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Author Topic: Economic Devastation  (Read 504742 times)
AnonyMint
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April 29, 2014, 01:47:18 AM
 #221

The big picture:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=365141.msg6447833#msg6447833

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April 29, 2014, 04:11:02 AM
 #222

It was under the Clinton Administration that the Federal Government also specifically decided to not regulate the derivatives.

~4 years ago I was hearing about the derivatives Death Star that would destroy the economy.
I'm surprised the economy is still avoiding a complete collapse.....for now.

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April 29, 2014, 09:31:47 AM
 #223

It was under the Clinton Administration that the Federal Government also specifically decided to not regulate the derivatives.

~4 years ago I was hearing about the derivatives Death Star that would destroy the economy.
I'm surprised the economy is still avoiding a complete collapse.....for now.

Derivatives were prevented from defaulting by the various ZIRP measures employed by the central banks.

The result is a slide into an insane Apocalypse then arising from ashes will be the Phoenix of "international cooperation" (which is a code word for a global slavery system with digital tracking and enforcement of all surviving humans on earth).

http://endtimeobserver.blogspot.com/2009/09/flashback-1988-economist-magazine-get.html


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April 29, 2014, 02:26:01 PM
Last edit: March 22, 2021, 12:34:12 PM by fredjansen25
 #224

Essentially society is trapped in a cycle of ever increasing economic inefficiency. Our collective lack of understanding of the fundamental cause will result in attempted "fixes" that will worsen the underlying problem. The end result is economic collapse. The world will not end but we are facing something that is likely to exceed the Great Depression.

To understand why, and why society cannot avoid it (although individuals can) you have to understand the link works. It's not an easy read.


Read more here:  Loanguide.one
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April 30, 2014, 11:17:54 PM
 #225

Essentially society is trapped in a cycle of ever increasing economic inefficiency. Our collective lack of understanding of the fundamental cause will result in attempted "fixes" that will worsen the underlying problem. The end result is economic collapse. The world will not end but we are facing something that is likely to exceed the Great Depression.

To understand why, and why society cannot avoid it (although individuals can) you have to understand the linked works. It's not an easy read.


Hard to believe its been almost five months since I wrote that.
Time really flies. I am happy to see that you read it.
I hope you read the links in the OP as well.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=355212.msg3824247#msg3824247


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May 01, 2014, 01:42:43 AM
 #226

Time to focus. Time is slipping away.

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May 05, 2014, 08:46:16 AM
 #227

Long Wave Cycle (a generational cycle)

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=594024.msg6551625#msg6551625

...the Long Wave Cycle (a generational cycle) which predicts the above effect. The youth will take over after 2032, and the kind of world they will create will be one of extreme idealism. This is FDR New Deal style of dangerous. This will launch big government on a bigger scale than we had ever seen before, i.e. "international cooperation" as code word for loss of local sovereignty. The youth will put in place the U.N. Agenda 21 with a gleam in their eye as they are trained and indoctrinated now to believe for example that man-made global climate change hoax is real and is a real problem.

Here follows the research, and I urge everyone to study this carefully...

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AnonyMint
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May 05, 2014, 11:51:22 PM
 #228

Cross-posting...

I did some research on Tue May 01, 2012 6:36 am (quoted below) on the Long Wave Cycle (a generational cycle)

It's a lot less complicated than that.

For 5,000 years a war has raged between people who attempt to predate others, and people who resist predation.

The use of Russell Brand as an anthropological weapon is merely the latest iteration.

It is a mistake to think of the universe as a one-way progression except in terms of expanding entropy.

There must be friction else nothing could exist, because if speed-of-light was infinite the past and present would collapse into a single point (and thus nothing would exist). With friction there must exist cycles (waves), because nothing will cascade without reverberation, reflection, diffraction, etc., e.g. consider the Butterfly effect. I covered this in great detail in my blog essay on the The Universe:

http://unheresy.com/The%20Universe.html#Matter_as_a_continuum

Thus it is import to study the Generational Cycle I shared and understand that the youth will be coming up as Hero and Artist generational cycle attitudes. Thus when they rebuild the global economy (circa 2032 per Armstrong's model) after this imminent Sovereign Debt Big Bang (Armstrong's model's ETA is Oct 2015), they will be applying extreme idealism. And that is extremely dangerous.

