Economic Devastation

[pinky]

However, I am keeping an eye on his predictions.
1) Economy turning down at the end of 2015 and
2) Pandemic in 2018
3) Any others?

I have been watching his predictions about DOW and gold market bottoms/highs in the past year where he predicted major low in DOW in October a week before, and if I remember correctly he even reasured that the bottom is in on the day even before we formed the first hammer, next day another hammer, then the crazy rally begin to the new highs in the DOW. He also gave warning on recent gold rally to 1300 that this is probably high. You can check and verify this stuff.
As a trader watching this in live market I can assure you M. Armstrong is the real deal - you just can't make this stuff up and be right.

Here are some other predictions from his past posts that you can watch:

- The spread between German 10 year and US 10 Year Treasuries may prove to be the trade of the century later in the year (short Germany Long US). German rates .45% v 1.84%. http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/01/18/understanding-the-bond-bubble/
- We are most likely going to see that Phase Transition in US equities unfold with a 2017 high. Just as the 1987 high took place on the half cycle leading into the peak of the ECM in 1989, this time we are likely to perhaps see the US share market peak on the half cycle after 2015.75. http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/02/15/g20-leaders-plead-with-fed-not-to-raise-rates/
- A month-end closing above 17970 will warn that we can still see an early March high. That may then lead to a retest of support going into June. A low at that time will be very constructive for the longer term looking into 2017. http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/02/17/the-dow-outlook/

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[iamback]

...

From one of your Armstrong links above specifically
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/05/31/understanding-cycles-the-two-extremes-why-we-must-crash-burn/

This fall, we will see more chaos in weather. We are headed into a period of wild weather that will be marked by extreme swings....

Our correlation models indicate that whenever we get a cold spring then we move to a violent storm like hurricanes in the fall. It is like a pendulum. The more you swing to the extreme on one side the more you will move to the extreme in the opposite side. Markets function in the same identical manner.

So how did that prediction turn out?
http://www.climatedepot.com/2013/12/27/2013-shatters-the-record-for-fewest-tornadoes-15-lower-than-previous-record/

Least extreme U.S. weather year ever?’ 2013 shatters the record for fewest U.S. tornadoes — 15% lower than previous record — 2013 also had the fewest U.S. forest fires since 1984

The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season was the first since 1994 with no major hurricanes,and the first since 1968 with no storms of at least Category 2 intensity on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale.

Bottom line is that some Armstrong predictions have been wrong.

Armstrong was correct on that prediction:

<--- see how drought intensifies starting from fall 2013

http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/major-storm-pounds-drought-ridden-west-coast/

Major storm pounds drought-ridden West Coast

December 2, 2014, 6:29 PM|California's biggest rain storm of the year is flooding streets, knocking out power and forcing evacuations. Ben Tracy reports on the damage done and what lies ahead.

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/03/01/ocean-turned-into-giant-slurpee/

Ocean turned into Giant Slurpee Jonathan Nimerfroh’s amazing photograph of what is being called the “Slurpee Wave” was shot at Nantucket and it has gone viral. So much for Global Warming. I doubt any of us has ever seen the ocean turned into a giant slurpee. That tends to reflect what people are saying – this has been the coldest winter in some 30 years.

[iamback]

What the rest of the USA may be going through from 2017 - 2024. This is how it changes. And nobody anticipates it.

...

That is what we are seeing in Europe. There is a 50% tax, then another 30% tax on what is left, then a 25% tax when you spend you money. United States is a few years behind Europe. New Jersey is already putting exit taxes on people who own real estate and who sell and try to get their assets out. Detroit was the first city to go bankrupt under its pension debts. This is when the productive rich start abandoning property and fleeing to freedom as the rule of law collapses.

[CoinCube]

Armstrong was correct on that prediction :
(California drought pic)

I think you are grasping at straws here.

Armstrong was clear in his prediction.

Our correlation models indicate that whenever we get a cold spring then we move to a violent storm like hurricanes in the fall. It is like a pendulum. The more you swing to the extreme on one side the more you will move to the extreme in the opposite side.

He wrote this in March of 2013 when we were experiencing a record cold spring
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/news/cold-spring-2013
http://prairieecologist.com/2013/04/02/why-a-warming-climate-is-making-this-spring-so-cold-and-last-spring-so-warm/

The predicted violent storm like hurricanes, however, failed to materialize.

The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season was the first since 1994 with no major hurricanes, and the first since 1968 with no storms of at least Category 2 intensity on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale.

Least extreme U.S. weather year ever?’ 2013 shatters the record for fewest U.S. tornadoes — 15% lower than previous record — 2013 also had the fewest U.S. forest fires since 1984

To argue that drought in one state somehow makes the above prediction for violent storm like hurricanes true is something of a stretch to say the least.

Blind faith in the predictions of any prognosticators (event talented ones) is a recipe for trouble. No one can predict the future with 100% accuracy.

