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Author Topic: Sniff ... do you smell smoke?  (Read 8367 times)
Stephen Gornick
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January 29, 2011, 09:49:31 PM
 #1



The Billion Prices Project is an academic initiative that collects prices from hundreds of online retailers around the world on a daily basis to conduct economic research.

Above CPI:
http://bpp.mit.edu/daily-price-indexes/?country=USA
http://bpp.mit.edu/daily-price-indexes/?country=FRANCE
http://bpp.mit.edu/daily-price-indexes/?country=RUSSIA
http://bpp.mit.edu/daily-price-indexes/?country=ITALY
http://bpp.mit.edu/daily-price-indexes/?country=ARGENTINA
http://bpp.mit.edu/daily-price-indexes/?country=AUSTRALIA
http://bpp.mit.edu/daily-price-indexes/?country=VENEZUELA
http://bpp.mit.edu/daily-price-indexes/?country=COLOMBIA

At or below:
http://bpp.mit.edu/daily-price-indexes/?country=BRAZIL
http://bpp.mit.edu/daily-price-indexes/?country=TURKEY

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bitcoinex
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January 29, 2011, 10:49:15 PM
 #2

very interesting

New bitcoin lottery: probiwon.com
- Может, ты ещё и в Невидимую Руку Рынка веруешь? - Зачем же веровать в то, что можно наблюдать непосредственно?
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January 29, 2011, 10:51:54 PM
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CPI apparently is "Consumer Price Index", but what is "BPP Index"?

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kiba
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January 29, 2011, 10:59:36 PM
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CPI apparently is "Consumer Price Index", but what is "BPP Index"?

Billion Price Project.

Stephen Gornick
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January 29, 2011, 11:02:45 PM
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CPI apparently is "Consumer Price Index", but what is "BPP Index"?

Quote
[The BPP measures] just the price changes in observed comparable items with a sample that is dynamically changing every day based on the entry and exit of products.

BPP leaves out important components that the CPI tries to include, such as housing services and technological improvements, though the ways that the CPI handles these issues are imperfect and controversial.

The BPP also excludes important items such as fuel, and makes no allowance for seasonal factors. On the other hand, those items covered by the BPP may be measured more accurately.

A particular advantage of BPP is that it's available daily and for countries for which other inflation measures may be particularly problematic.
  http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2010/11/billion_prices.html

em3rgentOrdr
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January 30, 2011, 10:06:50 AM
 #6

interesting.  This BPP seems more close to raw data...doesn't try to fudge stuff like CPI does...

"We will not find a solution to political problems in cryptography, but we can win a major battle in the arms race and gain a new territory of freedom for several years.

Governments are good at cutting off the heads of a centrally controlled networks, but pure P2P networks are holding their own."
Stephen Gornick
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February 14, 2011, 05:41:28 PM
 #7

Hmm... two weeks later, up even more.   Still the same trajectory:



http://bpp.mit.edu/daily-price-indexes/

Accelerating for a few others as well:

breandan81
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February 14, 2011, 06:51:14 PM
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Not particularly surprising, a dip in prices during the worst bit of the credit collapse, presumably in response to falling demands, and now significant inflation beginning due to the increase in money supply.  The fed balance sheet was almost tripled in the last few years, largely over a few months now being referred to as QE1, followed by the smaller ("only" 600 billion) QE2.  Since the US dollar is only backed by debt, consumers and investors fleeing debts, going bankrupt, or defaulting would have caused a massive drop in the money supply, by reducing the amount the base supply is multiplied through further borrowing.  As peoples credit recovers it's logical that this multiplier will creep back up to where it was and we'll get pretty horrible inflation for the next several years.  All this could be avoided with hard currency IMHO of course but this is the stuff that happens when you essentially back your currency with credit card debt.  Well, what's bad for fiat currency is good for bitcoin I guess.

Electronics and components at http://avrthing.com
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February 15, 2011, 12:17:35 AM
 #9

Good time to start selling wheelbarrows for btc to carry all the fiat around in ?
breandan81
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February 15, 2011, 12:26:13 AM
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Call me an optimist, I think we're still look at the probable scenario being a "lost decade" a la japan.

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hugolp
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February 15, 2011, 08:08:51 AM
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Call me an optimist, I think we're still look at the probable scenario being a "lost decade" a la japan.

The USA is not going to be so lucky as to get a lost decade like Japan.

Japan had exports, high rate of savings and a world economy that was not in recession. All those factors produced a carry trade that helped Japan money printing to not make prices rise (removing trade barriers with China and allowing cheap products into the country also helped).

