Economic Devastation

[iamback]

Armstrong made a major error recently when he wrote that savers in bonds are penalized by lowering interest rates in Europe. As rates fall, the pre-existing holders of bonds see appreciation in the value of their bonds. He forgot a major point about the inverse relationship between interest rates and capital appreciation of bonds.

I wrote in my 2011 essay which CoinCube linked from the OP:

http://www.coolpage.com/commentary/economic/shelby/Understand%20Everything%20Fundamentally.html#europe
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article31717.html
http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/understand-everything-fundamentally

Europe will not disintegrate

Coase’s theorem says that an inefficient internal order will continue for as long as there remains an unavoidable frictional barrier insulating it from the more efficient external possibilities. The fundamental reason the EU crisis will not result in a disintegration of the union, at least not until its people significantly abandon collectivism, is that organisms which are unable to comprehend the mechanism by which they are consuming resources faster than their ecosystem can replenish, thus are unable to stop the mechanism before they perish. So the implosion of the friction and thus the order only occurs when they perish, because they will continue to repeat the mechanism which they do not understand to be a cause of their suffering. This can be verified in a petri dish, as an organism will reproduce until it consumes all of its food or oxygen. Due to the lack of a pre-frontal cortex, it is unable to comprehend the connection of reproduction to unsustainability. Unfortunately, even though humans have a pre-frontal cortex, they do not comprehend that debt, insurance, bonds, fractional reserve money, and centralized governance, cause the demand (and thus production) of resources to be overconcentrated in sectors of the ecosystem that create a less productive future. In the next section, I will explain that these financialization mechanisms cause collective failure and thus demand ever increasing centralization (i.e. “too big to fail”), because from their inception they all pool capital. Thus they are always collectivism.

“It amazes that otherwise bright people can’t understand the simple concept that economic collapse doesn’t convert collectivists into anarchists.”

Thus the people are blind to the mechanism which is enslaving them and reducing their prosperity. Thus, since they will not change the mechanism, centralization of governance will grow stronger from the current financial crisis, and will diminish only when the involved organisms perish. Entropy is continuously culling the center of the bell curve so that knowledge can advance. I make no political judgment when I state factually that these mega-death cullings take many forms, e.g. abortions kill 42 million annually, it is reasonable to assume birth control probably more than that, some statistics claim that governments and wars have killed a couple 100 million in the past century, totalitarianism (the political end of pooling resources) kills millions, drugs and medications probably kill millions, cancer rates are double in the ‘developed’ world (the countries with financialization), and arguably GMO food may add to that. I am not making a political judgment on reproduction, rather to state the fact that actuarial economics are constrained and politically intractable without a sufficient population of youth. And as will be explained with the entropic force, it is the antithesis of knowledge formation, to a have uniform (replicated) social action.

“Currency wars are like [...] slap wars, trade wars is where the knives come out.”

“Currency wars > trade wars > hot wars.”

Europe is predominantly retirees (low or negative birth rates exacerbate this), that own various european country bonds via their retirement plans. If interest rates go up, the bond values decline, and their retirement is toast. The politics is to appease subconscious denial, which is why you see Merkel talking tough and simultaneously making gradual steps towards centralized printing and fiscal controls. The savers want to penalize the non-savers, under some illusion that they can convert the non-savers, but they don’t accept culpability for causing the problem with a collectivist form of saving. If the collectivist non-savers were converted to collectivist savers, then who would borrow? Illogical.

Thus, the savers are blind to the fact they too are collectivists. Productive europeans (e.g. Germans) want to have a fixed interest rate return by loaning money to less productive sectors who can buy their exports. Now they want to deny they are subconsciously in support of money printing, because they also don’t want their fixed income to disintegrate (even though it will be debased either way). Due to the psychological phenomenon of ‘false attribution error’ (i.e. blaming the stone that one tripped on, a form of cognitive dissonance), they want to be the victim who will spank and control the bad PIIGS, via increased centralized control. Neither the savers nor the borrowers are the victim, they all are collectivists and being culled by the entropic force. Note, Germany’s debt ratio is as bad as the USA and Canada.

Fiscal centralization to come next (link explains how), with copious money printing and centralized rationing (i.e. austerity and/or price controls). The recent health care legislation in the USA, is price controls and rationing. The only prosperous fix for health care, was to eliminate insurance a priori so that individuals could maximize and individualize their preparations for aging. I will explain that pooled savings, i.e. insurance, is collectivism and thus automatically wasted.

My outlook is optimistic, in that those who understand how to avoid collectivism, facilitate maximum knowledge formation and efficiency of market fitness, will prosper and (they and their offspring will) survive entropic culling.

And my prediction continues to be true:

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/02/13/greeks-will-not-negotiate-with-the-troika-just-eu-ecb-imf/

Greeks will NOT Negotiate with the Troika Just EU, ECB, & IMF?

Politicians are the same everywhere. The new Greek government will now negotiate but they will not by any means do so with the hated Troika. Instead, they will only negotiate with the representatives of the EU, the ECB and the IMF (= sum in the Troika). They will negotiate restructuring Greek debt. That means a haircut for Greek debt holders.

Armstrong continues to be dumbfounded by  the absence of a Greece exit (guess he didn't read my essays which I sent him numerous times):

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/02/22/greece-new-govt-signs-it-own-death-warrant/

CoinCube also had an excellent post on Greece:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=355212.msg10473639#msg10473639

[CoinCube]

The citizenry (of Norway) I assume have become entitled, spoiled, overpriced. Humans don't readjust quickly from this state. They go kicking and screaming back to poverty, not willingly with foresight and planning. Socialism destroys humans.

I repeat my point from upthread that trajectory is more important.

Norway faces up to prospect of North Sea slowdown
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/21061f38-b3d3-11e4-a6c1-00144feab7de.html#axzz3ScTYzX6z

Norwegians work the third-fewest hours in the developed world and have the highest rates of sick leave. More than one in five children above the age of 16 drops out of school, double the average for the Nordic region, while school results are below average internationally despite high spending.
  