Armstrong's area of expertise is the financial markets. It stands to reason that his predictions in this area are more likely to be accurate and his predictions in other areas weather, pandemics, Greece leaving the EU are more likely to be wrong.

[iamback]

CoinCube, this is pathetic. At least use Google before you waste my time (see tornados in Fall 2013 below).

The phase "violent storms like hurricanes" is a not a prediction for hurricanes explicitly. It is a prediction for violent storms that are of the scale of violence of hurricanes. It is quite obvious that he could not possibly be referring to Atlantic hurricanes for the Fall, because the hurricane season peaks at the tail end summer.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th

Why did you quote him out-of-context in order to obfuscate his prediction? He wrote, "This fall, we will see more chaos in weather. We are headed into a period of wild weather that will be marked by extreme swings".

You are grasping at straws and it won't help you. You had better be objective, or it is going to cost you dearly.

The shift in the weather has been extremely dramatic and chaotic with the drought in the West leading to violent Fall/winter storms in California (have you not read about the mud slides?) and much warmer and drier weather in the formerly NorthWet (Oregon and WA State). As well the ocean in the East cost was so frigid it turned into an ice slurpee. Btw, here are the tornados in California in the Fall of 2013 exactly as Armstrong predicted (I am sure you agree that a tornado is "violent like a hurricane"):

http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/video/california-bombarded-floods-mudslides-tornado-27576526

California Bombarded by Floods, Mudslides and Tornado

He clearly says "We are headed into a period of wild weather".

If you had read his other blogs you would know he has been talking about an increasing volatility and extreme weather not just for Fall 2013, but going forward through this crisis period to at least 2018 (when we will also likely get a pandemic too). He was never talking specifically about the Atlantic hurricane season. You are trying to quote him out-of-context and emphasize one sentence and even the sentence you are leaning on doesn't mean what you claim it means. I hope you understand the loose analogy meaning of the word "like" in informal vernacular; "like" doesn't mean "that are".

The likely reason for the shifting weather is the North (and South) MAGNETIC pole is accelerating its move away from Siberia and towards North America!

[iamback]

CoinCube, all of us wish Armstrong's predictions were incorrect. I am less prepared than you for collapse in 2016, a pandemic by 2017-18, and war by 2017. I am suffering from a health problem that it makes it very difficult for me to accomplish any planning and action.

But wishing he is wrong won't help us.

For example, you have been trying to say he was wrong about a Greece exit from the EU. Rather Greece's problems began precisely to the day of Pi from the turn in his ECM model, and it looks like Greece will finally exit on 8.6 year point from that turn when the host (the EU) in my OP's Petri dish is dead. Armstrong is wishing his models would be wrong and Greece or any EU country would have the balls to exit and become a safe haven for capital. But he knows that his wishes can't win. He has stated we will just have to crash and burn first.

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/01/19/does-the-model-change-its-mind/

The Greece default began right to the day of Pi. The 2007.15 high picked to the day the peak in the real estate market took place that they called it “Armstrong’s Revenge”.

[CoinCube]

Why did you quote him out-of-context in order to obfuscate his prediction?

I did not quote him out of context but since we disagree on that I will post the entire section in question below.

We are headed into a period of wild weather that will be marked by extreme swings in both directions. The deadliest tornado was the Tri-State Tornado of March 18, 1925 that killed the most and the most destruction was the St. Louis-East St. Louis Tornado of May 27, 1896. The recent outbreak of tornadoes from a cyclical perspective is a bull market. We are building in intensity that many have tried to usurp calling it global warming claiming man has caused this. The data shows before automobiles there were cyclical weather patterns that we have not yet reached – but will insofar as intensity.   Our correlation models indicate that whenever we get a cold spring then we move to a violent storm like hurricanes in the fall. It is like a pendulum. The more you swing to the extreme on one side the more you will move to the extreme in the opposite side. Markets function in the same identical manner.

He wrote this in March of 2013 when we were experiencing a record cold spring
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/news/cold-spring-2013
http://prairieecologist.com/2013/04/02/why-a-warming-climate-is-making-this-spring-so-cold-and-last-spring-so-warm/

It is quite obvious that he could not possibly be referring to Atlantic hurricanes for the Fall, because the hurricane season peaks at the tail end summer.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th

Not quite following you here. Atlantic tropical storm formation like Atlantic hurricanes typically peak at the end of summer but it continues into the fall.


http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/hurricanefacts/when-and-where-do-hurricanes-o/31028

Fall runs from late September to late December which captures the latter part of the Atlantic hurricane season. However, Armstrong did not specify Atlantic hurricane season. The fall is also hurricane season in the Pacific ocean.  

When looking at the 2013 overall we see a very calm year in the Atlantic and a more mixed picture in the pacific and Indian oceans but definitely not a record breaking year.
 

