Technological unemployment is (almost) here

[giantdragon]

If it weren't for these air travel would have improved and gotten cheaper over the past 30 years, instead it is stagnant.

Say honestly, would you fly with ultra-cheap deregulated free-market Kamikaze Airlines ?! 

[giantdragon]

Another interesting chart to think about (look at the right side)!

[henryreardon]

I'm very much a capitalist and libertarian, but how will people handle rioting in the streets from the unemployed?

If one can get away with working only 1-2 hours/day, and relax the rest of the day, why would he riot?  If capitalism and the free market are allowed to work their magic unadulterated by government ineptitude, this would be the end result -- an incredibly high Standard of Living:Work ratio.

[henryreardon]

If it weren't for these air travel would have improved and gotten cheaper over the past 30 years, instead it is stagnant.

Say honestly, would you fly with ultra-cheap deregulated free-market Kamikaze Airlines ?! 

I think your question is tongue in cheek, but my answer is yes.  Because if in my hypothetical laissez faire world Kamikaze Airlines got funded, started up, instilled faith in people, got customers, flew safely consistently, got better, faster, and cheaper -- if it were able to do all that, it means that it had been austerely vetted by the free market every step of the way, and the standards of the people are real, meaningful, they vote with their pocketbook; they are not standards by a committee of bureaucrats.  So it would have proven itself an airline worthy of my business, despite a questionable name.

Take a look at a few industries/entities with heavy government intervention and "regulation" in the name of safety and consumer protection:  airlines, healthcare, USPS, FDA, USPTO -- all paragons of inefficiency and ineptitude, all stagnant for decades, all wasting billions of taxpayer dollars.  For at least one of these examples we have a private sector analogue... Fedex.  You tell me -- would you rather send something of value via Fedex or USPS?

This so called "regulation" serves no purpose other than to line the pockets of politicians, and the hidden costs to society in the form of slowed innovation and progress are 1000 times greater than that... e.g. costly, time-consuming, and unpleasant air travel, the healthy subsidizing the obese, lost mail and rude counter service, delayed life saving drugs and devices, and barriers to entry for would-be innovators and inventors.

[deisik]

Another form of socialism is planned economy, which is only one sustainable model for some nations that for the unknown reason cannot successfully live in the market conditions. It may be some genetic traits, mentality etc but always when you try to establish laissez-faire policies here, these countries return to the pre-modern level. Before USSR collapse some African countries had a planned economy and rather high quality life, but now they are fully impoverished. Without oil and gas revenues Russia also would be at the level of Sierra Leone now.

Though I agree with what your post on the whole, just a warning. When making comparisons, check what you are comparing against. Sierra Leone is among the top ten diamond producing nations and a major producer of gem-quality diamonds, also rich in other minerals. Thus being rich in natural resources doesn't guarantee the country can't be impoverished...

[Rassah]

Secondly, have you noticed labor force participation leveled off last years even in absolute numbers (population continued to grow nevertheless)?

Two important things to note about the figures you quote

• The growth in labor force stopped in 2007 - this appears to be unprecedented in the data
• The labor force is measured in absolute numbers - a much more meaningful benchmark is the % participation rate

Most of the growth in participation rate in the last 60 years has come from bringing women into the workforce. That reversed to a massive extent, at least in the USA, in 2007, and hasn't recovered.

Uh, yeah, we had a severe global economic collapse, followed by increased regulations, capital seizures, and austerity measures. We didn't just invent "technlogy" in 2000's. What we did have is a huge increase in outsourcing.
And sure, women entered the workforce in USA, and maybe in Europe, in 1950's, but women have been in the workforce pretty much constantly in USSR and many other parts world through the 1900's and prior.

[deed02392]

It seems we're barreling toward socialism, or socialism.  If those are our two options, I'm rooting for socialism; it seems capitalism doesn't function right when you have a people without labor, since the owners of capital have no way of selling their products to people who aren't working.  Rather, if people mutually agreed to work the land for their own benefit (in this case, agreed that the machines should do it), they can get the basic necessities they need and continue to work (in the fields machines can't automate, of course, unless A.I. becomes a real thing) to improve their condition.

Which is my hang-up; I can't picture a world without money, for this implies a world in which labor is not necessary, ergo a store of one's work is no longer a necessity.  This is not because I believe it is impossible, but because it is so abstract from the world as we know it that I would need a complete understanding of the world as it is just to see one that completely isn't.

But we're left with a problem: what if you don't want to be some kind of scientist or creative?  Perhaps the scientists and the creatives still need human labor to assist them, and can be paid for doing that; since all the necessary work is handled by the perfect slaves and thus, all items necessary to life are essentially very inexpensive and high quality, it seems a person can still make a great living while working few hours; socialism normally has this effect but the machines help tremendously.  After all, the original machines were the natural driving forces behind agriculture some 8k years ago, allowing people to not only feed themselves but to feed others.  Now we're to the point where machines can potentially completely replace the need for a human laborer.  The only difference with all our technological advances, the surplus created by machine tends to get sucked away to whomever owns the means of production, thus making the wealthy class possible at all.

