rpietila public diary -- Episode II

[rpietila]

Today's been quiet. The tide of bitcoins has changed so that they are now flowing from BTC China to Mt.Gox and Bitstamp, to be sold (this is evidenced by the negative spread). The western appetite for bitcoins can thus be satisfied at these higher prices.

Whereas China wanted to buy bitcoins from us in the early stages of the rally (+ the pop and the crash after that), now as prices seem permanently higher, they sell them back. Good for them! 

I have been thinking what to do with the newfound wealth. Currently it seems prudent to buy a castle/manor house to be a second apartment, and keep the rest of the gains as a fiat position, which can be used in all kinds of trading activities, doing arbitrage etc. Then perhaps buy a new car if there are nice models available (last summer it was white Audi A7 that I was interested in). I already have a large stash of precious metals, several safes and a vault. (The castle would add another vault.)

Taking care of my own affairs is quite time-consuming; I just felt that the time was right to solidify the old world position while keeping the supermajority of the bitcoins. Some have said that they do not want any non-portable wealth no matter how expensive bitcoin gets. That is fine. I am more concerned about those that want to be rich, but do not understand what it takes. Currently, the positions to become rich are still available for everyone, as long as they do not sell their bitcoins prematurely.

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[vokain]

I guess the castle will be in China !

not necessarily in China
http://www.oftwominds.com/blognov13/China-overseas11-13.html

[Rampion]

I have been thinking what to do with the newfound wealth. Currently it seems prudent to buy a castle/manor house to be a second apartment, and keep the rest of the gains as a fiat position, which can be used in all kinds of trading activities, doing arbitrage etc. Then perhaps buy a new car if there are nice models available (last summer it was white Audi A7 that I was interested in).

Audi A7? Wow, I thought you would be driving something more suitable to a Supernode. Something like a Lamborighini Reventon:

[RAJSALLIN]

@rpietila

I am going to follow your "rake" method in the other thread.  Am wondering, do you think at some point we should cash out most of the holdings in case of a dramatic dip by estimating an adoption top-off point in the future?  your rake method goes to $1000/mbtc, which is great, but what if there are signs $300 will be the top, or $1000 is the top etc.  Especially if the amount of funds we have in btc at that time can have a dramatic impact on our life.  estimating the top will be the hard part, and it doesn't necessarily have to crash back down for long, I mean it could hit $1000 then correct to $300 and advance slowly and smoothly from there if it gains mainstream adoption.  However, at that point profit-taking most of the mbtc at $1000 and keeping a small % for the long term would be wise.  What do you think?  

Also, what do you think about starting to rake at $5k, or $10k?

Thanks, really appreciate all the knowledge you offer. 

I think the point with rake method is so you don't have to be estimating tops. If you feel you want to have a higher percentage of fiat over 100mbtc for example then make your rake strategy already now so that this will be the case. Either rake at a higher percentage from the start or start raking more at a certain point.

[2017orso]

Starting to rake past a certain point makes the most sense.  Little fiat now won't change much, having more mbtc at $100+ obv a big deal.

[AnonyMint]

I am quite satisfied that the discussion has changed from "we will never sell BTC" to how to transfer value to the masses as adoption peaks.

Progress. And note Litecoin is $36 now.

[rpietila]

What is the simplest way to short LTC?

[Voodah]

Buy all the BTC?

[Peter R]

What is the simplest way to short LTC?

I've never done it before, but I noticed in my Bitfinex account https://www.bitfinex.com that there are 15,000 LTC available for shorting at 2% APR.  I think you'd have to sell them on the Bitfinex exchange, however, as I don't think they route trades to BTC-e [but I may be wrong].

EDIT: Looks like there's enough LTC available for shorting at Bitfinex that you could actually take out most of the order book, Risto.  Give us the heads up before you drop da bomb yo  

[Peter R]

Regarding the last two comments, I wonder when calls for the SEC and EU equivalents to get involved will come due to what I am reading to be desire to collude to manipulate markets? Or am I misreading.

Is discussing one's trading intentions on a public forum "colluding to manipulate markets?"  

...but please do short every new altcoin that purports to be the Bitcoin-killer. PLEASE.

Uh oh Anonymint, looks like you expressed a real "desire to collude" here.  Better turn yourself in. 

[rpietila]

Today I've been pruning the threads (see OP for all the nice threads where specific matters are discussed) and adding more content.