The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season was the first since 1994 with no major hurricanes, and the first since 1968 with no storms of at least Category 2 intensity on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale.
...
First system Formed June 5, 2013, Last System dissipated December 7, 3013

The 2013 Pacific hurricane season was a very active season, although most of the storms remained weak. It officially began on May 15, 2013 in the Eastern Pacific and started on June 1, 2013 in the Central Pacific. Both ended on November 30, 2013.

2013 also had set a historic low for the number of Tornadoes the fewest tornadoes ever 15% lower than the previous record.



My take is that Armstrong simply got this one wrong. You can try to say well maybe he meant fall of some future year or maybe he meant drought instead of "violent storm like hurricanes". But the simple fact of the matter is that Armstrong said his models indicated something and that prediction turned out to be wrong. In my opinion this is incontestable based on his own writing and the subsequent facts. However, as opinions may very I am happy to let the matter rest on its merits.

The weather is very difficult to predict and getting a prediction wrong does not make him wrong about his market predictions (his area of expertise). However, it does indicate that Armstrong's models are not perfect and that it is important to critically evaluate his predictions on their merits rather than "have faith" and blindly follow them.  

[CoinCube]

For example, you have been trying to say he was wrong about a Greece exit from the EU. Rather Greece's problems began precisely to the day of Pi from the turn in his ECM model, and it looks like Greece will finally exit on 8.6 year point from that turn when the host (the EU) in my OP's Petri dish is dead.

We cannot completely pin him down on Greece because he has not given a specific date for his prediction. His exact words were.

Greece will be forced to exit – that is just inevitable

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/02/08/europe-will-move-closer-to-russia-greece-will-exit-euro/

He said this right after the new Greek government started making all its loud noises about refusing to negotiate (yeah right) and everyone was talking about a Greek exit. One could argue that maybe he really meant next year or in 8.6 years. The most we can say is that his prediction has not come to pass as of today.

I have been watching his predictions about DOW and gold market bottoms/highs in the past year where he predicted major low in DOW in October a week before, and if I remember correctly he even reasured that the bottom is in on the day even before we formed the first hammer, next day another hammer, then the crazy rally begin to the new highs in the DOW. He also gave warning on recent gold rally to 1300 that this is probably high. You can check and verify this stuff.
As a trader watching this in live market I can assure you M. Armstrong is the real deal - you just can't make this stuff up and be right.

Things like this are why I do take him seriously especially in the area of financial markets (his area of expertise). If a crisis happens as he predicts in Semptember-October of 2015 (which I believe is very possible) I will attach even more weight to his predictions.  

[CoinCube]

The media is becoming increasingly unreliable. Take this recent interview by Allen Greenspan.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iup05yEKmCI

In the interview Greenspan says a number of interesting things including:

American productivity has gone nowhere in the last few years

the annual rate of increase in entitlements of 9% per year...the people that receive it believe they are getting their money back and have a right to it.

QE lowering the real rate of interest "has been responsible for the rise in P/E multiples... when rates normalize, that will reverse"

We can't argue that we're extremely overvalued in the marketplace

If we get leveraged types of toxic assets, we have a very serious problem, as 2008 and 1929 showed us

So what how does the media report this very negative interview? See for yourself
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102483369

According to CNBC "Greenspan: Stocks not too hot, despite bubble talk"

Bottom line: don't rely on the MSM for anything resembling factual reporting of economic issues.

[iamback]

...Take this recent interview by Allen Greenspan.

QE lowering the real rate of interest "has been responsible for the rise in P/E multiples... when rates normalize, that will reverse"

Armstrong has refuted that with historical examples where stocks rise when interest rates rise in the similar circumstances. Greenspan is not factoring in international capital flows, and the dollar and USA will be the only safe haven still standing in 2016 because Europe will collapse roughly 18 months before the USA will[1], and thus we will get a huge bubble in the US stocks peaking in 2017 some where near 40,000 for the Dow (DJIA).

Greenspan will end up being correct after 2017, when international capital flows into the USA peak and turn. Where do the capital flows go after 2017? Gold, cryptocurrencies, and much of wiped out by sovereign defaults and expropriation. In short, chaos, war, and scorched earth.

[1]

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/03/04/us-v-europe-divergence/ http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/03/06/the-euro-destined-for-80-cents/ http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/03/06/the-euro-a-doomed-currency/ http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/03/06/ecb-insanity-imf-tardiness-tearing-europe-apart-yet-they-r-2-stupid-to-understand-it/

If a crisis happens as he predicts in Semptember-October of 2015 (which I believe is very possible) I will attach even more weight to his predictions.  

Among other notable events for the end of September 2015, are:

1. In one of those audio discussions with WA D.C. insider Hugh Downs, Hugh reminded Armstrong that the funding bill for the US government expires near that 2015.75 turn date.

