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[UserU]

Nice, about time FUN moves on to its own blockchain. Having stuck with hefty fees and converting multiple times, man.

[babygun]

FUN Token Is Changing the World of iGaming. Join the Revolution.

2021 has been an amazing year for FUN Token and FreeBitco.in.

We acquired FUN and launched the Premium Membership Program powered by the token. Subsequently, FUN Token gained over 125,000 new users this year; this renewed activity even helped FUN hit a three-year high of $0.068.

And we want to go even further.

Our vision for FUN Token involves developing it into a token that would help bring decentralized gaming to the mainstream. We’ve developed a roadmap of our plans for FUN Token over the coming year, and we’d like you to take a look:

~snip

This is a very interesting roadmap. Now we are seeing FUN pumping again because of this. My tokens are now worth almost a million sats.

I hope these are not just empty promises. We have seen other casinos which were supposedly decentralized but then they started implementing KYC and blocking people based on country of residence.

Same here! Interesting roadmap and looking forward to the new developments that will come. I don't think these are empty promises, freebitco.in will not put a roadmap on paper that they can't fulfill.

[Timelord2067]

...

@freebitco.in PR - Just a couple of observations if I may:

I don't think burning any tokens (or coins for that matter) is ever a good idea.  Imagine if DOGE had burned coins in the past, would it's rapid rise just now have attained the same levels, or higher due to a smaller supply.  Don't forget even though there are X Billion coins/tokens, there are less than eight Billion people on the planet, so if each person were to tap into DOGE/Bitcoin/FUN/(insert another name here) the bigger picture is how many people would own how many coins if we were all to participate?

INTRODUCING A NEW SUPER-FAST TOKEN

People might start asking why do we need to HODL Fun if there's yet another coin/token being developed very soon?


Seriously, if you want fast and cheep transactions, implement and promote Bitcoin Lightning Network for your members.  I think you'd be surprised at how many users would implement it if they used wallets such as Eclair, Phoenix or even Zap on the portable devices.

Regards,

[Betwrong]

You've explained it well, I only disagree with your last sentence. I think the chance of winning is absolutely the same either with martingale or betting with 1.1x multiplier. With this particular multiplier you have 10%+ chances of losing your whole balance right away, with the very first bet, even on a site with the smallest house edge.

You are right. I calculated the chance of winning in both cases.
Let's say I have 1 BTC and I want to convert it to 1.1 BTC.

If I put the whole 1 BTC is a single bet with multiplier of 1.1, my chance of winning would be 86.36%.

If I use martingale method and set the base bet to 0.001 mBTC, the chance of converting the 1 BTC to 1.1 BTC would be:

(1 - 0.525¹⁰)¹⁰⁰ = 0.852 = 85.3%

Wow. I didn't know about this. Thanks for your explanation!

Although it's hard to really "feel" the 1% difference when talking about the probability of something happening, I have to admit that I was absolutely wrong, because I thought the bias would be in favor of martingale.

Can you please help me to fully understand your formula,

(1 - 0.525¹⁰)¹⁰⁰ = 0.852 = 85.3%

which I'm sure is accurate bc your post was merited by reputable members of this forum. I see that 0.525 is there because on freebitco.in we have 52.50% chance of losing a bet with 2x multiplier. To the power of 100 is there bc we need to win 100 bets to convert 1 BTC to 1.1 BTC with the base bet of 0.001 BTC ... wait, you said "set the base bet to 0.001 mBTC". Was it a typo, 0.001 mBTC? Because I thought, to the power of 10 here, 0.525¹⁰, was there bc you need to lose 10 times in a row with 0.001 BTC base bet to lose 1 BTC with martingale. ... now I'm lost completely!

Please don't think I'm trolling here. I'm not. I really want to get full understanding of this formula, which is not as simple as it looks(for me, at least). I use to think that I was having a good understanding of probabilities, but it appeared it was only a superficial idea about it.

[freebitco.in PR]

5X Reward Points (RP) promotion is LIVE and ends in 48 hours.

Collect Reward Points and you can unlock the amazing gadgets, prizes, and more cool stuff!

[hosseinimr93]

Can you please help me to fully understand your formula,

(1 - 0.525¹⁰)¹⁰⁰ = 0.852 = 85.3%

The probability of losing a single bet with multiplier of 2 is 0.525.
The probability of losing 10 bets in a row is 0.525¹⁰.
The probability of not losing 10 bets in a row is 1 - 0.525¹⁰.
The probability of winning the bets 100 times without hitting 10 losses in a row is (1 - 0.525¹⁰)¹⁰⁰

The formula for calculating probability of winning n times without losing m times in a row is:
Probability = (1 - L^m)ⁿ

Where, L is the probability of losing a single bet.  

wait, you said "set the base bet to 0.001 mBTC". Was it a typo, 0.001 mBTC?

Yes, it was a typo. It should be 1 mBTC or 0.001 BTC, not 0.001 mBTC. Thank you.
I just edited that post.