A few weeks ago we had a discussion about what to do as the bitcoin holdings seem over-concentrated and most of the world don't have much. I think bitcoin holdings are not that concentrated after all, and the current mechanisms for distribution are effective enough. Partly I realized this as I have been called über-bull and whatnot, but I still decided to throw a dice whether I get a retirement at an expense of thousands of bitcoins, or get to buy them back cheaper and merely get a car and a house as profits. The markets have decided that I need a retirement, so be it. But the fact is that thousands of bitcoins are now in somebody else's hands.

To be able to enjoy your retirement, I suggest you make a very solid plan on when and how much to cash out. If possible, you should structure the sales to very small increments, to avoid exchange risk. Only sell when the price is rising, and do sell. If you hold through the peak, it just makes you anxious to sell afterwards when it's clear that the price is not rising back in a few weeks.

That I am "suddenly" advocating selling is based on the math that during every double in price, on average 17% of the previous holders' bitcoins are sold. So why not sell according to a reasonable model that mathematically rewards you + takes away the anxiety?

We will soon have updated wealth distribution in that thread. Probably we will need to increase the Bitcoin usership significantly. The previous estimate is only 350,000. Now the price has risen 5x, which - if directly correlated - would put the usership at 1.75M.

Also I've been trying to move the bitcoins back from China. Just a few days ago I could buy there at cost and sell in Bitstamp. Now the premium is already about 13%, which makes it more interesting to sell them back, and wait for the price to equalize.

I am thinking that currently there is quite much momentum in bitcoin's price, so at the moment I would not sell speculatively. Just sell according to the plan when the price goes up. There will be peaks and crashes on the way, and considering how pathetic the exchanges are, they will continue to be unusable at the time of action. My original speculation of going to $2000+ and then crash to $500 looks quite viable now. But if I lose money on speculation, who are you to believe you win? 

Hopefully even next year we would no more have the need to transfer to fiat at all. It is just a pain, a sad reminder of the past.

[rpietila]

Just a quick note: My wife wanted to send some relief to Philippines disaster victims. It happened that the mediating organization is based in the U.S. and therefore accept USD in a U.S. bank. For some weird reason, international wires that used to be a standard in online bank (at a $37-$74 fee of course but still) have recently been disabled so that you need to go to the branch office to physically fill in the papers. Last time I had to do this was when I bought some bitcoins from Goat, it took about 3 hours total. Luckily we don't live in the rural areas - even 100km distance from here (heart of the capital of Finland) it may be that your nearest bank is 30km away.

After the money is sent, it will take an equally time-consuming journey to Philippines, and lose its value in fees, conversions and even inflation. Meanwhile the long delays make sure that the disaster victims have to suffer before the aid reaches them.

I hereby declare that I will not donate anything in other currency than Bitcoin anymore. I will not trust my money to anyone who does not understand Bitcoin, except when his life is in immediate danger.

This is in addition to the refusal to use anything except Bitcoin in internet purchases.

[AnonyMint]

have recently been disabled so that you need to go to the branch office to physically fill in the papers.

I told you the capital controls and confiscations are coming. You are seeing the early signs. Armstrong had a post recently documenting the major banks in the USA are eliminating the ability to send international wires from normal accounts.

After the money is sent, it will take an equally time-consuming journey to Philippines, and lose its value in fees, conversions and even inflation. Meanwhile the long delays make sure that the disaster victims have to suffer before the aid reaches them.

It is much too late. I know many in the region and they've already left for Manila because they can't afford anything in the disaster areas.

Massive (child) prostitution and human trafficking is ongoing.

The aid is coming into Tacloban for the media show and there falls into a black hole and is resold at high prices to the outlying areas. Your aid effectively is likely supporting the profits of private armies in the area.

If you really wanted to make a difference, you would need to come to the area and distribute the money yourself. And you would probably need bodyguards.

Sorry Bitcoin isn't accepted any where there. You would need pesos and real goods.

There is a need to quickly harvest all the fallen coco lumber into makeshift homes before it rots. So many homeless.

[rpietila]

That makes me sad, she just wants to help 

[kwest]

Hopefully even next year we would no more have the need to transfer to fiat at all. It is just a pain, a sad reminder of the past.

We're heading in that direction at least. I only realized a little while ago that I wouldn't need to sell my BTC if I wanted to buy an airline ticket.. I'll just use btctrip instead. Same thing with buying stuff off Amazon... use Gyft.

And seeing as Amazon has a subscription service for things like toilet paper, cat food, and other household items.. I wouldn't need to buy them at the supermarket.. I could, in reality, buy them with bitcoin online.