2. The extension of the funding for Greece expires near that 2015.75 turn date.


What I am expecting based on Armstrong's writings is that October 2015 is when confidence in Europe's sovereign bonds starts to collapse and Draghi's QE no longer is effective in maintaining investor confidence. When investors stop believing that the core of Europe is a safe haven, they will stampede to the dollar. This process is underway on the periphery but the German DAX is still rising (which Armstrong expects to reach a bubble peak and crash on 2015.75) and German bonds are still falling (as well other core European nation sovereign bonds such as the Netherlands). October 2015 is when the lights go out on the core of Europe.

This will cause the Fed in the USA to begin to raise interest rates to counter what it sees as a huge bubble (and the opportunity to unwind the Fed's bloated QE balance sheet). This will cause the influx of the safe haven capital into the dollar to further accelerate. But this will also be killing the USA economy because USA exports will be overpriced and consumers+homeowners will be getting killed on the rising interest rates.

So then the economy will become very bad in the USA in 2016 in spite of the rising dollar and US stocks. Then in 2017, we go F.U.B.A.R. scorched earth.

I place 95% odds on this timing and outcome.

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/09/25/so-what-was-the-ecm-september-2014-turning-point/

So What Was the ECM September 2014 Turning Point?

The 2014.675 turning point in the Economic Confidence Model seems to have pinpoint the shift in capital flows. The US dollar is rising and this may yet move into a serious rally that will have the politicians in turmoil have some even talking about protectionism again since morons never learn a lesson. You have to understand that a rally in the dollar is NECESSARY to turn down the economy for 2016-2020. The US economy is the ONLY thing hold up the entire world economy as it stands right now. Economic growth is becoming extinct in Europe, Russia, China, Japan, the Bricks, you name it. Let the first shot be fired between China and Japan and watch how much dollar buying its in a single day.

[iamback]

For example, you have been trying to say he was wrong about a Greece exit from the EU. Rather Greece's problems began precisely to the day of Pi from the turn in his ECM model, and it looks like Greece will finally exit on 8.6 year point from that turn when the host (the EU) in my OP's Petri dish is dead.

We cannot completely pin him down on Greece because he has not given a specific date for his prediction. His exact words were.

Greece will be forced to exit – that is just inevitable

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/02/08/europe-will-move-closer-to-russia-greece-will-exit-euro/

He said this right after the new Greek government started making all its loud noises about refusing to negotiate (yeah right) and everyone was talking about a Greek exit. One could argue that maybe he really meant next year or in 8.6 years. The most we can say is that his prediction has not come to pass as of today.

Here is yet among a litany of examples where you are not fully objective (informed) about the data and facts because you lack depth of correlation of many things Armstrong has written.

True he has not given an exact date for Greece exit, but he has made it clear that most likely timing was not before 2015.75 at least. He was hoping Greece could exit before 2015.75, but he knows that his cycle models take precedence over his desires and emotions. He even hoped Scotland would exit from the U.K., but his models told it wasn't likely before 2016.

Afair Armstrong did write that he expects Greece to exit afair within 8.6 years from the turn date. What was not clear was what he meant by "turn date". Did he mean 2007.15 or Pi later 2010.29 (as shown on the chart I quoted) or from the 2015.75 turn date? (maybe he is not yet sure himself)

The following from Armstrong makes it clear that he wasn't really seriously expecting Greece to exit recently. He was hoping. He has stated else where that the first country to exit and act as safe haven for the rule of law will quickly bottom and rise. Thus if Greece exited in early 2015, it wouldn't likely still be in depression after 2020 as he wrote below must be the case.

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/12/17/depression-never-ends-at-the-same-time-for-everyone/

QUESTION: Hello Martin.

A few months ago you wrote:
Greek Depression Will Not End until 2020

I have explained the Golden Rule of Corrections. Once you extend in anything beyond a time unit of 3, you are then in a change in trend. The Greek recession, and most of the Western World, began in 2007. We began with the Greek Debt Crisis precisely to the day on the Pi Target from the 2007.15 high in the Economic Confidence Model. That was the 3 year mark and signaled we were beginning a serious major change in long-term trend.That means at the very least, we are looking at the first possible low being 2017 but it is more likely we will extend into a 13 year decline if the pressure is extreme pushing the low into 2020.

… Can you elaborate please when you think the global depression (Europe,USA) began ,where is the mid-cycle,and where is the end? My opinion is that it will correspond with the commodity cycle and the world depression will last till 2032.

Thanks Martin.

E from Belgium

ANSWER: A very important book is being finish right now that is part of my goal to try to get out what I have learned from running around the world with my front row seat as Milton Friedman use to tell me. Each nation entered the Great Depression and exited it at different times and this is tracked in the forthcoming book two people are editing now.