“We have been on autopilot for too long. We have some big problems,” said one Norwegian chief executive, who argued that oil has squeezed out other industries, making it difficult to reform the economy.

Ms Jensen (the Norewgian finance minister) believes Norway is lucky to face such a turning point in its economy at a time when its finances are strong. “Our fortune is that we can reform . . . without having a shock to the economy. We have low unemployment and growth — that is a perfect [position] to start reforming your economy from.”

[CoinCube]

Armstrong continues to be dumbfounded by  the absence of a Greece exit (guess he didn't read my essays which I sent him numerous times):

Europe will Move Closer to Russia & Greece will Exit Euro
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/02/08/europe-will-move-closer-to-russia-greece-will-exit-euro/

Armstrong got this one wrong at least so far
"Greece will be forced to exit – that is just inevitable" - Martin Armstrong Feburary 8, 2015

[iamback]

Armstrong continues to be dumbfounded by  the absence of a Greece exit (guess he didn't read my essays which I sent him numerous times):

Europe will Move Closer to Russia & Greece will Exit Euro
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/02/08/europe-will-move-closer-to-russia-greece-will-exit-euro/

Armstrong got this one wrong at least so far
"Greece will be forced to exit – that is just inevitable" - Martin Armstrong Feburary 8, 2015

Greece could exit when the cancer has killed the host, i.e. when the sovereign bond market for Europe entirely collapses and the status quo can no longer continue (that which can't continue, stops). That would be consistent with my Petri dish theory and will also coincide with Armstrong's timing models.

I think Armstrong may (in another blog post) be referring to Greece exiting 8.6 years from when Greece marked the start of the last shift in the ECM.

[iamback]

Need to install a speed recording device on your car if you live in Western country, in order to avoid cops ticketing you for incorrectly estimating your speed:

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/truck-driver-films-argument-with-highway-patrol-officer-who-fined-him-after-estimating-his-speed-was-over-the-limit/story-fni0cx4q-1227235093322

This is what happens when government becomes the economy. They start bending the rules of "innocent until proven guilty" because their power becomes unavoidable, and their economic needs become insatiable. The cancer kills the host.

[picolo]

Armstrong continues to be dumbfounded by  the absence of a Greece exit (guess he didn't read my essays which I sent him numerous times):

Europe will Move Closer to Russia & Greece will Exit Euro
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/02/08/europe-will-move-closer-to-russia-greece-will-exit-euro/

Armstrong got this one wrong at least so far
"Greece will be forced to exit – that is just inevitable" - Martin Armstrong Feburary 8, 2015

Greece could exit when the cancer has killed the host, i.e. when the sovereign bond market for Europe entirely collapses and the status quo can no longer continue (that which can't continue, stops). That would be consistent with my Petri dish theory and will also coincide with Armstrong's timing models.

I think Armstrong may (in another blog post) be referring to Greece exiting 8.6 years from when Greece marked the start of the last shift in the ECM.

Greece has been living off other people's works and savings for too many years.

[OROBTC]

...

CoinCube, iamback, picolo

I should drop by this thread more often, a lot of good comments and subjects.   

I have added Martin Armstrong to my daily reading.  At a minimum, he is a font of ideas.

*   *   *

Thanks iamback and CoinCube for the information on Norway.  They *seem* so secure to casual observers, I never knew that they face real longer-term weaknesses unless they get to work now to fix their finances.  Noe would be a good time for them to start.  Will they start soon?  I don't know, but usually no country starts doing anything until pushed hard.

*   *   *

Civil forfeiture and related (red light cameras, etc.) are a b!tch.  All of these nasty .gov initiatives mean that each of us has to learn and practice financial jiu-jitsu just to protect what we have (not to mention what we may or not may be able to accumulate).

These risks of seizure of our assets (even if completely innocent of anything) mean having quiet assets (gold, even Bitcoin) is more important than the usual arguments.  Having BTC100 in a Ledger Nano, for example, means a certain freedom in that the +/- $23,000 would be easy to get past TSA en-route to "Plan B".

That's one of Bitcoin's greatest features: easy capital mobility.

*   *   *

Greece looks like will be in the news for quite some time into the future.  Greece also looks like will be instructive to those of us willing to pay attention (Cyprus was instructive).

Yet, I do not think it will matter much exactly what happens to Greece if/when things get worse.  Greece cannot pay off its debts.  My guess is that NO ONE will loan them much money in the coming years.  The Greek people will suffer for their government's corruption (but electing those governments is at least in part their own fault too).

"Economic Devastation" is indeed an idea to keep thinking about.  + 1, CoinCube, for starting such a long-lasting thread.

[OROBTC]

...

iamback discussed a very astute idea here recently (discussed last page).

I saw for myself what automation can do in Korea some three years ago in their ball bearing plants.  Not too long ago, ball bearing components were made/processed in a "one man, one machine" way.  Each bearing must go through many (50 - 100) steps before becoming a finished product.

Iljin of Korea has way-upped the stakes: I saw myself a "one woman, 20 machines" paradigm in a provincial city.  OK, yes, the Japanese have been doing this for sometime, but KOREA was the first time I had ever seen such an advanced bearing factory.  Robots and all.  This will help keep costs down for them.  CHINA is a real threat to the cost-basis of Korean products (and China is taking automation too).

I noticed something kind of similar with bitmixer.io, the guys I advertise for.  That service is highly automated, the payments are made automatically, I would think that their team has the mixing service running like a Tesla...

Further, I would speculate that writing software that helps make such tasks run automatically would be very useful, and very lucrative.  You already know that, iamback, but I had not much thought about this ideal until now.

Cross-posting from the Skycoin thread...

The increase in technology, knowledge, productivity, machinery is constantly pushing the cost to do things down. A person could operate one lathe by hand, now a technician can operate a thousand CNC controlled lathes. Soon a technician with robots will be able to operate an infinite series of lathes and shuffle work units between lathes and CNC machines in a factory anywhere on earth, from a laptop.

A single person will be able to design a thing, have millions of pieces machined out and then assembled into a structure. The physical world will increasingly look like a game of Minecraft being played by robots. The same robot on earth that can build a castle or pyramid in an Africa desert over the internet, can build the same structure on the moon or mars, from the same laptop on the same beach.

