Sniff ... do you smell smoke?

[Stephen Gornick]

The Billion Prices Project is an academic initiative that collects prices from hundreds of online retailers around the world on a daily basis to conduct economic research.

Above CPI:
http://bpp.mit.edu/daily-price-indexes/?country=USA
http://bpp.mit.edu/daily-price-indexes/?country=FRANCE
http://bpp.mit.edu/daily-price-indexes/?country=RUSSIA
http://bpp.mit.edu/daily-price-indexes/?country=ITALY
http://bpp.mit.edu/daily-price-indexes/?country=ARGENTINA
http://bpp.mit.edu/daily-price-indexes/?country=AUSTRALIA
http://bpp.mit.edu/daily-price-indexes/?country=VENEZUELA
http://bpp.mit.edu/daily-price-indexes/?country=COLOMBIA

At or below:
http://bpp.mit.edu/daily-price-indexes/?country=BRAZIL
http://bpp.mit.edu/daily-price-indexes/?country=TURKEY

[bitcoinex]

very interesting

[Fractality]

CPI apparently is "Consumer Price Index", but what is "BPP Index"?

[kiba]

CPI apparently is "Consumer Price Index", but what is "BPP Index"?

Billion Price Project.

[Stephen Gornick]

CPI apparently is "Consumer Price Index", but what is "BPP Index"?

[The BPP measures] just the price changes in observed comparable items with a sample that is dynamically changing every day based on the entry and exit of products.

BPP leaves out important components that the CPI tries to include, such as housing services and technological improvements, though the ways that the CPI handles these issues are imperfect and controversial.

The BPP also excludes important items such as fuel, and makes no allowance for seasonal factors. On the other hand, those items covered by the BPP may be measured more accurately.

A particular advantage of BPP is that it's available daily and for countries for which other inflation measures may be particularly problematic.

  http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2010/11/billion_prices.html

[em3rgentOrdr]

interesting.  This BPP seems more close to raw data...doesn't try to fudge stuff like CPI does...

[Stephen Gornick]

Hmm... two weeks later, up even more.   Still the same trajectory:



http://bpp.mit.edu/daily-price-indexes/

Accelerating for a few others as well:

• http://bpp.mit.edu/daily-price-indexes/russia/
• http://bpp.mit.edu/daily-price-indexes/?country=FRANCE
• http://bpp.mit.edu/daily-price-indexes/?country=AUSTRALIA

[breandan81]

Not particularly surprising, a dip in prices during the worst bit of the credit collapse, presumably in response to falling demands, and now significant inflation beginning due to the increase in money supply.  The fed balance sheet was almost tripled in the last few years, largely over a few months now being referred to as QE1, followed by the smaller ("only" 600 billion) QE2.  Since the US dollar is only backed by debt, consumers and investors fleeing debts, going bankrupt, or defaulting would have caused a massive drop in the money supply, by reducing the amount the base supply is multiplied through further borrowing.  As peoples credit recovers it's logical that this multiplier will creep back up to where it was and we'll get pretty horrible inflation for the next several years.  All this could be avoided with hard currency IMHO of course but this is the stuff that happens when you essentially back your currency with credit card debt.  Well, what's bad for fiat currency is good for bitcoin I guess.

[Anonymous]

Good time to start selling wheelbarrows for btc to carry all the fiat around in ?

[breandan81]

Call me an optimist, I think we're still look at the probable scenario being a "lost decade" a la japan.

[hugolp]

Call me an optimist, I think we're still look at the probable scenario being a "lost decade" a la japan.

The USA is not going to be so lucky as to get a lost decade like Japan.

Japan had exports, high rate of savings and a world economy that was not in recession. All those factors produced a carry trade that helped Japan money printing to not make prices rise (removing trade barriers with China and allowing cheap products into the country also helped).

The USA does not have any of those and its going to suffer an inflationary crisis, stagflation. People is going to look at the Japan lost decade with envy.

[ShadowOfHarbringer]

Oil prices seem much more interesting to me:



Look at the mid-2008. See resemblance ?

USA economy is largely supported by cheap oil. If the oil ever goes again to over-130 dollars, there is very high probabilty of next crisis because it will suffocate the economy. If it goes over 140, then financial depression is almost inevitable.
And the oil is over $100 and still keeps rising...

[Stephen Gornick]

Oil prices seem much more interesting to me:

And, of course, those increases in crude prices are making their way to the pump:
  http://www.gasbuddy.com/gb_retail_price_chart.aspx?time=6

[torbank]

Where can I trade Bitcoins for Crude oil?

[MoonShadow]

Where can I trade Bitcoins for Crude oil?

Nowhere.  Even Europeans have to buy oil inUS$ due to the Bretton Woods Treaty.  The Russians & Chinese would buy/sell oil in gold or their own currencies in a heartbeat if that wouldn't get them sideways with the US fed.

[brunner]

Nowhere.  Even Europeans have to buy oil inUS$ due to the Bretton Woods Treaty.  The Russians & Chinese would buy/sell oil in gold or their own currencies in a heartbeat if that wouldn't get them sideways with the US fed.

Exactly.  Saddam Hussein tried to start an oil exchange that wasn't denominated in USD, and then he was taken out of power by the US government.

Iran started saying they were going to do the same thing, and again we heard the war drums beat again.

The US Government is pretty clear on their stance about this...

[kiba]

Exactly.  Saddam Hussein tried to start an oil exchange that wasn't denominated in USD, and then he was taken out of power by the US government.

Iran started saying they were going to do the same thing, and again we heard the war drums beat again.

The US Government is pretty clear on their stance about this...

Citation needed.

[ShadowOfHarbringer]

Exactly.  Saddam Hussein tried to start an oil exchange that wasn't denominated in USD, and then he was taken out of power by the US government.

Iran started saying they were going to do the same thing, and again we heard the war drums beat again.

The US Government is pretty clear on their stance about this...

Citation needed.

Ceiling cat provides:

http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,998512,00.html
http://www.globalresearch.ca/articles/CLA410A.html
http://www.ratical.org/ratville/CAH/RRiraqWar.html
http://www.google.pl/search?hl=en&q=saddam+hussein+oil+euro+exchange

Selling oil for dollar and for dollar only is the only thing, that is keeping that currency from hyperinflating. Question is, how long can this trick work ?

Also, when will USA will attack Iran ? A month/week before opening of Euro-based oil exchange. Destruction of dollar = destruction of current US economy. They can't let it happen.

[barbarousrelic]

Where can I trade Bitcoins for Crude oil?

Nowhere.  Even Europeans have to buy oil inUS$ due to the Bretton Woods Treaty.  The Russians & Chinese would buy/sell oil in gold or their own currencies in a heartbeat if that wouldn't get them sideways with the US fed.

Weren't the Bretton Woods agreements pretty much finished when Nixon closed the gold window in 1971?

[ribuck]

Selling oil for dollar and for dollar only is the only thing, that is keeping that currency from hyperinflating.

I hear this all the time, but I don't understand it.

There's a free exchange market between dollars and Euros. So if Iran sells oil for dollars and immediately exchanges those for Euros, how is that any different from Iran selling oil for Euros directly? (Apart from the currency exchange costs, of course).