Greece will most likely exit this Depressionary cycle in 2020. I do not think that they government will endure if they were to follow the austerity measures. The risk for Greece is will it be allowed to exit the Euro. Yes, Brussels is actually a strong-arm organization that is unlikely to accept withdrawal lightly. They deliberately intervened to manipulate the Italian elections to prevent their exit from the Euro. They threatened the Greek government that wanted to put the bailout to election that there would be no bailout deal if they allowed the people to vote.

The entire Greek Debt Crisis erupted as we approached the π (Pi) Turning Point  on  the Economic  Confidence Model  2010.29  (April  16th, 2010). Had it NOT been for the free market there would be NO check and balance.

The free market was correct from the outset for pictured here is the Greek Drachma per Euro on a weekly basis for 1999 and 2000. This shows how the Drachma fell from nearly 320 to 340.75 to the Euro in anticipation of future problems.

In the case of Greece, even if we start at 1999, the turning point for a Depression would be 23 to 26 years max. This would bring us to 2022 or 2025. Any way we look at this, Greece should be the FIRST to exit and for that reason it warrants close observation.

It appears that the EU will simply cause the loss of confidence in Europe by shooting itself in the foot instead of requiring Greece actually exit for it to happen:

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/03/06/ecb-insanity-imf-tardiness-tearing-europe-apart-yet-they-r-2-stupid-to-understand-it/

The ECB (European Central Bank) decision to strike Greek bonds off its list of accepted collateral caused European shares and bonds to fall out of bed. The ECB’s move is a blunt attempt to turn-up pressure on Greece’s new anti-austerity government. Greek bank shares plunged over 20 percent and the country’s short-term debt yields surged to almost 20 percent.

The need to pressure Greece to stay in is in effect reversing all the effort Mario Draghi did to buy confidence with his edicts.

The EU will then be forced to bailout Greece at much higher costs due to the very high interest rates on Greek debt (denominated in Euros).

[iamback]

Why did you quote him out-of-context in order to obfuscate his prediction?

I did not quote him out of context but since we disagree on that I will post the entire section in question below.

We are headed into a period of wild weather that will be marked by extreme swings in both directions. The deadliest tornado was the Tri-State Tornado of March 18, 1925 that killed the most and the most destruction was the St. Louis-East St. Louis Tornado of May 27, 1896. The recent outbreak of tornadoes from a cyclical perspective is a bull market. We are building in intensity that many have tried to usurp calling it global warming claiming man has caused this. The data shows before automobiles there were cyclical weather patterns that we have not yet reached – but will insofar as intensity.   Our correlation models indicate that whenever we get a cold spring then we move to a violent storm like hurricanes in the fall. It is like a pendulum. The more you swing to the extreme on one side the more you will move to the extreme in the opposite side. Markets function in the same identical manner.

He mentions tornados and we get exactly tornados exactly in the Fall of 2013 exactly as he predicted. How can you fathom that his prediction did not come true?!?!? You are acting like a politician who can't admit he is wrong and will double-down deeper and deeper on spin to obfuscate the facts.

Why do you continue to focus on "like hurricanes"? Do you not comprehend the English language? The word "like" does not mean "guaranteed to be". It is used for making an analogy to similar but not exactly same example.

... (see tornados in Fall 2013 below).

...Btw, here are the tornados in California in the Fall of 2013 exactly as Armstrong predicted (I am sure you agree that a tornado is "violent like a hurricane"):

http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/video/california-bombarded-floods-mudslides-tornado-27576526

California Bombarded by Floods, Mudslides and Tornado

2013 also had set a historic low for the number of Tornadoes the fewest tornadoes ever 15% lower than the previous record.

Surely you understand that average for the year is not the same as an abnormal increase in the Fall and especially occurrence in a region where they are not common.

You just obfuscated by including in the Midwest where tornadoes are routine into the aberrational data, thus hiding the aberration in an irrelevant statistic.

Come on, you are not this dense. Surely you can comprehend that no where in his prediction was something about the aggregate for the USA as a whole nor for the entire year. Any one who lives in the USA knows the weather is not correlated across the entire nation.

He stated that the volatility in the weather would be in both directions. Thus it is consistent with his prediction that tornado activity in the Midwest could abnormally decline, while violent weather could abnormally rise in another region of the country.

What he is talking about is massive change in the weather. If you had been reading his blog carefully for the past couple of years, you would understand that his blog posts build off prior blog posts. And he has been talking about the weather becoming  much more abnormal. So the Midwest is having less tornadoes, California having more, and the NorthWet is becoming drier and warmer. These are all entirely consistent with what he has been predicting.

Sorry you are really not objective.

If you try to understand Armstrong by cherry picking a sentence without the context, you will never understand.

[OROBTC]

...

Tornadoes and the seasons of their severity, at least me to me, seem to be one of those wildly complicated systems (full of chaotic and unpredictable factors) that cannot be well predicted except on days with their characteristic weather patterns.  Besides, tornadoes cause relatively little damage in the aggregate.