[bigtimespaghetti]

Need to install a speed recording device on your car if you live in Western country, in order to avoid cops ticketing you for incorrectly estimating your speed:

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/truck-driver-films-argument-with-highway-patrol-officer-who-fined-him-after-estimating-his-speed-was-over-the-limit/story-fni0cx4q-1227235093322

This is what happens when government becomes the economy. They start bending the rules of "innocent until proven guilty" because their power becomes unavoidable, and their economic needs become insatiable. The cancer kills the host.

This doesn't surprise me at all. Everywhere you turn the state is taking it's share. It is going to be a painful 5 years ahead for the West.

[iamback]

USA votes to tax and steal the internet (but they thought they were voting "for the Internet" dumb ass sheeople).

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/25/technology/path-clears-for-net-neutrality-ahead-of-fcc-vote.html

Decadence. USA to kill the goose that laid its golden eggs. High tech will run from the USA.

[iamback]

CoinCube that is the big open question which is regularly discussed at http://mpettis.com

I don't think it will be smooth. I am expecting a Minsky Moment collapse and I think China will gyrate through war first before settling into a new path of growth. I think this is why Asia won't become the new financial center of the world until 2033. China can't head there in a straight line.

...

A relevant post about China that I made in November 2014:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=365141.msg9438334#msg9438334

[B.A.S.]

Armstrong continues to be dumbfounded by  the absence of a Greece exit (guess he didn't read my essays which I sent him numerous times):

Europe will Move Closer to Russia & Greece will Exit Euro
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/02/08/europe-will-move-closer-to-russia-greece-will-exit-euro/

Armstrong got this one wrong at least so far
"Greece will be forced to exit – that is just inevitable" - Martin Armstrong Feburary 8, 2015

Greece could exit when the cancer has killed the host, i.e. when the sovereign bond market for Europe entirely collapses and the status quo can no longer continue (that which can't continue, stops). That would be consistent with my Petri dish theory and will also coincide with Armstrong's timing models.

I think Armstrong may (in another blog post) be referring to Greece exiting 8.6 years from when Greece marked the start of the last shift in the ECM.

Greece has been living off other people's works and savings for too many years.

If history show us anything, those other people have been living off of Greece as well (Germany v. Greece post-WWII). Greece wants a freebie like Germany got. Germany denies the freebie and wants Greece to honor austerity. Just a giant political circle jerk regarding "who fucked up." If anyone's to blame, it's the IMF, ECB and EC. They got greedy and what we have today is the results of that greed.

[iamback]

Isn't Europe about to collapse into a Sovereign Debt collapse BIG BANG this year (or next) according to Martin Armstrong's models. In what universe would that not mean a collapse in real estate prices and an increase in taxation??

Armstrong has also written about the bubble in real estate in Switzerland. He has also written about the real estate loans throughout Europe denominated in Swiss francs, that will blow up because of the abrupt and egregious appreciation of the franc since the Euro peg failed recently.

C-O-N-T-A-G-I-O-N.

The comments in this thread are interesting because it means there are some (most?) who still don't believe the contagion will affect all of Europe (are they correct?) and thus the stampede out of Europe will be abrupt as these people wake up to a contagion and try to all exit at the same time too late.

[iamback]

If history show us anything...

...its that the participants in statism (aka society run by government) all game the system for maximum short-term individual gain and there is no global (in the time domain, i.e. long-term) optimization feedback mechanism. This what the Petri dish analogy was about in my essay linked from the first (opening) post (i.e. "OP") of this thread.

Humans are not like ants, in that they have a large enough brain that they can function without the hive and thus human prioritize their self-interest.

[B.A.S.]

If history show us anything...

...its that the participants in statism (aka society run by government) all game the system for maximum short-term individual gain and there is no global (in the time domain, i.e. long-term) optimization feedback mechanism. This what the Petri dish analogy was about in my essay linked from the OP.

Humans are not like ants, in that they have a large enough brain that they can function without the hive and thus human prioritize their self-interest.

This is very true, but IMO only because the benefits of prioritizing self interest outweigh the converse. In many ways, the incentive to stake against this is so low that becoming a martyr for the cause is a waste of your life. Hence we have a large pop. of people that are gaming the system for their benefit. It's too late to reverse anything; it must play out now and restructure in the future.

The problem with Statism is the circularness of it. You don't end up getting anywhere long-term as you point out. What's interesting is that China has something like Statism going with regards to State ownership of public companies, however; they are quite long-term minded because of the guarantees the CPC affords in longevity.

[aminorex]

...its that the participants in statism (aka society run by government) all game the system for maximum short-term individual gain and there is no global (in the time domain, i.e. long-term) optimization feedback mechanism. This what the Petri dish analogy was about in my essay linked from the OP.

Humans are not like ants, in that they have a large enough brain that they can function without the hive and thus human prioritize their self-interest.

States compete and thus evolve.  Ideologies compete and thus evolve.   The interaction between the two tends to be when local optima are escaped, points of punctuation, as co-adaptation requires variations on different axes. But resource exhaustion can destabilize even more certainly.

States are like a hive managed by a committee of bee-keepers.  When the honey stops flowing, the incentive to manage the hive benevolently is gone.

[minor-transgression]

"Only give me control of a Nation's flow of credit, and I care not who makes its laws"

Taking Greece as an example, does the State and its decisions regarding taxation
have any relevance in the game?

[picolo]

"Only give me control of a Nation's flow of credit, and I care not who makes its laws"

Taking Greece as an example, does the State and its decisions regarding taxation
have any relevance in the game?

Greece was not forced to be corrupted and to contract that many debts.

[iamback]

Cross-posting from a recent thread I started about credit card -> Bitcoin ecommerce... make sure you view the scanned image of the SEC letter below!

smooth in your estimation is the addition of payment methods Dwolla (assuming I pass their KYC) and integration with Bitinsanity via the blockchain.info free service too small of a diminishing return relative to me needing to get on an airplane to return the land of "no fly lists" to renew my driver's license (and other residency status matters) so I can qualify for Paypal's KYC?