Note that Martin Armstrong's ECM model is based on multiples of Pi, i.e. 8.6 years, and one of the key periods is 3 x 8.6 = 25.6 years which is roughly the maturity cycle of a human wherein one forms a family to generate a new cycle. Armstrong's real estate boom & bust cycle (which also appears to correlate with bouts of technological unemployment) is 3 x 25.6 = 76.8 years.

You provided numerous analysis and examples of how that is occurring and I suggest readers study your post which I had replied to.

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AnonyMint
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May 06, 2014, 01:03:22 AM
 #229

Cross-posting...

I suggest ignore. tvbcof's positions are so bizarre they don't make a lick of sense to a rational mind. When you point out the inconsistencies of his positions in clear terms a 10yr old could understand, he just ignores you and moves on to the next nonsensical rant. ... If there are any paid disrupters in this thread, he's it. If he's not being paid to post in this thread then he needs to seek counseling.   

He is not paid. This is the illogic of a lefty communist. You can't reason with them because their brain stem is not functioning. Their brains are operative and they can make semi-coherent arguments and even appear to be reasonably intelligent and articulate, yet always the logical consistency is absent.

I think it is because their philosophy is lacking an understanding of thermodynamics and the fact that only a free market of competing actors can optimize (anneal) a dynamic system. He doesn't understand that nature's optimization algorithm is simulated annealing. This is why if ice is cooled slowly, then there are less cracks because the local molecules have more time to find optimum structure.

What a lefty doesn't understand is that no entity can top-down manage resources better than the local competing actors (some perform worse and some perform better and thus the system learns). There is no way that the Feds can monitor every dynamic opportunity and problem experienced by 300 million people every day and decide on the appropriate actions in real-time. Thus every edict and requirement from the Feds is stomping on and preventing the free market of local actors from optimizing with the most degrees-of-freedom.

In the Economics Devastation thread, I explained with respected citations that degrees-of-freedom is known to be equivalent to potential energy.

In your car had no reverse gear (one less degree-of-freedom), then you need to drive in a circle (e.g. around the block) in order to go reverse, i.e. much more inefficient. Government makes the free market adaptation and optimization less efficient.

When government grows from 12% in 1930 to over 75% of GDP (once compliance with all regulations is factored in) as it is now, then we reach negative marginal utility of debt, which means adding new debt actually shrinks the real GDP. Debt reduces degrees-of-freedom too, because everyone and his half brother copies each other, because resources are declared to be free.

As I've mentioned, I'm a lefty and don't really mind if society gives people a hand in limited times of need.  Of course many people will take advantage of things (e.g., 'bleeding the beast') so in order to make the best use of limited resources, we do need to check up on people who are on the Government dole.  Else we end up with single women claiming more dependents than they have and folks like Cliven Bundy claiming special rights and needs.

You attack the symptoms and not the fundamental problem. The fundamental problem is the power vacuum of democracy, i.e. the government grows without bound. The only way to fix that is to deny the ability of the government to tax, so that the citizens have a (individual opt-out) veto against unjust taxation. We must defund the beast. And thus why I am working on such a technological solution.

You have no idea whom you've been debating with. If you knew, you'd feel pretty stupid for stereotyping me the way you did upthread.

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May 06, 2014, 01:36:30 AM
Last edit: May 06, 2014, 01:48:22 AM by STT
 #230

Democratic capitalism is lacking the capitalist part at the moment, with monetary value centralised and controlled by politics.   Thats why democracy can be criticised as unbalanced

Quote
we are facing something that is likely to exceed the Great Depression.

Doom and gloomers are actually optimists if they are doing their maths right.   So long as you acknowledge not all failure is negative and can be a natural and ultimately productive process.   The worst thing that we have now and memorably in the Great depression is not a one off event but a sustained suppression of business.  Obviously the 1930's had dramatic laws passed and followed the Fed itself coming into existence, it wasnt the stocks bubble or fall that caused a negative.
If we had a crash either in stocks, debt, housing prices or even currency now, that would not be the cause or the start of a great depression.   To truly screw things up you need big(ger) government and grand gestures, fine eloquently spoken words and the hypocrisy of the elite and so on.   It would have to be a continual suppression of business again.