And then there's the RBE conceived by Jacque Fresco which I'm not entirely sure about.

Anyway, I don't see either of the listed options as permanent solutions; one is bound to break when people don't want to be taxed to their eyeballs, the other has proven in the past to be troublesome, and not to mention how much limited freedom curtails in being unable to decide for oneself what the self needs and doesn't.

We'll probably end up bored of this planet and start exploring space and beyond?

[giantdragon]

But, can you really automate neurosurgery/heart surgery in the next year?

Studying neurosurgery takes >10 years and hundreds thousands USD, therefore even theoretical possibility to automate this profession during now-enrolling students' lifespan (next 40-50 years) can have significant effect!

[deisik]

Lawyers: obsolete     Machine learning algorithms going through all the law books on the planet analyzing all case histories, looking for all viable avenues.
Doctors: obsolete      Watson supercomputer deployed across the planet.
Scientists: obsolete    Automated research centers, slicing dicing staining, robotic probes roaming the planet.
Police: obsolete         robots incapable of corruption patrolling the streets, running on machine algorithms to predict crime before it happens.
Teachers:obsolete     Online pre programmed courses teaching people whatever they wish to learn.
Military:obsolete       Robots control the battlefield stronger faster smarter, incapable of PTSD, emotionless cold machines assessing and dolling out the     appropriate             response to a threat.
Cooks:obsolete         Automated machinery designed to cook any meal you like is already available.
Government:obsolete The internet can already bring about world wide direct democracy.
Programmers:obsolete Machine learning algorithms and A.I. systems with neural chips on neural networks constructing any program required.

People:obsolete

Skynet is patiently waiting...

[temp1029]

Liberals focus a lot on "employment", but they miss the point:  The goal is in fact to work as little as possible, yet reap the highest rewards -- the standard of living:work ratio.  And that today in the USA is the highest it has ever been anywhere in the history of the world.  Government subsidies -- minimum wage, welfare, food stamps, etc. -- they give fish rather than teach to fish -- and thus distort incentives and the market, and ultimately lead to a lower SOL:work ratio.

I think most people in this thread see only one (and the most horrible) form of socialism - welfare state, which now unfortunately dominates in most EU countries and being increasingly pushed in the US. Its formula is very simple: rob (tax) wealthy - give to idlers! Of course in the long run it cannot lead to any prosperity!

Another form of socialism is planned economy, which is only one sustainable model for some nations that for the unknown reason cannot successfully live in the market conditions. It may be some genetic traits, mentality etc but always when you try to establish laissez-faire policies here, these countries return to the pre-modern level. Before USSR collapse some African countries had a planned economy and rather high quality life, but now they are fully impoverished. Without oil and gas revenues Russia also would be at the level of Sierra Leone now.

Also note that technology advance and automation will continuously reduce number of people belonging to the "creative elite" class in free market, winner-takes-it-all will become more and more widespread.

Unfortunately a planned economy can't work.  If you plan the entire thing and the smallest detail doesn't line up with "the plan" then how does the rest of the plan adjust?  This was tried a lot in the USSR (5-year plans) but always failed.  Additionally, I'm not sure how you plan an economy without everyone being on welfare (i.e. provided for by the government).  Wouldn't their wages, or alternatively their means of subsistence, need to be part of the plan?

I would like to see some examples of the African countries you indicated had a high standard of living while the USSR was in existence.  I suspect the state they are in now is either a direct result of involvement with the USSR (and the fallout from its collapse) or events since then have caused the issues and true "laissez-faire policies" were never really tried.  I would be thrilled if you could prove me wrong on that.

[Murwa]

If one can get away with working only 1-2 hours/day, and relax the rest of the day, why would he riot?  If capitalism and the free market are allowed to work their magic unadulterated by government ineptitude, this would be the end result -- an incredibly high Standard of Living:Work ratio.

Oh another free-market delusion.

Sorry capitalism require to work longer hours !!!

If there is much more supply of labor then demand  ( due to highly advanced technology , no need for unskilled workers etc. )there is always someone that will be willing to work longer hours for the same pay because he is forced to via reality of the system ( no wage = starvation )

And thus the wage collapse happens ( which is exactly what is going for like 30 years or so in developed countries ). More supply of labour then demand due to globalisation and women enetring workforce = lower real wages , longer hours , more unemployment etc and stupid economy aka capitalism collapse

This is how market actually work. It is a cruel world because it is competition based , not some fluffy wonderland

[Murwa]

Hmm, don't know where you got your statistics from, but these say otherwise. It's a chart of total global labor force, employment, and unemployment from 1948 to present

First. Learn to read :
I wrote
All global statistics support my point of view. Since last 30 years or so ( depending on the country ). Not since 1948.

Second your statistic is not representative since it is in abolute numbers.

Global population 1980 : 4,435 billion
Global population 2013 : >7 billion

57% increase.

workforce 1980 : 100 000
workforce 2013 : 140 000

40% increase

Beside your data has no source attached and it seems it is not what you suggested it is. There is nowhere word global written on it

Another thing it looks like your data sucks. How the hell labor force is constant since the last 8 years ( even dropping ) , Global population increased like 500 millions or so.
You dont even understand what this data represents , no wonder you have no clue.

