Transferring 25k into Gox to buy at current prices

[sgbett]

I would rather open an account with either AvaTrade or Plus500 and go long on the GoxBTC/GoxUSD currency pair. There is a good chance that this trade can be profitable, and one can then get the USD out and trade then for BTC at market through an exchange that is working.

First of all, kudos to you for understanding counterparty risk.

However, I don't think this will work.  I checked out both AvaTrade and Plus500 and they close all bitcoin positions monthly, on the same day of the month for all accounts, which almost certainly means that they are putting in a wire transfer request to gox once a month.  If that wire doesn't come back and not enough customers show up in the first week-or-so of next month to offset, they will proceed to screw the previous month's customers for the balance, appealing to force majeure.  I'm pretty sure their risk management strategy here is to pipeline the whole thing and then drag their feet on withdrawals if the pipeline dries up while gox is in no-wire-transfer mode.

It's the Lloyd's reinsurance-to-close scam, writ small.

So, in short, you are saying wire it all directly to gox

[1714049976]

1714049976

[MrVivaldi]

I believe that the Bitcoin market has already answered that question. The market seems to feel as if this is very risky, thus you see a 50% cut in the price of GoxBTC as opposed to BTC.
If MtGox had access to the coins they could just transfer them to other exchanges sell off and buy on their own and make crazy arbitrage.

Manual Bitcoin withdrawals should be available for larger orders. There is definitely something fishy about MtGox.

[eldentyrell]

It's the Lloyd's reinsurance-to-close scam, writ small.

So, in short, you are saying wire it all directly to gox

No, I'm saying that if gox folds you will get screwed either way.

Essentially you're betting the goxbtc-price goes up a lot before gox implodes.  I suppose the difference is that with the CFD you get to make the bet each month and exit with a small loss if neither of these happened -- instead of being locked in until one does.

But it's still the same bet.

If gox implodes I'm pretty certain a lot of CFD customers will get screwed, and the financial regulators will not care.

[eldentyrell]

If gox implodes I'm pretty certain a lot of CFD customers will get screwed, and the financial regulators will not care.

From avatrade's terms and conditions:

There may be certain cases in which trading liquidity decreases, causing CFDs and Options in commodities, currencies metals and indices to cease, thereby preventing the liquidation of an adverse position which may result in a substantial financial loss.

In the event of default of one of our appointed credit institutions, AvaTrade does not accept responsibility and is not subject to any liability arising from losses to clients arising from such a default.

Yeah, I'm pretty sure that's what they're gonna point to after the goxpocalypse.

[sgbett]

It's the Lloyd's reinsurance-to-close scam, writ small.

So, in short, you are saying wire it all directly to gox

No, I'm saying that if gox folds you will get screwed either way.

Essentially you're betting the goxbtc-price goes up a lot before gox implodes.  I suppose the difference is that with the CFD you get to make the bet each month and exit with a small loss if neither of these happened -- instead of being locked in until one does.

But it's still the same bet.

If gox implodes I'm pretty certain a lot of CFD customers will get screwed, and the financial regulators will not care.

I merely joke. I know either way its a risky bet, fwiw I've taken it on (or at least I will when karpeles finishes his latte and sets about crediting my account), but not quite for $25k

[disclaimer201]

Gox is 100% untrustworthy.

[evolve]

Gox is All of the exchanges are 100% untrustworthy.

FTFY.

[DPoS]

The easiest way to get money into Gox is to sell doughnuts to that fat fucker running that rathole!!

[chesthing]

Give me $5k instead, I just saved you $20k!

[aminorex]

It would be difficult to imagine how Gox could be insolvent, given that they have had months to buy BTC at market prices and sell them at Gox prices, and now have had days to buy BTC at Gox prices and sell them at market prices.  The spreads have been very wide, and very profitable, and it is trivially easy for them to do this.  If they did not, the management should be committed to a psychiatric institution for care.

[Bit_Happy]

Gox lied, people cried.
The low price is tempting

[MatTheCat]

I merely joke. I know either way its a risky bet, fwiw I've taken it on (or at least I will when karpeles finishes his latte and sets about crediting my account), but not quite for $25k

    

So perhaps not of all of those thousands of BTC being sold on Gox in between 350 and 360 are fake volume?

[ScaryHash]

Good luck with that.

I have a bridge that leads to the ocean from Arizona to sell you.

Completely, 100% safe investment for the future, as it is well known that California will fall into the ocean, at some point in the next 100 million years.

Which is about the same time you will actually see your money deposited into Gox.

I'd go for the real estate if I were you, at least you're guaranteed to get sand at either end of that bridge. With Gox, you're guaranteed to get nothing.

[Oldminer]

Dude, Ive been fighting with gox support to get a mere 2BTC (or $2000) OUT of their exchange for EIGHT weeks and your looking at putting money IN?? 

[TERA]

Dude, Ive been fighting with gox support to get a mere 2BTC (or $2000) OUT of their exchange for EIGHT weeks and your looking at putting money IN?? 

Think of it like a double or nothing gamble. If gox support fixes the withdrawals, then he doubles his money. If they don't, then he gets nothing. However, it's possible that even if they never fix btc withdrawal, he may be able to get the fiat back so it's actually better than double or nothing.

[hostmaster]

biggest risk taking no risk

[Oldminer]

Dude, Ive been fighting with gox support to get a mere 2BTC (or $2000) OUT of their exchange for EIGHT weeks and your looking at putting money IN?? 

Think of it like a double or nothing gamble. If gox support fixes the withdrawals, then he doubles his money. If they don't, then he gets nothing. However, it's possible that even if they never fix btc withdrawal, he may be able to get the fiat back so it's actually better than double or nothing.

This will not end well.

[BitcoinHawker]

Uggg, it's the roach motel of exchanges.  Your money checks in but nothing checks out. LOL

 

[DieJohnny]

It would be difficult to imagine how Gox could be insolvent, given that they have had months to buy BTC at market prices and sell them at Gox prices, and now have had days to buy BTC at Gox prices and sell them at market prices.  The spreads have been very wide, and very profitable, and it is trivially easy for them to do this.  If they did not, the management should be committed to a psychiatric institution for care.

I think i am aligned with this thinking. I can't imagine that Gox hasn't taken advantage of this situation to close any financial holes they may be dealing with. I think the only way Gox bellies up at this point would be if they are indeed truly going to walk away with everyone's coins and if that was their intention it would have already happened.

[chesthing]

Dude, Ive been fighting with gox support to get a mere 2BTC (or $2000) OUT of their exchange for EIGHT weeks and your looking at putting money IN?? 

Think of it like a double or nothing gamble. If gox support fixes the withdrawals, then he doubles his money. If they don't, then he gets nothing. However, it's possible that even if they never fix btc withdrawal, he may be able to get the fiat back so it's actually better than double or nothing.

Worst. Advice. Ever.
If the op decides to spend $25k to Gox he deserves whatever he gets. I do feel bad for folks like Oldtimer who bought before it became obvious this was a black hole.