Hurricanes cause more damage.  And seasonality of hurricanes can be somewhat predicted by following the "El Niño" patterns of the warm waters of the Pacific.  A new El Niño seems to be starting up even now.  Soon I will ask my Peruvian in-laws if their country is being affected by the typical flooding seen in the deserts of N. Peru during an El Niño.  Here in the USA, there tend to be fewer hurricanes hitting the US East and Gulf Coasts during an El Niño season.  Costly ANDREW, apparently, was an exception.

Earthquakes?  Much money is being poured into (sometimes VERY costly events), yet their prediction record is not good.  A little better close to a big quake, but still not very good.

*   *   *

When I occasionally consider predicting various outcomes of human (revolutions, wars, fashions) and financial outcomes (wildly complex and confounding & interactive (reflexivity)), I am at a complete loss to make accurate assessments in most cases.  In some cases (very high P/E rations in stocks, other ratios that get extreme, etc.), I can make educated guesses, which are really not worth much.

History can provide some insight, but very fallible (eg, short-term runs in gold price).

Re Black Swans, I go back to N. N. Taleb: Black Swans are (typically) not predictable nor even really foreseeable!  9-11 was not forseeable (except in a general sense of some kind of a Muslim extremist attack).  YES, iamback notes these are long-tail events, but there are so many possible long-tail events that I think these are NOT foreseeable in the aggregate.  Which of the thousands of low-probability events WILL occur?  Hmm......

I do not have the mathematical background (not TOO far away, but not close enough) to assess how much a certain series of financial events that Armstrong's computers could look at and predict, but my strong guess is that while it may very well be much better than my own, well, I don't think a high reliability is there.  If we look at an admittedly bad analogy, his 30,000 factors (and whatever links and correlations he finds between and among them), there are a LOT more than 30,000 possible factors, with unknown connections, that make his predictions very uncertain.  Worth reading, but not worth hold one's breathe on...

A good sense of probability of predicted events looks worth keeping in mind, especially at the RISKS (severities of outcomes) of certain outcomes.

No brain can model the Universe.  Or even the Earth.  Good insights are worthwhile, but caution would suggest looking at a VARIETY of probable outcomes, and preparing for ones where possible.

[iamback]

Tornadoes and the seasons of their severity, at least me to me, seem to be one of those wildly complicated systems (full of chaotic and unpredictable factors) that cannot be well predicted except on days with their characteristic weather patterns.  Besides, tornadoes cause relatively little damage in the aggregate.

Differentiate between predicting when and where a tornado will strike and predicting levels of abnormal tornadoes to increase during a season. As I wrote to you before, what seems chaotic to you, is a long-term cyclical pattern to those who have input all the data and had the computer correlate. Armstrong has done that. And he continues to be accurate on all of his predictions. Those who haven't taken the time to study his record, are going to be the big losers.

Besides, tornadoes cause relatively little damage in the aggregate.

"Violent storms" says nothing about aggregate damage levels. I am amazed at how poor the English comprehension of so many readers. Perhaps it is because my reading comprehension is near to the 100th percentile.

History can provide some insight, but very fallible (eg, short-term runs in gold price).

You continue to force me to repeat what I had written to you earlier. That the short-term predictions are much more noisy. Historical cycles predict the long-term turns very accurately as Armstrong has emphatically and unequivocally proven! (if you haven't studied his record since 1985 or so, then you are ignorant of this proof)

Re Black Swans, I go back to N. N. Taleb: Black Swans are (typically) not predictable nor even really foreseeable!  9-11 was not forseeable (except in a general sense of some kind of a Muslim extremist attack).  YES, iamback notes these are long-tail events, but there are so many possible long-tail events that I think these are NOT foreseeable in the aggregate.  Which of the thousands of low-probability events WILL occur?  Hmm......

Again you make me repeat what I wrote to your before, that what appears to be unpredictable to those who haven't model sufficient historical data to establish the long-term cycles, is not random to those who have collected the necessary data.

If you study Taleb's anti-fragility math (which followed his Black Swan work), it is clear that systems overcommit to error because they lack a holistic perspective.

Taleb is pointing out that they are unseen and that is what makes them Black Swans, but he is saying the reason they are unseen and unpredictable is because the system is structured in such a way that makes it incapable of incrementally adjusting to error. He makes two essential equivalent points (they are duals). One is that bottom-up systems have more degrees-of-freedom and the agents are closer to the error and can adjust more readily (this is the simulated annealing point I have been making over and over again since at least 2010). Secondly, implicit in his math is that if there is a historically repeating pattern then this information would not prevent top-down systems from being unable to adjust to the error that the information makes clear.

I understand you are incapable of understanding.

No brain can model the Universe.  Or even Earth.  Good insights are worthwhile, but caution would suggest looking at a VARIETY of probable outcomes, and preparing for ones where possible.

I ignore pontifications from the ignorant.

Again differentiate between modeling every short-term event and modeling cyclical patterns of aggregate activity.