Note that technology has been booming, jobs have been getting replaced, population has been increasing, and yet unemployment has remained fairly constant. So, jobs replaced by technology were apparently being replaced by new jobs.

Nope , you don't understand the data you presented.
And some of the jobs were replaced perhaps not all.

And the only thing you need to have a problem is when jobs disparaging faster then they are created ( which is now )

[Murwa]

Unfortunately a planned economy can't work.  If you plan the entire thing and the smallest detail doesn't line up with "the plan" then how does the rest of the plan adjust?  This was tried a lot in the USSR (5-year plans) but always failed.  Additionally, I'm not sure how you plan an economy without everyone being on welfare (i.e. provided for by the government).  Wouldn't their wages, or alternatively their means of subsistence, need to be part of the plan?

Planned economy is not the future.

Production on demand is. Just like with a 3d printer , you dont central-plan what comes out of it, but instead you have a direct access to the means of production.

[kwilliams]

Planned economy = central command economy (as opposed to market which distributes decision power to all participants)

People are competitive by nature. Central planning brings most alpha-types to the center. There they consolidate power and draw disproportionate benefits for themselves and their support groups. Ideas threatening the status quo are outlawed. Security and stability are emphasized. Large security apparatus is built to protect the state.

Eventually central planers find ways to chose & groom their successors, which usually turn to be next in kin. Gradually a narrative develops praising the elite for its unique skills & wisdom. An aristocracy is born.

[deed02392]

Why is there no 'false dilemma' poll option? I think what the 2nd or 3rd poster said is right - all automation does is make manufacturing cheaper, which only means the product gets cheaper for those who get their jobs displaced.

[Murwa]

Why is there no 'false dilemma' poll option? I think what the 2nd or 3rd poster said is right - all automation does is make manufacturing cheaper, which only means the product gets cheaper for those who get their jobs displaced.

Basic math fail detected. I guess you are just another free-marketer.

It doesn't matter how things are cheap when your income is zero. Zero divided by any number no matter how small still gives zero.

[jdbtracker]

There's definitely a lot that can be automated like cooking and teaching. These are relatively simple things. But, can you really automate neurosurgery/heart surgery in the next year?

It is possible; There are surgery simulators out there. So if we took Surgeon Simulator 2013 and upgraded it to have easier controls, more intuitive controls with very high detail simulations of surgery we could, by using machine learning, learn all the necessities of surgery from average users. Yes I know sounds crazy, but as more people successfully complete the surgery with a A.I. observing the best players it can learn what to do and by observing the unsuccessful players it will learn what not to do.

IN this way all players become genetic algorithms for the system, experimenting and learning on their own till they perfect their skills at the game, Open sourcing machine learning by using humans to do the learning for it. Plus with a detailed knowledge of all medical texts in all languages it can further improve itself... If it can successfully complete a perfect simulation, I think the A.I will be ready for it's first real surgery.

[deisik]

There's definitely a lot that can be automated like cooking and teaching. These are relatively simple things. But, can you really automate neurosurgery/heart surgery in the next year?

It is possible; There are surgery simulators out there. So if we took Surgeon Simulator 2013 and upgraded it to have easier controls, more intuitive controls with very high detail simulations of surgery we could, by using machine learning, learn all the necessities of surgery from average users. Yes I know sounds crazy, but as more people successfully complete the surgery with a A.I. observing the best players it can learn what to do and by observing the unsuccessful players it will learn what not to do.

I think it will be easier and more expedient to design nanobots that would make repairs (in the way natural healing occurs) without actual surgery than build a robot able to carry out neurosurgery...

[Ekaros]

There's definitely a lot that can be automated like cooking and teaching. These are relatively simple things. But, can you really automate neurosurgery/heart surgery in the next year?

It is possible; There are surgery simulators out there. So if we took Surgeon Simulator 2013 and upgraded it to have easier controls, more intuitive controls with very high detail simulations of surgery we could, by using machine learning, learn all the necessities of surgery from average users. Yes I know sounds crazy, but as more people successfully complete the surgery with a A.I. observing the best players it can learn what to do and by observing the unsuccessful players it will learn what not to do.

I think it will be easier and more expedient to design nanobots that would make repairs (in the way natural healing occurs) without actual surgery than build a robot able to carry out neurosurgery...

Truth is that the modern surgery methods sometimes already use remote control. So we really aren't that faraway from pure robots. Automating minimaly invasive techniques shouldn't be too complex problem.

[godislove]

It's getting harder and harder for people to pass the image challenges on the internet.   Soon, we won't be able to pass the intelligence challenges either.  I wonder if Turing made a prediction as to when the Turing test would be passed.

Time magazine has an amazing article right up this thread's alley.

A telemarketer who denies she's an artificial intelligence algorithm:

http://newsfeed.time.com/2013/12/10/meet-the-robot-telemarketer-who-denies-shes-a-robot