Call the top

[geofflosophy]

I think this price increase will be tested, and we will see a floor at around $130 on bitstamp. I sold at just under $150 and just over $166, and I'll be looking to buy back in the $130-135 range within the next week. I hope I'm not wrong about this, I feel kind of exposed right now having sold off almost all of my hot wallet/liquid coins. It will be a very humbling speculatory experience for me if the price breaks $200 on bitstamp and doesn't come back down.

it won't go back.

What's your reasoning behind this?

[1714133755]

1714133755

[1714133755]

1714133755

[1714133755]

1714133755

[wobber]

Let me rephrase: if we go beyond 200, there are slight chances to go down.

Everyone wants it up in the sky, miners had almost no profit at current prices, MtGox is not the monopoly anymore. This is just the spark, wait until it really ignites.

[rpietila]

1890$

You children have no vision! Damn, I am typing this sub 2k$ number and think: "I am getting rather pessimistic without any good reason to be, lately"

The upper bound for the value of 1 BTC in this year's USD is 1-5 million (given finite earth, etcetc,). Realistic positive long term scenario is 300k. If the whole crypto or BTC fails in some unforeseen way, it can be worth so little that it is impractical to trade.

 Let's put the possibilities in log scale (price of BTC in current USD):

10^7 = 10 million. Total value of bitcoins would be on par with total value of the Earth. This is not possible and this scenario is therefore utopistic.

10^6 = 1 million. All bitcoins would be about as valuable as the M1 monetary stock of a top-notch fiat currency such as the USD. This is in the realm of possibility, but clearly the most positive scenario imaginable, and therefore unlikely.

10^5 = 100 000. Bitcoins would be more valuable than all the silver ever mined, but less valuable than all the gold, and much less valuable than many fiat currencies of today (total value about 1000 billion).

10^4 = 10 000. This will be reached ??

10^3 = 1000. This will be reached ??

10^2 = 100. This was reached 4/2013.

10^1 = 10. This was reached in 6/2011.

10^0 = 1. This was reached in 2/2011.

10^-1 = 0.1. Minimum value that bitcoin has ever traded in an exchange. At that time there were no actual uses for the currency.

10^-2 = 0.01. This would render all the bitcoin economy worth about 100,000 USD. As this value is spread between millions of users, nobody has a big enough stock to have any incentive to care about bitcoin, and the exchanges and eventually even the network would likely grind to a halt. This is therefore an impossible long term scenario. Altcoins die if they cannot overcome this barrier or fall through it.

The market is very volatile because market participants need to assess probabilities to scenarios, which are not close to each other in outcome. In contrast to stock market, where there are reasonable bounds as to what a certain stock's value might be, with bitcoin there are only absolute bounds, 8 orders of magnitude from each other. If the market would reach consensus that in 1% probability, bitcoin's value is 1 million (and 99% probability it is zero), the price would explode to the upside as any price short of $10000 per bitcoin is a bargain with positive expected value.

Bitcoin is not in a bubble but in a genuine price discovery phase. Not longer than a few hours ago, I told that I expect bitcoin to rise to 4 digits before next summer. My friend's guess was $15. Both are preparing accordingly.

[geofflosophy]

1890$

You children have no vision! Damn, I am typing this sub 2k$ number and think: "I am getting rather pessimistic without any good reason to be, lately"

The upper bound for the value of 1 BTC in this year's USD is 1-5 million (given finite earth, etcetc,). Realistic positive long term scenario is 300k. If the whole crypto or BTC fails in some unforeseen way, it can be worth so little that it is impractical to trade.

 Let's put the possibilities in log scale (price of BTC in current USD):

10^7 = 10 million. Total value of bitcoins would be on par with total value of the Earth. This is not possible and this scenario is therefore utopistic.

10^6 = 1 million. All bitcoins would be about as valuable as the M1 monetary stock of a top-notch fiat currency such as the USD. This is in the realm of possibility, but clearly the most positive scenario imaginable, and therefore unlikely.

10^5 = 100 000. Bitcoins would be more valuable than all the silver ever mined, but less valuable than all the gold, and much less valuable than many fiat currencies of today (total value about 1000 billion).

10^4 = 10 000. This will be reached ??

10^3 = 1000. This will be reached ??

10^2 = 100. This was reached 4/2013.

10^1 = 10. This was reached in 6/2011.

10^0 = 1. This was reached in 2/2011.

10^-1 = 0.1. Minimum value that bitcoin has ever traded in an exchange. At that time there were no actual uses for the currency.

