Bearish Bitfinex Sentiment Index almost 1:2

[windjc]

Has anybody seen that.

I haven't seen that seen I started trading in bitfinex?
Not even the day it hit 400 dollars per bitcoin. I actually made a small trade at 388$(buy).
Is it time to dump hard?

Yes, I see this too but it is in direct contrast to the average loan rates, which have  gone to the moon. A month ago they were at an average of 50-70%. Now they are at an average of 250-500% which is extremely bullish.

There are more shorts now, but not nearly as many as leveraged longs.

In bitfinex you can short with dollars and leverage up to 4:1.
So you can take a loan and short.
Am I wrong?

Well, I could be wrong and please someone correct me if I am, but I thought if you borrowed fiat you had to leverage long and to leverage short you had to borrow BTC - own them to sell them first, then buy them back later.

Is this not correct?  Otherwise if you could go long or short with fiat or BTC, then BTC interest rates wouldn't be 1/5 of the fiat loan interest rates.

Which is why it doesn't make sense with $10 million dollars of fiat loans and only 13k BTC on loan, why the sentiment could be so bearish. Those stats seem to suggest the exact opposite.

If you have the bitcoin already, you can take a "short position" and it will not borrow anything unless you sell more than your btc margin.  The indicator being bearish with only 3.6k (I'm not sure where you are getting 13k, but I see 3.6) btc lent out indicates that much of the bearish sentiment is coming from btc holders rather than people who keep their margin in USD and would need to borrow.

I misremembered the 3.6K.  Ok, thanks for that explanation.

Wow there must be a lot of BTC shorts because there are 10 million fiat leveraged longs.

Crazy times.

[Technomage]

Isn't that index just an indication of how many people get burned when they realize it's a bad idea to short bitcoins?

[btcdrak]

How long has it been like that?

It's been bearish for several days. If you view source, you can see the exact percentages.... it's getting more bearish as time goes on.

[RyNinDaCleM]

During the last rally, it was as high as 5:1 Bullish. It has held very bullish for many months and this is the first time in a long time it actually says bearish. It gets as low as 1:1 from time to time, but still says bullish.

It is calculated by the number of open positions in that direction.

No, it is not a contrarian indicator because it's not that uneven yet.

[accord01]

Yeah it is kind of weird that this stat is occurring.  But it does say that total sum of all active loans is:

Total sum of active loans
USD    0.7211%    0.1605%    11,191,123.69 USD

That is quite a lot compared to only 4000 bitcoins loaned out.

BTW- see my signature for the only and best fee rebate program with bitfinex.

[Joe200]

The exact numbers are hidden in the HTML code. As of now, it's

Code:

<div class="progress large-12 success radius">
<span class="meter" style="width: 35.7388316151202749%"></span>
</div>
<div class="progress large-12 red secondary radius">
<span class="meter" style="width:  64.2611683848797251%"></span>
</div>

Or 64.3 : 37.7 = 1.8 bearish... whatever that means.

I do wish they posted historical numbers. Someone could just record the historical numbers as a public service. Anyone?

[TERA]

To open a 'short' or 'long' on the margin trading page, you are required to 'borrow' the corresponding amount of coins or usd from a lender, even if you possess the same amount yourself.  So many people are taking 'loaned' positions even though they're not. I do this myself a lot when trading because I don't want to bother moving funds between my trading and exchange wallets and using two different wallets and two different pages.

Let's say I have 100 bitcoins in my trading wallet. With this, I can simply 'short' 100 bitcoins to sell 100 bitcoins instead of moving the 100 to my exchange wallet and 'selling'. Then, when I am bullish again, I can 'cover' 100 bitcoins instead of buying. Then I can immediately 'long' another 100 bitcoins to go on margin, on the same page, without transferring funds from the exchange wallet to the trading wallet. I can also do both of these at the same time by 'longing' 200 bitcoins. this will both cover the 100 bitcoin short and open a 100 bitcoin long at the same time. Another thing I could have done in the beginning, if I am extra bearish, is go 'short' 200 bitcoins which would negate my 100 bitcoins plus be truly 100 bitcoins short at the same time.  Then when I'm ready, I can 'long' 300 bitcoins. This will cover the short, rebuy my bitcoins, and go long, all in the same trade, without moving around pages.