The USA does not have any of those and its going to suffer an inflationary crisis, stagflation. People is going to look at the Japan lost decade with envy.
ShadowOfHarbringer
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February 15, 2011, 09:16:46 AM
 #12

Oil prices seem much more interesting to me:



Look at the mid-2008. See resemblance ?

USA economy is largely supported by cheap oil. If the oil ever goes again to over-130 dollars, there is very high probabilty of next crisis because it will suffocate the economy. If it goes over 140, then financial depression is almost inevitable.
And the oil is over $100 and still keeps rising...

Stephen Gornick
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February 17, 2011, 02:15:11 AM
 #13

Oil prices seem much more interesting to me:

And, of course, those increases in crude prices are making their way to the pump:
  http://www.gasbuddy.com/gb_retail_price_chart.aspx?time=6

torbank
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February 17, 2011, 06:23:41 AM
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Where can I trade Bitcoins for Crude oil?
MoonShadow
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February 17, 2011, 02:15:27 PM
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Where can I trade Bitcoins for Crude oil?

Nowhere.  Even Europeans have to buy oil inUS$ due to the Bretton Woods Treaty.  The Russians & Chinese would buy/sell oil in gold or their own currencies in a heartbeat if that wouldn't get them sideways with the US fed.

"The powers of financial capitalism had another far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent meetings and conferences. The apex of the systems was to be the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world's central banks which were themselves private corporations. Each central bank...sought to dominate its government by its ability to control Treasury loans, to manipulate foreign exchanges, to influence the level of economic activity in the country, and to influence cooperative politicians by subsequent economic rewards in the business world."

- Carroll Quigley, CFR member, mentor to Bill Clinton, from 'Tragedy And Hope'
brunner
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February 19, 2011, 05:56:09 PM
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Nowhere.  Even Europeans have to buy oil inUS$ due to the Bretton Woods Treaty.  The Russians & Chinese would buy/sell oil in gold or their own currencies in a heartbeat if that wouldn't get them sideways with the US fed.

Exactly.  Saddam Hussein tried to start an oil exchange that wasn't denominated in USD, and then he was taken out of power by the US government.

Iran started saying they were going to do the same thing, and again we heard the war drums beat again.

The US Government is pretty clear on their stance about this...
kiba
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February 19, 2011, 06:00:36 PM
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Exactly.  Saddam Hussein tried to start an oil exchange that wasn't denominated in USD, and then he was taken out of power by the US government.

Iran started saying they were going to do the same thing, and again we heard the war drums beat again.

The US Government is pretty clear on their stance about this...

Citation needed.

ShadowOfHarbringer
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February 19, 2011, 07:37:22 PM
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Exactly.  Saddam Hussein tried to start an oil exchange that wasn't denominated in USD, and then he was taken out of power by the US government.

Iran started saying they were going to do the same thing, and again we heard the war drums beat again.

The US Government is pretty clear on their stance about this...

Citation needed.



Ceiling cat provides:

http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,998512,00.html
http://www.globalresearch.ca/articles/CLA410A.html
http://www.ratical.org/ratville/CAH/RRiraqWar.html
http://www.google.pl/search?hl=en&q=saddam+hussein+oil+euro+exchange

Selling oil for dollar and for dollar only is the only thing, that is keeping that currency from hyperinflating. Question is, how long can this trick work ?

Also, when will USA will attack Iran ? A month/week before opening of Euro-based oil exchange. Destruction of dollar = destruction of current US economy. They can't let it happen.

barbarousrelic
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February 20, 2011, 01:22:06 AM
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Where can I trade Bitcoins for Crude oil?

Nowhere.  Even Europeans have to buy oil inUS$ due to the Bretton Woods Treaty.  The Russians & Chinese would buy/sell oil in gold or their own currencies in a heartbeat if that wouldn't get them sideways with the US fed.
Weren't the Bretton Woods agreements pretty much finished when Nixon closed the gold window in 1971?

Do not waste your time debating whether Bitcoin can work. It does work.

"Early adopters will profit" is not a sufficient condition to classify something as a pyramid or Ponzi scheme. If it was, Apple and Microsoft stock are Ponzi schemes.

There is no such thing as "market manipulation." There is only buying and selling.
ribuck
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February 20, 2011, 10:00:31 AM
 #20

Selling oil for dollar and for dollar only is the only thing, that is keeping that currency from hyperinflating.
I hear this all the time, but I don't understand it.

There's a free exchange market between dollars and Euros. So if Iran sells oil for dollars and immediately exchanges those for Euros, how is that any different from Iran selling oil for Euros directly? (Apart from the currency exchange costs, of course).
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