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Question: What solution would you prefer?
Unconditional income (extremely high taxation inevitable) - 174 (77.3%)
Planned economy (with full employment provided by state) - 51 (22.7%)
Total Voters: 225

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Author Topic: Technological unemployment is (almost) here  (Read 88222 times)
deisik
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April 26, 2014, 04:40:18 PM
 #601

And what does any of this have to do with so-called "technological unemployment" lol?

War is the ultimate remedy for the so-called "technological unemployment"... Cool

giantdragon (OP)
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July 08, 2014, 09:35:52 PM
 #602

Finnish prime minister blamed Apple for loss of jobs in the country!

http://news.yahoo.com/steve-jobs-took-jobs-says-finnish-prime-minister-134345001.html
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July 08, 2014, 09:50:28 PM
 #603

And what does any of this have to do with so-called "technological unemployment" lol?

War is the ultimate remedy for the so-called "technological unemployment"... Cool

Surplus of the population normally join the military and police force. To reduce the "maintenance cost" of the army, the state usually fight a country they want to take over (resources) and at the same time reduce the armed force in a more political correct method.
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July 09, 2014, 01:28:58 AM
 #604

Most of you people arguing about this frankly won't be alive to see any of this happen (it won't even be in your grandchildrens' lifetimes) so I'm not sure what all the fuss is about.
Don't forget that technology advances by an exponential curve, so it can happen much sooner than you think!

This is true.  Until the second industrial revolution of the 1870s-1890s, mankind went through a quasi-stagnation of sorts since the collapse of Western Rome.



They had rudimentary computers and steam engines in Ancient Greece but nothing came out of it for over 2000 years.  A sword was a sword for thousands of years.  Knowledge like Damascus Steel and the Japanese Katana actually got lost.

  The Arquebuse was introduced in the 1480s and wasn't really outclassed until the Needle rifle which came 400 years later.  In agriculture, the scythe was invented in 500 BC and it was still being used as the principle agriculture implement until mechanization of farm equipment became common place in the 1900s.  Countless examples.


It may as well be another 2000 years until we get things like space colonization, faster than light, teleportation, et cetera.  Much like ancient Rome and Greece, we have societal factors at work which are largely inhibiting technological progress.



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July 09, 2014, 05:56:56 AM
 #605

How many of you have traveled to developing countries? Most of the world is not sitting in the cubical playing armchair philosopher. They're raising families and focusing on the necessities. And as unbelievable as it may be from our first world pedestal a lot of them are very happy with their simple lives.

I grew up in the American countryside. Some of my best friends still hunt and farm for their meat and eggs, and grow vegetable gardens for their vegetables. They'll spend some mornings on their boats fishing... while taking calls and photos on their iPhone.

Technological efficiency in free market capitalism will make many of our current jobs obsolete, but people will keep finding ways to survive, create, and enjoy their life. I don't believe socialism is the answer to "How will the masses get their Cornflakes?"
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July 09, 2014, 09:36:50 AM
 #606

How many of you have traveled to developing countries? Most of the world is not sitting in the cubical playing armchair philosopher. They're raising families and focusing on the necessities. And as unbelievable as it may be from our first world pedestal a lot of them are very happy with their simple lives.

I grew up in the American countryside. Some of my best friends still hunt and farm for their meat and eggs, and grow vegetable gardens for their vegetables. They'll spend some mornings on their boats fishing... while taking calls and photos on their iPhone.

Technological efficiency in free market capitalism will make many of our current jobs obsolete, but people will keep finding ways to survive, create, and enjoy their life. I don't believe socialism is the answer to "How will the masses get their Cornflakes?"

Sound like good and simple life. Wish I have access to such location and friends.
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July 09, 2014, 05:17:43 PM
 #607

Karl Marx mentioned this in his communist manifesto. The people who control production will eventually owned everything.
Nicolas Dorier
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July 09, 2014, 06:58:57 PM
 #608

State planning ?
Don't think they can get the power to prevent people from trading. Specially not with Internet and Bitcoin in place.

