Monero Fork in one day.. hash rate drop predictions ?

[Marvell2]

So anyone want to predict what the Monero diffulty goes to on the 6th ?

current diff is  - 116,825,734,095
total hashrate  -957.59 Mh/s give or take?

Personally I predict at 30% inital drop , before GPU miners switch back over from other coins

so difficult goes to 81,778,013,866.5
hash rate to 600  mh/s

[1715020978]

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[tg88]

If all goes well, it will be a great day this will increase overall profitability.

[N2DCRYPT]

So anyone want to predict what the Monero diffulty goes to on the 6th ?

current diff is  - 116,825,734,095
total hashrate  -957.59 Mh/s give or take?

Personally I predict at 30% inital drop , before GPU miners switch back over from other coins

so difficult goes to 81,778,013,866.5
hash rate to 600  mh/s

77% of monero hashrate is unknown, and you think less than half of that is ASIC-driven? Hopefully that's conservative... I'd like a 40-50% drop better 

Regardless, it will be an interesting day!

[Metroid]

Keep this thread alive for the calculations and statistics of before and after the fork so we can see what to expect from other coins which hard fork to block asics.

[fluxy12]

I hope monero devs will save us from this Bitmain evil *uckers.

Hey Ethereum has grow up so fast because of gpu miners, it can be the same with monero.

[xs.over]

[Shnikes101]

How is difficulty calculated? If I'm thinking about it right, even if you have a drop in network hash it still may take some time for difficulty to adjust down?
Not sure if that's hours or days or longer.

Seems like there was a coin back in the day who had a similar experience. Massive network hash drop but difficulty hung for some time before completely re-balancing.

[yrk1957]

450 MH/s tops.

AMD rigs will switch back and Nvidia rigs profits will start going up...

[Marvell2]

450 MH/s tops.

AMD rigs will switch back and Nvidia rigs profits will start going up...

that would be nice, AMD rigs are on raven now too killing profits

[Marvell2]

will nicehash be the best place to mine to ? with my AMD rigs ? debating here

Ive not gone back to them since the ripoff

[Iamtutut]

will nicehash be the best place to mine to ? with my AMD rigs ? debating here

Ive not gone back to them since the ripoff

Best place is to mine with a 100% cryptonight miner, directly to your wallet.

It will be interesting to follow the moves between ETH difficulty and XMR difficulty. Lots of Vega rigs may witch from ETH to XMR.

[B1tUnl0ck3r]

maybe 50% of the hash is asic? I am curious how long it will take bitmain to have new asics for v7... I think less than 60 days to have the first batch hashing... maybe 70 days .

[philipma1957]

 60% fast drop  then a climb back to 30-40%

and if I understand asics  it should take 4-6 months  to crack it again not  60-70 days

[B1tUnl0ck3r]

60% fast drop  then a climb back to 30-40%

and if I understand asics  it should take 4-6 months  to crack it again not  60-70 days

I disagree, bitmain has yuge teams already in place... if you look at all the algos they own... sha, scrypt, x11, cryptonight, sia, ethash, equihash (still private:))...

I guess as the algo is already public they are almost done with the design... maybe 10 days more.

then wait for a slot in fab (30 days).

fab print the chips (10 days)

assembling the hashers (20 days)

installation completed.

anyway when the diff start to double in a a few days, it will be there .

[peterboy1]

poor 12k asic buyers.

[Metroid]

anyway when the diff start to double in a a few days, it will be there .

They will camouflage their asics again and remember they will not sell any, they will mine the hell of it and will sell next year or maybe they will never sell their asics again and day by day camouflage as if it was gpus added to the network.

poor 12k asic buyers.

This is good, one day asic buyers will learn their lesson. If this block keep happens then bitmain and co will never sell asics for coins that are fighting them anymore, they will keep them hidden. The idea here is to change the algo regardless if asics will be released or not. Remember that the coins need to be like our body, our body has immune system, it adapts and kill, if not then take medicines to get better and then that will not work anymore. I worked with adaptive systems my whole life. I have the concept and the skills, If i was to create a coin, it would be 100% immune to anything.

[HansHagberg]

Monero needs another fork again in 4 weeks just to cure the disease properly.
As said already, Bitmain is probably already well on the way for V7.

SUMOKOIN has now forked to their new heavy version.
Their hash rate is down to 10-20%

[Metroid]

The good thing is that we will get feedback from users who bought the asics. If these asics were in bitmain warehouse mining then bitmain could update a firmware if need to be, right now there is nothing bitmain can do to help the people whose they sold the asics to but bitmain can still firmware or trick the new algorithm into thinking those asics is a gpu, lets see what happens.

[CryptoNoob1337]

I think the hashrate drop will be massive.

Yesterday, after the sumokoin fork, the net-hashrate dropped from 145MH/sec (High at 180MH/sec) to 10MH/sec. Now its at 6MH/sec.

At the officiall pool the miners number dropped from 500 to 100.

I guess ASIC rate is 50% + 20% botnets....

Edit: lol i saw xs.over's picture after i wrote this

[B1tUnl0ck3r]

The good thing is that we will get feedback from users who bought the asics. If these asics were in bitmain warehouse mining then bitmain could update a firmware if need to be, right now there is nothing bitmain can do to help the people whose they sold the asics to but bitmain can still firmware or trick the new algorithm into thinking those asics is a gpu, lets see what happens.

that would be so cool !

I think the hashrate drop will be massive.

Yesterday, after the sumokoin fork, the net-hashrate dropped from 145MH/sec (High at 180MH/sec) to 10MH/sec. Now its at 6MH/sec.

At the officiall pool the miners number dropped from 500 to 100.

I guess ASIC rate is 50% + 20% botnets....

bitmain is one of the greatest company in the world... no doubt about it. I wait their x86 asics