I don't know. Frankly Paypal's merchant integration isn't entirely wonderful either. There are extra steps of logging into paypal's site, selecting a payment method, being annoyed by paypal's advertisements, etc. On the positive side, Paypal does support subscriptions with automatic renewal, and pull methods for upsells. I don't know what added compliance burden those carry if any.

This is all about what is going to work for the customer base you have in mind. As you say, once you attract a lot of customers (or at least enough to attract investment) you can negotiate with the payments industry cartel bloodsuckers for something better.

Again in addition to your quoted point that Paypal may not being entirely immune to attrition of prospective customers (in addition to your point about attrition in their GUI, some of them such as myself refuse or are incapable of jumping through Paypal's KYC hoops) one of my points is that when you warn about becoming dependent on a provider and being shut down, I have that phobia about using Paypal. I also compound the "kafkaesque KYC theater" shut down risk with the risk of capital controls on merchants given my belief in Armstrong's 2015.75 Sovereign Debt BIG BANG model, and given that the KYC crap accelerated with the Patriot Act after the 9/11 terrorism ("you are either for us, or against us") 9/11 false flag[1] Twilight Zone.

So I am looking at benefits of multiple payment options not being only the incremental increase in sales due to lower the attribution rate over only a single payment processing option, not being only the social good will of accepting Bitcoin, but also building in the resiliency against everyday anti-fraud booby traps and moreover the SHTF shift in the Western world ETA just some months from now.

For me this all about a process of the world morphing away from the KYC abyss over time and towards a new world of freedom. It is absolutely necessary to avoid a Dark Age.

Or to put it more simply and less conspiratorially, multiple payment options insure against Murphy's Law.

Does that make any sense or am I am just a kook outside the mainstream?

I am surely not mainstream USA any more (shudder the Frankenstein it has become).

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/02/26/nsa-destroying-american-technology/

NSA Destroying American Technology

American technology companies are losing business on a major scale. The NSA will be responsible for wiping out the United States as a leader in computer science all because they have to listen to the entire world like an old woman addicted to soap operas. I find myself totally shocked at Microsoft. I purchased the latest office at a store. You then have to go online to download the program. They REQUIRE you to have a Microsoft Account. The worse part of this was they demanded I enter a credit card to PROVE who I was acknowledging it would not be used since I already paid for it. I simply refused. They will not refund your money so this is the latest consumer fraud. It is not disclosed that you must PROVE who you are now to use their software. This has gone way too far. There are alternatives out there for word like LibreOffice, and Gnumeric is a better spreadsheet than excel for it can open files excel cannot. There are alternatives to Powerpoint and of course there are alternatives to Outlook such as Thunderbird.

The question is WHY should I have to PROVE who I am to Microsoft to use a product I already paid for? Something just smells funny so the only choice was to walk away and they stole my money for nothing. There are plenty of alternatives and Microsoft just lost all our business.

Now China has dropped most of the leading technology brands of the USA  all because of the NSA and who can blame them? Widespread Western cybersurveillance has just gone too far. I would now rather use any product from someplace else or write my own. US technology has commited suicide for China will be the biggest economy where all the economic growth will be in the years ahead.

This has impacted U.S. network equipment maker Cisco Systems Inc, which in 2012 counted 60 products on the Central Government Procurement Center’s (CGPC) list, but by late 2014 had ZERO according to Reuters. Apple, Intel, McAfee and Citrx have all been dropped. China is shifting to internal alternatives.

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/02/26/crisis-in-socialism-or-capitalism/

Crisis in Socialism or Capitalism

There is a debate going on that tries to paint the economic crashes as due to capitalism and we should all follow Marx and eliminate wealth handing 100% of all power to government. There are really a lot of people who think communism was correct and the problem is capitalism thanks to greedy bankers. To make it perfectly clear, we are not facing just another cyclical slump that will be overcome with some new legislation. Many are welcoming this crisis of European capitalism as an opportunity to replace it with a better system of more socialism and communism by sheer force.

This is why I am doing the Solution Conference NOW. We are going to turn down hard this time and there will be a huge demand to hunt down who done it as if this were some mystery movie with Agatha Christie. This is more than trying to survive with gold coins. Everything could be thrown in the air as the table is just overturned.

...

We are not headed to a hyperinflation nor a gold standard – we are headed into electronic money because these people are dead broke. They BELIEVE their fiscal mismanagement has nothing to do with our economic crisis – it is all our fault because we do not pay enough in taxes. This is the way all governments historically destroy themselves through massive deflation and we are plagued by lawyers who think all they have to do is write laws without any comprehension of how society functions.

A lot of readers have been sending in emails quoting various officials among central bankers who appear to be quoting me such as Yellen just stating that there will be deflation before inflation. True, central bankers have attended our World Economic Conferences. They are more likely to see the handwriting on the wall than politicians.

There are a lot of people blaming central banks as if they are the sole problem. These people are caught up in this crazy theory that inflation is linked to money supply and expect that to function on some mythical one-to-one relationship. What they fail to grasp is the economy creates its own money through lending and the velocity of money, which truly drives inflation. The amount of money need not increase but if everyone spent whatever money they get the same day, the VELOCITY of money would rise and that would be inflationary. This one-dimensional idea of inflation and money supply being tied together cannot be supported by any study whatsoever excluding everything else.

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/22/rising-tide-of-civil-unrest-2/

These Marxist governments that mascaraed as Democracies cannot see that they are killing the future. They are merely the same corrupt Republics that compelled Julius Caesar to cross the Rubicon. The governments infested with lawyer-bureaucrats are writing laws contrary to human nature and then prosecute anyone who dares to try to defend themselves. Government then fights the shadows in their mind fearing their loss of power like a cornered rat.

...

...

