URGENT, Bitcoin is on the verge of collapse !!!

[Cryddit]

The Gox/Malleability thing has provided a short-term price drop that isn't reflected by the fundamantals

What fundamentals are you referring to?  This is a currency .. the price is determined by monetary velocity and speculation.  I'm not aware of anyone who has done a thorough job at estimating the non-speculated price of BTC.  That is, the price level maintained by the use of the currency to purchase goods.

You make a very good point.  The things I'm thinking of as fundamentals don't provide me with any easy way to measure their contribution to the whole.  But, I'm guessing, that's normal for such an immature market sector.

As far as "value provided by trade", I start by looking at the amount contributed to bank bottom lines by their VISA/Mastercard operations divided by the amount of money that the transfer each month via those operations, and multiplied by the ratio of credit card to bitcoin transaction fees.   Then I multiply that by the amount being transferred monthly according to the Blockchain.   That isn't much, but I'm also looking at expected growth, so yes I'm putting a higher speculative value on it.

Here is a list of reasons why I have "expected growth" in my calculations.  Admittedly it's hard to know exactly *how much* growth to expect, ie, what fraction of the market bitcoin will eventually capture.  But we can see the size of the market for money transfer at least, so there's a (very high) upper bound.

I consider Bitcoin acceptance at major retailers that have stockholders and file financial disclosure documents and quarterly reports to be a major "fundamental" in Bitcoin's value.  Mostly because I think that when overstock.com came out in its quarterlies and said it saved $2 million on transaction processing fees by using Bitcoin as opposed to credit card processing, that both verifies a value case and demonstrates its reality to the rest of the world.  People pay attention to that crap.

I consider the proliferation of Bitcoin ATM's (now in dozens of countries) to be a major "fundamental."  It means, at the very least, that the owners of these coffee shops, convenience stores, etc, are finding it worthwhile to devote floor space and electricity to bitcoin trade.

I'm encouraged by the recent (absolutely, bleakly, dismal) quarterly reports of Western Union, the leading money transmitter for remittances worldwide.  To the extent that WU shrinks, something has to take their place.  And relative to that, Bitcoin under a recent agreement is becoming a service available at 7-11 stores throughout Mexico, which is ridiculously good positioning for the remittance market that WU is increasingly failing to serve.

I'm also encouraged by recent legislation in the EU recognizing Bitcoin as a form of privately issued currency, and guidance from fiscal regulators in the US clarifying its position relative to the US tax code.  These both remove huge amounts of risk and uncertainty for companies dealing in bitcoin.   I'm relieved by FBI memos that explain Bitcoin in neutral terms rather than regarding it as evidence in itself of criminal intent.

I'm encouraged by the shutdowns of Silk Road 2, Sheep Market, etc, demonstrating to legislators, law enforcement and everybody else that bitcoin isn't some sort of magic that permits criminal organizations to operate with impunity.  If it were, then there'd be far more risk of it getting banned in most of the world's economic markets.

I'm encouraged by the BTCChina reopening and subsequent lack of arrests.  I cannot make any grammatical sense out of their laws, but it seems BTCChina is either engaged in a legal operation or is getting a pass on it.  It's very clear that Bankers can't trade Bitcoin in China, but that apparently isn't as much of a crippling factor as we thought when we were being pessimistic.

All of this has happened *since* the most recent high.   So I see the way getting more and more clear for Bitcoin to become mainstream, while everybody is distracted by FUDsters and short-term events like the Gox attack.  

[spookycloud]

Relax OP, If you are really worried sell your bitcoins now,put on your headphones and visit http://calm.com

Don't fucking spread panic.

I really like this post at first I thought it was a joke then I went to that website looks like a great meditation technique. Nature sounds along with beautiful backgrounds. Thanks was about to sell all my bitcoins for a second there.

[fonzie]

Thanks to all of you for spamming this facts only based thread. Would you please use the philosphical sub-forum for your discussions, thanks.
In here it´s about igorr´s charts and numbers!

[hamiltino]

I am glad that you both recognized the danger in investing in Bitcoin. I strongly advise you both to sell your 0.054 BTC each Smiley or whatever amount you have, leave the market and let the serious guys take over.

fuck off you snobbish elitist. People like you are the exact people i have been trying to get away from, moving from FIAT to Crypto.

[fonzie]

It seems like BTC-e is about to become the next MtGox. More and more people are havin problems with their BTC withdrawls.
That would explain the 25$ price difference to Stamp!
Igorr, what´s your opinion about that?

See here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=459464.0

[igorr]

It seems like BTC-e is about to become the next MtGox. More and more people are havin problems with their BTC withdrawls.
That would explain the 25$ price difference to Stamp!
Igorr, what´s your opinion about that?

See here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=459464.0

for now I do not know, but we must follow this topic.
Time will tell all.