10^-2 = 0.01. This would render all the bitcoin economy worth about 100,000 USD. As this value is spread between millions of users, nobody has a big enough stock to have any incentive to care about bitcoin, and the exchanges and eventually even the network would likely grind to a halt. This is therefore an impossible long term scenario. Altcoins die if they cannot overcome this barrier or fall through it.

The market is very volatile because market participants need to assess probabilities to scenarios, which are not close to each other in outcome. In contrast to stock market, where there are reasonable bounds as to what a certain stock's value might be, with bitcoin there are only absolute bounds, 8 orders of magnitude from each other. If the market would reach consensus that in 1% probability, bitcoin's value is 1 million (and 99% probability it is zero), the price would explode to the upside as any price short of $10000 per bitcoin is a bargain with positive expected value.

Bitcoin is not in a bubble but in a genuine price discovery phase. Not longer than a few hours ago, I told that I expect bitcoin to rise to 4 digits before next summer. My friend's guess was $15. Both are preparing accordingly.

I think this analysis is fantastic long term.

[zeroday]

I think this analysis is fantastic long term.

Yes, if you think 5 years is long term.

[geofflosophy]

Let me rephrase: if we go beyond 200, there are slight chances to go down.

Everyone wants it up in the sky, miners had almost no profit at current prices, MtGox is not the monopoly anymore. This is just the spark, wait until it really ignites.

Holders and sellers want it in the sky, and I see it there for sure, but I don't think it's realistic to expect the price increase that we're seeing right now without somewhat of a bumpy ride along the way. All of last week Bitstamp was fighting a $130 ceiling, do we really think it blasted through seamlessly and permanently without any possibility of backtrack?

[geofflosophy]

I think this analysis is fantastic long term.

Yes, if you think 5 years is long term.

Very good point. I was thinking of 5 years as long term, but I should probably relabel as medium. I'm really too focused super short term for the moment, like the next week. I'm a 1 week bear right now.

[waxwing]

I think this price increase will be tested, and we will see a floor at around $130 on bitstamp. I sold at just under $150 and just over $166, and I'll be looking to buy back in the $130-135 range within the next week. I hope I'm not wrong about this, I feel kind of exposed right now having sold off almost all of my hot wallet/liquid coins. It will be a very humbling speculatory experience for me if the price breaks $200 on bitstamp and doesn't come back down.

Quoted from the investment classic "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" written in the early 20th C by a famous speculator called Jesse Livermore:

“It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets. I've known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine--that is, they made no real money out of it. Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon.”

I think it was a long step forward in my trading education when I realized at last that when old Mr. Partridge kept on telling other customers, “Well, you know this is a bull market!” he really meant to tell them that the big money was not in the individual fluctuations but in the main movements that is, not in reading the tape but in sizing up the entire market and its trend. The market does not beat them. They beat themselves, because though they have brains they cannot sit tight. Old Turkey was dead right in doing and saying what he did. He had not only the courage of his convictions but also the intelligence and patience to sit tight. Disregarding the big swing and trying to jump in and out was fatal to me. Nobody can catch all the fluctuations. In a bull market the game is to buy and hold until you believe the bull market is near its end.

These quotes are about "bull markets". The right way to think of a bull market is just a case where there is a genuine signal below the noise: something truly has a very large value, and the day to day news stories and flow of buying and selling isn't really relevant.
Bitcoin, arguably, has this property more than any stock in history, more than IBM or Google or Berkshire Hathaway.
Learn how to sit tight. It is not 1% as easy as it sounds.

[Zaih]

The top definitely isn't there yet... Keep rolling fella's.

[Nemo1024]

Waxwing's quotes and comments should be sticky'ed!

Vladimir, I understand now what you wrote earlier on some other thread, that it does not matter if we buy now at 100 or 200 (don't remember the exact figures you used, but that's not important).

Edit: but it's oh so tempting to sell at, say, 169 and buy back at 164 (provided you manage to call each mini-wave).

[BCB]

$300 by Year End.

[DoomDumas]

Between 1200 and 2400

[crazynoggin]

I've been thinking this rally, there will be a top of possibly $200-210 before we see it start to fall if it hasn't begun its drop already.

[Dhuum]

~224

[zoinky]

440-470

[Ashitank]

The top definitely isn't there yet... Keep rolling fella's.

True !

People are still stuck in Limitation mentality , get out of it , No top , keep rolling

[fattypig]

$160..

[Zaih]

$160..

What u doin brah

[omehenk]

$160..

What u doin brah

I Rofl....good one m8   

[rpietila]

It is possible that we have seen the top for 2013! There is a resistance in $166 and most exchanges are struggling to overcome it. The most bullish scenario imo would be to spend 2 weeks here and then blast on towards ATH.