If we get a new Lehmans or any failure you want to call out, almost certainly it would be positive if you look at the total effects.   If a bad company wasting resources maybe corrupted or just inefficient, if that ceases then it is a good thing.  If we do face off some bad economic failure, it is very possible that more positives then negatives are created, so long as this also means stopping the negative business that failed society's need for growth



Quote
trapped in a cycle of ever increasing economic inefficiency.
I dont disagree but what causes this.  I look at positive and negative feedback loop for what could be causing a bias that produces a worsening economy.       Too much positive feedback on a stage mic is obviously bad, so its ironic that we actually need less to have a healthy system.  So the problem with the economy now is ironic, its that they are trying to help too much and drowning out the real economic beat


Quote
you have to understand the linked works. It's not an easy read.
I think the problems are essentially simple in their nature.   The relationship between various levels of gov, its (self)funding and its voters is reinforcing negative trends when a normal economy would not

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May 06, 2014, 05:24:39 AM
 #231

We are in the last stage of a mega-bubble, in which nothing matters anymore and we're only going parabolic up. Every time there is too much debt, we will burn it away with inflation. Effectively, everything in society moves faster. That's what we're doing. We're overclocking, we're pushing the gas pedal through the floor.

There are two possible outcomes: we gather enough speed before the road ends and we make the jump to... "singularity"... or if the road ends too soon we will crash back in the middle ages, for a while at least. I don't think Mad Max is going to happen, there is still space for a few decades of excess and acceleration and I'm optimistic about what we can achieve in that time.

The bad news is we will probably have a few market crashes before the great crash. This will slow us down and make it less likely to make the jump. The good news is that at the rate we're accelerating, we could actually reach immortality (carbon, or silicon). GDP and all the rest are bullshit numbers. Tech always wins, and this high-burn period makes tech explode and assimilate everything.

Embrace the change or be the last 100%-human human. My hunch is less than 50 years, so many here should live to see it.

Or, we fuck it all up and try again in 500 years.
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May 06, 2014, 05:44:22 AM
 #232

Cross-posting...

Armstrong doesn't understand what is frontier now; thus his myopia on globalism

Armstrong is still exploring (attempting to refute) the contention about whether there is globalist agenda and what is/are the potential solution(s) to the enslavement of the people as fodder in geopolitical top-down control.

It amazes me that he apparently can't visualize what is obvious to me as the only potential explanation and outcome. Let me try to see if I can more convincingly elucidate the map I 'see' in my brain.

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/05/04/complexity-in-trends/

Quote from: Armstrong
COMMENT:  Marty,

This is a European reply to the Ukraine / CIA coup etc. discussion. For me, you now hit the nail on the head for we are experiencing both: revolutions AND coups !

Yes, there is global uprising by people against their corrupt government. By the way this is happening in every country, if you ask me, just in different stages for instance in central Europe the people are only grumbling by now but they will stand up sooner or later as well.

But there are also coups where mainly Europe and the US fight against each other riding any uprising wave to bring their cronies into foreign governments. Look at Ukraine: Merkel tried to bring this boxer and supported in parallel the blond princess just that the US won this time..

I am truly sorry for the people of Ukraine seeing their people killed for nothing. But what can one win when you uprise against a corrupt president but the next is just a new crony either supported by the West -let me call this kind of coups “democratic” invasion- whereas the East is invaded military by other corrupts ?!

Now, you regret and claim that the Europeans are so diverted by conspiracy thinking that they are not willing to fight for the Ukraine people. Why don’t you see it from this angel: Every family sending a son or husband to fight as a NATO soldier in Ukraine for the people first of all fights already for the corrupt governments of the West, and, as it looks now, would only support the next corrupt crony on either side, Western and Eastern part of the Ukraine.