[hamiltino]

OK THIS IS HOW IT WORKS FOR THE MENTALLY INCOMPATANT

CRYPTO IS HERE TO STAY...SHHHH...SHUTUP...SHHHH...THATS BETTER

THEIR WILL BE BETTER MORE EFFICIENT AND FEATURE RICH CRYPTOCURRENCIES THAT SOLVE ALOT OF THE PROBLEMS BITCOIN HAS....*beats reader with a stick*

BITCOIN WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME REDUNDANT BUT WILL BE IN OUR HISTORY BOOKS AS THE CRYPTOCURRENCY THAT STARTED IT ALL

[CoinThinker]

OK THIS IS HOW IT WORKS FOR THE MENTALLY INCOMPATANT

CRYPTO IS HERE TO STAY...SHHHH...SHUTUP...SHHHH...THATS BETTER

THEIR WILL BE BETTER MORE EFFICIENT AND FEATURE RICH CRYPTOCURRENCIES THAT SOLVE ALOT OF THE PROBLEMS BITCOIN HAS....*beats reader with a stick*

BITCOIN WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME REDUNDANT BUT WILL BE IN OUR HISTORY BOOKS AS THE CRYPTOCURRENCY THAT STARTED IT ALL

Well, you don't have much brain, don't you? I am using this language btw. ONLY because you used the same to me..

So let me explain you a very simple thing: if bitcoin goes to the history books ALL (I mean ALL) cryptocurrencies will go there forever. Everybody knows this... this is why governments are targettng ONLY bitcoin and not all the other coins, because they know: if bitcoin fails, ALL COINS will fail.
You need to realize that people invested BILLIONS of dollars into bitcoin (literally). It is probably one the biggest investment of our days. If that falls, after so many billions of dollars spent, who do you think will ever trust X-coin in our lifetime? Who do you think will invest another billions to Y-coins, or whatever?

You should check your reality-meter a little bit...

[hamiltino]

 Well, you don't have much brain, don't you? I am using this language btw. ONLY because you used the same to me..

So let me explain you a very simple thing: if bitcoin goes to the history books ALL (I mean ALL) cryptocurrencies will go there forever. Everybody knows this... this is why governments are targettng ONLY bitcoin and not all the other coins, because they know: if bitcoin fails, ALL COINS will fail.
You need to realize that people invested BILLIONS of dollars into bitcoin (literally). It is probably one the biggest investment of our days. If that falls, after so many billions of dollars spent, who do you think will ever trust X-coin in our lifetime? Who do you think will invest another billions to Y-coins, or whatever?

You should check your reality-meter a little bit...

That's an easy answer, their will be less people speculating on crypto-currencies (using it as a form of investment) and more people using it an actual means of exchange/payment processor. This is because it is overwhelmingly convenient and empowering to do so (having full control over ones money)

Their will be crypto-currencies that will able to remove price volatility, you better believe it.

And i never said bitcoin will go to $0, it will hold sentimental value like a rare antique.

[CoinThinker]

 Well, you don't have much brain, don't you? I am using this language btw. ONLY because you used the same to me..

So let me explain you a very simple thing: if bitcoin goes to the history books ALL (I mean ALL) cryptocurrencies will go there forever. Everybody knows this... this is why governments are targettng ONLY bitcoin and not all the other coins, because they know: if bitcoin fails, ALL COINS will fail.
You need to realize that people invested BILLIONS of dollars into bitcoin (literally). It is probably one the biggest investment of our days. If that falls, after so many billions of dollars spent, who do you think will ever trust X-coin in our lifetime? Who do you think will invest another billions to Y-coins, or whatever?

You should check your reality-meter a little bit...

That's an easy answer, their will be less people speculating on crypto-currencies (using it as a form of investment) and more people using it an actual means of exchange/payment processor. This is because it is overwhelmingly convenient and empowering to do so (having full control over ones money)

Their will be crypto-currencies that will able to remove price volatility, you better believe it. or will your ignorance make you miss the next train?

You are wrong.... the problem with this statement "more people using it an actual means of exchange/payment". The problem is that noone will exchange any goods for a currency which they don't trust. And if bitcoin will collapse then building up trust in ANY cryptocurrency, no matter how good that might be, how safe, etc. will be EXTREMLY HARD (impossible in the next decade for sure).

I do believe in Bitcoin and crypto-currencies in general (not all the crapcoins which show up every day, but some of the alternative currencies). And because I believe in this, I am working on the next generation of crypto-currencies as we speak. I have made a great concept for a currency which will defeat price volatility exactly (among many other problems which crypto currencies have). Problem is that from concept until making it happen it's a long way, because this will not be a simple copy-coin... it will change the rules of the games forever.

