segeln
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January 08, 2014, 11:04:30 AM |
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It is going up again:
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"This isn't the kind of software where we can leave so many unresolved bugs that we need a tracker for them." -- Satoshi
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oda.krell
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January 08, 2014, 11:04:53 AM |
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I didn't say I'm not bearish Just that I still disagree with your analysis. You continue looking at a time frame of the latest uptrend (the one that started at around Christmas), and then show (correctly, as I would say) that this trend broke. But then your conclusion is actually much larger than that: you say your outlook "for a few weeks" is bearish. I don't know how you would come to that conclusion, unless you add a large dose of EW axioms (which I am extremely skeptical about).
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dnaleor (OP)
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January 08, 2014, 04:30:32 PM |
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At bitstamp, the trend is definitely broken. Check this 4h chart But gox is still struggeling. We will enter a bearish fase for a couple of weeks if that happens.
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segeln
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January 08, 2014, 04:43:14 PM |
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not yet
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MatTheCat
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January 08, 2014, 05:17:17 PM |
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not yet God. U would redraw that line everytime. We are 20% from the high of 48 hours ago. Seems like a bit of a downtrend to me, or is 20% underwater in 2 days simply 'consolidating'?
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oda.krell
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January 08, 2014, 05:20:31 PM |
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dnaleor, come on man, work with me here I already agreed: the previous "Christmas trend" is broken. What I don't agree with is your pulled-out-of-nowhere claim that we'll enter a bear market for several weeks as a result. That part requires a bit more evidence, no?
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bambou
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January 08, 2014, 05:31:45 PM |
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dnaleor, come on man, work with me here I already agreed: the previous "Christmas trend" is broken. What I don't agree with is your pulled-out-of-nowhere claim that we'll enter a bear market for several weeks as a result. That part requires a bit more evidence, no? nothing very TA there, but i would assume that increasing impatience would be some kind of an indicator. I mean, reaching 1200$ in only 1 month and trying to consolidate the month after must have led to some more speculators being impatient for the next wave. Hence they would be more sensible to downward variation in price as the euphoria from last rally is calming down: bear market here we go. one thing interesting would be to measure the speculation forum's traffic to figure when people are getting impatient/agitated?!
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Non inultus premor
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T.Stuart
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January 08, 2014, 05:32:43 PM |
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dnaleor, come on man, work with me here I already agreed: the previous "Christmas trend" is broken. What I don't agree with is your pulled-out-of-nowhere claim that we'll enter a bear market for several weeks as a result. That part requires a bit more evidence, no? +1 Be brave man!! No reason to fear a two week bear market with all this bouyant weightlessness!
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dnaleor (OP)
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January 08, 2014, 05:50:16 PM |
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dnaleor, come on man, work with me here I already agreed: the previous "Christmas trend" is broken. What I don't agree with is your pulled-out-of-nowhere claim that we'll enter a bear market for several weeks as a result. That part requires a bit more evidence, no? just a "gut feeling", no TA: I just think we went towards 1000 usd too fast (even for bitcoin). There was only 5 days with BTC price above 1000 USD in the "china bubble" (excluding gox here, because who wants to cash out there anyway?). That is not enough time for triggering people cashing out. As a result, we saw the crash. Some people regret that they were too greedy and did not cash out above 1000 USD. So when 1000 USD is approached again, people tend to sell. We need slow growth to have less volatility. I was certain the recent uptrend would trigger some volatility so decided to watch the market closely when we approched 900+ USD. I am a longterm bull and do not want to cash out. I believe in a world with BTC as main currency. But sometimes, it is not bad to keep some distance from your investment and "feel the market". I only trade the "large trends" and this was an opportunity I took. PS: I never sell during a rally with new ATHs, because it is very unpredictable how high the top will be. PPS: When I sell, I want to buy more BTC. I do not want to have my profit in dirty fiat.
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segeln
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January 08, 2014, 05:59:27 PM |
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U would redraw that line everytime.
yes i will but it is in the utmost case a beginning sideward moving since there are no bad News resulting and forcing in an downtrend
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Wilhelm
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January 08, 2014, 06:00:16 PM |
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Hopefully this is the last spanner in the works from China.