No, this uprise by the people country-by-country is not to win at the moment. Only once this movement is getting global and insofar coordinated by if you like the invisible hand of Adam Smith, putting all corrupt governments plus their agencies plus their military leaders under pressure all together the same time, there is a chance for us, the people to fight a successful revolution for more freedom again.

But I am afraid, it looks more like 2032 onwards – the next public wave, isn’t it ?

J

REPLY: You may be correct that the big uprising is 2032. The 2014 turning point is the beginning – not the end and by no means the peak. Yes, we have people who are getting really fed up with this corruption. This will get worse as the economy turns down. Then we have government trying to retain power. These are individual trends and that is my point. This can never be reduced to a single cause and effect. It is far more complicated than that.

Exactly! That was my prior point to Armstrong. Why should we fight for either side (Russia or West) since we only fighting for the elite and their corrupt power structure.

Now here is the very key point. Pay close attention.

If the people can't win on a local level, then it means any proposed solution will be supporting loss of local sovereignty. You simply can't amass resources collectively and avoid the corruption of the power vacuum of democracy. Understanding Mancur Olson's (in his book The Logic Of Collective Action) thesis is fundamental to understanding where we are and are headed:

http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=984 (Some Iron Laws of Political Economics)

Thus you see the ultimate outcome of this country-by-country uprising is to turn over control to those who have the levers of control (over the power vacuum) in the wider-scale collective, e.g. the USA, EU, Russian bloc, subservient Asia bloc (China).

And you can thus see it will culminate with war and then ending war with socialist "international cooperation". I refer readers to my prior post about the Long Wave Generational Cycle, and how the youth will take control 2032ish after a widespread chaos, and they will be indoctrinated with "international cooperation" themes (from their state schools, facebook, mass media, etc) such as the man-made global warming hoax.

So the end game of all of this is reset of the global order, discrediting local sovereignty, and awarding control the wider-scale globalists who will have the youth movement in their back pocket, just as they did in the 1960s in the USA.

And so tell me there isn't a globalist agenda and it is all just random chance that such as global order outcome is inevitable?

Now is there any other possible solution? Yes there is, and that is anonymous crypto-currency to defund the globalist beast. But this won't scale fast enough to derail the beast entirely. It can displace a portion of the beast.

So what is really happening in a bigger picture perspective? I explained this is the death of passive capital. The globalist beast is moving to higher economies-of-scale, because it is being made irrelevant by the death of the Industrial Age and the rise of the Knowledge Age, see following linked explanations:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=355212.0
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=495527.msg6103426#msg6103426
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=557732.msg6077596#msg6077596 (read all my posts from this one going downthread)

We have two competing yet coexistent trends. The political-industrial passive capitalists (fascists) are consolidating power because their paradigm is an economic dinosaur which is being displaced by the competing trend. The competing trend is the rise of individual knowledge and power to reach the market and produce directly from one's brain (and computer).

So on the one hand we will see a rise in consolidation of global hegemony, Orwellian technocracy, and multi-national corporate fascism and massive decline in economic production, while only the other hand we will see the 'hackers' (the broader definition meaning knowledge worker) break away in a sub-economy and we will see much chaos and rapid economic growth in this subspace.


http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/05/04/conspiracy-or-just-one-step-at-a-time/

Quote from: Armstrong
Yes, the CIA wanted me to build a computer for them after our model predicted the collapse of Russia That the FT broadcast in advance on its front page of the second section. True I declined. It is also true that within 6 months PEI was attacked. I have a copy of the slide presentation prepared by the lawyers for Republic National Bank that outright lied misrepresenting their illegal trading as me to hide those losses from the Japanese when I owned the accounts – not the Japanese.

Those in the Justice Department were ignorant of international currency transactions and in the criminal complaint they stated that they “have been informed by the attnorneys for Republic Bank”. The US Government did not even do the analysis. The notes were in yen which was what we owed – Japanese yen. What the dollar did was irrelevant – they were not dollar based notes. This was Safra trying to save his sale of the bank for $10 billion to HSBC. Then HSBC did its own due diligence and found the allegations were false and backed out. The allegations were all based on dollars not the currency of the note denomination – yen.

