Bitcoin Forum
December 10, 2016, 09:04:19 AM *
News: To be able to use the next phase of the beta forum software, please ensure that your email address is correct/functional.
 
   Home   Help Search Donate Login Register  
Pages: [1] 2 3 »  All
  Print  
Author Topic: Exchanges shutting down  (Read 4009 times)
Nagle
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1204


View Profile WWW
October 18, 2011, 08:24:02 AM
 #1

Take a look at all those black bars on Bitcoin Charts.  ExchB's shutdown was the big news today, but several of the little guys have given it up recently as well. We're down to Mt. Gox, Tradehill, and Btc-E now.

Now look at the volumes in dollars.  The standard 0.6% commission rate yields about $8000 per month for Mt. Gox, $810 per month for Tradehill, and $384 a month for Btc-E.  And that's a maximum; many big traders get discounts.
 
Tradehill apparently has a real organization and staff, but revenue is comparable to a half-time job at McDonalds. That can't last. Btc-E, forget it. Mt. Gox has some business in other currencies, but the numbers aren't that big.

The end is in sight.
1481360659
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1481360659

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1481360659
Reply with quote  #2

1481360659
Report to moderator
1481360659
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1481360659

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1481360659
Reply with quote  #2

1481360659
Report to moderator
1481360659
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1481360659

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1481360659
Reply with quote  #2

1481360659
Report to moderator
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
1481360659
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1481360659

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1481360659
Reply with quote  #2

1481360659
Report to moderator
zby
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1431


View Profile
October 18, 2011, 08:28:24 AM
 #2

MtGox has a trial in France - anyone can guess the costs?  The office in Shibuya must also cost a lot - this is I think the most expensive district in Tokyo.
SlaveInDebt
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 701


Your Minion


View Profile
October 18, 2011, 08:56:26 AM
 #3

Trade Hill @ $810 a month is full time at McDonalds. BTCe is at part time McDonalds employment.
I take it you make a modest living.

The end is some where.

"A banker is a fellow who lends you his umbrella when the sun is shining, but wants it back the minute it begins to rain." - Mark Twain
ElectricMucus
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1540


Drama Junkie


View Profile
October 18, 2011, 09:28:13 AM
 #4

For all I care they could all shut down.

A decentralized exchange method will come up.

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
kokjo
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1050

You are WRONG!


View Profile
October 18, 2011, 09:31:32 AM
 #5

A decentralized exchange method will come up.
no not really. how do you decentralize the holding of USD or EUR?
you can't. except for slow expensive wire transfers, or person-to-person.

"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves and wiser people so full of doubts." -Bertrand Russell
old_engineer
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 387


View Profile
October 18, 2011, 09:31:48 AM
 #6

Now look at the volumes in dollars.  The standard 0.6% commission rate yields about $8000 per month for Mt. Gox, $810 per month for Tradehill, and $384 a month for Btc-E.  And that's a maximum; many big traders get discounts.
Average volume for the past month looks like about $150k USD/day, which at 0.5% commission, is $750/day, or $22500 per month.  Are you sure you were looking at volume in dollars, and not volume in bitcoins?  $8000 per month / .006 = $1.3M per month, and they had $600k in currency volume yesterday alone.

$22500 per month is enough to pay $5k for rent (it's a shared office), $5k for hosting fees, and a living wage for 3 people (I'm assuming they can pay employees equity for the rest).  They could have easily paid cash all their hardware back when they were making $5,000 - $10,000 per day back in May/June/July.

Sure looks to me like Bitcoin can support at least one exchange, even though it's no longer the heady days of June.  And they could have easily taken $250k in investment money in June had they wanted to; I'm sure their phone rang with offers, and they had the choice whether to accept it or not.
ElectricMucus
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1540


Drama Junkie


View Profile
October 18, 2011, 09:38:27 AM
 #7

A decentralized exchange method will come up.
no not really. how do you decentralize the holding of USD or EUR?
you can't. except for slow expensive wire transfers, or person-to-person.
Ideally a web of trust cryptoheaven along with sovereign tribal entities based upon community (dark)nets replacing traditional nation-states.

One can always dream Tongue
But anything along the lines some magnitudes less sophisticated would suffice.

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
nmat
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 602


View Profile
October 18, 2011, 09:40:14 AM
 #8

Average volume for the past month looks like about $150k USD/day, which at 0.5% commission, is $750/day, or $22500 per month.  Are you sure you were looking at volume in dollars, and not volume in bitcoins?  $8000 per month / .006 = $1.3M per month, and they had $600k in currency volume yesterday alone.

$22500 per month is enough to pay $5k for rent (it's a shared office), $5k for hosting fees, and a living wage for 3 people (I'm assuming they can pay employees equity for the rest).  They could have easily paid cash all their hardware back when they were making $5,000 - $10,000 per day back in May/June/July.

Sure looks to me like Bitcoin can support at least one exchange, even though it's no longer the heady days of June.  And they could have easily taken $250k in investment money in June had they wanted to; I'm sure their phone rang with offers, and they had the choice whether to accept it or not.

I believe you are correct, but we need to have more than one exchange. At least I like to have options. I often trade at CampBX for example and their volume is much lower (they are currently earning around $170 per month I think).
kokjo
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1050

You are WRONG!


View Profile
October 18, 2011, 09:41:55 AM
 #9

A decentralized exchange method will come up.
no not really. how do you decentralize the holding of USD or EUR?
you can't. except for slow expensive wire transfers, or person-to-person.
Ideally a web of trust cryptoheaven along with sovereign tribal entities based upon community (dark)nets replacing traditional nation-states.

One can always dream Tongue
But anything along the lines some magnitudes less sophisticated would suffice.
is'nt that what bitcoin, tor and freenet is?

