MTGOX <-> BTC BID/ASK

[palm12341]

Buying 1.0 GOXBTC for BTC0.01
Will send today to reputable member and trust them to pay me if/when site returns  

[surfer43]

Buying 1.0 GOXBTC for BTC0.01
Will send today to reputable member and trust them to pay me if/when site returns  

no offense... the odds are much better than that

[Tegija]

Buying 1.0 GOXBTC for BTC0.01
Will send today to reputable member and trust them to pay me if/when site returns  

no offense... the odds are much better than that

i do not know why you are thinking so or from where your informations are coming...

i tried to analyze all informations to find out how high the odds are and came to conclusion that its not much higher than 2-3%.
You are right, its much better than 1goxBTC-->0.01BTC, but that what is going on in bitcoinbuilder is for sure loss-business for buyer.

[Mota]

Buying 1.0 GOXBTC for BTC0.01
Will send today to reputable member and trust them to pay me if/when site returns  

no offense... the odds are much better than that

i do not know why you are thinking so or from where your informations are coming...

i tried to analyze all informations to find out how high the odds are and came to conclusion that its not much higher than 2-3%.
You are right, its much better than 1goxBTC-->0.01BTC, but that what is going on in bitcoinbuilder is for sure loss-business for buyer.

pray tell, how exactly do you measure odds for something you don't have all the facts? 

[Tegija]

Buying 1.0 GOXBTC for BTC0.01
Will send today to reputable member and trust them to pay me if/when site returns  

no offense... the odds are much better than that

i do not know why you are thinking so or from where your informations are coming...

i tried to analyze all informations to find out how high the odds are and came to conclusion that its not much higher than 2-3%.
You are right, its much better than 1goxBTC-->0.01BTC, but that what is going on in bitcoinbuilder is for sure loss-business for buyer.

pray tell, how exactly do you measure odds for something you don't have all the facts? 

speculating does not need facts, mostly rumors are enough. odds are anyway everybody's personal issue and for sure i´m not able to calculate your odds. so as always most important is to have:
possibly many facts (practically no real facts in case of gox);
hear/collect all rumors (lots of them out there);
have a bunch of intuition (very personal sensible skill);
Sort all this with bit of analysis skills (without that better don´t speculate);
set your own high/low limits (thats how you can measure your odds);

playing poker, you do not know your opposites cards (facts) neither, but if you are skipping calculating odds (winning chances) then better do not play poker...

if we would have ALL facts, we would not need to calculate odds. 

[Mota]

Buying 1.0 GOXBTC for BTC0.01
Will send today to reputable member and trust them to pay me if/when site returns  

no offense... the odds are much better than that

i do not know why you are thinking so or from where your informations are coming...

i tried to analyze all informations to find out how high the odds are and came to conclusion that its not much higher than 2-3%.
You are right, its much better than 1goxBTC-->0.01BTC, but that what is going on in bitcoinbuilder is for sure loss-business for buyer.

pray tell, how exactly do you measure odds for something you don't have all the facts? 

speculating does not need facts, mostly rumors are enough. odds are anyway everybody's personal issue and for sure i´m not able to calculate your odds. so as always most important is to have:
possibly many facts (practically no real facts in case of gox);
hear/collect all rumors (lots of them out there);
have a bunch of intuition (very personal sensible skill);
Sort all this with bit of analysis skills (without that better don´t speculate);
set your own high/low limits (thats how you can measure your odds);

playing poker, you do not know your opposites cards (facts) neither, but if you are skipping calculating odds (winning chances) then better do not play poker...

if we would have ALL facts, we would not need to calculate odds. 

you can't calculate odds without a certain factor to hold on to. In poker you have a limited choice of cards (52), your own cards and later on the community card board. So in fact you calculate your odds against facts, namely the highest possible combination for you against the highest possible combination for your opponents. If you have a chance of 50% to win and you can win 2 times your stack you will play that hand.

What is your limited choice here? Gox dead to gox alive. Those odds would be 50%  without more info.
Given the fact that we KNOW the cold wallets are still full and untouched, but we don't know if they can access them in the near future (again, 50%):
Chance for them to be alive and able to pay out: ? There are wayyy too many inputs there. you can't possibly even try to measure the odds.

[Tegija]

you can't calculate odds without a certain factor to hold on to. In poker you have a limited choice of cards (52), your own cards and later on the community card board. So in fact you calculate your odds against facts, namely the highest possible combination for you against the highest possible combination for your opponents. If you have a chance of 50% to win and you can win 2 times your stack you will play that hand.