For example, the cyclical movement of the earth's north and south magnetic poles, which impact aggregate weather patterns.




Point is that fundamental analysis (e.g. climatologists) isn't necessary to recognize repeating patterns which be correlated without any fundamental knowledge. And it turns out that fundamental analysis is often very poor at making predictions, because it fails to account for some factors, e.g. Greenspan not accounting for international capital flows.

[iamback]

Any one doubting for example if Armstrong can predict events outside the financial realm, need only look to his prediction of Ukraine as the focal point, more than a year before it was on anybody's radar.

Go back into his blog archives and verify it yourself.

How many of these examples do we need before you realize Armstrong predicts the future with great accuracy?

How about his prediction that Austria would be the first default in Europe (which recently was proven to be true).

[OROBTC]

...

Tornadoes were discussed above.  They seem to be a minor set of destructive natural events in the aggregate.  IMO, more work could be directed to more destructive events, hopefully with better results.

I believe that "violent storms" (did he DEFINE those?) ought to be subdivided into hurricanes (very costly) vs. tornadoes (an order of magnitude less costly) vs. general thunder storms (many, many of those, which add up to serious $-damage).

*   *   *

Clearly I need to read more and study Armstrong.  He IS a top-notch observer.  I doubt that I will be able to convincingly refute him (as it looks like he ADDS VALUE with his predictions and work in general), and that his predictions would add more value than mine (my record is poor).

I am inclined (just inclined, as I have not put in the hours yet) to take your word that his longer-date predictions are more on the money (than noisy short-term ones), as have George Friedman's, as I once mentioned to you recently here (briefly in a post, not by link).

We appear to have a disagreement on the liklihood of being able to foresee Black Swan events.  Too many, too weird and too unlikely (each one) to be accurately modeled, in most cases, IMO.

*   *   *

Finally, I disagree that a smart brain, or sets of brains and computers, can get much (some, but not too much) from environments that are much, much more complex than our brains (even yours or his) to keep track of all outcomes...  Trends and insights yes.  Brilliant "aha" moments, yes as well.  EVERYTHING, including low probability but high impact events, no.

*   *   *

It might be fun for you (iamback) to put on the line some of M.A.'s latest (current) predictions (or even YOUR predictions if you disagree with him).  Will Hillary win (even with her latest email and foreign donation scandals)?  Where will the S&P 500 be (at any specific date this year, or next year)?  WHAT (yuck) will happen in Ukraine?  Even predicting when (and how) Greece may/may not "GREXIT" this year.

Lay some of you favorite M.A. predictions (or yours!) on this thread!  We will see how they turn out.

(Disclosure: I claim little/none predictive power, especially timing, so I will decline to predict..., having LOST money in predicting financial events before).

[iamback]

We appear to have a disagreement on the liklihood of being able to foresee Black Swan events.  Too many, too weird and too unlikely (each one) to be accurately modeled, in most cases, IMO.

*   *   *

Finally, I disagree that a smart brain, or sets of brains and computers, can get much (some, but not too much) from environments that are much, much more complex than our brains (even yours or his) to keep track of all outcomes...  Trends and insights yes.  Brilliant "aha" moments, yes as well.  EVERYTHING, including low probability but high impact events, no.

There are cyclical patterns that repeat over and over in history. There can't be any disagreement with a fact, rather only denial of the facts.

For example, as I wrote:

For example, the cyclical movement of the earth's north and south magnetic poles, which impact aggregate weather patterns.

That is a fact. You are pretend that facts don't exist if you want.

[iamback]

Lay some of you favorite M.A. predictions (or yours!) on this thread!  We will see how they turn out.

(Disclosure: I claim little/none predictive power, especially timing, so I will decline to predict..., having LOST money in predicting financial events before).

I have told you many already.

For example, Armstrong helped me to sell entirely out of gold and silver in 2012 (instead of buying the crash to $26), and I would be bankrupt already if not for that.

I have already told you gold is going to $1000 or below. And BTC is going lower too. And the US stock market is going to roughly 40,000 by 2017 (might correct first). And the German DAX is going higher then will peak and crash after October 2015.

And "the trade of the century" according to Armstrong will be shorting German bonds and going long USA bonds sometime later this year.

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/01/18/understanding-the-bond-bubble/

We are looking at this phenomenon in Euroland. The spread between German 10 year and US 10 Year Treasuries may prove to be the trade of the century later in the year (short Germany Long US). German rates .45% v 1.84%.