"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves and wiser people so full of doubts." -Bertrand Russell
ElectricMucus
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1540


Drama Junkie


View Profile
October 18, 2011, 09:44:17 AM
 #10

A decentralized exchange method will come up.
no not really. how do you decentralize the holding of USD or EUR?
you can't. except for slow expensive wire transfers, or person-to-person.
Ideally a web of trust cryptoheaven along with sovereign tribal entities based upon community (dark)nets replacing traditional nation-states.

One can always dream Tongue
But anything along the lines some magnitudes less sophisticated would suffice.
is'nt that what bitcoin, tor and freenet is?

I'm talking about the physical layer here, the internet can be shut down, WLAN & optical direct joint access cannot. But that's still overshoot.

Something like I like to sell 10 BTC and would like 30USD someone in my area want to do the opposite, the system provides a location & we meet.

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
kokjo
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1050

You are WRONG!


View Profile
October 18, 2011, 09:46:15 AM
 #11

the internet can be shut down.
no it can not, a country can close all connections, from it self, but not shut the whole thing down. simply not possible.

"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves and wiser people so full of doubts." -Bertrand Russell
ElectricMucus
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1540


Drama Junkie


View Profile
October 18, 2011, 09:47:50 AM
 #12

the internet can be shut down.
no it can not, a country can close all connections, from it self, but not shut the whole thing down. simply not possible.
Correction the last mile isps can be. The cronies would still have the datacenters and international fiber lines.

Also the physical exchange of values can be buffered/delayed and managed by the system. Bin-packing algos and stuff.

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
old_engineer
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 387


View Profile
October 18, 2011, 10:01:39 AM
 #13

For all I care they could all shut down.

A decentralized exchange method will come up.

There's also a good chance bitcoin will be prohibited under US FINCEN rules, which would cause the whole thing to move underground.

But rather than a decentralized techno-darknet, I think the replacement would be more like how drugs are distributed now, with a shadow distribution network.

Wouldn't it be ironic if weed were regulated and taxed like alcohol, available for purchase in stores, but bitcoins were illegal and had to be bought in person?  "Sorry honey, I'll be home late, I'm meeting up with my bitcoin dealer after work".
kokjo
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1050

You are WRONG!


View Profile
October 18, 2011, 10:03:03 AM
 #14

For all I care they could all shut down.

A decentralized exchange method will come up.

There's also a good chance bitcoin will be prohibited under US FINCEN rules, which would cause the whole thing to move underground.

But rather than a decentralized techno-darknet, I think the replacement would be more like how drugs are distributed now, with a shadow distribution network.

Wouldn't it be ironic if weed were regulated and taxed like alcohol, available for purchase in stores, but bitcoins were illegal and had to be bought in person?  "Sorry honey, I'll be home late, I'm meeting up with my bitcoin dealer after work".
FUCK THE US.

im from denmark, and mtgox is in japan. Tongue

can't touch me!

"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves and wiser people so full of doubts." -Bertrand Russell
old_engineer
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 387


View Profile
October 18, 2011, 10:13:46 AM
 #15

FUCK THE US.

im from denmark, and mtgox is in japan. Tongue

can't touch me!
About 1/3 of bitcoin hosts are in the USA:
http://bitcoinstatus.rowit.co.uk/countryHosts.html

If it happens, you'll be affected, albeit indirectly.  Maybe we can get Occupy Wall Street to make Bitcoin legalization one of their demands. Smiley
fivebells
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 462


View Profile
October 18, 2011, 10:30:57 AM
 #16

FUCK THE US.

im from denmark, and mtgox is in japan. Tongue

can't touch me!
Your or Bin Laden. Smiley
cbeast
Donator
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1722

Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.


View Profile
October 18, 2011, 11:30:20 AM
 #17

For all I care they could all shut down.

A decentralized exchange method will come up.

There's also a good chance bitcoin will be prohibited under US FINCEN rules, which would cause the whole thing to move underground.

But rather than a decentralized techno-darknet, I think the replacement would be more like how drugs are distributed now, with a shadow distribution network.

Wouldn't it be ironic if weed were regulated and taxed like alcohol, available for purchase in stores, but bitcoins were illegal and had to be bought in person?  "Sorry honey, I'll be home late, I'm meeting up with my bitcoin dealer after work".

If I buy bitcoin with Euro in Japan, then how is FINCEN involved?

Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
ElectricMucus
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1540


Drama Junkie


View Profile
October 18, 2011, 11:40:20 AM
 #18

Remember 2 things people: DCMA (well most probably weren't even intersted in 'this stuff' back then)
and the US Patriot Act.

Both have their equivalent all over Europe and the Asian industrialized nations heck even the whole world. Don't be that naive  Angry 

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
kokjo
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1050

You are WRONG!


View Profile
October 18, 2011, 11:43:07 AM
 #19

Remember 2 things people: DCMA (well most probably weren't even intersted in 'this stuff' back then)
and the US Patriot Act.

Both have their equivalent all over Europe and the Asian industrialized nations heck even the whole world. Don't be that naive  Angry 
link to the EU Patriot Act, please?

"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves and wiser people so full of doubts." -Bertrand Russell
ElectricMucus
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1540


Drama Junkie


View Profile
October 18, 2011, 11:44:25 AM
 #20

Remember 2 things people: DCMA (well most probably weren't even intersted in 'this stuff' back then)
and the US Patriot Act.

Both have their equivalent all over Europe and the Asian industrialized nations heck even the whole world. Don't be that naive  Angry 
link to the EU Patriot Act, please?
I don't know what it is called where you live, every nation has it's own implementation.

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
Pages: [1] 2 3 »  All
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!