What is your limited choice here? Gox dead to gox alive. Those odds would be 50%  without more info.
Given the fact that we KNOW the cold wallets are still full and untouched, but we don't know if they can access them in the near future (again, 50%):
Chance for them to be alive and able to pay out: ? There are wayyy too many inputs there. you can't possibly even try to measure the odds.

only about your "limited choce here":

1. gox dead or alive: 50%; cumulative odds 50% (right this is truth)
2. you KNOW that cold wallets are untouched? i don´t think so... it is for sure not a fact, so: 50% here also; cumulative odds 25%
3. if this cold wallets are still full can they be accessed in near future: 50% (Truth); cumulative odds 12,5%
4. fact is that their software itself is so fucked up that nobody really knows are they even able to organize everything again: 50%; cumulative odds 6,25%
5. do we really know anything about facts? chance 1:4 (i just make it up myself, so only my opinion, so: max 25%; cumulative odds ca 1,56%

all single chances can vary but in the end i think there will be only those odds what everybody makes up for himself. it is nice to write about "facts" which are actually not a facts... so only speculations.

there are only two (three) facts:
1. gox was not able to make correct payouts already 2012.
2. gox closed their doors without giving us any informations.
(3. Karpeles ist just a asshole.)

everything else is just speculation. i am (personally) sure that considering those facts our chances to hear/get any other facts will be max 3%.

PS: you are a really conservative poker player.

[scutzi128]

People are still trading for goxcoins despite the fact gox filed for bankruptcy protection this morning?

[Mota]

People are still trading for goxcoins despite the fact gox filed for bankruptcy protection this morning?

Because it means they won't be liquidated in the near future (there's hope. a little )

[Ente]

People are still trading for goxcoins despite the fact gox filed for bankruptcy protection this morning?

It's all about odds, huh?
Hell, I might even buy some GoxCoins for 1% face value! If it technically was still possible.
As there might or might not be a more than 1% chance to see any funds again. Or a 2% chance to get back half of the funds.
Noone knows the details, it's all a gamble.

I just was about to add that it's all a gamble unless you have more information than the others.
Isn't it curious Roger Ver wanted to buy GoxCoins in this very thread?
And that Charlie Shrem youtube speech..

Man, I can't wait to learn the full story on this one.

Ente

[samsonn25]

People are still trading for goxcoins despite the fact gox filed for bankruptcy protection this morning?

Because it means they won't be liquidated in the near future (there's hope. a little )

There are 3 types of bankrupcy.  One is total wipe out, one is partial wipe out, other is semi wipe-out.

[Mota]

People are still trading for goxcoins despite the fact gox filed for bankruptcy protection this morning?

Because it means they won't be liquidated in the near future (there's hope. a little )

There are 3 types of bankrupcy.  One is total wipe out, one is partial wipe out, other is semi wipe-out.

Actually no. There is liquidation, Debtcancelling and carrying on , and converting debt to ownership.

[Lohoris]

People are still trading for goxcoins despite the fact gox filed for bankruptcy protection this morning?

Because it means they won't be liquidated in the near future (there's hope. a little )

There are 3 types of bankrupcy.  One is total wipe out, one is partial wipe out, other is semi wipe-out.

Yeah, sure, there's also Wipe-out 2097 and F-Zero fusion.

[TheFootMan]

Isn't it curious Roger Ver wanted to buy GoxCoins in this very thread?

Either he is just naive and stupid (highly unlikely considering all his business activity) and he bought BTC, and now have it stuck in gox-neverland, OR he deliberately posted it, because he knows he's high profile and people will listen to him, so 'voting' for MtGox made others believe, and thus injecting more money into the failing black hole aka MtGox and at the same time he's withdrawn all his own funds already.

He is apparently a close friend of Mark and received a text-message on tuesday this week telling him about what was about to transpire today. It is possible that Mark has hidden the shitty situation from even him up until now, but I still have a problem depicting Roger Ver as stupid, although he might be very greedy (he also lost money in Bitcoinica afaik - to get the interest for a large amount of btc), funnily enough, these very bitcoins were stored with MtGox, and later held hostage by MtGox indefinately 'pending investigations'.

It strikes me as odd if Mark and Roger weren't able to figure this out privately avoiding the lenghty waiting time for any court decisions. Many would have done their best to recover those coins using that friendship for that purpose.

This is just speculations, but there are a lot of things going on, that the public does not get to know - even if that too is speculation - that's almost a 100% certainty.

[boomertoo]

How do Japans bankruptcy laws differ from usa ?
 

[theta]

It's not about odds, as the bankruptcy is certain. It's about recovery rate. We know they have about $20m in assets and about $500m in liabilities. This should result in a recovery rate of about 4%. It will probably be less than that because of all the costs associated with the liquidation/administration procedure.

The big unknown variable is that the majority of the liabilities is in the form of BTC, which I'm not sure how they will be accounted for.

[cudido]

WTS 43 goxcoins

[Lohoris]

WTS 43 goxcoins

I bid 0.00025 BTC

[chrisLG]

WTS 43 goxcoins

.0043 BTC

[cudido]

WTS 43 goxcoins

I'm premium member in mtgox, i sell my account with 43 goxcoins at 7% of value = 3 BTC .