Safra then had to reduce his personal shares by $1 billion and agree to indemnify HSBC. Why? If the public got anything less, then they would have sued Republic/HSBC and the truth would come out. So Edmond took the haircut personally to prevent any lawsuit by shareholders.

I have the documents. So I know HOW this began and who did what. There was no coordinated group behind everything. It was one step at a time. Just as in Ukraine the West seizes the situation of a grassroots uprising to use it for its own benefit. This is how it always comes down – one step at a time – not some giant scheme carried out over decades. It is always the same pattern.

Martin speculates that the "Justice Department were ignorant of international currency transactions". He has no way to prove that they did not fully understand but decided to pretend they did not. This is just an example where a human is not as objective as a computer, because emotions and confirmation biases are difficult for humans to eliminate from their subjective analysis.

Any way, Armstrong has demonstrated nothing above about whether a global agenda exists or not. One can envision that to keep all the parties vested in a global agenda involves a lot of corruption and that corruption can't always be contained in predictable ways, and the system AUTONOMOUSLY adjusts to sustain the corruption (because corruption binds them together otherwise they could all be jailed). The evidence of that effect is the corrupt system put Armstrong in the slammer for 7 years on a bogus contempt of court charge.

Quote from: Armstrong
The case was steered to Judge Owen by the SEC to ensure they could control the case and moved to make sure there were no lawyers allowed even though corporations cannot be represented by a director. Nobody bothers with the law because they know it will take you years to get to the Supreme Court and the Second Circuit Court of Appeals is in the pocket of the Justice Department. So there is no possible way to obtain a fair trial in New York City. It will NEVER happen.

Goldman Sachs then hired Alan Cohen and put him directly on the board. This has never been done before. I believe because Cohen then seized all the evidence documenting the manipulation of markets to protect the other banks including files and many taped phone calls including with people at Goldman. The Princeton office was raided and Socrates was unplugged and taken to a special lab in NYC located in the World Trade Center – the old Saloman Brother’s building. They turned it on and discovered it had self-destructed. They then in writing demanded I turnover the source code or PEI would be shut down. I said go ahead, you will never get the code.

And with all the coorperation amongst a large group, amazingly Armstrong thinks the "NY Club" is isolated and not part of any larger globalist agenda. And he presents absolutely no proof to support such an incredulous position, given the volumes of evidence I have presented to show not only is there a globalist agenda, but there is actual laws and actions occurring that implement that agenda globally in every country on earth. Is Martin blinded to the Agenda 21 activities against farmers in Latin America?

https://www.google.com/search?q=Agenda+21+activities+against+farmers+in+Latin+America

Is Armstrong blind to the manipulation of Greece's economy done by Goldman Sachs, and then appointments of Goldman Sachs persons as leaders all over Europe recently.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/analysis-and-features/what-price-the-new-democracy-goldman-sachs-conquers-europe-6264091.html

Quote from: Armstrong
First Republic pleads guilty to $700 million. The the head prosecutor Richard D. Owens explains to the court on January 9th, 2002 that in reality the notes were in yen not dollars and now Republic only needs to pay $650 million but the yen remained the same. Then 30 days later, it is now $606 million. Owens handed HSBC $400 million in profits belonging to Princeton.

Amazingly, when it comes to the banks, suddenly the government lawyers understand the transactions were in yen not dollars

Duh Martin, then why did you write that assumption above.

Quote from: Armstrong
Now, this is the sequence of events. Yes, you can create a conspiracy and say Goldman, CIA, and Safra all coordinated together to accomplish this. But the more likely than not truth, it is a sequence of independent events one step at a time that cascades into a mess they never foresaw.

Then please explain why Goldman has its tentacles throughout the EU fuckfest. You even noted that the creation of the EU was designed to be flawed. Is that random? No! It was by design.

Quote from: Armstrong
This is where the conspiracy buffs go wrong. They create false images of all-powerful groups that mysteriously manipulate the world for purposes that vary between world dominance to just greed. They cannot see that these are separate groups colliding and at times fighting among each other.

