bitfury or any of the other players, but the game is on it seems: Last 120 08/10/2013 20:47 262437-262557 279 863 848 x1.48 Last 10 09/10/2013 09:13 262547-262557 288 979 007 x1.53 Next 16/10/2013 15:48 264096 263 789 841 x1.39 If its not a statistical fluke, its bound to go up further considerably as KnC is no where near done shipping/deploying. Will we see 300M difficulty the next round? I think we may. Man, yeah that's one hell of a jump!
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Puppet
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 980
Merit: 1040
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October 09, 2013, 11:55:38 AM |
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Just saw this on reddit: http://www.futureblock.com/Lets you bet on the network hashrate increase. pretty neat idea, and afaict, well executed. I just wish the criterion was the unambigious difficulty instead of a guestimated network hashrate
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abdulmad
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October 09, 2013, 12:10:36 PM |
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I believe alt coins will be feeling the heat as well when this happens.
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hulk
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October 09, 2013, 12:20:06 PM |
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Based on this website. Its much higher...
Current difficulty: 189,281,249 Next difficulty (estimate): 268,541,367
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Puppet
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 980
Merit: 1040
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October 09, 2013, 12:23:15 PM |
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Based on this website. Its much higher...
Current difficulty: 189,281,249 Next difficulty (estimate): 268,541,367
Its not the website thats so different, its just the time you are looking at it. Right now dot-bit predicts even more, 289M (x1.53) But this estimate is based on a too short sample, simple luck / variance plays a very big role, so its too early to say we will really see such a jump. I wouldnt rule it out though, like I said 300M may be possible.
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hulk
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October 09, 2013, 12:33:46 PM |
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Based on this website. Its much higher...
Current difficulty: 189,281,249 Next difficulty (estimate): 268,541,367
Its not the website thats so different, its just the time you are looking at it. Right now dot-bit predicts even more, 289M (x1.53) But this estimate is based on a too short sample, simple luck / variance plays a very big role, so its too early to say we will really see such a jump. I wouldnt rule it out though, like I said 300M may be possible. You are right, I looked at the same website and the estimate difficulty jumps to even higher. Current difficulty: 189,281,249 Next difficulty (estimate): 288,762,149 Oh man, I do hope its much lower..
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viriat0
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October 09, 2013, 01:38:41 PM |
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very high!!
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P_Shep
Legendary
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Activity: 1795
Merit: 1208
This is not OK.
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October 09, 2013, 10:44:37 PM |
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Dropped back to where it was. Maybe luck, maybe testing!
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smoothie
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2492
Merit: 1473
LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper
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October 10, 2013, 12:13:42 AM |
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New guess is 231,000,000
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███████████████████████████████████████
,╓p@@███████@╗╖, ,p████████████████████N, d█████████████████████████b d██████████████████████████████æ ,████²█████████████████████████████, ,█████ ╙████████████████████╨ █████y ██████ `████████████████` ██████ ║██████ Ñ███████████` ███████ ███████ ╩██████Ñ ███████ ███████ ▐▄ ²██╩ a▌ ███████ ╢██████ ▐▓█▄ ▄█▓▌ ███████ ██████ ▐▓▓▓▓▌, ▄█▓▓▓▌ ██████─ ▐▓▓▓▓▓▓█,,▄▓▓▓▓▓▓▌ ▐▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▌ ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓─ ²▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓╩ ▀▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▀ ²▀▀▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▀▀` ²²² ███████████████████████████████████████
| . ★☆ WWW.LEALANA.COM My PGP fingerprint is A764D833. History of Monero development Visualization ★☆ . LEALANA BITCOIN GRIM REAPER SILVER COINS. |
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niothor
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October 10, 2013, 02:14:52 AM |
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Bitcoin difficulty
Time Block Difficulty Ratio Last change 06/10/2013 14:42 262080 189 281 249 x1.17 Last 120 09/10/2013 09:13 262546-262666 223 942 585 x1.18 Last 10 10/10/2013 01:27 262656-262666 475 183 053 x2.51 Next 18/10/2013 11:34 264096 223 259 328 x1.18
now this is going to be funny
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hulk
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October 10, 2013, 02:25:55 AM |
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http://bitcoindifficulty.com/Current difficulty: 189,281,249 Next difficulty (estimate): 223,259,328 Sorry guys, but im not really good with maths. How come the difficulty swing so much up and down. I understand some people stop their mining at night and so on but this huge swing?