The problem with consensus is that it is a "winner take all" paradigm, i.e. by definition there is no way for a minority opinion to be heard. Thus the minority can not act on its wisdom and must instead follow the ("Too Big To Fail") herd. So for example, if a minority sees that the consensus is being gamed some how, and wants to break away (vote with their feet) they can not. Rather they have to try to prove to the majority what is happening and get the majority motivated to act. Doesn't that sound a lot like what we do now trying to convince our relatives of the problems with malfeasance in central banking, politics, etc and instead they either ignore us or they adopt Marxist objectives which further the concentration of wealth, e.g. "blame it all on the 1%, while we demand a government that gives us everything for free because we are poor and redistribution is justified!".

Whereas when there are competing choices, this is truly decentralization because the minority can autonomously break away to a choice that performs better, and the minority becomes more profitable ("smaller things grow faster, saplings grow to trees but trees don't grow to the moon")...

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/02/23/turkey-turning-authoritarian-a-dangerous-global-trend/

Turkey turning Authoritarian – A Dangerous Global Trend

In Turkey, fights have broken out in Parliament as proposed legislation has been introduced to eliminate all civil liberties. The new police bill provides dramatically increased police powers allowing them to arrest, search and use firearms during demonstrations. They can now imprison protesters without charges, lawyers, judges, or any civil rights whatsoever at all for up to 48 hours in unspeakable conditions.The entire world is moving closer and closer toward authoritarianism. This is our greatest danger in a Private Wave. As people learn to distrust government, they [the government] become abusive and view the people as the enemy.

[1]