[bootlace]

Just a quick note: My wife wanted to send some relief to Philippines disaster victims. It happened that the mediating organization is based in the U.S. and therefore accept USD in a U.S. bank. For some weird reason, international wires that used to be a standard in online bank (at a $37-$74 fee of course but still) have recently been disabled so that you need to go to the branch office to physically fill in the papers. Last time I had to do this was when I bought some bitcoins from Goat, it took about 3 hours total. Luckily we don't live in the rural areas - even 100km distance from here (heart of the capital of Finland) it may be that your nearest bank is 30km away.

After the money is sent, it will take an equally time-consuming journey to Philippines, and lose its value in fees, conversions and even inflation. Meanwhile the long delays make sure that the disaster victims have to suffer before the aid reaches them.

I hereby declare that I will not donate anything in other currency than Bitcoin anymore. I will not trust my money to anyone who does not understand Bitcoin, except when his life is in immediate danger.

This is in addition to the refusal to use anything except Bitcoin in internet purchases.

I purchased the domain BitCharity.com a while back hoping to make a central hub for bitcoin donations but never had the time. If you have any ideas for it, would be glad to hear it.

[rpietila]

Charity is a flawed concept. In most cases it resembles government.

Everything is better organized by open market. The current system of socialism greatly aggravates suffering in crisis situations, because the incentives are twisted exactly to the opposite than what they should be:

For example, in times of crisis, businesses may have to give away their emergency supplies to the government, or to sell at rationed prices. Hoarding is discouraged, you may even lose your life if you try to defend your property. Yet, these businesses and hoarders would be in the very position to make the whole "crisis" a non-issue if only they would be let to operate normally and property not touched.

Because private preparation for crisis is discouraged under the laws that "it will be confiscated anyway", government has everyone at their mercy considering the most vulnerable supplies. Well planned. Hope as few of you as possible burn in hell.

[AnonyMint]

Can't you find a smaller charity that you can confirm is operating in the area rather than through a central clearing for all charity into the area?

Other than that, I could try to refer you to some locals, but I can't vouch that someone will remain honest when tempted. And the problem is the low economy-of-scale for you. Filipinos tend to be very caring but territorial first to self, then family, then tribe. Not all of course, but this is the serious friction you would encounter on the ground in real life.

I really wanted to go into the area. I had to decide between coding or going there.  

I was actually texting with people who were hit by the eye about midnight before the towers went out and the eye came through roughly 8 - 9am. Then I could not make any contacts into the area for several days.

P.S. I probably exaggerated to some extent, but I might not be far from the reality. There were free bus rides provided out of the area to Manila. But I am not exaggerating that aid is not reaching the far flung areas. There are also many smaller islands.

[rpietila]

Other than that, I could try to refer you to some locals, but I can't vouch that someone will remain honest when tempted. And the problem is the low economy-of-scale for you. Filipinos tend to be very caring but territorial first to self, then family, then tribe. Not all of course, but this is the serious friction you would encounter on the ground in real life.

This is the solution, not the problem. It allocates the resources most effectively:
- The affected receive bitcoins directly to them just hours after the crisis, from private donors. P2P
- The material relief takes longer, but if it is allowed to go to the areas and sold at market price, all will be fine before a week has passed.

[rpietila]

From another thread:

Important thing is that it refused to be pricked, and bounced straight back from $800 (bitstamp), which has become a strong support. The probability that it will be breached (for anything more but a flashcrash, maximum) has strongly diminished.

Gox also held well.

But who had a look at BTC China? It refused to be manipulated at all! The spread between China and Bitstamp went to +20% due to stamp crashing, whereas both the day before and after it was close to 0%. China is providing so immense liquidity that it has changed the game totally.

The weekend was the best opportunity for taking the price down, and all tricks were pulled, but it seems to have just proven that the $1,000 level is legitimate. It is a nice, round figure, and fundamentals and exponential trends are soon catching it. The lacking volume in these prices, which was my concern, and the topic of this thread, has feen fulfilled.

I am sorry if my bearish call in Nov 19 was misinterpreted as an exhortation to sell all, or even half of anyone's holdings. With bitcoin, most of the holdings should be in cold storage and the rest diversified to other forms of wealth according to a predetermined plan, for example the SSS plan.

Add to this:

I instructed the newcomers to buy only BTC1 when my bearish call was in force. Now you can buy as much as you want, because the probability of a prolonged crash from these levels is lowered. Just remember to invest what you can afford to lose, because Bitcoin is in beta, and nobody guarantees it. Probably till the day it does away with fiat, it is still guaranteed by no one