Martin you understand statistics. What is the probability of that level of integration by Goldman due to random orthogonal events and greed. ROUGHLY ZERO.

I am tired of this nonsense. Armstrong is smarter than this. I don't know why he can't do some actual research and overcome his confirmation bias. Obstinance?

Quote from: Armstrong
I do not see how it is possible to have some unified secret group that everyone agrees and extended for hundreds of years. This is inconsistent with human nature.

Because there is a power vacuum of democracy and it must be filled. You should understand thermodynamics.

This vested interest binds them together, because they can't win control of that power vacuum otherwise.

This is entirely consistent with nature.

Quote from: Armstrong
Now look at Ukraine. These conspiracy theorists just have to denigrate the people and presume it is some CIA plot so nobody cares about them. The people are incidental to them and incapable of rising up on their own. They deny human nature exists yet yell there is some all-powerful group to which I am blind. To them, the American Revolution and French Revolution are propaganda and the people were never capable of rising up on their own. They not only fail to understand politics yet claim to know everything about it without ever stepping behind the curtain to witness anything.

Armstrong is conflating orthogonal issues again. I am empathizing with the plight of the Ukrainians, but there is nothing we can do to help them, because we would be merely fighting for the elite and helping the manipulation. The only way for Ukrainians to win is either to have armed themselves with a gun under every blade of grass like in the USA, or for some technological solution to come which enables them to side-step (opt-out) of the power vacuum of democracy, i.e. defund the taxation and political-industrial complex.

And those prior revolutions were also manipulated for outcomes which favored the elite. We would need to get into a deep study of history to debate that, and I don't have time right now. I do believe there was more chaos at that time, because communication and travel was slower thus the chance we see now with anonymous crypto-currency was instead at the time taking the form of distance from the powers-that-be in Europe in the case of the American Revolution.

Quote from: Armstrong
These people project nothing but speculation connecting dysfunctional groups and linking them to statements of David Rockefeller to justify as proof. This idea of a one world government would eliminate war is stupidity. But it was behind the drive to create a Federalized Europe. Nevertheless, that is not proof that some group controls the world.

Armstrong also has nothing but speculation, at least I have provided volumes of evidence.

The difference now is that global technocracy is a reality and they can track everything. You bring the idealistic youth onboard and they will create an EU style fuckfest "international cooperation" for the entire world. And Rockefeller et al will have achieved their Agenda 21 consolidation of control and power over taxation and issuance of debt.

Quote from: Armstrong
There is no political system that has ever lasted intact because there is a correction process that comes from the grass-roots that we call – REVOLUTION.

The only effectual physical revolution you will be seeing are the zombie idealistic youth for "international cooperation", after the global war and chaos from 2016 to 2024 or 2032.

This globe has been shrunk by technology. The only remaining frontier for freedom is cryptography. Armstrong has a dinosaur perspective and he needs to correct this pronto!



"Protester Paul Connor sits on the lawns of Parliament House on day 34 of his hunger strike calling for climate change action, on Dec. 10, 2009, in Canberra, Australia."

Quote from: Armstrong
Rockefeller. His net worth of $2.8 billion is not very much in the scheme of things.

Rockefeller's true networth is in the $trillions and is hidden behind NGOs, corporations, etc..

Quote from: Armstrong
I have even sat at a Washington Dinner at the table with environmentalists who thought I and a friend Dick Fox being associated with Temple University were kin to their thinking. Their agenda is to reduce population growth using the environmental issues as the weapon to hide their true motives. This is the agenda behind global warming and the argued UN Article 21. We let them talk and then my friend Dick Fox who was Chairman of Temple University and the Fox Business School is names after him finally sprung the question on them. Whose grandchild are we trying to prevent from being born? Your’s or mine?

The Democrats have been sold on this environmentalist agenda, but I guarantee they have never heard what I heard that night. Obama is not into depopulation; he is just stupid and believes in global warming blaming cars and factories for the past 120 years being capable of changing the planet long-term. Obama is using the environmental movement not to depopulate, but to raise money and tax using the same theory of cigarettes just calling it the carbon taxes. The conspiracy theorists would then link Obama to depopulation as the secret agenda rather than agreeing further tax collection

Whether Obama is stupid or not is irrelevant because he isn't the mastermind. He could be (and is likely) compartmentalized. You again speculate. The reality is the agenda is being put into action, and the youth will be indoctrinated and ready to embrace it as "international cooperation".