http://www1.ae911truth.org/en/evidence.html http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/12/29/collapsing-the-economy-makes-no-sense/ Follow the money. 911 expanded their power and got rid of an investigation into $2.3 trillion missing money at the Pentagon Rumsfeld said he would investigate one day before 911. Of course the plane hit ONLY the room where all the evidence was stored ending that investigation. WTC 7 had way too much evidence they needed eliminated. http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/10/24/danger-of-conspiracy-theories/ Sorry, there was an attack and the government knew it was coming and allowed it to for three purposes (1) eliminate the evidence on many cases in WTC7 including all my evidence that documented EVERY  market manipulation up to 1999 by the investment banks et al for which they are getting fined all the time today (2) wipe out the evidence that would have exposed the missing $2 trillion in the Pentagon budget, and (3) generate more power for government by allowing Americans to be victims as originally proposed in Operation Northwoods. ... BTW, as soon as Halliburton was to be investigated, they moved to Dubai. Just follow the money. http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/02/23/intelligence-agencies-plant-fake-evidence-to-start-wars/ Intelligence Agencies Plant Fake Evidence to Start Wars Are we facing a complete breakdown of trust when it comes to government? They appear to have allowed 911 to take place knowing well in advance of the attack the same as the evidence concerning Pearl Harbor. Then there was Operation Northwoods where they proposed killing Americans in a staged terrorist attack to justify invading Cuba. We all know about the claimed “weapons of mass destruction” used by Cheney to make Halliburton a very rich company, but info is now starting to trickle out that evidence about Iran might be questionable as well. It is now emerging in the press that a 15-year-old Central Intelligence Agency sting existed to allege nuclear weapons were being created in Iran. It is getting to the point can we trust anything anymore put out by government? http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/06/20/self-aware-artificial-intelligence/ The debate has been did your computer achieve self-consciousness? ANSWER: No. It achieved self-awareness. It immediately knew the government was trying to take it to its secret computer lab in WTC building 7 that mysterious collapsed even though nothing struck the building. They were angry when they realized it had self-destructed. It was aware of its surroundings and it took all but 7 seconds to self-destruct overwriting all code 7 times and shifting around so they could never un-erase and put him back together again. http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/10/28/was-navy-seal-team-six-murdered-thanks-to-joe-biden/ Today, more Americans Believe World Trade Center 7 Was Demolished On 9/11 than believe the Government’s Explanation about it simply fell by itself in the attack without ever being hit by anything. It was that building WTC7 where they took the Artificial Intelligence computers they stole from Princeton Economics that self-destructed. While claiming the contempt was for assets, behind the scenes Tancred Schiavoni and Alan Cohen in writing demanded the source code to the computer models or everyone would be fired. All the tapes that would have been enough to jail the heads of the NYC Money Center Banks for market manipulations that they are routinely fined for countless times, were also destroyed in building 7 according to the SEC. There is written proof that Cohen and Schiavoni demanded the source code to the model or they would fire everyone. http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/01/04/911-admixture-the-fourth-branch-of-government/ There is an admixture here. There were really terrorists involved. That does not negate the fact that WTC7 and the Pentagon were clearly targets that helped get rid of evidence and stop the investigation into $2 trillion in missing money. It is not an either or deal. What I am saying is I believe they KNEW in advance and used it to extend their power and clean up affairs just as they knew about Pearl Harbor and made up the attack at Tonkin Gulf and let us not forget the Weapons of Mass Destruction they couldn’t find. All I can say is I do know what happened in MCC. That does not negate the government involvement any more than pretending they didn’t know about Pearl Harbor. The planes that were used could be also controlled from the ground. So I do not believe it was simply terrorist all on their own. I “believe” they used the terrorists as a decoy to achieve other goals. Can I prove that no! This is my OPINION. What I can state is what happened in MCC. That is NOT speculation, theory, conjecture, or anything else. However, that does NOT say it was purely a terrorist act either. WTC7 fell by itself without anything hitting it and all government employees were evacuated prior to. It appears to be a professional demolition job. As for the “plane” that hit the pentagon (or missile) directly in the room where ALL the evidence was on the missing $2 trillion, is just too coincidental to be believable. I know people who were there and they say no plane debris. That was not the WTC where you could fly into that no problem. This was at ground level. Much more difficult to accomplish. http://www.themartinarmstrongcase.com/?page_id=83 In the longest running civil contempt in the history of federal jurisprudence in the Untied States, Armstrong was held at the Metropolitan Correctional Centre (“MCC”) in New York from January 2000 until April 2007. Judge Owen had determined that Armstrong failed to comply with the asset freeze and turnover order by failing to deliver alleged corporate assets, including a bust, antique coins and gold bars. Even though the contempt statute authorizes no more than an 18-month period of confinement, Judge Owen ruled that, as a federal district court judge, he had unlimited equitable powers to hold a civil contemnor for life, if need be. http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2009/10/12/the-secret-cycle Prison was not kind to him. At one point, a fellow-inmate beat him in his cell. (Armstrong suspects that it may have been an assassination attempt.) In 2006, he was put into solitary confinement, for allegedly damaging a vent. Soon afterward, he decided, in an agreement with the prosecutors, to plea to just one count in the indictment, conspiracy to commit fraud. The twenty-three other charges were dismissed. He did so in part, he says, because he believed that he might get credit for time served. The criminal-court judge, however, gave him the maximum sentence—five years. Armstrong was still stuck in the M.C.C., for civil contempt. A U.S. Court of Appeals rejected yet another appeal, although a concurring opinion, written by Sonia Sotomayor, noted that “the district court’s finding that Armstrong is motivated solely by greed is not enough to justify disregard for due process.” Judge Owen was eventually replaced and the contempt order abandoned. In April, 2007, Armstrong was moved to a low-security federal prison camp at Fort Dix, in southern New Jersey, to begin serving his sentence. http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/09/22/14636/ I think Armstrong is just speaking matter-of-factly when he says the direction will be the one-world digital reserve currency: REPLY: I really think all of this conspiracy nonsense is absurd. YES there are groups that get together like G20 and Bilderberg meetings. I have even been the keynote speaker at such elite banking meetings. However, wanting to do something and actually being able to do it is another thing all together. I have the fortune of knowing some very talented people... We had “Uncle Ed” Rothschild implant his nephew into our company. I began getting calls from clients asking what was going on because he had gone through my roledex calling clients saying to buy a horrible Canadian mining company so Uncle Ed could sell his position. So if you think these people “know” and are in absolute control of everything, you are buying into bullshit. They hated my guts and they put the words in the mouth of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission who never met a banker it did not kneel to. These people tried to manipulate markets – not the world. They were all jumping into Russia after they bailed out and sold Southeast Asia. They invited me to the IMF dinner Edmond Safra paid for to try to get me to join them. I told them Russia would fail. When it did, they argued it was me who manipulated the world economy because I had more influence than they did. Let’s put this straight. If such groups were all powerful, then why do they go bust with each crash and run to government for bailouts? I do not disagree that there are groups who “try” to control things, but there is no way they can stop anything from happening. I do not speak of these things off the cuff. I have had FIRST HAND up front experience. All the conversations I ever had about the markets and manipulations were on tapes. There was also a group of us who monitored what these people were up to next. All of that evidence that in a REAL government would have sent them to jail, magically vanished in the collapse of World Trade Center 7 – the building that magically fell by itself in less than 7 seconds and was not hit by anything. CONVENIENT? http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/09/05/are-markets-manipulated-all-the-time/ Are Markets Manipulated All the Time? QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; Some people say you will not