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/05/18/the-british-pound/

QUESTION: I remember your forecast that the pound would fall to par back in 1983. I thought you were mad, whilst something inside me captured my attention. When our beloved pound fell to par, I attended every one of your London seminars after 1985. You have my attention. When you say the dollar can go “above” the 1985 high, just how far “above” is above for us here in the UK? ANSWER: Yes I remember doing a TV interview on FNN back in the early 1980s before it became CNBC. I remember the pound had peaked in 1980 at $2.45. When I said it would fall to par by 1985 the journalist almost choked. I did that interview side-by-side with Walter Bressert. The journalist turned to Walter and asked what do you think of that forecast? Walter said he would not bet against our computer. We took the back page for 3 weeks of the Economist in 1985 to announce the trend was changing again and that the deflation was over. I hate to say this again because I really loved living in London. It was my favorite city in the world. Perhaps the markets will force the political change and Nigel Farage will rise to drag Britain out of the Marxist Era. But as you know, we had a team of staff in London working daily at the Royal British Newspaper Library collecting data on everything that moved. So forgive me, but the pound could fall to the 65 to 70 US cent area at the worse case scenario by 2015. I know that sounds off-the-wall and it is about a 50% fall. But drastic movements are necessary to force drastic political change. That is the technical projection using the database we gathered against the dollar from inception 1791 to date. ... We are working on this special currency report. We have a huge waiting list for this one. I doubt there will be a serious institution that does not order this one. This is most likely going to be the trade of the century – currencies.

Someone thanked me the other day for telling them to sell BTC at $600 (both times) and then buy at the crash to under $300, then sell again in the high $300s (and I predicted it would waterfall crash to $150 which it did). There are readers here who know I advised that in private communications.

How about my public prediction for silver to rise to $46 (from $22) then crash back to $25, with precise timing for Spring 2011 and I made the prediction in October 2010.

[iamback]

Perhaps another reason I can differentiate Armstrong from the zillions of other analyst snake oil salesmen, is that I had considerable experience with these snake oil gold bug analysts (kitco.com, financialsense.com, gold-eagle.com, silverstockreport.com, Jim Willie, Eric Sprott, etc, etc) from 2006 to 2010.

So I can discern the difference between someone who is legit and has an extensive model.

Also because Armstrong is a programmer and polyglot (attributes I claim also, but to a lesser extent of accomplishment) and thus I can align my understanding with his thought processes.

[picolo]

Lay some of you favorite M.A. predictions (or yours!) on this thread!  We will see how they turn out.

(Disclosure: I claim little/none predictive power, especially timing, so I will decline to predict..., having LOST money in predicting financial events before).

I have told you many already.

For example, Armstrong helped me to sell entirely out of gold and silver in 2012 (instead of buying the crash to $26), and I would be bankrupt already if not for that.

I have already told you gold is going to $1000 or below. And BTC is going lower too. And the US stock market is going to roughly 40,000 by 2017 (might correct first). And the German DAX is going higher then will peak and crash after October 2015.

And "the trade of the century" according to Armstrong will be shorting German bonds and going long USA bonds sometime later this year.

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/01/18/understanding-the-bond-bubble/

We are looking at this phenomenon in Euroland. The spread between German 10 year and US 10 Year Treasuries may prove to be the trade of the century later in the year (short Germany Long US). German rates .45% v 1.84%.

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/05/18/the-british-pound/

QUESTION: I remember your forecast that the pound would fall to par back in 1983. I thought you were mad, whilst something inside me captured my attention. When our beloved pound fell to par, I attended every one of your London seminars after 1985. You have my attention. When you say the dollar can go “above” the 1985 high, just how far “above” is above for us here in the UK? ANSWER: Yes I remember doing a TV interview on FNN back in the early 1980s before it became CNBC. I remember the pound had peaked in 1980 at $2.45. When I said it would fall to par by 1985 the journalist almost choked. I did that interview side-by-side with Walter Bressert. The journalist turned to Walter and asked what do you think of that forecast? Walter said he would not bet against our computer. We took the back page for 3 weeks of the Economist in 1985 to announce the trend was changing again and that the deflation was over. I hate to say this again because I really loved living in London. It was my favorite city in the world. Perhaps the markets will force the political change and Nigel Farage will rise to drag Britain out of the Marxist Era. But as you know, we had a team of staff in London working daily at the Royal British Newspaper Library collecting data on everything that moved. So forgive me, but the pound could fall to the 65 to 70 US cent area at the worse case scenario by 2015. I know that sounds off-the-wall and it is about a 50% fall. But drastic movements are necessary to force drastic political change. That is the technical projection using the database we gathered against the dollar from inception 1791 to date. ... We are working on this special currency report. We have a huge waiting list for this one. I doubt there will be a serious institution that does not order this one. This is most likely going to be the trade of the century – currencies.

Someone thanked me the other day for telling them to sell BTC at $600 (both times) and then buy at the crash to under $300, then sell again in the high $300s (and I predicted it would waterfall crash to $150 which it did). There are readers here who know I advised that in private communications.

How about my public prediction for silver to rise to $46 (from $22) then crash back to $25, with precise timing for Spring 2011 and I made the prediction in October 2010.

You have said that and you have been wrong. Most analysts have been wrong on Gold in 2014.