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Bitcoin is like a box of chocolates. You never know what you're gonna get !!
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damiano
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103 days, 21 hours and 10 minutes.
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January 08, 2014, 06:06:50 PM |
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Hopefully this is the last spanner in the works from China. At this point we have heard the worst China has to say. There will be more positives coming on a weekly basis throughout the world.
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T.Stuart
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January 08, 2014, 06:10:46 PM |
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Hopefully this is the last spanner in the works from China. At this point we have heard the worst China has to say. There will be more positives coming on a weekly basis throughout the world. +1 - there is a lot coming now and to come and this is why the price is so bouyant - market sentiment is actually good!
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arepo
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this statement is false
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January 08, 2014, 06:17:54 PM |
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U would redraw that line everytime.
yes i will but it is in the utmost case a beginning sideward moving since there are no bad News resulting and forcing in an downtrend i'm getting reaaaaaaaally tired of saying this but bad news doesn't 'force in a downtrend'. that's simply not how price behavior works. also, @ roeland, trading on "gut feeling" is a terrible idea that will yield results worse than chance. you will end up lagging sentiment instead of leading it and will be pick-pocketed by every better trader.
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this sentence has fifteen words, seventy-four letters, four commas, one hyphen, and a period. 18N9md2G1oA89kdBuiyJFrtJShuL5iDWDz
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dnaleor (OP)
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January 08, 2014, 06:22:04 PM |
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U would redraw that line everytime.
yes i will but it is in the utmost case a beginning sideward moving since there are no bad News resulting and forcing in an downtrend (...) After the april bubble and crash and rebounce uptrend, there was no bad news either. We just slided down from 180 USD to 65 USD in a couple of months. I do not think such a large downtrend will happen due to the fact that we have more media exposure and users, but a small one, yes, that is a real possibility...
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segeln
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January 08, 2014, 06:23:33 PM |
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i'm getting reaaaaaaaally tired of saying this but bad news doesn't 'force in a downtrend'. that's simply not how price behavior works.
so you think News like FBI will sell BTC of the SR Raid or USA will shutdown BTC Exchanges won`t affect Prices? Not really,or?
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arepo
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this statement is false
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January 08, 2014, 06:24:22 PM |
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i'm getting reaaaaaaaally tired of saying this but bad news doesn't 'force in a downtrend'. that's simply not how price behavior works.
so you think News like FBI will sell BTC of the SR Raid or USA will shutdown BTC Exchanges won`t affect Prices? Not really,or? i never said it doesn't affect prices. i said it doesn't "force in a downtrend".
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this sentence has fifteen words, seventy-four letters, four commas, one hyphen, and a period. 18N9md2G1oA89kdBuiyJFrtJShuL5iDWDz
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Wilhelm
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January 08, 2014, 06:27:13 PM |
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Hopefully this is the last spanner in the works from China. At this point we have heard the worst China has to say. There will be more positives coming on a weekly basis throughout the world. +1 - there is a lot coming now and to come and this is why the price is so bouyant - market sentiment is actually good! I truely believe in bitcoin and much good stuff is coming. Hope that no other countries adopt the Chinese way of enforcing bitcoin. Bitcoin is resilient enough to survive and keep on going as long as the internet is not censured. Bitcoin keeps recovering from these "glitches" which proves that bitcoin is really good. Well I'm in for atleast 3 years of Hodling and gathering more. Either I make it big or I lose trying
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Bitcoin is like a box of chocolates. You never know what you're gonna get !!
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segeln
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January 08, 2014, 06:28:16 PM |
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i never said it doesn't affect prices. i said it doesn't "force in a downtrend".
That`s rabulistic or hair-splitting
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nastybit
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January 08, 2014, 06:31:58 PM |
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i'm getting reaaaaaaaally tired of saying this but bad news doesn't 'force in a downtrend'. that's simply not how price behavior works.
so you think News like FBI will sell BTC of the SR Raid or USA will shutdown BTC Exchanges won`t affect Prices? Not really,or? i never said it doesn't affect prices. i said it doesn't "force in a downtrend". first option: it does, because the market cannot absorb it, the rest will panic sell second option: it does, my estimate is beyond $1...
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