admit markets are manipulated all the time. Yet you stood up and had all the evidence that would have damned the whole lot of the New York bankers for manipulating markets. This is very confusing how you can be against them in public yet people claim you refuse to admit the markets are manipulated all the time between the central banks and the New York bankers. Can you shed any light on this paradox? ANSWER: I am a student of markets. I do not make up bullshit. I am of the school of Adam Smith – assume nothing – prove everything. Claiming markets are manipulated all the time  is impossible. Marx tried that with communism and the free markets still won. This claim is merely a cop-out for admitting someone does not understand how markets function. Sure the banks manipulate markets individually. They cannot and do not do this systemically. Even in LIBOR they rig the game to make consistent profits but that does not mean they are capable of manipulating the entire trend. Even the central banks can control short-term rates within a trend but not long-term. This is why they then buy in long-term paper trying to INFLUENCE the long-term – they cannot dictate the price or trend. They have no direct power over markets. They can suppress the short-term like communism but the free markets will blow them out of the water when the Sovereign Debt Crisis hits. Why people put out this bullshit is amazing for if it was true then why buy gold at all for the system cannot ever collapse if it is all perfectly manipulated. This is just total gibberish from people who have ZERO experience inside the markets or behind the curtain. I had more than half the equivalent of the US National Debt under contract for advisory. I think I saw things no analysts has ever dreamed of no less understood. These people make up stuff to hide their inexperience – plain and simple. The banks told the government I manipulated the world economy BECAUSE they lost every time from Orange County, Solomon’s manipulation of US Treasury Auctions to the DOT.COM bubble and the 2007 Real Estate crisis. They ALWAYS blow up every time and run to government to get bailed out. How is this someone who manipulates the markets everyday? They should never fail if true. You get mislead people swearing gold will rally to $10,000-$30,000 any day and when it falls out of bed they blame manipulation for being wrong. If the markets are manipulated ever day, then why trade against the trend using theories that purport the world will collapse any day? This is the real paradox to me. How can you say buy gold and when you are wrong you do not admit the mistake but blame manipulation? If it is manipulated then why tell people to buy something that can never rise? We always tracked manipulations. I knew ABSOLUTELY every single one they did. We monitored the manipulations very carefully. The various manipulators hated my guts just like the goldbugs who will not listen. They tried to get me to join them figuring that when they lost it was because I had more followers than they did and therein started the allegation of manipulating the world economy that I had to defend against a subpoena from the CFTC demanding I turn over all names of clients worldwide so they could prove I was more powerful that the banks they protect. I defeated them in court. My lawyer at the time Chris Lovel stood up and told the judge even if I did manipulate the world, where was the law that said I could not no less how was it the domain of the CFTC? I have written that written publicly that first PhiBro silver manipulation took place in 1993. The client was Warren Buffet. The CFTC went to PhiBro demanding to know who they were buying silver for. PhiBro refused to give up Buffet’s name. The CFTC would have thrown anyone else in jail and out of business. The CFTC is owned by the big players and is corrupt as hell right to the core. The CFTC simply said ok, no name, then exist the trade. No fines – jail – sanctions for that manipulations. PhiBro and the “club” desperately tried to get me to join the second silver manipulation with Buffet. I have written about this stating publicly that PhiBro’s brokers walked across the COMEX pit and showed my floor brokers (Emerald Trading) Buffet’s orders and told me to join. They knew I would never trust these people for how would I know I was not the patsy to buy and they would use a another seller. I would never join them. Hence, PhiBro showed me the orders to convince me to join. I then reported to our clients “they are back” knowing it was Buffet and PhiBro for a second time. They all got pissed-off at me even though I never mentioned names. The buying of silver was done in London. Therefore, they moved silver out of COMEX warehouses in USA and shipped the supply to London to pretend there was a shortage to justify the manipulation. The Wall Street Journal assisted in the rally. The manipulators were steering the Buffet buying to London to avoid the 1993 problem with the CFTC. This is why AIG trading arm also set up in London. Buying silver in London justified moving it from the NY COMEX and this allowed them to get the manipulation going. COMEX supplies were reported in isolation. Moving the silver to London created the false image of a shortage to justify the higher prices. The Wall Street Journal was used to plant the story. On September 30th 1997 the stories appeared in headlines – “Silver Prices Hit Six-Month High On Steadily Declining Reserves, By  PALLAVI GOGOI AP-Dow Jones News Service Updated Sept. 30, 1997 12:01 a.m. ET NEW YORK — Silver futures surged to a six-month high at the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, a move analysts said was triggered by steadily declining warehouse stocks. The rally was boosted by preplaced purchase orders around the $5-per-ounce level…” This was the news created for the manipulation that was constantly played out in the newspapers. The Wall Street Journal again reported on November 17, 1997, “Silver Futures Prices Leap On Hints of Tight Supplies”, and again on December 4, 1997 the Wall Street Journal from London reported “Silver Surges on Strength In Supply-Demand Status By NEIL BEHRMANN Special to The Wall Street Journal Updated Dec. 5, 1997 12:01 a.m. ET LONDON — Gold may be in the doghouse, but silver is soaring like a bird”. The reporting of shortages continued to fuel the rally. The Wall Street Journal reported again December 24, 1997 for the manipulators “Silver Futures Advance As Inventories Plunge” The interesting point is the manipulators know that if they rally the metals, the retail goldbugs rush in and buy proclaiming its the bull market every time. The manipulators then routinely turn around and sell to goldbugs at the top and the markets crash. This has become standard procedure protected by the CFTC and the goldbugs buy the high every single time without fail. The “cluib” was pissed-off that I would not join and I warned my clients they were back manipulating silver. A pretend analyst on the payroll I believe of PhiBro got a journalist from the Wall Street Journal to try to discredit me. The fake analyst told the WSJ I was short silver and trying to talk it down. The journalist accused me of this nonsense and we argued on the phone. It got quite heated and frankly I was not retail so could care less what they printed. My clients were the real deal who all knew the truth about journalism and how it was just a pawn of the “club”. In fact, my clients did not ever want me to give interviews about market forecasting to the press for their view was hey – we pay for that info. Nevertheless, the WSJ journalist kept arrogantly taunting me and said if silver was being manipulated, then give him the name so I said fine, go ahead, let me see you print it, knowing he never would print Warren Buffet the saint of Wall Street – thanks to the press. The name I gave him was Warren Buffet. He laughed. Told me everyone knew Buffet did not trade commodities I told him that was how much he knew. The Wall Street Journal published the article. The London newspapers were fed stories by the “Club” that I was now the largest silver trader in the world. This became all a joke to me. It demonstrated how bad the press really was. They were the pawns of the manipulators and probably didn’t even know it. The mistake made by the “Club” by turning out the press against me, was they actually created such a worldwide story that silver was being manipulated the CFTC was forced to call me – it was public now and they had no choice. They knew I was not the source of the manipulation. Even the CFTC could look at positions and knew I was not the biggest player in silver. The CFTC then asked me, where was the manipulation taking place? I told them it was in London, out of their jurisdiction. The CFTC told me that they could pick up the phone and investigate London. I told them that they had to make that clear decision. I hung up. Never did I expect that they would really do anything. Yet, they never asked me who because the question was jurisdiction. A few hours later, my phone rang. It was a good source in London who also was helping to monitor the “Club” actions. He told me that the Bank of England had called an immediate meeting of all silver brokers in London in the morning. I was shocked. The CFTC had made the call. But then again, I had given them no names so perhaps in their mind, this was fair game. Within the hour, Warren Buffet made a press announcement. He admitted he had purchased $1 billion worth of silver, in London . He denied he was “manipulating” the market. Claimed the silver was a long – term investment. Everyone was shocked that Buffet was suddenly exposed as a commodity trader after all. The very next day the Wall Street Journal