If the base bet is 0.001 mBTC, the probability of making 0.1 BTC profit with initial balance of 1 BTC would be

(1 - 0.525²⁰)¹⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰ = 0.776 = 77.6%

As calculated above, for making 10% profit with martingale strategy, multiplier of 2 and base bet of 1 mBTC, the probability is 85.3%
If the base bet is decreased to 0.001 mBTC, the probability decreases to 77.6%
People usually (wrongly) think that by decreasing the base bet, they can increase the probability of making a certain amount of profit.

The only advantage of martingale strategy (as stated by TheQuin) is possibility of reducing the odds to less than minimum odds.

[Text]

I don't think burning any tokens (or coins for that matter) is ever a good idea.  Imagine if DOGE had burned coins in the past, would it's rapid rise just now have attained the same levels, or higher due to a smaller supply.  Don't forget even though there are X Billion coins/tokens, there are less than eight Billion people on the planet, so if each person were to tap into DOGE/Bitcoin/FUN/(insert another name here) the bigger picture is how many people would own how many coins if we were all to participate?

Doge is a different matter here because we know that someone is giving hype here by a famous person so the price just plummeted and continued to go up.  Imagine if he would do the same with the FUN token and maybe the same will happen.  Not everyone has been able to have a coin because many still have no knowledge or interest in it.  So what happens is that multiple coins can be handled by someone capable of holding many.

People might start asking why do we need to HODL Fun if there's yet another coin/token being developed very soon?

I think they should clarify this even more and explain better what really happens to the FUN token when there is a new token?  Will it be replaced or just an addition?

Seriously, if you want fast and cheep transactions, implement and promote Bitcoin Lightning Network for your members.  I think you'd be surprised at how many users would implement it if they used wallets such as Eclair, Phoenix or even Zap on the portable devices.

@TheQuin has already answered why they have not been able to use the Lightning network.  But we know that they may change their minds and find a way to accomplish this.

[UserU]

I think they should clarify this even more and explain better what really happens to the FUN token when there is a new token?  Will it be replaced or just an addition?

It would be a protocol migration so the tokens are converted/ transferred to their own without any further action by the user. If they are on the exchanges such as Binance, they would be automatically migrated as well.

TRX is a good example. Previously it was powered by the ERC-20 (ETH) protocol before it migrated to TRC.

[HeitorMessias]

winning over 3000 SAT or RP is much easier than you said, soon I intend to post my winnings with the wheel of fortune here to help people see how the probability of this game works in practice.

A lot of prove already showed from page 725 on this thread. 5000 sat/RP/ticket at that past, decrease more than 1000 because of bitcoin price increasing atm.  And I just want to say this game is worked.

examples of screen printing is not enough for those who want to invest to take advantage of the spins. It took me almost 2 months to buy my FUN due to lack of concrete information. I already have more than 300 spins over the lasts months, this weekend I will post the proportion of prizes I won in the free spin, this will help many people when doing a FUN analysis.

[SquallLeonhart]

The many consecutive losses may look unrealistic at first impression, but it becomes quite often because gamblers need hundreds or thousands of bets to make some decent profit with a low base bet as many faucets/free bitcoin sites' users are used to play. The less money the person has, the more greedy he becomes to double this amount through low bets, but really frequently. Then it becomes a dangerous journey and high loss streaks are hit often.

That's right, we are talking about people who wager 10 satoshi base bet, and when they earn they earn 10 satoshi, which is not a lot and they would need insane amount of wins in order to make it actually worth something. However if they are on a losing streak it is 10-20-40-80-160-320-640-1280-2560-5120-10240-20480-40960-81920-163840-327680-655360 and goes on.

As you can see this already gave you tens of thousands of dollars worth of loss and it was simply 17 loss streak, from a mere 10 satoshi which is nothing to tens of thousands of dollars on a 17 loss streak. I have to say 17 loss streak could very easily happen, could go as much as 20+ as well but didn't see the need this explains everything, and anyone who thinks "17 in a row can't happen, that is a low chance" doesn't realize that it is quite common when you play 10k+ amounts of dice back to back in one session.

[TheQuin]

INTRODUCING A NEW SUPER-FAST TOKEN

People might start asking why do we need to HODL Fun if there's yet another coin/token being developed very soon?

The next part answers that.

The new token will be pegged 1:1 with FUN. A new wallet will be launched to allow transparent and user-friendly swaps between FUN and the new token.

It's a way of making FUN usable on another blockchain to avoid high ETH Gas fees. It isn't a replacement or alternative to FUN, it's just a more user-friendly way to utilise it.

Seriously, if you want fast and cheep transactions, implement and promote Bitcoin Lightning Network for your members.  I think you'd be surprised at how many users would implement it if they used wallets such as Eclair, Phoenix or even Zap on the portable devices.

That's not going to help make FUN more usable which is the objective of the above.

It is still an option for Bitcoin going forward but the difficulties of running it on a site this large with well over 50 million deposit addresses and thousands of deposits and withdrawals every day probably still outweigh the advantages at the moment. Maintaining a node and all the channels to make that work is a lot more complex than using it as an end user.