By the way, I am a programmer and if comes a day with jobless people come to me with pitchfork and taxes, I'll get out along with my only tool, my head, making money elsewhere. (And storing my money in Bitcoin so they can't seize)
Or maybe I'll just close myself in a bunker, hoping they don't cut off my internet connection... (I'm already used to that Cheesy)

Quote
Karl Marx mentioned this in his communist manifesto. The people who control production will eventually owned everything.
What is the difference between a company that owns everything and a government that does so ?  Nothing from my point of view as long as my freedom is concerned, none is more legit than the other.
The difference is maybe that the government will turn my citizen against each other by using denouncement and laws.

As the concentration of power in the hand of few is not proved in a free market (quote me one company that ever got enough capital for mass scale coercion), it has been already been proved in democratic (and non democratic) government.

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giantdragon (OP)
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July 09, 2014, 07:13:24 PM
 #609

Some of my best friends still hunt and farm for their meat and eggs, and grow vegetable gardens for their vegetables. They'll spend some mornings on their boats fishing... while taking calls and photos on their iPhone.
Technological efficiency in free market capitalism will make many of our current jobs obsolete, but people will keep finding ways to survive, create, and enjoy their life.
There is simply not enough land on the Earth to feed 7 billion people without modern technologies. So only a minority of people can downshift and live simpler life, but not >90% of "useless" population.

As the concentration of power in the hand of few is not proved in a free market (quote me one company that ever got enough capital for mass scale coercion), it has been already been proved in democratic (and non democratic) government.
Large U.S. oil companies have significant influence on the government and many wars were ignited by them in last 20 years.
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July 09, 2014, 07:31:28 PM
 #610

Some of my best friends still hunt and farm for their meat and eggs, and grow vegetable gardens for their vegetables. They'll spend some mornings on their boats fishing... while taking calls and photos on their iPhone.
Technological efficiency in free market capitalism will make many of our current jobs obsolete, but people will keep finding ways to survive, create, and enjoy their life.
There is simply not enough land on the Earth to feed 7 billion people without modern technologies. So only a minority of people can downshift and live simpler life, but not >90% of "useless" population.

As the concentration of power in the hand of few is not proved in a free market (quote me one company that ever got enough capital for mass scale coercion), it has been already been proved in democratic (and non democratic) government.
Large U.S. oil companies have significant influence on the government and many wars were ignited by them in last 20 years.

Large U.S. oils companies never used coercion against me, and does not ask me to work for them if I don't want to.

But still, if you refer to the energy crisis, I'll quote Milton Friedman
Quote
The present oil crisis has not been produced by the oil companies. It is a result of government mismanagement exacerbated by the Mideast war.
You can go into Friedman arguments he always go deep inside the problem. (Not saying he is right or wrong, but that would be a base for discussion)

Government can provoke shortage or surplus by fixing minimum or maximum price of goods.
In a free market without government intervention such forced consequence is impossible.

Quote
Do you want a surplus? Have the government legislate a minimum price that is above the price that would otherwise prevail…. Do you want a shortage? Have the government legislate a maximum price that is below the price that would otherwise prevail.

Milton Friedman - Energy Policy  : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hj1974Ek4nw

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giantdragon (OP)
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July 09, 2014, 08:22:00 PM
 #611

Large U.S. oils companies never used coercion against me, and does not ask me to work for them if I don't want to.
If you live in the U.S., these wars may be even beneficial for you. However if so, people in the affected countries (Iraq, Libya, Syria etc) have all moral rights to call you their enemy along with U.S. govt and corporations!
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July 09, 2014, 08:32:36 PM
 #612

Large U.S. oils companies never used coercion against me, and does not ask me to work for them if I don't want to.
If you live in the U.S., these wars may be even beneficial for you. However if so, people in the affected countries (Iraq, Libya, Syria etc) have all moral rights to call you their enemy along with U.S. govt and corporations!
Please, develop in why you think the oil Companies provoked that, or give links to your facts.
I thought you were talking about the energy crisis in which case Milton Friedman has compelling arguments.