[hamiltino]

 Well, you don't have much brain, don't you? I am using this language btw. ONLY because you used the same to me..

So let me explain you a very simple thing: if bitcoin goes to the history books ALL (I mean ALL) cryptocurrencies will go there forever. Everybody knows this... this is why governments are targettng ONLY bitcoin and not all the other coins, because they know: if bitcoin fails, ALL COINS will fail.
You need to realize that people invested BILLIONS of dollars into bitcoin (literally). It is probably one the biggest investment of our days. If that falls, after so many billions of dollars spent, who do you think will ever trust X-coin in our lifetime? Who do you think will invest another billions to Y-coins, or whatever?

You should check your reality-meter a little bit...

That's an easy answer, their will be less people speculating on crypto-currencies (using it as a form of investment) and more people using it an actual means of exchange/payment processor. This is because it is overwhelmingly convenient and empowering to do so (having full control over ones money)

Their will be crypto-currencies that will able to remove price volatility, you better believe it. or will your ignorance make you miss the next train?

You are wrong.... the problem with this statement "more people using it an actual means of exchange/payment". The problem is that noone will exchange any goods for a currency which they don't trust. And if bitcoin will collapse then building up trust in ANY cryptocurrency, no matter how good that might be, how safe, etc. will be EXTREMLY HARD (impossible in the next decade for sure).

I do believe in Bitcoin and crypto-currencies in general (not all the crapcoins which show up every day, but some of the alternative currencies). And because I believe in this, I am working on the next generation of crypto-currencies as we speak. I have made a great concept for a currency which will defeat price volatility exactly (among many other problems which crypto currencies have). Problem is that from concept until making it happen it's a long way, because this will not be a simple copy-coin... it will change the rules of the games forever.

I didn't say bitcoin was going to collapse i said it will be made redundant.  it will hold sentimental value like a rare antique/used amongst a small niche.

And also don't take anything i said against you personally, the more emotionally disrupting my words are the more people take notice.

[knightcoin]

[..] bitcoin goes to the history books [.]

Troy (2004) quote:
Odysseus: If they ever tell my story let them say that I walked with giants. Men rise and fall like the winter wheat, but these names will never die. Let them say I lived in the time of Hector, tamer of horses. Let them say I lived in the time of Achilles.

[traderCJ]

I am working on the next generation of crypto-currencies as we speak. I have made a great concept for a currency which will defeat price volatility exactly (among many other problems which crypto currencies have). Problem is that from concept until making it happen it's a long way, because this will not be a simple copy-coin... it will change the rules of the games forever.

You and a lot of other people.  Should be interesting ..

[aminorex]

What fundamentals are you referring to?  This is a currency .. the price is determined by monetary velocity and speculation.  I'm not aware of anyone who has done a thorough job at estimating the non-speculated price of BTC.  That is, the price level maintained by the use of the currency to purchase goods.

The BTC velocity is roughly 4 during January (as compared to 1.5 for USD) which puts the fundamental value of a BTC at 640USD.
Coincidentally, as I write, the price (on Bitstamp) is roughly equal to the fundamental value.  

[traderCJ]

What fundamentals are you referring to?  This is a currency .. the price is determined by monetary velocity and speculation.  I'm not aware of anyone who has done a thorough job at estimating the non-speculated price of BTC.  That is, the price level maintained by the use of the currency to purchase goods.

The BTC velocity is roughly 4 during January (as compared to 1.5 for USD) which puts the fundamental value of a BTC at 640USD.
Coincidentally, as I write, the price (on Bitstamp) is roughly equal to the fundamental value.  

What is your method for calculating BTC velocity?

[Cryddit]

What is your method for calculating BTC velocity?

That much at least is simple.  You get the total movement of bitcoins from the blockchain, and divide by the number of bitcoins currently in existence. 

[JimboToronto]

the more emotionally disrupting my words are the more people take notice.

Yep. People take notice of homophobic vulgar personal attacks and those who make them.

[ph111]

  Glad i listened to calm.com whilst reading that…
  Does anyone think Gox has any coins to give back or sell and that they would actually sell at the price shown come on there a bunch of scammers so no need to worry there…
  And as if someone with half a brain really dumped 4000 coins in 1 go it was his cat !  

  Thanks to calm dot com i didn't panic whilst reading that thread i still have all my coins apart from the 1.07BTC stolen at coinmarket.io at least it wasn't Karples i only had 0.4 stolen by him 

   Still holding 

[JimboToronto]

URGENT, this thread maybe be deleted,
This is my thread which administrators constantly erased, without any explanation !!!

Gee. I wonder why? 

[igorr]

URGENT, this thread maybe be deleted,
This is my thread which administrators constantly erased, without any explanation !!!

Gee. I wonder why? 

I do not know but twice was deleted without explanation.