Now... The consequence of being lazy and using the margin trading page to 'long' when you actually have the funds to 'buy' or 'short' when you actually have the funds 'sell' is quite different. If you're buying btc, you have to pay ~1% interest per day on the USD. On the other hand, if you're selling btc, you have to pay ~0% interest on the BTC. Therefore, people are much more likely to do this with btc. This is what skews the indicator.

[btcdrak]

To open a 'short' or 'long' on the margin trading page, you are required to 'borrow' the corresponding amount of coins or usd from a lender, even if you possess the same amount yourself.  So many people are taking 'loaned' positions even though they're not. I do this myself a lot when trading because I don't want to bother moving funds between my trading and exchange wallets and using two different wallets and two different pages.

Let's say I have 100 bitcoins in my trading wallet. With this, I can simply 'short' 100 bitcoins to sell 100 bitcoins instead of moving the 100 to my exchange wallet and 'selling'. Then, when I am bullish again, I can 'cover' 100 bitcoins instead of buying. Then I can immediately 'long' another 100 bitcoins to go on margin, on the same page, without transferring funds from the exchange wallet to the trading wallet. I can also do both of these at the same time by 'longing' 200 bitcoins. this will both cover the 100 bitcoin short and open a 100 bitcoin long at the same time. Another thing I could have done in the beginning, if I am extra bearish, is go 'short' 200 bitcoins which would negate my 100 bitcoins plus be truly 100 bitcoins short at the same time.  Then when I'm ready, I can 'long' 300 bitcoins. This will cover the short, rebuy my bitcoins, and go long, all in the same trade, without moving around pages.

Now... The consequence of being lazy and using the margin trading page to 'long' when you actually have the funds to 'buy' or 'short' when you actually have the funds 'sell' is quite different. If you're buying btc, you have to pay ~1% interest per day on the USD. On the other hand, if you're selling btc, you have to pay ~0% interest on the BTC. Therefore, people are much more likely to do this with btc. This is what skews the indicator.

You forget to mention the stress of opening such large positions and how you really have to be patient not to lose your shirt!

[TERA]

To open a 'short' or 'long' on the margin trading page, you are required to 'borrow' the corresponding amount of coins or usd from a lender, even if you possess the same amount yourself.  So many people are taking 'loaned' positions even though they're not. I do this myself a lot when trading because I don't want to bother moving funds between my trading and exchange wallets and using two different wallets and two different pages.

Let's say I have 100 bitcoins in my trading wallet. With this, I can simply 'short' 100 bitcoins to sell 100 bitcoins instead of moving the 100 to my exchange wallet and 'selling'. Then, when I am bullish again, I can 'cover' 100 bitcoins instead of buying. Then I can immediately 'long' another 100 bitcoins to go on margin, on the same page, without transferring funds from the exchange wallet to the trading wallet. I can also do both of these at the same time by 'longing' 200 bitcoins. this will both cover the 100 bitcoin short and open a 100 bitcoin long at the same time. Another thing I could have done in the beginning, if I am extra bearish, is go 'short' 200 bitcoins which would negate my 100 bitcoins plus be truly 100 bitcoins short at the same time.  Then when I'm ready, I can 'long' 300 bitcoins. This will cover the short, rebuy my bitcoins, and go long, all in the same trade, without moving around pages.

Now... The consequence of being lazy and using the margin trading page to 'long' when you actually have the funds to 'buy' or 'short' when you actually have the funds 'sell' is quite different. If you're buying btc, you have to pay ~1% interest per day on the USD. On the other hand, if you're selling btc, you have to pay ~0% interest on the BTC. Therefore, people are much more likely to do this with btc. This is what skews the indicator.

You forget to mention the stress of opening such large positions and how you really have to be patient not to lose your shirt!