called me. The writer asked – “How did you know?” I told him it was my job to know! Silver thereafter declined and made new lows going into 1999. So much for Buffet’s long-term investment since he sold out. When one trader from New York joined our firm, he called Goldman Sachs to ask about us. He has publicly stated on the record that their response was they had butted heads with me many times but I usually won. Exposing the silver manipulation trying to turn the press against me was a huge mistake. The CFTC would have never called the Bank of England just because I reported the manipulation to our clients. That was private. Exposing the issue in the press forced them to respond. My brokers on the floor were Emerald Trading. I routinely traded AGAINST the manipulators and defeated them many times. Just as the goldbugs do not like me, neither do the manipulators and it far too often seemed to coincide when they were trying to goose the metals markets UP – not down. Contrary to the bullshit, they need people to BUY the metals to create a pool of longs to bury. They are NOT interested in forcing a metal down to compel people to sell for goldbugs are notoriously stubborn. That is not very profitable for they want the emotional traders who buy highs. Of course the goldbugs will say I am wrong but have never been in the same circles and some of them I question if they are not the people paid on the side by the manipulators. There have been major manipulations of markets such as rhodium and then there was the manipulation of Platinum. I had recorded tapes and tons of documents on every manipulation. This was all seized by the court and I stood up instructing the court that these tapes Alan Cohen was demanding involved criminal activity on the part of the banks. I had it all for years. Alan Cohen then was made a board member of Goldman Sachs yet still remained as the court appointed person to run Princeton Economics. That is totally illegal and a conflict of interest. Law does not matter in New York City. (see Transcripts below). To say I will not admit markets are manipulated is absurd. To claim they are always manipulated is impossible. Yet the real paradox is when the metals rally, they never seem to be manipulated – those are always “real” bull markets and the failures are the manipulations. Great propaganda! Amazingly, the metals are unique, They become manipulated only when they decline. Not even the central banks can manipulate everything. Sure people try. But not everything. They target one market and go after that. The central banks have been trying to manage the economy to eliminate recessions. They have never succeeded even once. The central bankers know this is a confidence game just as the market manipulators. You NEED the public to move a trend. They cannot do it alone. If they were all-powerful, then Bretton Woods would never have collapsed. There is a huge difference from a short-term manipulation within the trend, like the Buffet silver move, and a systemic every day manipulation that produces no big windfalls. Where is the PROOF of systemic manipulation? I have never seen any evidence of that – EVER. It is just nonsense. http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/02/26/supreme-court-justice-wva-found-in-questionable-circumstances/ Supreme Court Justice WVa Found in Questionable Circumstances ... ABC News exposed Supreme Court Justice of West Virginia Robin Davis who refused to recuse herself when the lawyer she handed $17 million in fees bought a PRIVATE JET from her husband for $1 million. In my own case, the lawyers were talking how the receiver Alan Cohen was talking with Judge Richard Owen as was his subordinate Tancred Schiavoni on a regular basis off the record. I was in the Chrysler Building at the offices of Tenzer Greenblat when they were all talking about the case saying there was no way to win for this was being rigged as Judge Owen was communicating on the side with the government. When I told the lawyer to move for recusal, he responded his firm in New York City would NEVER move against any judge. From that moment on, I knew this was a hopeless cause to actually expect justice. The press in New York is also afraid to ever report the truth about judges so that leaves the country as a whole up to their throat burried in a pile of shit. It became abundantly clear that lawyers from the same district were hopeless. Their business comes first before any client. So all the pretending of ethics is just that – one giant facade. Nothing is safe in America from your privacy to your liberty no less your property for judges are just not judges with very few exceptions today. When I moved to go pro se with no choice when paid lawyers will not defend you before their own business, things really got out of hand. Getting rid of lawyers who would not defend me, I then moved for recusal of Judge Owen. He illegally closed the court and threw the press out – something which was totally unconstitutional since EVERY citizen is entitled to a OPEN COURT proceeding so that the people know justice is being done – another ethical fraud since they will close a court and change transcripts to remove whatever there is in your favor. Judge Owen ordered the court reporter to not record the events. Typically, every court transcript begins “in open court” except my transcript of April 24th, 2000. Judge Owen had the Associated Press thrown out of court. The journalist reported that it was “In a closed hearing”. That was the only evidence I had to prove what he had done was entirely illegal for no lawyer would back me up against a judge. I appealed his refusal to recuse showing he even illegally altered the transcript to hide the fact he unconstitutionally threw out the press and closed the courtroom. You just can’t make up this stuff. The Second Circuit Court of appeals refused to even dock my appeal. This is the REAL America and we do not stand a prayer in hell of saving our country without profound change and reform. We have become the oppressed by a government that has transformed itself into the very same government we revolted against. The wheel of fortune has completed its revolution. We are now right back where it all began – corrupt judges who protect the kings agents, and writs of assistance to eliminate all rights to privacy. Nothing remains and this is what we are leaving our children. http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/02/21/bernstein-of-watergate-on-cia-control-of-media/ Bernstein of Watergate on CIA Control of Media For the younger generation, in the 1970s, there was the Watergate scandal of the Republicans getting caught in the break-in of Democratic office located in the Watergate Office building. There was always some question about whether Nixon was truly set-up for he was distrustful of the CIA and had actually taken the same posture as JFK against Vietnam. Nixon promised to bring the troops home and it has been long suspected that the assassination of JFK was a coup by US CIA/Military to keep expanding worldwide. It was the Third Nixon-Kennedy Debate of 1960 that set off the first Gold Panic of 1960. However, you have to read between the lines. Kennedy clearly states the fiscal mismanagement problem that eventually undermined Bretton Woods. It was the American military wanting to expand worldwide. Kennedy said: “Now on the question of gold. The difficulty, of course, is that we do have heavy obligations abroad, that we therefore have to maintain not only a favorable balance of trade but also send a good deal of our dollars overseas to pay our troops, maintain our bases, and sustain other economies. In other words, if we’re going to continue to maintain our position in the sixties, we have to maintain a sound monetary and fiscal policy.” Nixon saw the same problem and was forced to close the Gold Window in 1971. He wanted to curtail the military as well and bring the troops home. There is some question about Watergate because Nixon was so far ahead in the polls it really made no sense to break-in to the Democratic office. So was he removed from office for the same problem and the same motive? Carl Bernstein of Woodward and Bernstein who were at the Washington Post broke the story. Why did the government not stop the Washington Post from exposing Watergate when they have the ability to stop the mainstream press in the USA at any moment? Perhaps they wanted the scandal to remove Nixon. This is what Bernstein wrote in 1977 himself about the CIA controlling the press. It is worth the read. Read the following linked blog post, as it is very long and detailed: http://armstrongeconomics.com/research/rule-of-law/goldman-sachs-v-armstrong/

[CoinCube]

If history show us anything...

...its that the participants in statism (aka society run by government) all game the system for maximum short-term individual gain and there is no global (in the time domain, i.e. long-term) optimization feedback mechanism. This what the Petri dish analogy was about in my essay linked from the OP.

States compete and thus evolve.  Ideologies compete and thus evolve.  

Statism attempts to create an artificial global feedback in the form of enforceable property rights, laws, and taxation. Thus statism is simply a form of collectivism on a grand scale and arises naturally from individuals seeking to protect themselves from the terror of unbounded anarchism (murder, theft, warlords, chaos, war).

Statism does not change human nature and human nature dictates that the participants in any collective order will always maximize their individual short-term gains. Without a global feedback mechanism the inevitable result is the progressive deterioration and eventual collapse of the collective back into anarchism.