Quote from: Armstrong
These people remain blind to the motives behind such taxes and cannot grasp that politicians are only about money.

No politicians are about sustaining the cooperation that keeps their brethren in control of the power vacuum of democracy.

That is a fundamental myopia of Armstrong. He must correct this.

Quote from: Armstrong
These conspiracy theorists connect everything as if some single mind controls everything. They cannot point to a single thing this group has done without speculation or bold statements they were behind it.

It doesn't even matter if there is a mastermind or not, the reality is Armstrong doesn't even identify the main trend in place, which is not just taxation but rather subjugating sovereignty to the collective on a wider scale as I have explained.

Quote from: Armstrong
They refuse to consider what if there is nobody actually in charge? What happens when all of these conflicting self-interests collide? Historically, you get revolution. That is the only way this will be resolved.

And now finally I understand why Armstrong doesn't get it. He thinks the revolution will be physical. He hasn't realized the world has shrunk due to technology, and physical revolution can't overcome the great powers and the global technocracy. These revolutions will all be manipulated by the great powers.

The revolution and frontier is cryptography. I've been trying to tell him this for several months.

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May 06, 2014, 06:02:11 AM
 #233

Economic Devastation could lead to increased "international cooperation", but some Libertarians think the Federal Gov will be in crisis allowing individual states to regain some independence. At least several optimists are expecting the fly over states to be a great place to be, since the Feds will be too messed up to exert control.

I'm not sure what to expect; With local police militarized, even the best case seems pretty scary.
The idea that freedom will break out through the chaos is very appealing.

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May 06, 2014, 08:17:40 AM
 #234

Economic Devastation could lead to increased "international cooperation", but some Libertarians think the Federal Gov will be in crisis allowing individual states to regain some independence. At least several optimists are expecting the fly over states to be a great place to be, since the Feds will be too messed up to exert control.

I'm not sure what to expect; With local police militarized, even the best case seems pretty scary.
The idea that freedom will break out through the chaos is very appealing.

Which countries have a gun under every blade of grass?

I have written twice that beside cryptography, the other wildcard is the USA as it is the only place on earth (besides maybe Iceland) that has a prayer of standing up to the great powers and the global Orwellian technocracy, because of the widespread ownership of guns and the "take it from my cold dead hands" attitude of perhaps 3 million NRA members.

"The only way for Ukrainians to win is either to have armed themselves with a gun under every blade of grass like in the USA...".

However, we saw after Katrina (which was a dry run for Homeland ScrewUrity) that guns were easily confiscated.

And Homelust (hands in your child's pants) is procuring up to billions of rounds of hollow point bullets (which are illegal in war under Hague convention due to their gruesome effect), 2714 tank-like vehicles, and just recently millions of shotgun rounds.

Also as you say, local police have been deputized by the Feds (Corpus Christi policeman told me this) and are being militarized.

And most of the zombie population in the USA are going to side with the government, because they are dependent economically.

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May 06, 2014, 12:08:12 PM
 #235

I never fully trusted economic theories, especially those new ones. Hip and dramatic.

After all, any theory like those has some kind of holes inside. It only goes down to how big gaps they are.

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May 06, 2014, 03:44:14 PM
 #236

I could agree that there will be lost jobs because of automation. All other things "predicted" could be may or may not happen. People will not allow computer to take over on everything and there will be always human intervention.

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May 06, 2014, 06:34:11 PM
 #237

Quote
lost jobs because of automation

This relates to luddism which is centuries old.   People never like becoming redundant in their jobs but it can be a step forward, we dont need people to serve petrol or even take the cash for it.  We can choose to have people do it anyway but generally buyers dont need or require this and so every other old job like this goes away and we find new things for people to work at like making webpages or whatever.  