I am just explaining how short and long are calculated and how the BSI indicator is affected.

[accord01]

To open a 'short' or 'long' on the margin trading page, you are required to 'borrow' the corresponding amount of coins or usd from a lender, even if you possess the same amount yourself.  So many people are taking 'loaned' positions even though they're not. I do this myself a lot when trading because I don't want to bother moving funds between my trading and exchange wallets and using two different wallets and two different pages.

Let's say I have 100 bitcoins in my trading wallet. With this, I can simply 'short' 100 bitcoins to sell 100 bitcoins instead of moving the 100 to my exchange wallet and 'selling'. Then, when I am bullish again, I can 'cover' 100 bitcoins instead of buying. Then I can immediately 'long' another 100 bitcoins to go on margin, on the same page, without transferring funds from the exchange wallet to the trading wallet. I can also do both of these at the same time by 'longing' 200 bitcoins. this will both cover the 100 bitcoin short and open a 100 bitcoin long at the same time. Another thing I could have done in the beginning, if I am extra bearish, is go 'short' 200 bitcoins which would negate my 100 bitcoins plus be truly 100 bitcoins short at the same time.  Then when I'm ready, I can 'long' 300 bitcoins. This will cover the short, rebuy my bitcoins, and go long, all in the same trade, without moving around pages.

Now... The consequence of being lazy and using the margin trading page to 'long' when you actually have the funds to 'buy' or 'short' when you actually have the funds 'sell' is quite different. If you're buying btc, you have to pay ~1% interest per day on the USD. On the other hand, if you're selling btc, you have to pay ~0% interest on the BTC. Therefore, people are much more likely to do this with btc. This is what skews the indicator.

You forget to mention the stress of opening such large positions and how you really have to be patient not to lose your shirt!

I am just explaining how short and long are calculated and how the BSI indicator is affected.

There's like over 10 million loaned out right now.  Are most of these positions going long or just funds sitting there?  Imagine if it is going long and people decided to liquidate, that would be a major sell off there.

[TERA]

To open a 'short' or 'long' on the margin trading page, you are required to 'borrow' the corresponding amount of coins or usd from a lender, even if you possess the same amount yourself.  So many people are taking 'loaned' positions even though they're not. I do this myself a lot when trading because I don't want to bother moving funds between my trading and exchange wallets and using two different wallets and two different pages.

Let's say I have 100 bitcoins in my trading wallet. With this, I can simply 'short' 100 bitcoins to sell 100 bitcoins instead of moving the 100 to my exchange wallet and 'selling'. Then, when I am bullish again, I can 'cover' 100 bitcoins instead of buying. Then I can immediately 'long' another 100 bitcoins to go on margin, on the same page, without transferring funds from the exchange wallet to the trading wallet. I can also do both of these at the same time by 'longing' 200 bitcoins. this will both cover the 100 bitcoin short and open a 100 bitcoin long at the same time. Another thing I could have done in the beginning, if I am extra bearish, is go 'short' 200 bitcoins which would negate my 100 bitcoins plus be truly 100 bitcoins short at the same time.  Then when I'm ready, I can 'long' 300 bitcoins. This will cover the short, rebuy my bitcoins, and go long, all in the same trade, without moving around pages.

Now... The consequence of being lazy and using the margin trading page to 'long' when you actually have the funds to 'buy' or 'short' when you actually have the funds 'sell' is quite different. If you're buying btc, you have to pay ~1% interest per day on the USD. On the other hand, if you're selling btc, you have to pay ~0% interest on the BTC. Therefore, people are much more likely to do this with btc. This is what skews the indicator.

You forget to mention the stress of opening such large positions and how you really have to be patient not to lose your shirt!

I am just explaining how short and long are calculated and how the BSI indicator is affected.

There's like over 10 million loaned out right now.  Are most of these positions going long or just funds sitting there?  Imagine if it is going long and people decided to liquidate, that would be a major sell off there.