[freebitco.in PR]

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Congratulations to User Id 15324044 for winning USD 2009 yesterday.

[icopress]

This is a super useful calculator for finding the odds of loss streaks. If you make 2000 bets, the chance of 10 losses in a row (with a 52.5% chance of losing) occurring at some point in your bets is 78%!

Quite informative, thanks! But you do not take into account that an ordinary person will not make 2000 bets in one session ... it seems to me that a reasonable number is within 400, (and as far as I understand on the site, there is no way to automate the process). I have run about 5 different simulations and I see a rather small probability of getting 10-13 losses in a row (if we take the real number of bets made in one session).

[STT]

Ive done over 400 manual spins in one go betting on a site, took a while but I actually won overall in the end.   Started low because I wasnt sure how the slot game was working but eventually that was 'my system' so I didnt want to change it and it worked out so was good. 
  Freebit has autoroll on the multiply game.    I got the largest wheel spin for satoshi reward again, thats almost sequential days of the newsletter offer roll which is exceptional luck.

Ok so quick test I got 7 low results when betting high.  The odds of 7 in a row with equal odds is 0.0078125 or far below 1% I think is correct, so my unluckiness is blessed with zombie strength it will always be there.   I figure the smart thing is bet low outcome but also tag the 8888 bonus so a very small chance I can win either way, hedge my bets 
[actually adjusting for house edge brings 7 in row as a loss outcome to about 1.1% ignoring any cashback etc.   If I use the streak calc it says 2.666% for 7 out of 10 attempts.  I tried 100 and max was 6 streak which is 63.6% likely)

[jonval21]

This is a super useful calculator for finding the odds of loss streaks. If you make 2000 bets, the chance of 10 losses in a row (with a 52.5% chance of losing) occurring at some point in your bets is 78%!

Quite informative, thanks! But you do not take into account that an ordinary person will not make 2000 bets in one session ... it seems to me that a reasonable number is within 400, (and as far as I understand on the site, there is no way to automate the process). I have run about 5 different simulations and I see a rather small probability of getting 10-13 losses in a row (if we take the real number of bets made in one session).

I like this statistic, the only thing is that reaching 2000 bets in a human way is somewhat difficult, but in automatic bets it is better, however I like the emotion and I feel that I have control, if I put it on automatic I prefer to leave it there without see what happens, so I don't get nervous. My streak in freebitco.in is not very good, in fact whenever I bet I lose everything, but with how much balance do you recommend doing this strategy? To see profitability?

[dezoel]

It's a way of making FUN usable on another blockchain to avoid high ETH Gas fees. It isn't a replacement or alternative to FUN, it's just a more user-friendly way to utilise it.

Have you ever considered if you are acting too early? I mean it is obvious that ETH gas fee is huge however there are things that is worked on to make it lower. It is already lower right now but it is also worked on as well and on July 14th or something like that we are going to see eip 1559 which will make it even cheaper.

With BSC going higher and higher in volume and ETH working on dropping the gas fee lower and lower, maybe the best chain to use will once again be ETH? Who knows. I am not saying do not make this, you already worked on it so much obviously and that is why it is not going to harm you, it was just useless spending on manhour if you ask me, in the long run of course. But who else has that kind of money and manhours to spend if not freebitcoin? So, I guess it wasn't really as big of a deal to make this for you guys than most other people would have.

[slaman29]

This is a super useful calculator for finding the odds of loss streaks. If you make 2000 bets, the chance of 10 losses in a row (with a 52.5% chance of losing) occurring at some point in your bets is 78%!

Quite informative, thanks! But you do not take into account that an ordinary person will not make 2000 bets in one session ... it seems to me that a reasonable number is within 400, (and as far as I understand on the site, there is no way to automate the process). I have run about 5 different simulations and I see a rather small probability of getting 10-13 losses in a row (if we take the real number of bets made in one session).

Are we talking about the same site because I've done millions of rolls on FBC now using auto (which is actually by the way one of the fastest autos if not the fastest on my connection).

Even on manual, which I do for games like Blackjack or Roulette at top speed,,, easily easily 2000 in a few hours:) Have easily seen >15 streak on roulette black/red!

[bitterguy28]

I'm Still waiting for a chance that My name will be listed on this announcement 

I have 8,473 Lottery ticket now , Hope that at least winning the top10 in lottery ? 

[Strongkored]

I'm Still waiting for a chance that My name will be listed on this announcement 

I have 8,473 Lottery ticket now , Hope that at least winning the top10 in lottery ? 

Currently the number of lottery tickets is around 196 million and still rise every second, with the lottery ticket you have a chance is very small about 0.004%, but because the lottery is based on luck, you still have a chance to get it, good luck bro.

[babygun]

I'm Still waiting for a chance that My name will be listed on this announcement 

I have 8,473 Lottery ticket now , Hope that at least winning the top10 in lottery ? 

Lottery has just been performed, but I don't find anyone in the top 10 with 8473 tickets  . Just keep trying and buy/win some lottery tickets and maybe one day the luck is with you. After all, you only need 1 ticket to win.