Downtrend started?

[segeln]

At this point we have heard the worst China has to say.  There will be more positives coming on a weekly basis throughout the world.

I completely agree

[damiano]

Additionally I would just call this a correction and not a "Downtrend".  Were already off the lows and the exchanges look healthier than they did 24 hours ago.

[arepo]

i never said it doesn't affect prices. i said it doesn't "force in a downtrend".

That`s rabulistic or hair-splitting

it's actually a very important distinction.

what the bad news may have done was turn a natural market correction into a bit of panic-selling, that's all, but there's not even any way of knowing! there's no way to quantify the news' effect on price, and that causes a lot of problems in trying to anticipate it in any real way. the price doesn't respond to news in the binary way you imagined when you used the phrase "force in a downtrend" and that's exactly the point i was trying to make.

--arepo

[T.Stuart]

it's actually a very important distinction.

what the bad news may have done was turn a natural market correction into a bit of panic-selling, that's all, but there's not even any way of knowing! there's no way to quantify the news' effect on price, and that causes a lot of problems in trying to anticipate it in any real way. the price doesn't respond to news in the binary way you imagined when you used the phrase "force in a downtrend" and that's exactly the point i was trying to make.

--arepo

In any case, and perhaps off the point, but the panic element of the selling has been quite subdued from what I can see. Obviously a good thing (unless you're a trader who loves trading on panic!).

[Tzupy]

I don't understand why people believe that the bear market will only last 'a few weeks'.
In April 2013 wave B took 8-9 days, now it took 19-20 days, at least 2x longer.
And wave C went from the 24th April to the 6th July, about 2.5 months.
In 2011 wave C took about 4-5 months, and so far the market resembles the 2011 patterns.
So IMO this bear market, which may have some nice rebounds, should take about 4-5 months.

[KARHU]

I don't understand why people believe that the bear market will only last 'a few weeks'.
In April 2013 wave B took 8-9 days, now it took 19-20 days, at least 2x longer.
And wave C went from the 24th April to the 6th July, about 2.5 months.
In 2011 wave C took about 4-5 months, and so far the market resembles the 2011 patterns.
So IMO this bear market, which may have some nice rebounds, should take about 4-5 months.

KARHU respects your wisdom, you will prosper for the duration of Karhunpeijaiset. It is regrettable that fools do not heed your warnings.

[segeln]

it's actually a very important distinction.
arepo

arepo, no offence meant, but for me it is still hair-splitting

[MatTheCat]

yes i will but it is in the utmost case a  beginning sideward moving since there are no bad News resulting and forcing in an downtrend

also, @ roeland, trading on "gut feeling" is a terrible idea that will yield results worse than chance. you will end up lagging sentiment instead of leading it and will be pick-pocketed by every better trader.

Fucking well said!

Show me a link to your pay TA report.

Hopefully this is the last spanner in the works from China. 

China?

From what I seen Bitstamp lead the drop down by a country mile.

Unless of course Chinese coin has started making its way over to Bitstamp to cash out into foreign currencies.....now there is a thought for the bulltards!?

[MAbtc]

I don't understand why people believe that the bear market will only last 'a few weeks'.
In April 2013 wave B took 8-9 days, now it took 19-20 days, at least 2x longer.
And wave C went from the 24th April to the 6th July, about 2.5 months.
In 2011 wave C took about 4-5 months, and so far the market resembles the 2011 patterns.
So IMO this bear market, which may have some nice rebounds, should take about 4-5 months.

Tzupy, what's your ~ target for bottom of Wave C at this time?

[arepo]

it's actually a very important distinction.
arepo

arepo, no offence meant, but for me it is still hair-splitting

then you're not understanding. there is not even an empirical way to show that bad news causes price to fall, or good news the opposite. the claim that news affects price in this way is indefensible. it's obvious that news affects price in some way, but it is unclear how.

basically, you're positing that you know how news affects price. we both can agree that news does affect price. this is a very, very important distinction.

[TERA]

What it is this new attitude that btc is like a stock and only responds to news events? In the past years, btc would move plenty on its own and we didnt need news - we just used TA. Sometimes businesses and users just have a bunch of coins they need to unload to retrieve fiat or pay invoices. It is a transactional currency that is used for business and not just speculation, and even many of the speculators are following TA or their own needs and whims - not news.

[segeln]

we both can agree that news does affect price.

now I agree

[MatTheCat]

then you're not understanding. there is not even an empirical way to show that bad news causes price to fall, or good news the opposite. the claim that news affects price in this way is indefensible. it's obvious that news affects price in some way, but it is unclear how.

basically, you're positing that you know how news affects price. we both can agree that news does affect price. this is a very, very important distinction.

with the odd notable exceptions, it seems to me that the price moves in a direction, and people scramble to find the news that fits the price movement.