Like I said, it's much more likely that the longs are true longs (than the shorts being true shorts), otherwise these people would be paying 1%/day interest for nothing.

[accord01]

ok that make sense, since shorts are lower interest like less than .2%.  you'd also have to believe that about 5% of the total funds are just sitting there unused from ppl not noticing it or waiting on opportune time.

[btcdrak]

ok that make sense, since shorts are lower interest like less than .2%.  you'd also have to believe that about 5% of the total funds are just sitting there unused from ppl not noticing it or waiting on opportune time.

The loan amount includes all the loans available + taken. It's at $11.4MM now by the way. The interest rate is pretty high too. Something is about to going down, you can be sure of it...

[btcdrak]

I made this tampermonkey script to get the real values out of the bitfinex stats page for BSI - makes things a lot clearer.

Code:

// ==UserScript==
// @name       BSI
// @namespace  http://whatever.com/
// @version    0.1.2
// @description  Reveasls real BSI
// @match      https://bitfinex.com/pages/stats
// ==/UserScript==

$(document).ready(function() {
    bull = parseInt($('div.progress.large-12.success.radius .meter').first().css('width'));
    bear = parseInt($('div.progress.large-12.red.secondary.radius .meter').first().css('width'));
    total = bull + bear;
    bull = Math.round(bull/total*10000)/100;
    bear = Math.round(bear/total*10000)/100;
    $('div.progress.large-12.success.radius').prev().append('<div>BSI ratio is <font color="green">'+bull+'</font> : <font color="red">'+bear+'</font></div>');
});

Changes the page like so:

[accord01]

ok that make sense, since shorts are lower interest like less than .2%.  you'd also have to believe that about 5% of the total funds are just sitting there unused from ppl not noticing it or waiting on opportune time.

The loan amount includes all the loans available + taken. It's at $11.4MM now by the way. The interest rate is pretty high too. Something is about to going down, you can be sure of it...

Sure.  It all depends on when these positions were open.  If a decent amount of these positions were open sub 500, then get ready for fireworks soon, because I don't see prices going much higher than what it is now.  I don't see why people would be going long at 600 or higher... especially with the china deadline and trends lately.

[proudhon]

Has anybody seen that.

I haven't seen that seen I started trading in bitfinex?
Not even the day it hit 400 dollars per bitcoin. I actually made a small trade at 388$(buy).
Is it time to dump hard?

In which direction does the market need to move in order to scalp the most people of which this indicator is based on?

I would bet in that direction.

It reminds me of starfish. *

Ahhhhh, the starfish.  Please let this be another starfish.

[yogi]

Has anybody seen that.

I haven't seen that seen I started trading in bitfinex?
Not even the day it hit 400 dollars per bitcoin. I actually made a small trade at 388$(buy).
Is it time to dump hard?

In which direction does the market need to move in order to scalp the most people of which this indicator is based on?

I would bet in that direction.

It reminds me of starfish. *

Ahhhhh, the starfish.  Please let this be another starfish.

The Bitfinex lending system doesn't work in the same way as Bitcoinica's did, so no more starfish I'm afraid. Now, snowballs on the other hand, are still possible, so we could see a sudden spike upwards.

[Joe200]

I made this tampermonkey script to get the real values out of the bitfinex stats page for BSI - makes things a lot clearer.

Cool. Thanks.

[accord01]

Has anybody seen that.

I haven't seen that seen I started trading in bitfinex?
Not even the day it hit 400 dollars per bitcoin. I actually made a small trade at 388$(buy).
Is it time to dump hard?

In which direction does the market need to move in order to scalp the most people of which this indicator is based on?

I would bet in that direction.

It reminds me of starfish. *

Ahhhhh, the starfish.  Please let this be another starfish.

I'm glad someone in this thread remembers the starfish!

What is this starfish and snowball youll talkin bout?

[yogi]

What is this starfish and snowball youll talkin bout?

The starfish was an indicator to show that the platform had run out of funds to lend.

A snowball is a situation where a forced liquidation of one position causes more positions to be liquidated in a snowball effect.