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Puppet
Legendary
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Activity: 980
Merit: 1040
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October 10, 2013, 06:24:06 AM |
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http://bitcoindifficulty.com/Current difficulty: 189,281,249 Next difficulty (estimate): 223,259,328 Sorry guys, but im not really good with maths. How come the difficulty swing so much up and down. I understand some people stop their mining at night and so on but this huge swing? You can not measure the hashrate. All you can measure is how long it takes to find blocks, and from that estimate the hashrate (and future difficulty). Blocks finding is heavily subjected to luck, so you need a lot of blocks to get a reasonable estimate. Just have a look at these charts to get an idea: http://bitcoin.sipa.be/
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Miz4r
Legendary
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Activity: 1246
Merit: 1000
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October 10, 2013, 11:16:10 AM |
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New guess is 231,000,000
Are you crazy or just bad at math and projections? Difficulty will be way above 240M at the next jump and probably also over 250M. This is a blatant certainty, you can bet on it.
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Bitcoin = Gold on steroids
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Kluge
Donator
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Activity: 1218
Merit: 1015
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October 10, 2013, 11:28:53 AM Last edit: October 10, 2013, 11:39:24 AM by Kluge |
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Kludgey method: Difficulty can be roughly determined by hashpower at the mid-way point of the difficulty change window (7D in a stagnant mining network) IF it isn't an anomaly (that is, hashpower increase remains fairly linear). We're roughly 4.85 days in and if this were the halfway point, the difficulty could be projected @ 240M. 7/4.85=~1.4433 (estimated %increase from current point to 7D point). 1.4433*(240-189.28[<-Cur. diff.])= 73.204 (estimated difficulty increase).
Projected difficulty: 262.484META: Nope, all wrong. Forgot to factor in that this isn't a stagnant network, and diff change window <14D. Hrm. Without maffing it out, assuming 11.5D window... 5.75D ends up being the halfway point. 5.75/4.85=~1.185567. 1.185567*(240-189.28)=60.13195824. Projected difficulty: ~249.412M. In reality, because hashpower increases exponentially, not linearly (right now), an adjusted projection would be ~251-253M. There's a lot of corner-cutting going on here, though.
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Nemo1024
Legendary
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Activity: 1680
Merit: 1014
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October 10, 2013, 11:59:35 AM |
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223,439,792 in 8 days.
KnC is not shipping as fast as expected, so the next diff jump might not be that huge.
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“Dark times lie ahead of us and there will be a time when we must choose between what is easy and what is right.” “We are only as strong as we are united, as weak as we are divided.” “It is important to fight and fight again, and keep fighting, for only then can evil be kept at bay, though never quite eradicated.”
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naRky
Sr. Member
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Activity: 350
Merit: 250
Bitcoin is the future...
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October 10, 2013, 12:04:11 PM |
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KnC has 1000 units left to ship = 500Th = 71mil diff till end of october = next jump 220mil, my guess
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Puppet
Legendary
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Activity: 980
Merit: 1040
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October 10, 2013, 12:11:42 PM |
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KnC has 1000 units left to ship = 500Th = 71mil diff till end of october = next jump 220mil, my guess
You think BFL stopped shipping all of their ~3000TH backlog ? Bitfury stopped shipping and expanding (~+100TH or so in their private mine alone this month so far)? You sure asicminer will not deploy zero of the 500TH this month as friedcat claimed? Then there is the slim chance Hashfast would actually deliver on their promise. We are already looking at 240-260M next week without any of the above. Good luck betting on 220 by the end of the month
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naRky
Sr. Member
Offline
Activity: 350
Merit: 250
Bitcoin is the future...
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October 10, 2013, 12:21:36 PM |
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KnC has 1000 units left to ship = 500Th = 71mil diff till end of october = next jump 220mil, my guess
You think BFL stopped shipping all of their ~3000TH backlog ? Bitfury stopped shipping and expanding (~+100TH or so in their private mine alone this month so far)? You sure asicminer will not deploy zero of the 500TH this month as friedcat claimed? Then there is the slim chance Hashfast would actually deliver on their promise. We already looking at 240-260M next week without any of the above. Good luck betting on 220 by the end of the month HashFast - already stated that in BEST case scenario shipping starts first week of november. ASICminer - dont know Bitfury - few TH BFL - few TH (with they babies 5,25,50) EDIT: im betting 220 for next jump not the end of the month!
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Puppet
Legendary
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Activity: 980
Merit: 1040
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October 10, 2013, 12:33:11 PM |
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220M would mean 1.57PH. Were are already at ~1.7PH and growing. Maybe if all those KnCs catch fire and we have a terrible streak of bad luck, we could get down to 220. But Im betting anything you want against that.
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niothor
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October 10, 2013, 12:39:09 PM |
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Of course this is random , and only for 10 blocks , but still..
"Last 10 10/10/2013 12:04 262741-262751 582 403 844 x3.08"
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