This is a step forward, yes people losing jobs can end up positive for society in general.  Politics will never tell you this, hopefully common sense works in the end.  No great crash or depression is needed, just moderate steering would be fine and some panic at the near miss but grim determination to carry on anyway can get us a crash if really desired

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May 06, 2014, 07:16:39 PM
 #238

Quote
lost jobs because of automation

This relates to luddism which is centuries old.   People never like becoming redundant in their jobs but it can be a step forward, we dont need people to serve petrol or even take the cash for it.  We can choose to have people do it anyway but generally buyers dont need or require this and so every other old job like this goes away and we find new things for people to work at like making webpages or whatever.  

This is a step forward, yes people losing jobs can end up positive for society in general.  Politics will never tell you this, hopefully common sense works in the end.  No great crash or depression is needed, just moderate steering would be fine and some panic at the near miss but grim determination to carry on anyway can get us a crash if really desired

It is not easy to observe, but the real connection between work and capital is that wages rise, the profitability of the firm goes down, then there is the choice to stop production and abandon the remaining capital, or to invest in new capital to increase productivity.

Sometimes wages go down, in that case, capital that is useful elsewhere might be sold, and production might go on with lower productivity.

Workers, being the most general production factor, is easily redeployed between firms. The best paying firms get the workers.

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May 13, 2014, 12:14:22 AM
 #239

We are in the last stage of a mega-bubble, in which nothing matters anymore and we're only going parabolic up.
...

There are two possible outcomes: we gather enough speed before the road ends and we make the jump to... "singularity"... or if the road ends too soon we will crash back in the middle ages,
...

Or, we fuck it all up and try again in 500 years.

I believe there are three possibilities

1) Crash into middle ages (mad max)
2) Anonymous decentralized cryptocurrency arises that is widely adopted and revolutionizes the economy.
3) Non-anonymous crypto dominates and is centralized under governmental authority.

Banking interest are going to be pushing hard for option three as such a solution could be used to retire the existing fiat debt while allowing the current system to limp along for a few more years.
However, even if this occurs it would simply be the equivalent of resetting the system back to the mid 1920s. The same forces that drove us off of the gold standard would lead to the eventual conversion of the centralized crypto into fiat, debasement and eventual failure.

I am hoping for #2 in the near future but it remains possible that humanity has to go through a few more cycles of #3 before we figure it out. I remain optimistic that collapse into mad max while definitely possible can be avoided.


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May 22, 2014, 01:08:47 AM
 #240

---------------------------- Original Message ----------------------------
Subject: There will never be effective planning in government (not even in  China)
From:    AnonyMint
Date:    Wed, May 21, 2014 9:07 pm
To:      "Armstrong Economics" <armstrongeconomics@gmail.com>
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/05/21/21188/

Quote from: Armstrong
VA Scandal – More Evidence that Government is INCAPABLE
of Planning

...

Give the people FULL coverage in the private sector and that just may
spark a reality check that these wars are going to COST a lot more money
that people thought so perhaps they will not be so eager to wage war on
the world.

Martin, it is clear from your posts about China that you admire their 5
and 10 year top-down central planning. You've even written that when you
were in China you saw them observing the prices of everything (even 64
variants of tea) and you admired that they didn't intervene but just
collected data to understand the markets.

You think that government can be made to act rationally if for example
term limits are implemented in the West.

What you fail to understand is that China's planning is an abject failure.
China is rising only because their people were so undervalued relative to
the rest of the world, not because as you attribute to some brilliance of
Communist planning. It was just time (as you often say about your cycles
model).

The coming Knowledge Revolution is going to shred these top-down planning
paradigms (the globalist agenda is a paradigm of passive capital being
defeated and the rise of the individualized capital in the Knowledge Age).
The people will rise to direct power via the power of decentralized
technologies on the network.

You are entirely missing the real trend at hand. Your mind is still stuck
in your political and high-end money manager connections. All of you are
going to become increasingly irrelevant.

I again refer you to the following threads to bring yourself up to speed
on the fledgling trend at hand:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=557732.msg6078778#msg6078778

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=355212.0

Educate yourself by reading carefully the above threads.

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