Two days ago: Bitcoin goes over $1000 on Zynga news (Bullshit, it was the spike of an uptrend that spanned 9 days)

Yesterday: Bitcoin plummets on China ASIC Mining Station Ban (Bullshit, it was an 9 day uptrend spike reversing)

I guess it makes people feel that they understand wtf is going on without having to get out their calculators and work with complicated equations. People like thinking they understand wtf is going on, it makes them feel as though they are in control, even though they are not.

We have a peculiar phenomena with Bitcoin in that Bitcoin's price action over the past 2 years has proven to complete idiots, that their complete idiocy was 100% right!

Hence the pervasiveness of the 'Bitcoin Nutter'.

[notme]

What it is this new attitude that btc is like a stock and only responds to news events? In the past years, btc would move plenty on its own and we didnt need news - we just used TA. Sometimes businesses and users just have a bunch of coins they need to unload to retrieve fiat or pay invoices. It is a transactional currency that is used for business and not just speculation, and even many of the speculators are following TA or their own needs and whims - not news.

It is the flock that is looking for fiat profits.  These people don't truly understand the potential of bitcoin and are easily swayed by arguments based primarily on emotion (aka, news).  Once this round is fully fleeced, we can move on to our next round of growth.

[Tzupy]

Tzupy, what's your ~ target for bottom of Wave C at this time?

Between 80$ (harsh scenario, 2011 like) and 300$ (mild scenario, 2013 like), Gox prices.

[notme]

Tzupy, what's your ~ target for bottom of Wave C at this time?

Between 80$ (harsh scenario, 2011 like) and 300$ (mild scenario, 2013 like), Gox prices.

Good luck.

[reb0rn21]

Tzupy, what's your ~ target for bottom of Wave C at this time?

Between 80$ (harsh scenario, 2011 like) and 300$ (mild scenario, 2013 like), Gox prices.

Sorry to say but you are not sane LOL

[proudhon]

I don't understand why people believe that the bear market will only last 'a few weeks'.
In April 2013 wave B took 8-9 days, now it took 19-20 days, at least 2x longer.
And wave C went from the 24th April to the 6th July, about 2.5 months.
In 2011 wave C took about 4-5 months, and so far the market resembles the 2011 patterns.
So IMO this bear market, which may have some nice rebounds, should take about 4-5 months.

But have you checked the most recent non-English bad news sources?  The downtrend will likely be indefinite and ultimately culminate in the complete failure of the market.  Especially since bitcoin usefulness and saturation has been maxed out.  There's really just no more upside potential here.

[humanitee]

I don't understand why people believe that the bear market will only last 'a few weeks'.
In April 2013 wave B took 8-9 days, now it took 19-20 days, at least 2x longer.
And wave C went from the 24th April to the 6th July, about 2.5 months.
In 2011 wave C took about 4-5 months, and so far the market resembles the 2011 patterns.
So IMO this bear market, which may have some nice rebounds, should take about 4-5 months.

But have you checked the most recent non-English bad news sources?  The downtrend will likely be indefinite and ultimately culminate in the complete failure of the market.  Especially since bitcoin usefulness and saturation has been maxed out.  There's really just no more upside potential here.

Additionally, bitcoin is not a sustainable technology. Following basic logic we can see that since it is not a sustainable technology, the price can not be sustained. "Where do we go from here" you ask? Grasscoin. Grasscoin is the future of home-grown cryptos.

Grasscoin, where the surface meets the sky. ™

Grasscoin poised to have a breakout year!

[proudhon]

I don't understand why people believe that the bear market will only last 'a few weeks'.
In April 2013 wave B took 8-9 days, now it took 19-20 days, at least 2x longer.
And wave C went from the 24th April to the 6th July, about 2.5 months.
In 2011 wave C took about 4-5 months, and so far the market resembles the 2011 patterns.
So IMO this bear market, which may have some nice rebounds, should take about 4-5 months.

But have you checked the most recent non-English bad news sources?  The downtrend will likely be indefinite and ultimately culminate in the complete failure of the market.  Especially since bitcoin usefulness and saturation has been maxed out.  There's really just no more upside potential here.

Additionally, bitcoin is not a sustainable technology. Following basic logic we can see that since it is not a sustainable technology, the price can not be sustained. "Where do we go from here" you ask? Grasscoin. Grasscoin is the future of home-grown cryptos.

Grasscoin, where the surface meets the sky. ™

Grasscoin poised to have a breakout year!

humanitee, do you know how to code?  I do not, and regardless whether you do, we should create a proper crytocurrency that fixes all the problems with bitcoin.