I am not from U.S., but if I was, Iraq Libya Syria would not be my enemies.
They are the enemies of the government, and I would not consider the government to be me, be it as democratic as it claim.

If I was American, the government have the right to force me to fight and die, not its enemy, nor any private company have this power.
Thus, I would prefer a private company in power than a government. And again, there is no instance of such thing that happened in a free market.

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giantdragon (OP)
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July 09, 2014, 09:44:54 PM
 #613

Please, develop in why you think the oil Companies provoked that, or give links to your facts.
It is so obvious... I am even wondering why are you asking for the links.

Read here: http://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2014/mar/20/iraq-war-oil-resources-energy-peak-scarcity-economy
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July 10, 2014, 04:48:53 PM
 #614

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In 2000, Iraq had "effectively become a swing producer, turning its taps on and off when it has felt such action was in its strategic interest to do so." There is a "possibility that Saddam Hussein may remove Iraqi oil from the market for an extended period of time" in order to damage prices

Why do you still say it is oil companies fault, when Saddam Hussein did that ?
The war is run by the US, not by private companies.
The US was just pissed off that Saddam Hussein was regulating oil supply. A similar thing happened in the 70s.

Back then, an Irannian regulation (triggered by political interest, not private company interest) created a oil production slowdown.
This would result in increase of price, to reach offer and demand equilibrium.
But the public asked for government price regulation... which they did.

And what happens when we enforce maximum good price below natural price ? A shortage. Government triggered a shortage of oil instead of price increase...
Such government controlled artificial low price also protect oil against other energy alternatives.

In 1980, they finally retired the bad idea... but created a tax on US oil producer, to "control" the new freedom they had.
This gave incentives to slowdown domestic production, and increase oil import, making US poorer as a result.

I don't even see why it is "obvious" that the Iraq invasion is a result of private companies interest.
It is not. It is a US government action, that want their companies to control oil, so they can influence oil by regulation afterward. (as much as Saddam Hussein was already doing)

A oil producer has no incentive to provoke a shortage. Since he will pay from its own pocket any difference between supply and demand. (whose natural level is compromised by government regulation with taxe, taxe incentives, or price regulation)

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July 10, 2014, 10:46:19 PM
 #615

As the concentration of power in the hand of few is not proved in a free market (quote me one company that ever got enough capital for mass scale coercion), it has been already been proved in democratic (and non democratic) government.
Large U.S. oil companies have significant influence on the government and many wars were ignited by them in last 20 years.
None of the wars were fought because of oil companies in the last 20 years. Some wars were fought over oil, but not the companies themselves.

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July 10, 2014, 10:51:43 PM
 #616

Seems obvious technology will hurt employment at some point.  Service sector jobs are the dominant option for the average citizen.  Which is a overpopulated job market to be in currently.  When you realize technology is only advancing and corporations are always looking to save money and keep up with the best tech to remain relevant.
it seems obvious to me that many people will be left without viable options for job paying a decent wage.  

I could not guess when this will happen but the talk of drones delivering packages and computer driven vehicles leads me to believe times are changing.  
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July 10, 2014, 10:52:04 PM
 #617

Bitcoin will enable taxation to become mostly voluntary - charity beyond belief. Just... need...    to... cross... the line.
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July 11, 2014, 01:06:07 AM
 #618

The war is run by the US, not by private companies.
Private companies had interest in this war and lobbied the US govt!

And what happens when we enforce maximum good price below natural price ? A shortage. Government triggered a shortage of oil instead of price increase...
Such government controlled artificial low price also protect oil against other energy alternatives.
It doesn't matter in planned economy because both oil miners and it's consumers (refineries, chemical plants, gasoline stations) are owned by single body therefore there are no price mechanism at all!

Bitcoin will enable taxation to become mostly voluntary - charity beyond belief. Just... need...    to... cross... the line.
About Bitcoin you are absolute right!  Wink
But when tech unemployment will hit hard I foresee collapse of the large countries to small self-sustaining communities who will own almost all things necessary to live (cheap energy from efficient photovoltaics, multi-material 3D printers, recyclers, automated farms etc). Bitcoin will be used to buy luxuries and for trade between communities, so most people could live just for internal currency given by their community for various activities like education, environment improvement, child/eldery care etc ... or simply for nothing as unconditional basic income.
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July 11, 2014, 02:08:02 AM
Last edit: July 11, 2014, 02:33:59 AM by STT
 #619

Quote
Technological unemployment is (almost) here
 Poll
Question:    What solution would you prefer?
Unconditional income (extremely high taxation inevitable)   -
Planned economy (with full employment provided by state)


I find the choices kind of a joke there, Fascism is the only choice now in the face of adversity.    Thats funny but I guess it fits the paradigm of the day, only government can save you from capitalism

Of the two I would favour unconditional income as it comes closest to flat taxation.    Qatar has an income of 20,000 for every citizen because of their oil and gas.
It sounds wrong and your suggestion, ( high taxation) but that does not have to be true.  

Actually forced income for everyone could make the country richer.   Paying out money could create budget surplus, not impossible.    It might increase efficiency which is ironic but in comparison to the current 50% gov in GDP its possible that stating outright the interference and making everyone in the country equal in their benefits could definitely be a good thing and inspire greater productivity.
I dont think 20k per person is possible, even if it was of working age only or even 1 person per household.    I think maybe 6k per person is feasible, though obviously the gov is broke but in theory anything is possible with QE.
     As to high taxes, say 25% sales tax nationally would be best to encourage momentum and maximum business which is basically what the FED is constantly trying to do but with sales and negative income tax like this system I do think it is causing productivity increases and only taking from those with excess cash

So what this would do is replace the current welfare state setup where people are encouraged to report inability to work.  This is why a fixed income could be a good thing, its just a base line and an equality creator.
   You give the 9k to everyone and maybe the person with a bad back who sits watching TV takes that 9k and decides to help man the radio for Taxis as well.  Top up their income, of course they would as 9k is nothing much (its far less then current welfare cost I know) and they want more.  
  We always want more, even if I said give everyone 30k a year or 50k people would still want more, that is capitalism and consumerism and basic human motivation which we all recognise.    The good comes from enabling people to go achieve as much as possible.  Take the 9k and use it as seed money and dont look back, its not much but its a fortune compared to some paupers of the world.  
 It'd be a massive boom compared to the welfare, minimum wage, obamacare and the whole line of big gov spending taking over everyones budget, causing less to be done and with more laws as puppet strings for everyones actions

And a huge problem is that people now have to compete with computer to win at intelligent front, thus become more and more stressed out then ever due to higher and higher hardware/software processing power
Rest assured that computers are still stupid.   What might be needed is increasing number of people who can utilise the power of a computer to save time or extrapolate intelligence as you say, but the computer itself is dumb.
   The competition is always for efficiency, if one man knows how to do your job by feeding a batch file to some mass produced silcon then the 'blame' lies with that one man who used the tool so well.  

Work does not make people rich, the production or the result of the labour is what makes it worthwhile, makes the money.  If I broke my back the whole year to create a harvest and it rained hailstones for two days and the whole crop is ruined then I got nothing but my job.  I aint got the money or the production but I got my job still and I sure aint happy about my stupid useless wasted time of a job.   Gov coming in to fix that with a bailout because its all a screwup does not change a thing, the job was no good
  The focus is on the result, its the food we need, the job does not matter.   Technology is not an enemy of anyone who wants who needs results

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July 11, 2014, 05:38:50 PM
 #620

Yes. Even bitcoin will replace many existing jobs if it ever become mainstream.
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